I’ve never understood Ballardmania. Especially on weekends it just takes forever to get into or out of there, and Metro service is truly a cut below.

I commented on this article driectly tot he writer specifying that the couple she chose to write about DID NOT HAVE KIDS.

Had they had kids they would have not moved into the Seattle School District.

Another reason people commute long distances is for better education for their children. The good schools unfortunately are not in the city’s center. We live in Ravenna and my son still is not getting a good public school education!

Parents who care about their children want them in safer neighborhoods with other families and good schools. And will sacrifice the commute times or higher gas bills.

We’re moving – and our commutes are about to triple. But my children need a better place to grow up.

Because we all know that real estate agents are good at predicting the future. :)

Yep, I 100% agree that the RE professionals are pretty one-sided in which statistics they look at when gauging the future. Sounds like another group of people I know :-)

Keep in mind that many families have 2+ people commuting. My parents (live in Sammamish) pay around $700/month in gas, which is a significant amount of $.

I doubt gas is the **only** factor people would consider making a move, but I don’t see why you’re so opposed to it being a factor at all.

Also, homes in town are often smaller and carry fewer energy costs, have better access to public transport, etc. We pay very little to heat our 2-bedroom house and spend very little on gas each month. Sure–we could probably get a bigger home for the money in Lynnwood, but why would we want to?

Like someone else pointed out in a prior post, generally people establish a buying range and then prioritize. We knew what we wanted to spend and the choice b/w a smaller house in Ravenna or a bigger house in Lynnwood (or similar) was clear.

Mostly? Again, exaggerate much? What % of units would you say are currently up for sale?

“I predict it will be a ghost town for a while and the future phases stalled indefinitely”

I predict your predictions are wild-eyed. (And I’m one of the most ferocious real estate bears out there.)

People who think north Seattle is “nice” and south Seattle is not have usually never been to south Seattle.

Drive through Mount Baker, Lakewood, and Seward Park and tell me they’re not as “nice” as anywhere in the north end. Certainly put middlebrow neighborhoods like Lake City, Greenwood, Crown Hill and north Green Lake to shame. Probably on par with the froofier parts of Wedgewood, not quite as highfalutin’ as Madison Park (though there are pockets of Mt. Baker and Seward that are extremely tony)

As far as I’ve seen the shabbiest parts of the Rainier Valley and Georgetown are about as shabby as anything up on the wastelands of N. Aurora. The only difference is that the people in the Valley are more likely to have brown skin than the ones up by Aurora and 130th. Draw what conclusion you will.

Kirkland *is* a city. Seattle used to have cougars and bears before they built it.

Why not encourage companies to set up in Kirkland? Didn’t google or Yahoo or somebody open an office in Kirkland? Maybe we should direct all their employees to live in the city of Seattle in North Ballard?

It left a weird taste in my mouth too, but I think that’s just because I don’t like the new construction high density thing too much. To each his/her own.

The thing about the North Seattle/South Seattle thing is that people on the nice/north side get to talk about how they’d never live in South Seattle, but they get to benefit from the census data of the south because it’s all the same city.

So whenever you hear someone from Greenlake saying “Seattle is much more diverse than Bellevue”, they’re not lying when you look at the census data. They just happen to live in an area that’s “nice”, but benefit from all the poor and/or brown people in the other area of town they’ll never go to. Unfortunately for those that live in Bellevue they don’t get such similar statistical trickery as they don’t have a crappy area of town to help them gain moral superiority at dinner parties.

Some very quick research indicates that Bellevue, WA is 72% white whereas ZIP code 98103 (Wallingford/Greenlake) is 85% white. OMG, everyone in Wallingford is racist because they don’t live around enough non-whites! I lived in Wallingford at one point and didn’t feel racist, but maybe I was?

I updated the article with a correction. I also responded to you in more depth on your Livejournal.

So if you were living in Issaquah, and decided you better move downtown so you could walk to work, what’s going to happen if you get laid off, or voluntarily change jobs to one in say, Redmond?

Then you’ve paid (more than likely) quite a bit more for your home, only to go back to a long commute that is still going to cost you in gas if you choose to drive.

I don’t know, the whole price of gas argument doesn’t make much sense to me relative to choosing where to live.

Not that I’m typical, but I’m not that atypical either. I live in N Seattle and I commute to the eastside daily (as a previous post cites, not all jobs are downtown, I just wish they were *grin*). This is a 20-mile commute each way. I have a decently efficient car (not a Prius, but not a Suburban). A $2 increase in gas prices, say from $2.50/gallon (which people would kill for) to say, $4.50/gallon is about the equivalent to me buying a grande mocha at Starbucks every workday (not even everyday, just 5 days a week). I’m sure there are plenty of people out there that do this. So those folks looking to move because of high gas prices should just get the free coffee at work and all their problems will be solved. :)

Of course, that being said I think the suburbs are a bad thing in general and love the fact that we’ve voluntarily decided to curb development into areas where cougars and bears feast on your pets and then are looked at as the enemy. Seattle needs more density in order for mass transit to succeed especially well and therefore welcome folks to move from Kirkland to the city limits for whatever their reasons may be.

The Warjones’ initial plan had been to spread 4,750 homes and 1.8 million square feet of commercial space over 2,250 acres of timberland once owned by Burlington Northern.
…
In a compromise worked out between the developer and then-King County Executive Gary Locke, Port Blakely agreed to trim its scheme to 3,250 “living units” and to squeeze them into just 490 acres, all on the urban side of the county’s new line.

Re economic stratification: no, I don’t think it’s bad. I think it exists and that it is not static. (i.e. I come from a low strat and have moved higher and hope to move higher still.) I choose not to live in White Center for a reason. But what nicer neighborhood (even with the profligate financing of recent years) is not going to be stratified?

In any event, it’s a safe, open, cheerful environment with lots of green areas. I don’t know where all this venom is coming from everyone.

Dave

Give me a break, I used to live in Issaquah proper not very long ago. The highlands was the glimmer in someones eye maybe 10 years ago, but the initial plan when they actually started to level the place and build the new I-90 offramps was to create another Klahanie/Lakemont type of development. Meaning, large detached homes on normal sized lots spread over a huge space and built in many phases. It wasn’t until the bubble heated up in 2003 that the developers decided to build a bajillion high density homes on 1/4th the original land size and charge the same price. Sorry if you bought into it, but the sea of for sale signs and for rent listings on Craigslist in that development and Snoqualmie Ridge shows you its mostly inhabited by investors. I predict it will be a ghost town for a while and the future phases stalled indefinitely, similar to Montlake and the early 90’s RE implosion. That development was not high density, but sat with paved and lit roads for nearly 10 years before actually filling back up.

Okay – I stand corrected. No offense meant. It did not appear very diverse – but then again i don’t live there. Proabably not racial segregated – though certainly economically segregated. The times I was there I saw people of caucasian, South Asian (India), or SE Asian backgorunds. – and nothing else. It looked more like Canada than any other place in the States I’ve seen (Canada has a history which is the primary cause for that – I can expand if anyone wants that). I’m glad the area is more diverse than what I saw.

But i was curious about this comment:

“Now, are any of them poor, no. But that’s not a negative.”

Is not economic stratifcation a bad thing? The section 8 housing is a good step – have they broken ground yet?

I have to say that IH left a bad taste in my mouth. It gave me a very strong isolationist/exclusionary vibe of the “we’ll take care of our own and let the rest of the area rot” type that I have seen in other areas of the country. Much stronger that the North Seattle/South Seattle thing we see over here.

Anyways Shaq – not criticizing – but I wanted to ask someone who lives there. Sociologically and psychologically it is an intersting place. We can discuss it more if you wish.

Dave

Read this.

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/02/22/73-gentrification/

Remember, you live on the Eastside. There are only white people there, and you are not experiencing true culture. :)

Investor "chocolate"box? IH was started 10 years ago and has had residents since then. It’s much more community oriented than any other place I’ve ever lived.

Some of you people need to STFU until you become less ignorant. You’re making yourselves look as bad as the bubble-deniers.

- 90% investors, people buying for 2 years to “move up”, etc
- 10% people who want to live there for more than 2 years

These are perfect investor "chocolate"box communities, and also perfect for people who had to “drive until you buy” and never had any intention of staying past the capital gains tax window. They remind me very much of the sprawling high density developments built here in Silicon Valley, often way away from the job centers. Areas like Stockton are filled with them, and now have foreclosure rates that are insane (like 50%) and highest in the country. Very very few people really /wanted/ to live there long term, most bought because they were peer pressured or were investors.

For the same $ amount versus a place in Seattle, you DO get a lot more space. Your house is bigger and you do have a yard. Perhaps living in New York so long affects my evaluation of it. i.e. I lived AND worked in Manhattan and my commute was still 1.5 to 2X as long as my commute from IH to Seattle. Like I said – it feels like I live in the country, yet my commute is ~25 one way. Not a bad trade-off.

IH is definitely all new construction – which I like, so I guess to some people that seems “Truman Show” or “Stepford wives”. To me, it looks crisp and clean and new.

Re “gated community”: I’m not sure what you’re talking about. There are sidewalks and trails all over the place in IH (both intra and inter) There are no gates. And the main road has a speed limit of 30MPH going down to 25MPH.

Re economic integration: again, not sure what you are talking about or looking for. There are rental apartment complexes on up to $2M + view homes. The moms in my 15 month olds playgroup belong to all groups except the $2M.

Re racial integration: again, not sure what you are talking about or how you could possibly know enough to render this assessment. My kid’s weekly play circle includes: Indians, Egyptians, Africans, moslems, Jews, Christians and atheists. At 15 months he has already eaten home-cooked ethnic cuisine of these varieties and more purely due to the relationships formed from living in IH. What’s more, I live on a cul-de-sac that features: whites, Chinese, Indians, Malaysians and gays. Now, are any of them poor, no. But that’s not a negative. (They are adding a HUGE Section 8 housing piece right down by the Park and Ride.)

I’ve got to say Issaquah Highlands reminded me of the Truman show or an oldie version of the twilight zone/stepford wives.

Shaq – you realize you live in a “gated community” right? If the roads going to it are 40-50 mph roads and there are no sidewalks going to the community it is essentally a gated community, right? It may not have the walls but inaccessibility is as much of a gate as a physical wall. I didn’t see any economic integration (and I’ve been there a couple of times) whatsoever and hardly any racial integration of many separate groups of people – ususally economically disadvantaged people.

I thought my buddy’s place in Sammamish was pretty monochromatic – but IH makes his place look like an urban center.

Seriously – what’s it like living there?
Dave

softwareengineer: where do we get arsenic level data for different areas? thanks

I don’t think it is like the articles about people trading in their SUVs. In that case, you have actual statistics across the entire industry. You have people saying there are X% more SUVs traded in than this time last year, and Y months of inventory compared to Z months last year. Prices are A% down, etc. Of course, those articles are always littered with anecdotes too. Perhaps we’ll speak with “Bob” who couldn’t trade in his Ford Expedition.

The difference with these articles is that it’s ALL anecdote and no statistics/facts. Because it’s hard to get facts for this, it’s “ok” to just use anecdotes and to speak with real estate agents. Because we all know that real estate agents are good at predicting the future. :)

It may not be similar, but it seems to have a lot of the things you said you liked about IH. Obviously, everyone has their preference and IH is yours – that’s fine by me.

By which % more would you see the IH listings exceed the rest of the area?

I am glad you like the IH. I guess it just isn’t for everyone.

I have the same reaction to IH – why live so “far out” if you’re not going to truly get space. But we have really close friends that moved there. For the wife, the “newness” of it was super appealing (she comes from Mexico, and doesn’t equate old houses with anything but being rundown). Plus there are lots of families like theirs around.

It really is a case of “to each their own”. Some people would never live in a condo (my parents, for example) – too much feeling of “shared space” or being “closed in”. Other people think owning a SFH is ridiculous (maintaining everything yourself, etc).

And to answer Tim’s question, I don’t think of the gas price articles as being particularly literal. They may be written that way, but they’re indicative of a trend. Just like the articles about people trading in their gas guzzling SUVs. It’s not about reporting on the facts behind it (for better or worse), but on what it indicates about how people are feeling. Just like the whole notion of “consumer confidence”.

So you’re saying that IH has *more* payment shock and/or investor properties than the rest of Issaquah, which is why there are more properties for sale as a proportion of the overall housing stock?

I personally would not live in Klahanie and I don’t think of it as a very similar development to IH.

I am glad you like the IH. I guess it just isn’t for everyone.

Back to my earlier question though: why are so many places for sale up there?

That’s the point, it isn’t everywhere. You live in a city that has significantly less density than your particular location. Most areas in Issaquah have average lot sizes of .25 acres and Klahanie and similar areas are lots perhaps half that size. IH, on the other hand, has taken the density to a local extreme.

“I like it because the commute is easy on I-90; I work in downtown Seattle and feel like that’s very close, but I can also start hiking Mount Si in 20 minutes if I want to. A 3 minute drive puts me on I-90, yet we often remark how it feels almost like we live in the country. We see deer and bears fairly frequently. It’s quiet at night. There are parks all throughout the development that are very kid friendly, many with awesome views. (My house is actually on a park, but I can also walk to 5 others in 5 minutes or less.) ”

All these things are true for pretty much every house in Issaquah, with the exception of parks. Areas like Klahanie also have parks. I live in Sammamish – there are many parks. I don’t have kids, but if I did I would be more than happy with the park situation here.

I think you may be trying to justify your decision based on positive factors which are also present in most other locations in Issaquah or surrounding areas. If you like the area, that’s great, but based on my own experience of showing people the area it appeals to a very small minority of buyers.

Of course not. The precise reason for the number of homes for sale is the housing bubble (payment shock, “investor” properties” etc.) I post on a community forum for IH and let’s just say that the people on there are totally Panglossian and are in for a rude awakening. For awhile, I was persona non grata on there because I would not let them get away with their relentless RE cheerleading. Some of the residents are realtors, and anytime they would start their spiel, I would smack them down (becomingly increasingly vicious because I feel like their advice is paid too much attention by the uninformed, and thus the consequences are potentially big.)

My continual question to the residents is: Now that you’ve bought your IH property in March of 2007 on the advice of your realtor that “now is a great time to buy”, in which format will he/she be rebating back to you the enormous mark-to-market loss you have now taken?

The vast majority of the properties up there are back to late 2005 prices, if not worse.

I appologize for any insult you may have gleaned from my earlier post. Let’s just say that the Issaquah Highlands would not appeal to me. If I was going to live farther out I would definitely want more space (i.e. a yard).

By the way, seeing as how you live in the highlands, do you have any insights as to why so many of the homes are for sale? Is this just the normal volume of listings?

I wonder if the builders have been increasing prices on newer units recently?

This couple (both of whom appear to work in Seattle) may further be able to get by on just one car, which would save them $5K-$10K + per year, over and above the gas price per se (licensing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, payments and/or saving for a replacement vehicle, garaging, etc.).

I think it probably pencils out more or less instantly.

0.1%

I work from home and my wife works 5 miles from home. We live in Sammamish. Most of our gasoline usage is on the weekends heading out to mountains or friend’s houses. We mostly drive a PNWSUV: Subaru Outback.

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I live there and think it’s great (last place I lived before IH was in Belltown and then NYC before that.) The homes are dense, but that’s everywhere.

I like it because the commute is easy on I-90; I work in downtown Seattle and feel like that’s very close, but I can also start hiking Mount Si in 20 minutes if I want to. A 3 minute drive puts me on I-90, yet we often remark how it feels almost like we live in the country. We see deer and bears fairly frequently. It’s quiet at night. There are parks all throughout the development that are very kid friendly, many with awesome views. (My house is actually on a park, but I can also walk to 5 others in 5 minutes or less.)

It’s not just a random development – it actually has been fairly well planned. There is a sense of community. There is a community gardening area where people grow all kinds of stuff and share ideas. There is a community center and retail that is owned by residents of the community.

The “High Streets” retail development has been annoyingly delayed, several times, but Central Market just signed on to build a store in the development. There’s a Cafe Ladro, a wine bar, etc. already (all within walking distance.)

In short, it’s not for everyone, but I certainly wouldn’t paint it with some broad suburban brush. Your original statement boiling it down to merely yard size and parking is condescending and ignorant IMO.

I know this is going to sound absurd, but I don’t believe gasoline is “more expensive”. Instead it is “much less cheap”. The reason I make the distinction is that people have made vehicle choices in the last decade or so based on hyper-cheap gasoline. People commonly bought 15MPG SUVs/Pickups *and* bought houses in the suburbs.

They didn’t buy these vehicles because they were the best MPG available, or because they were much cheaper. Dodge and others have very cheap family sedans available that get approximately 30MPG. If gasoline was still “cheap” at $2 a gallon (with a 15MPG pickup) then it will once again be “cheap” at $4 with a 30MPG sedan.

Gas prices cause problems when they go up too quickly because you can’t make a car buying decision this fast, as most people will be stuck with their pickup for a year or more due to financing, etc. However, the high prices will make them buy more efficient cars next time, as was demonstrated by the recent earnings reports from all the manufacturers.

If gas prices go up to $8 a gallon, then we start to really have problems because the technology isn’t yet with us. We’d need 60MPG to make that kind of gasoline “cheap” and I think we’re realistically at about 45MPG with the Prius, and that’s not a cheap car.

I completely agree. If you have a 15MPG pickup/SUV then your choices of a better MPG vehicle are endless. I’m fortunate in that I work from home, so I don’t need to care about the mileage of my 16MPG SUV, but I assure you that if I got a job where I did a decent commute I would immediately get out there and get a more efficient car. I don’t care that my SUV isn’t worth much any more, it’s a 2001 model anyway.

I’d probably buy a Prius or a Honda Fit or Camry hybrid or something like that. That’ll half my fuel bills immediately, or more so if I’m gentle with the Prius. And that’s with today’s technology! I look forward to the future headlines:

“New Chevy Volt causes spike in suburban house prices”
“Condo dwellers flee towns and are seeking electrical outlets and garages for their new cars”

This whole gas price debate reminds me of the “that’s it, I’m moving to Canada” crowd. Sure, you can always find someone that *did* move to Canada when (insert political candidate) won some election, but most didn’t. Most just "female dog"ed about it and then got on with life.

When we factored in what would have been a higher monthly payment to buy vs. our current rent, plus increased gas payment, plus increased wear on our car, we’d be paying a lot more per month than we would finding a much smaller but similarly priced house in our target area, close to work.

But “closer in” to us is not Seattle, it’s Bothell. :) And we scrapped our buying plans anyhow… but our goal is still to live closer to work, for gas prices as well as quality of life.

Exactly right. If you’re the kind of person that wants to live away from urban areas (like I am) you’re very unlikely to want to live in the Issaquah Highlands. If you’re OK with density, then why not live closer to Bellevue/downtown/whatever. Or live in “downtown” Issaquah in a townhouse there – it’s actually quite a cute little area. In addition, the properties out there are insanely overpriced for what you get.

I think the Highlands appeals to so small of a segment of buyers anyway, and they built too many houses. Prices there are going down fast.

One thing that it great there is the park n’ ride is so close. Transit to downtown Seattle (if that’s where you’re going) is actually very good and very convenient.

Issaquah Highlands and Snoqualmie Ridge are suffering because they were largely built and sold during the peak bubble years, and relied on easy financing. They’re mostly younger buyers who often stretched to get into a home. Once the resets and option arms run their course those areas will experience a real collapse. After all who would want to live so far out from even Bellevue, in such a dense development?