That’s definitely not too much information. Thanks for enlightening me.

:)

Had I known there was already a tool out there, I probably wouldn’t have built this one.

Hope I didn’t come across as trying to discourage you. I just figured if you were going to the effort, you might as well know what was there already. The multi-market comparison doesn’t seem to work at Paper Money – and your graphing is much cooler.

I do like being able to index all the compared markets to 100 as an option there

Actually, talking about former USSR economy, I can tell from my own experience (Russia).

The prevailing attitude was “do not trust your government, ever. If you have money now, you better spend it now, because tomorrow it might worth nothing because of inflation or bank collapse” And surprisingly, thinking about retirement you still had to rely on government, because there was no way to save on decent retirement, other than building some country house (dacha), where you can grow some food for yourself. This is how it was 15-20 years ago. Now, situation is very different, but attitude toward savings is basically the same. I do believe that America in general got into economic trouble with spending beyond their means, but comparing very fundamental things: trust to the government (do not laugh here, I am serious), and general belief that hard work is a good thing which can lead to the personal economical stability will help to overcome this economic difficulty.

It is based on the OFHEO data. However, Global Insight adjusted it to be a little more accurate.

“House prices pertain to median values for single-family dwelling units and are based on the 2000 Census of Housing. That point-intime Census estimate is then extrapolated, based on price indices published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Because OFHEO has acknowledged that these price indices overstate increases when refinance activity is strong, we further adjust the data to correct for this influence.”

Had I known there was already a tool out there, I probably wouldn’t have built this one. Mine is arguably more accurate though due to the Global Insight adjustments. It was fun to build, so I’ll probably build a few more. High quality data is plentiful. I’m currently editing some rock videos, so I might not get to it right away though.

The data is from a leading economic research firm called Global Insight.

http://www.globalinsight.com/

Does anyone know what the typical hit a bank will take on a short sale? I’m interested in a house that the owner owes $458,000 on but has listed for $325,000. Any input would be appreciated.

If it is, there’s a pretty good tool for this already available at http://www.papereconomy.com/HPI.aspx

We are living in interesting times. I’ve been talking about the coming economic crash so much lately that my GF won’t let me buy my dreamhome that just got discounted from $499k to $325k. I might have to lighten up a little bit.

You have to leave a space between the comma and the state abbreviation

I agree with you WRT softwareengineers posts being a bit over the top. However, I don’t think you will find a single person on this board that cheers the utter destruction of our economy. As much as we like to argue about house prices (condo and townhome prices not so much)…I think that the bubble blogs are where you will find the people that are trying to think one (if not two) steps ahead of the curve…and not just about “house prices”. Right now, I think that both BH’s and HB’s are both concerned about the “bigger picture” and really don’t have much more to offer than theoretical situations and outcomes.

I don’t know your background, but I’m assuming that you come from an educated family from an Eastern Bloc or possibly Former USSR (solely based on the spelling of your name). Don’t worry…no xenophobia here. Perhaps you could provide insight about what it was like for their economies, societies etc. in their transitional periods? I think that we are heading into a time where there will be a whole lotta change when it comes to the “American Lifestyle” compared with the last 25 years or so. Forgive me if I am being presumptive, but I for one would be fascinated to hear first hand accounts.

WRT where to put your “money”…I thought the same thing when Indymac went under. My dad had a 100k CD there. He’ll lose a couple thousand in interest but the FDIC is gonna cut him a check…really no big deal. However…I was speaking with him today and asked him what would happen if he deposited that FDIC check into (insert next bank to fail here)? Wouldn’t FDIC in essence be bailing out the same account twice? I don’t know how much FDIC has in reserves to cover the accounts in the country but if it has to cover the same persons money twice (who knows…maybe more), should that not present overall concern about our “system”?

Cash in a can? LOL. Got Gold?

The data is there for both Seattle and Redding. You have to leave a space between the comma and the state or you won’t get the data. The tool is in pretty rough form. I put it out before I was done with it because I found it was a lot of fun to play with. Try it again with:

Seattle, WA
Redding, CA

Eventually, I will have a clickable flash map so you won’t have to type anything in. In the meantime, I will write more robust queries to handle a broader range of inputs. I pretty much just started coding this thing, so it’s a work in progress.

On another note: I am considering buying a house, but it is a strange situation. It was listed at $499k up until Friday when the price was reduced to $325k. It is listed as a pre-foreclosure short sale. I looked the home up on RealtyTrac and found out $457k is owed on it. Is it normal for a short sale to be this much below the actual default amount? Or is the seller just hoping someone will pounce on it and then they will ask the bank if they will take it? The auction date is 8/22/2008 on the court house steps. I take it the owner has until 11 days prior to that date to come up with the money? Any input will be greatly appreciated as I’m pretty new to this whole foreclosure stuff.

Thanks!

The suits to date, going back to the early 90s, have awarded a monetary price per square foot difference, not a rescission of the contract. But to the best of my knowledge those suits were brought after closing and not before. The buyers didn’t want to get out of the contract, they wanted the monetary difference.

I agree with you that if the buyer wanted out, and they hadn’t closed yet, a lawyer could likely get them out.

For this rough version, you have to enter the city, state info with a comma and abbreviate the state. I.E. Redding, CA

Check it out and let me know if it works. Right now it is limited to comparing 5 cities at once, but when I finish the flash front end, I’ll probably not put a limit on it.

http://housingcorrection.com/medianpricechart/default.aspx

There is no reason this “new” information can’t be used to get out of a deal. Lawsuits in RE transactions in the past have been started over less…

Indy Mac [a fairly large California Bank] just declared banruptcy this morning and FDIC covers the 1st $100K per investor [$250K on 401Ks], there’s many today that found out they can only withdraw 50 cents on the dollar this Monday. The bank’s doors were closed today.

They can use the withdrawl limited cash machines….lol.

Save, save, save: but “can cash”, not a bank?

True, but if it appraises, the buyer doesn’t have a legal out as to this “new information” and often the appraisal is done after all other legal out clauses expire. Not good to rely on the appraisal for corrections on square footage as a buyer of real estate.

Not only had some sellers cheated the square footage, but some even cheated the number of bedrooms or bathrooms. I looked a house that was listed five bedrooms but it was basically a three bedroom house. Apparently, two extra rooms were converted from storage rooms. One can fit a twin bed and the other can fit a sleeping bag. Many houses only had showers but listed as full bathrooms.

It wasn’t too bad in the dining room. You are right that the Ram decoration in the foyer is an eyesore. Besides, why would someone put a Jacuzzi tub in the open space of the master bedroom and a fireplace in between? It reminds me a Jacuzzi suite in Bellagio of Vegas or Moon Palace of Cancun Mexico. The exterior looks like an ugly townhouse building sprouting everywhere in Seattle.

No one should buy a house without knowing the main floor footprint. Say you have two houses that are 2,200 square feet ,and neither has any bedrooms on the main floor. The one with 950 square feet on the main level is still worth less than the one with 1,350 suare feet onthe main level, even if total square footage is the same.

Style is also a factor. A 2,200 sf two story home will almost always be worth more than a 2,200 square foot split entry or tri-level home.

I like your idea of the price per square foot argument. However, it is really hard to do that in Seattle. My wife and I are looking at houses now, and I would say that about 75% (rough guess) have an inflated square footage. The inflated square footage will include unfinished basements with low ceilings, attics, finished areas that were done by a do it your-selfer that really were probably better off before. Additionally, there is definitely no consistency in what is counted. Some agents include the garage as square footage, for example. We have seen homes that were listed at 1700 square feet that were really about 800.

I guess I have a peekaboo view of the Space Needle, if you lean our my front window in winter after the leaves have dropped, but when it’s not too foggy or dark to see and the wind is blowing the tops of the trees just right so they bend out of the way, letting me have a peek.

I guess in the end it’s all marketing, and they’re just embellishing the description, hoping for some interest.

BTW, I’m seeing lots of for sale condos not on Redfin here on Capitol Hill.

Be patient, it’s like falling dominoes. The outter regions begin collapsing first, and it works its way to the center. Another bank failed today, 7th largest in history to be seized by the FDIC. We’ve got some major financial problems looming on the horizon, and the prices of homes increasing by ridiculous rates isn’t going to be one of them, not for a good long time again.

Save, save, save, and perhaps do some contrarian investing.

Just because ya can say “we told you so” and we warned you years ago….doesn’t mean we can all be haughty about it.

Great data spreads Tim.

LOL

That said, there are a few properties in the same area that have had sequential price reductions and/or where the owners will be in hole after transaction fees *if* they get their current asking price. Also still quite a bit of inventory in the Yeah Right department, like this one:

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5818-Woodlawn-Ave-N-98103/home/304105 ,

which looks rather shabby from the street. I’m also interested in the narrowing price differential in this and nearby neighborhoods between SFHs and tricked-out new-construction townhouses, how that will play out.

But seriously s.data, do not panic. I too have occasional moments of insecurity and oh-god-what-have-I-done. But if you look at the data — don’t neglect Case-Shiller; median price isn’t the whole story — the worst case seems to be that we’re on a plateau. So if you’re saving anything at all, you’re fine.

…maybe Seattle really is going to weather this storm…

I don’t think so. The bubbles are slowly popping even in great neighborhoods. Look at this 3410 square-feet house with partial Green Lake view: http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2107-N-63rd-St-98103/home/304596. The house has been on market for 10 months. The owner has dropped the price from $949,000 to $739,000 and still no taker.

Believe me! This is not an isolated incidence.

Richie

Personally, I don’t give a rat’s ass about Island County…I don’t know or care about where that is. This site is about the Seattle bubble, but I don’t hear anyone acknowledging that it is holding up surprisingly well.

Please, talk me off the ledge and tell me it will happen…I’m losing faith.