About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

28 comments:

  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    I thought it would be interesting to see if the general sentiment had changed since we held the same poll last month, considering the news since then regarding Freddie / Fannie and IndyMac…

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  2. 2
    cutienoua says:

    What is Dow?just kidding!smile

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  3. 3
    matthew says:

    Anyone voting no should immediately check themselves into the nearest mental health facility.

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  4. 4
    David McManus says:

    Sounds like it’s time to playyyyyyyyyyyyy…………

    A NEW ROUND OF STIMMMMULUUUUUUUSSSSSSS CHECKS!

    Yes, soon your children’s children’s children can inherit loads of national debt that they will be paying off over their lifetime!!!

    Ok. Now I feel better.

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  5. 5
    david losh says:

    I read an article in the London Times about Citi Group. The management team felt the organization was just too large to manage effectively, profittably. As a business owner I have expanded and contracted different business plans over the years. What I know is that there are more dollars in more employees.
    Now the hard part is managing the day to day operations. There needs to be checks and balances. More money can mean more money being “lost,” mismanaged, or over looked.
    When the global market opened up, Asia in particular, a lot of money began spreading out from base operations. The internet gave the illusion of being able to watch or manage from afar. The Dow doubling in the 1990s seems to correspond with the new technology available. Today it’s like the hang over after the party. The brick wall of finance has been hit. The fact that money is dumping into commodities is only giving another illusion of profits being made, wealth.
    So in my opinion more money will be spent on smaller more conservative projects that have more substance. Asset management companies will become more prevailant. More independent consulting on start ups may seem less risky than turning over capital to a global corporation. I see more nationalism, projects closer to home and more money directed by the people who have it, in house, by a trusted staff. So I think the Dow is way over valued and it’s place in the food change greatly diminished.

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  6. 6
    Jonny says:

    looks like this may happen before end of year or even by end of summer.

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  7. 7
    mark says:

    The DOW, S&P500, and the Nasdaq had great runs from Reagan thru Clinton. Since that time they are all flat to down. The majority of the public are just starting to realise that the bull run has been dead for nearly a decade.

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  8. 8
    matthew says:

    One vote for below 8k in the next 11 months. At the rate we are going we will see below 10k by the end of the month. Look at a chart of the NIKKEI during the Japan real estate correction, it goes straight down, and they were a nation of savers.

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  9. 9
    John says:

    Will people be really affected if Dow goes to 8000? I haven’t heard much grumbling from people I know. The general opinion is things will always go back up. But what if it doesn’t for another 5, 10 years? If someone is about to retire and counting on his portfolio, that is not going to be good.

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  10. 10
    Old Ballard says:

    Want to make yourself sick. Compare the rise in stock values to the general rate of inflation for the last 50 years. Just like housing prices, since the 1990’s stock values have left the realm of reason proving that there are no rational actors. Had stocks traded consistent with inflation the Dow should be somewhere around 7500 to 8500. I believe that it is important recognize the connection between all this and the general absence of capital in the market relative to the overall leverage held by so called credit worthy companies. Throw on top of that the possible bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Fed which would add 5 trillion to the national debt of 10 trillion. Toilet paper will have more value than the U.S. dollar. We could be looking at the Dow trading closer to 5000 than 10,000 by the end of the year.

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  11. 11
    Dan says:

    Gotta laugh at all the bears who think they can see the future. If you are really so sure that the Dow is going below 10,000, better buy some put options. You stand to make a lot of money! Heck, half the people on this board should be richer than George Soros with their surefire insights into currency rates, stock prices, macroeconomic trends, etc…

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  12. 12
    shane says:

    Dan I’m sure there are plenty of people who post in here who are short or buy put options. Many others who just went to cash and are trying to ride out the storm. Not sure why you are laughing so much. I’m guessing it is a very nervous laugh you use to comfort yourself.

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  13. 13
    Thomas B. says:

    I’m short on plastics and wheat.

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  14. 14
    Jonny says:

    i’m long gold

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  15. 15
    Jonny says:

    oh, and oil… and have been long these two for years…

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  16. 16

    There is no doubt that the Fannie and Freddie bailout proposals along with the coming bank failures will negatively affect the stock market.

    Had a chat this morning with a colleague. She said there are plenty of retired folks on fixed income with investments in Fannie and Freddie who would not be doing so well if their portfolio took a substantial haircut.

    Interesting story tonight on CR about bank failures.
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/coming-bank-failures.html

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  17. 17
    mikal says:

    Don’t short Budweiser stock. Football is about to begin and I drink ALOT then.

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  18. 18
    EconE says:

    LMAO Mikal…good one!

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  19. 19
    Steve says:

    My only advice to you people is, to vote Rebublican again this election year. We have seen so much growth and prosperity under Rebublican leadership. Those folks really know how to balance a checkbook, not live outside their means.

    But seriously, has another party done worse in the history of this country? Republicans have colluded together to destroy this country. Never in my life have I seen a more despicable group of anti-American pro-China kiss the communists and golly the working American do so much to achieve so little. I hope the rest of you anti-American Rebublicans do well this election year.

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  20. 20
    matthew says:

    Jon,

    The general opinion also that there was no housing bubble. Then the general opinion was that subprime was contained. Now we have record oil prices, 1.7 trillion in home owner equity destroyed, a tapped out consumer, major bank failures, and two GSE’s that are insolvent.

    The general opinion isn’t worth a fart in the wind at this stage. Baby boomers are relying on their 401k’s and home equity to retire. I think that the value of the DOW matters a lot.

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  21. 21
    Michael says:

    Why don’t you put this poll at 8000. I bet it will go to 8000.

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  22. 22
    Amarjit says:

    Thousands of people enjoyed good food, weather, and $500Realty booth at the Cornucopia fair in Kent this weekend. People forgot about the Dow gloom and doom and were very happy to be talking about their real estate needs.

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  23. 23
    Buceri says:

    They announced the FMs bailouts Sunday evening (just like Bears’); a few hours before the opening of Asian markets to make sure they see “we are OK, please don’t sell the US peso”.

    And one of the oldest companies, 156 year old Anheuser-Busch is being purchased by a 4 year old Belgium consortium. Go figure.

    Last night I talked to a neighbor (man in his 80s); the guy is a news junkie. He told me he never saw anything like this in his lifetime. The greed without control has left the country completely unbalanced. The richest 1% own more than the lowest 90% combined. He said; “this crap happens in the third world; not in an industrialized nation.” Having traveled as much as I have, I could not disagree. He felt sorry for me and my kids

    By the way, this is the third retiree (and they don’t know each other) in the past 12 months that tells me he feels sorry for me and my kids. I have to start telling them: “stop saying that!!!”.

    The Lowes associate that helped me last Saturday was a former mortgage broker; lost her job 2 weeks ago. Last client was someone trying to get out of Washington and move to Florida.

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  24. 24
    Ray Pepper says:

    Yes, Amarjit it was a great show as long as you can look past the murder at Arby’s 1000 feet from our booth! I embrace the chance of getting interviewed by King 5 but not for that topic.

    DOW will not drop below 10k in next 11 months. Come on Paul Allen lets get CHTR SOLD and give us all a triple! I’m loaded to the gills. People WILL stay home and buy the triple play and order movies!

    Ray Pepper
    http://www.500Realty.net

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  25. 25
    Sniglet says:

    there are plenty of retired folks on fixed income with investments in Fannie and Freddie

    Are these investments in GSE bonds or stock? If it is in bonds, then the retirees should sleep soundly. There is no way a debt default will be allowed to happen (as healthy as that may be for the economic system in the long run). If they own GSE stock, however, then they should dump it as soon as they can since it is only going to go lower.

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  26. 26
    redmondjp says:

    Closed below 11,000 today. Done deal. Only took two days from inception of poll.

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  27. 27
    gutenburg says:

    Yes, I believe in the next 11 months the dow will drop below 10,000. The is no way it won’t.

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  28. 28

    […] less than 4 months, for those of you keeping score at home. Also note the July 13 follow-up, in which only 30% guessed […]

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