I will never sell my condo, I will rent it when I move on to my next property.

You mean that you will never sell your condo as long as the finaincials behave in the way that you expect them to behave. If there are not situations under which you will sell your condo then you have some serious financial mistakes in your future.

I am sorry that you do not like the fact that I was in fact a research scientist and worked on several projects and authored several white papers, and co-authored the materials found in the FAA certification Job Aid. I was involved in the Mixed Fleet Flying analysis of the 777 and the 767 among other studies.

What is it again that you do? Well besides making baseless accusations.

Correct me if I am wrong but you are the one who stated Boeing’s business grew because of the cheap housing here in Seattle. Thanks for that Gem of Wisdom!!!

I never said any of what you are accusing me of. So please do us all a favor and why not start being a little more accurate.

I am sorry that I bought a house that I can afford in an area that went up 4.1% last year. Silly me!

And l will repeat this one more time, please pay attention. I will never sell my condo, I will rent it when I move on to my next property.

Yes, Harley — you will always make money on your investments — isn’t that the same crap you were accusing other people of saying — I am sure your condo will go up, up, and up.

Harley you a right Real Estate is only take a short pause before its next great climb up — keep believing that.

I asked because you said your only reason for not leaving was you couldn’t sell you house. Since you both want to and you can, why wouldn’t you? I can’t put this together.

On to your questions: Lowering house prices are bad for people who own houses because it destroys part of their wealth, making them poorer. Homeowners are a majority of the people in this country, so it is certainly not the greatest good for the greatest number.

I dispute your assertion that someone making 60K, can’t even afford to make a down payment without overextending themselves. You save; you buy what you can afford once you’ve saved. Harley had it right on here.

I do not believe that real estate “professionals” have a monopoly on the information, but the more time you spend with a field, the better you should understand it. I wouldn’t expect a realtor to have equal knowledge of my field.

I don’t think that in capitalism all parties in a transaction ever have equal access to the same info. That’s just the way it is.

“Beeeee-otch” let me guess… 20 something, lives at home with mom and still gets put in “Time-out”.

Ruff, ruff, ruff.

Thanks for bringing so much to the conversation.

Check out the Tims Post on number 44. It is extremely interesting. Area 700, where I live, the prices went up 4.01% from last year… I thought everywhere was crashing???

Lastly, I will own this place for the rest of my life as a rental. My stomach is acid-free.

“Sorry, I didn’t mean to make you cry…”

You’re the whiniest little "female dog" here Harley.

I agree completely with having your wife raise your kids and making the sacrifices to do such a thing. I would never be the one to say it is wrong by any means. You must realize and appreciate that there are many families that have to put their kids in day care and must have two incomes. A side effect of that is these families have two incomes and would likely have more buying power when purchasing a house.

With regard to renting your home. Yes there are trade-offs with every decision. There are many good property management companies out there that will take the hassle out of renting your home. I know of several people who now live on the east coast and other parts of the country that have rental property in Seattle. The vast majority of renters are good and responsible people. Many are here on this blog. Don’t get me wrong, there are nightmare tenants out there, but they are in the minority. With regard to maintenance, you will have it regardless if you live there or not.

I too like Seattle and am happy here. I will not be here for the rest of my life, but will keep my property here. My end game is Maui… unless I find some other equally magical place to live.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to make you cry…

You like to talk down to people and as if they were children and when someone calls you out for completely making a moronic assumption “how the housing market in Seattle drives Boeing’s business” you freak out. You are the one who made the idiotic statement.

Yes, and sorry to burst your bubble, but I was a Human Factors Research Scientist for four years. I helped develop the FAA’s Certification Job Aid, NEXCOM (next generation communication and datalink systems), as well as several other projects.

Overseas assignment… it is obvious that you do not play well with others. I guess human resources made a good decision to move you out of the country. The liability of having a hothead like you on US soil is too great.

There are guns everywhere. That whole right to bear arms thing does have trade-offs. Try living in Arizona. Yes for Seattle the gun violence seems enormous but it seems like a BB gun fight in comparison to what it is like to live in a state next to the Mexican border.

Perhaps next time you will reconsider talking down to people, swearing, and truly making a spectacle of yourself. You know what they say about profanity… “an ignorant mind so desperately trying to express itself”. Thank you for the wonderful example.

All I was saying was that Seattle (or the Puget Sound for the anal retentive types) is not the center of the universe and that you can get more bang for your buck elsewhere. Are 2 people killing themselves to make money and then putting one whole income towards daycare really worth it? What are you getting out of that situation? Maybe that is normal around here, but in other parts of the country (and world), it’s not. For some people, it may be necessary. Don’t hate me because we are able to do and have been able to do that for 10 years now. We still take vacations, my family is clothed and fed, my wife goes shopping, etc. I haven’t always made the income I make now. We’ve just been able to…….

LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS!

Sure I have. Once again, we do like it here and will consider this when the NEED arises. We don’t HAVE to move and our house is not an investment. Don’t forget that renting out a home can be a hassle and you still have maintenance costs. What happens if they just up and leave? What do you do if you are stuck 2000 miles away?

We have made a family decision to have someone stay at home with my daughter (my wife) while the other person supports the family. Instead of slamming a kid in daycare, and then having the other income go solely to that, wouldn’t you say it’s better to have her mother raise her?

To have another person work more just for stuff is silly IMO. My priorities in life are more family-oriented than item-oriented. We have been blessed in that we necessarily don’t need the second income as I make enough money to support our family with plenty left over. I see people all over our neighborhood trying to keep acquire the items and overextending themselves and it really is sad.

“It’s not much different than purchasers of Belltown real estate who are in denial about how incredibly dangerous of an area they chose to live. Facing up to reality is often painful — especially when money spent foolishly is involved.

I noticed this gem in the PI today:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/jamieson/373526_robert05xx.html

“I can’t tell you how many times people have had their store windows shot out,” she said Monday, ticking off some names. “Bullets are flying. It’s the Wild, Wild West down here, especially Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.”

Maybe that will be used in future Belltown real estate listings.”

How could such a thing be possible in your glorious Seattle?

Yeah, Boeing isn’t the only game in town but if you haven’t noticed it is still the largest.

So I guess you are saying we are not in an economic DOWNTURN — yeah, you and Bush — everything is just peachy right. See right now I am positive you bought at the peak and now the old stomach acid is just eating a hole through you — couldn’t happen to a bigger A HOLE. See I get to LMFAO watching you squirm — oh how enjoyable.

“After awhile HOUSING became dirt cheap and soon people moved to Seattle, and our little company recovered see this is what is called an economic CYCLE.”

So Boeing’s performance is tied to the cost of housing and people moved here for the cheap houses… and not jobs????? Thanks for the lesson Genius!

I never said Seattle was the “place to live”. The Tim posted this post saying Seattle was “not the place to live” and asked when everyone is leaving. Not that I would expect you to comprehend that after your previous statement. Just for the record, Hana, on Maui’s north shore IS THE PLACE TO LIVE!!!

Just a little update this is not the 70’s and Boeing is not the only game in town anymore. Actually the weak dollar makes Boeing more competitively priced in comparison to that other manufacturer across the pond. Maybe if you would stop wasting your time blogging, and trust me in your case it is a waste, and get back to getting the 787 produced and filling up all of those orders you have backlogged, Boeing would be doing much better.

One last thing, I used to be a research scientist for the two government agencies that regulate your little airplane manufacturer. I am sure you are aware of the projected business jet and regional airline demands through 2030… then again probably not.

I agree that lower housing prices are not an entirely a bad thing. This whole credit crisis and housing downturn will help teach a generation or two a valuable lesson on housing and what it is actually for. Like the day traders of the 90’s, house flippers got burnt. Those that actually bought houses they can afford will be fine. The stock market eventually recovered, and so will the housing market. I don’t think anyone will be looking for that 25% return on investment in one year.

Like it or not, we are in a dual income society. Most homeowners have two incomes supporting their mortgage and in turn driving up prices. Our single income era has been dead for 30 years.

What makes you feel entitled to a house where “your housing competitors” are willing to put two incomes into supporting a house or work hard to move up the income ladder? Some may have chosen not to have kids providing further investable/disposable incomes.

You can buy a house with a 60k income without being over extended. It will be a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom condo in Renton. I know, this is preposterous to you, but there are trade-offs with every choice you make in your life. You may choose to buy 30 miles out where you can buy bigger with less money. Don’t go out to eat, don’t have cable TV, don’t buy new cars, make repairs yourself, and buy clothes at Goodwill. You have to make tough choices and often at the expense of your lifestyle and indulgences.

On a side note. Have you considered renting your home and moving to Austin? With the cost of living savings, you should be able to easily cover the gap between what you pay for it and what you can rent it for. A person making $80k in Seattle only needs to make $61k in Austin. If what you say is true and you can actually make 10% – 20% more in Austin, it becomes a no-brainer providing that you can rent out your home.

See I work for a little Airplane manufacturer you may have heard of — maybe not because we are not located in SEATTLE PROPER but way outside of Seattle in the boonies — you probably don’t make it that far South or North, well anyway in the early 70’s there was quite a hiccup at our little company and employment was cut by more than half 80k to 30k and guess what PEOPLE LEFT.

After awhile HOUSING became dirt cheap and soon people moved to Seattle, and our little company recovered see this is what is called an economic CYCLE.

Again back to my original point — when did Seattle all of a sudden become THE place to live?

See I like Seattle ( actually not real fond of downtown ) but am not delusional to the point to think it is the ONLY place to live.

I agree!

It sure as hell ain’t easy now based on the fact that two neighbors on my street have had their homes on the market now for around 6 months to a year.

I haven’t seriously thought about it actually. Why would I want to introduce all that stress into my life when I don’t NEED to move? Wanting to and needing to are 2 different things. It won’t break my heart if I take a loss on my home, although prices would have to drop very far for that to happen. We put 20% down when we bought our home, so it would need to drop to below 200K since we’ve been making additional payments towards the mortgage ever since we got it. Also, I didn’t do like my neighbors and get HELOCed out the a** spending like my last name was Hilton. At the end of the day, there are more important things in life. My home is a place to live and not a liquid investment. I don’t even think it’s an investment at all. There is no way I can control what someone will want to pay for my house in the future short of any maintenance or value adds (another bedroom, etc.)

My real investments, on the other hand, are a different story. I’m constantly watching my stocks / mutual funds / savings rates since that directly effects me right now and there’s something I can do about it. Sell them, buy more, etc.

Can you answer a question for me, in all seriousness? Why are lower house prices a bad thing? I’m no liberal, but when someone who makes a good income, say 60K, can’t even afford to make a down payment without overextending themselves, wouldn’t you say that something is seriously wrong with the system? Why do real estate “professionals” have a monopoly on the information? Does capitalism say that all parties in a transaction should have equal access to the same info for it to work?

When I say Seattle, I mean Seattle. If you want to talk about the Puget Sound area then call it the Puget Sound area. I have stated before that this blog should be called the Puget Sound Bubble. The fact is Seattle is not Everett, nor Bellevue, nor Marysville.

Good point, Harley.

Also, the local papers should be called the Puget Sound Times and the Puget Sound P-I.

David M., You are a strong proponent of prices declining in the area. If you are right, won’t your selling situation be worse in 3-5 years? How will it be easier to move then? Shouldn’t you be trying to sell now? I’m not bagging on you today; this is a serious question.

“I get tired of people that only consider the city boundary of Seattle to be Seattle.”

Sorry for being so… accurate.

When I say Seattle, I mean Seattle. If you want to talk about the Puget Sound area then call it the Puget Sound area. I have stated before that this blog should be called the Puget Sound Bubble. The fact is Seattle is not Everett, nor Bellevue, nor Marysville.

The Phoenix Metropolitan area is 80 miles wide and prices and performance vary widely based on location. Much of what you hear about with regard to Phoenix market crashing is actually the cities of Queen Creek, Gilbert, Maricopa, Tonopah, and other outlying communities. Downtown Tempe and Old Town Scottsdale are still holding their own.

Real estate is hyper-local and changes from street to street, not zip code to zip code, not neighborhood to neighborhood, and certainly not metropolitan area to metropolitan area. I think way too many people get hung up in the over-generalization of this blog, others blogs, and news sources.

Seattle the city has very little land left to develop. That is why houses are torn down and multi-level townhomes and condos are put in their place.

I thought they called this the Emerald city because of the green color reflected off of the buildings from the water during sunset (that is what a Seattle Native told me)?

Whaaat? What exactly is your definition of “Seattle”?

I get tired of people that only consider the city boundary of Seattle to be Seattle. Especially in generic arguments that compare city-centers with other city areas. When talking about housing in the Seattle area, Ballard and Green Lake are not the only people that matter. Doubly so if those folks dont even work in the city of Seattle.

Every major city is an area. Draw a 10 mile or 20 mile circle centered on downtown Seattle and you will find plenty of places to build. This is an Emerald City because of all the trees that have not been chopped down yet to build property.

For that matter, Seattle has tiny 4,000sqft lots but it is not terribly dense compared to cities like SF or NY.

I have often wondered how a city like Seattle would ever make the transition to much more dense row-houses found in other cities. I fear the outrageous property values of this bubble have stunted the normal progression towards density. It seems too expensive to develop now.

The difference is that prices drop off quickly. For a little extra distance you get a lot more house for the money. Round Rock is a popular subarb for the upwardly mobile middle class. Prices have been pretty flat across this area (although that has been changing in recent months.

And they don’t pay less in Austin — at least for the highly specialized work I do that requires advanced education. The property tax is higher — 2% in Travis County and up to 4% in neighboring counties. I have relatives who build a $1.5M house there (moving from Florida) but did not consider their property tax bill was going to be in the neighborhood of $30k/year. They’ve had to budget a little more carefully.

Then there is Raleigh, NC (against lising $500k):
3 Bed, 4.5 Bath, 3,957 Sq Ft on 1.79 Acres
4 Bed, 3 Bath, 3,663 Sq Ft on 1 Acres
5 Bed, 3.5 Bath, 4,238 Sq Ft on 0.56 Acres
4 Bed, 4 Bath, 3,860 Sq Ft on 0.31 Acres
5 Bed, 4 Bath, 3,700 Sq Ft on 0.27 Acres
3 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,890 Sq Ft on 0.19 Acres (this is a super prime location)
5 Bed, 5 Bath, 5,228 Sq Ft on 0.2 Acres

It looks like Raleigh may not be as far away from Austin as it was seven years ago. Property tax in Wake County was running around 1.2% when I lived there. I think the higher tax in TX keep prices from bubbling as much. Maybe NC saw more demand from speculation which took the price higher.

A major difference between Seattle and Austin is the price of land and building costs. Seattle has almost no land left to develop and we pay much higher wages for construction as well as have more stringent building codes. In Austin you can sprawl as much as you want to. Just blade the land and keep on going. I watched the moronic builders in Arizona do the same thing.

I wonder how much it would cost to cool that 3907 sqft. house during the summer? Trust me, they will have little to no insulation.

I hear Austin is a great town though. Awesome nightlife and who could ever deny the appeal of those Southern Bells.

I did a check on some “Downtown Zip Codes” and got these results:

$469,700
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,289 Sq. Ft.

$469,900
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,324 Sq. Ft.

$474,900
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,212 Sq. Ft.

$475,000
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,157 Sq. Ft.

$475,000
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,259 Sq. Ft.

$479,900
1 Bed, 1 Bath
1,000 Sq. Ft.

$484,900
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,399 Sq. Ft.

$485,000
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,189 Sq. Ft.

$485,000
2 Bed, 2 Bath
1,376 Sq. Ft.

Yes, the Seattle-only data comes from the “King County Breakouts” pdf, which is linked on that page. Don’t know why it isn’t working for you, as it pulls up just fine for me. Here, I uploaded a copy to a different server.

For some reason the NWMLS link you provide only shows the counties and when I click on the “King County Breakdown” it won’t open up. Did you get the Seattle Data from the “King County breakdown”?

If price dropped here to where I could find multiple houses in the $135/sqft price range, I would be ecstatic. If prices drop to $160/sqft I will probably stay.

Housing is only one component of affordability.

Yes, usually the biggest component.

I do not have any data to compare the cities by themselves do you?

According to DQNews, the median price for all homes in “Central San Diego” was $355,000 in June.

According to the NWMLS, the median price for all homes in the city of Seattle was $425,000 in June.

I don’t know if “Central San Diego” includes only the city of San Diego proper.

If it’s nicer than Seattle you’ll never be able to afford it.

NEVER!

And if it isn’t as nice as Seattle, you’ll be working at White Castle, dumpster diving for meals and selling plasma to support your new found meth habit.

So get used to it and break out the checkbook! It’s Seattle or NOTHING!!!

My point is Sand Diego’s housing cost are just one component of affordability.

Income tax, gas, electricity costs, insurance costs all factor into affordability.

Housing is only one component of affordability.

It would be interesting to see housing data from the cities solely and not the counties. I have a suspicion if you isolate and compare the cities and not the counties San Diego may be more expensive than Seattle.

Living in Arizona for 11 years it is well known that border towns tend to be extremely poor communites. I would think that San Diego county would have some towns along the border that would artificially way down prices

I do not have any data to compare the cities by themselves do you?

Do a simple search.

http://www.realtor.com

I’m not saying I would want to live in San Diego. In fact, Southern California is pretty much the last place I would want to live. I am just pointing out that prices are falling fast there, and if they really do just level off here, it won’t be long before it is clearly cheaper to live in San Diego than in Seattle.

If I’m moving away, I’m much more likely to consider Raleigh / RTP or Denver. It’s not as if the economy in those cities is in the dump.

My main point is that affordability is one factor that many people consider when determining the desirability of a place to live. If Seattle’s affordability permanently stays in the toilet, that will make us less desirable to some people, tipping the scales in favor of other, cheaper locales that have employment opportunities just as good as Seattle.

Nice example “Here, million-dollar homes are in high demand. “. So you cannot afford Seattle, but Houston is in your price range? Which is it?

“Houston’s boom was set off, in part, by the skyrocketing prices for oil and gas, which are the city’s central commodities. ”

I am glad there is no such thing as an oil bubble and obviously if the oil bubble bursts it will have no effect on the housing bubble right! Sounds like you should be a roughneck for Exxon.

It was CNN’s calculator. If you have another calculator you would like to recommend then please pass it on.

Correct me if I am wrong, but you are the one who is constantly comparing Seattle to San Diego, which I have consistently disagreed with.

Even at $30,000 less in price, the salary difference would allow you to buy an extra $150,000 worth of home here assuming you made the same salary ($91k) in both places. Having no state income tax, paying less for gas, and not being nickeled and dimed around every corner has benefits. Not to mention the extra costs associated with living next to the Mexican border.. higher insurance premiums and more crime.

Tell me where your magical place is that you will run to? I will follow you!

My question about those numbers is how much do housing costs factor into that calculation?

Lots of the cost-of-living calculators use data that’s a year or two old for their functions. Given that home prices in San Diego have fallen over 25% in the last year, while in King County the decline was just 4%, using the absolute latest data is a must.

Since you don’t provide a source for those numbers, I can’t help but be suspicious that they’re using outdated data.