Posted by: deejayoh

24 responses to “Falling from the outside in”

  1. vboring

    the other geographical trend is that areas that were historically cheap are the first to return to cheap via the mechanism of foreclosures which have been starting at the low end and working their way up.

    for seattle, this means the south end and the central district are the areas to watch.

    given that i would personally pay a small premium to live near the light rail (and not have to deal with buses anymore), i think those parts of the south end may not fall as much as they would have.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. vboring

    funny how the big red diamond that indicates the fastest rate of price appreciation on the legend represents +2%.

    in areas that fall into Zillow’s fastest appreciating segment, house prices are almost keeping up with consumer price inflation.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. WestSideBilly

    Gold Bar will be the RE agents’ next point of refuting falling sales.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. AndySeattle

    sorry for the dumb question… Why are some squares larger than others? Is that based on reporting area?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. Seeker

    Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. David G from Zillow.com

    Andy – deejay’s correct; the relative size of the squares indicates the relative number of homes included in the aggregate home value for each market.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. rose-colored-coolaid

    First, it’s interesting that the scale goes from -20 (per quarter!?!) to +2

    Second, if prices are really falling from the outside in, does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. Ira Sacharoff

    “does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of…”

    Not only is Mercer Island the center of Seattle, it’s the center of the world. Just ask the people who live there. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. Groundhogday

    Nice graphic! That really captures what has been happening in all markets (Seattle last up to bat). For this ponzi scheme, the best houses and best locations represent the top of the pyramid. When all of the supporting blocks have been removed, the top will fall as well.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. Hound Dog

    Does Zillow break it down by zip?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. mikal

    Groundhog Day, that could happen. But most big cities have only seen a slight drop on the inside core. Boston comes to mind.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. jon
  13. rose-colored-coolaid

    One other thing. Several of those regions are down 10%+ (according to Zillow) this quarter alone! Correct me if I misunderstand, but this is a quarterly update, and those are not YOY numbers.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. jonness

    Here is an interesting article that discusses the last of the holdouts:

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/aug/11/priciest-homes-not-immune-crunch-time/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. george

    Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is “close” to the aquarium? Welcome to “the city life” in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this?

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5766-27-Ave-NE-98105/home/313259

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. deejayoh

    I like the Dino Rossi sign in the front yard. That’s an agent that really cares about their work, I tell you. If you get the chance, hire Vasiliy Spatarel of Newberry Realty, Inc.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. obelus

    $367 a square foot! No wonder it is not selling. It should be half that price or less.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. Lionel

    “Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is “close” to the aquarium? Welcome to “the city life” in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this?”

    I don’t know about the aquarium, but I do know this place is overpriced. I lived in a rental last year, 3 bedroom craftsman, similarly appointed, nicer in many ways, a block over, that I paid under 1700/month for. 400X rent? No thanks.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. disbelief

    Re the Ravenna house: last purchased in 1986 for $77K!? I guess they’ve got room to move, but they won’t get anything close to the asking price. This will likely be a case where they would have probably netted more money had they not remodeled (let alone sold it a few years ago).

    This will be an interesting one to watch. Can we have a poll to predict the price?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. biliruben

    A 3-1 1100 sq ft house in the neighborhood, similarly remodeled went for 729K last month.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6051-29th-Ave-NE-98115/home/312722

    I think they have a shot of getting their price, Rossi sign and moron Realtor or no. That neighborhood is still showing strength.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. B&W Nikes

    It’d be real interesting to see a differentiation between SFH and Condo numbers on the same kind of map. I guesstimate that centrally situated, well serviced SFHs will hold water much better than the Condos will over the next 18 mo’s. I believe Condos and other Multis are going to bleed pretty heavily across the region over the same time period.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. george

    Lionel that is the bottom line. I don’t care if this house is equipped with a full-on transporter direct from Star Trek to get you downtown. Rentals are expensive in Seattle compared to 2006, but we’re talking $1700 a month vs. inching up to 700K? It may sell, but you’d have to be nuts. Or just really really really bad at math.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 5 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+