Comments on: Falling from the outside in http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:52:31 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: george http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54389 george Thu, 14 Aug 2008 02:49:41 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54389 Lionel that is the bottom line. I don't care if this house is equipped with a full-on transporter direct from Star Trek to get you downtown. Rentals are expensive in Seattle compared to 2006, but we're talking $1700 a month vs. inching up to 700K? It may sell, but you'd have to be nuts. Or just really really really bad at math.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54389','george',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54389','george','Lionel that is the bottom line. I don\'t care if this house is equipped with a full-on transporter direct from Star Trek to get you downtown. Rentals are expensive in Seattle compared to 2006, but we\'re talking $1700 a month vs. inching up to 700K? It may sell, but you\'d have to be nuts. Or just really really really bad at math.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Lionel that is the bottom line. I don’t care if this house is equipped with a full-on transporter direct from Star Trek to get you downtown. Rentals are expensive in Seattle compared to 2006, but we’re talking $1700 a month vs. inching up to 700K? It may sell, but you’d have to be nuts. Or just really really really bad at math.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: B&W Nikes http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54315 B&W Nikes Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:18:56 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54315 It'd be real interesting to see a differentiation between SFH and Condo numbers on the same kind of map. I guesstimate that centrally situated, well serviced SFHs will hold water much better than the Condos will over the next 18 mo's. I believe Condos and other Multis are going to bleed pretty heavily across the region over the same time period.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54315','B&W Nikes',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54315','B&W Nikes','It\'d be real interesting to see a differentiation between SFH and Condo numbers on the same kind of map. I guesstimate that centrally situated, well serviced SFHs will hold water much better than the Condos will over the next 18 mo\'s. I believe Condos and other Multis are going to bleed pretty heavily across the region over the same time period.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> It’d be real interesting to see a differentiation between SFH and Condo numbers on the same kind of map. I guesstimate that centrally situated, well serviced SFHs will hold water much better than the Condos will over the next 18 mo’s. I believe Condos and other Multis are going to bleed pretty heavily across the region over the same time period.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: biliruben http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54310 biliruben Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:15:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54310 A 3-1 1100 sq ft house in the neighborhood, similarly remodeled went for 729K last month. http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6051-29th-Ave-NE-98115/home/312722 I think they have a shot of getting their price, Rossi sign and moron Realtor or no. That neighborhood is still showing strength.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54310','biliruben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54310','biliruben','A 3-1 1100 sq ft house in the neighborhood, similarly remodeled went for 729K last month. \r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/WA\/Seattle\/6051-29th-Ave-NE-98115\/home\/312722\r\n\r\nI think they have a shot of getting their price, Rossi sign and moron Realtor or no. That neighborhood is still showing strength.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> A 3-1 1100 sq ft house in the neighborhood, similarly remodeled went for 729K last month.

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6051-29th-Ave-NE-98115/home/312722

I think they have a shot of getting their price, Rossi sign and moron Realtor or no. That neighborhood is still showing strength.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: disbelief http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54305 disbelief Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:46:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54305 Re the Ravenna house: last purchased in 1986 for $77K!? I guess they've got room to move, but they won't get anything close to the asking price. This will likely be a case where they would have probably netted more money had they not remodeled (let alone sold it a few years ago). This will be an interesting one to watch. Can we have a poll to predict the price?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54305','disbelief',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54305','disbelief','Re the Ravenna house: last purchased in 1986 for $77K!? I guess they\'ve got room to move, but they won\'t get anything close to the asking price. This will likely be a case where they would have probably netted more money had they not remodeled (let alone sold it a few years ago).\r\n\r\nThis will be an interesting one to watch. Can we have a poll to predict the price?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Re the Ravenna house: last purchased in 1986 for $77K!? I guess they’ve got room to move, but they won’t get anything close to the asking price. This will likely be a case where they would have probably netted more money had they not remodeled (let alone sold it a few years ago).

This will be an interesting one to watch. Can we have a poll to predict the price?

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Lionel http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54295 Lionel Wed, 13 Aug 2008 14:44:07 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54295 “Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is “close” to the aquarium? Welcome to “the city life” in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this?”

I don’t know about the aquarium, but I do know this place is overpriced. I lived in a rental last year, 3 bedroom craftsman, similarly appointed, nicer in many ways, a block over, that I paid under 1700/month for. 400X rent? No thanks.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: obelus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54294 obelus Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:54:56 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54294 $367 a square foot! No wonder it is not selling. It should be half that price or less.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54294','obelus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54294','obelus','$367 a square foot! No wonder it is not selling. It should be half that price or less.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> $367 a square foot! No wonder it is not selling. It should be half that price or less.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: deejayoh http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54287 deejayoh Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:47:34 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54287 I like the Dino Rossi sign in the front yard. That's an agent that really cares about their work, I tell you. If you get the chance, hire Vasiliy Spatarel of Newberry Realty, Inc.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54287','deejayoh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54287','deejayoh','I like the Dino Rossi sign in the front yard. That\'s an agent that really cares about their work, I tell you. If you get the chance, hire Vasiliy Spatarel of Newberry Realty, Inc.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I like the Dino Rossi sign in the front yard. That’s an agent that really cares about their work, I tell you. If you get the chance, hire Vasiliy Spatarel of Newberry Realty, Inc.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: george http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54286 george Wed, 13 Aug 2008 04:18:00 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54286 Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is "close" to the aquarium? Welcome to "the city life" in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this? http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5766-27-Ave-NE-98105/home/313259<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54286','george',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54286','george','Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is \"close\" to the aquarium? Welcome to \"the city life\" in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this? \r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.redfin.com\/WA\/Seattle\/5766-27-Ave-NE-98105\/home\/313259',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Speaking of urban core living, can some smart agent please explain this new listing in (or near) Ravenna? This is “close” to the aquarium? Welcome to “the city life” in Seattle? Why is it being marketed like this?

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5766-27-Ave-NE-98105/home/313259

Reply – Quote
]]> By: jonness http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54284 jonness Wed, 13 Aug 2008 03:21:56 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54284 Here is an interesting article that discusses the last of the holdouts: http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/aug/11/priciest-homes-not-immune-crunch-time/<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54284','jonness',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54284','jonness','Here is an interesting article that discusses the last of the holdouts:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.lasvegassun.com\/news\/2008\/aug\/11\/priciest-homes-not-immune-crunch-time\/',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Here is an interesting article that discusses the last of the holdouts:

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/aug/11/priciest-homes-not-immune-crunch-time/

Reply – Quote
]]> By: rose-colored-coolaid http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54281 rose-colored-coolaid Wed, 13 Aug 2008 02:07:52 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54281 One other thing. Several of those regions are down 10%+ (according to Zillow) this quarter alone! Correct me if I misunderstand, but this is a quarterly update, and those are not YOY numbers.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54281','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54281','rose-colored-coolaid','One other thing. Several of those regions are down 10%+ (according to Zillow) this quarter alone! Correct me if I misunderstand, but this is a quarterly update, and those are not YOY numbers.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> One other thing. Several of those regions are down 10%+ (according to Zillow) this quarter alone! Correct me if I misunderstand, but this is a quarterly update, and those are not YOY numbers.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: jon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54280 jon Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:22:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54280 "Does Zillow break it down by zip?" Looks like so here: http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Seattle%20Tacoma%20Bellevue%20WA&graphic=Map-Real-Estate-Market-Year-over-Year-Home-Price-Appreciation<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54280','jon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54280','jon','\"Does Zillow break it down by zip?\"\r\n\r\nLooks like so here: http:\/\/www.zillow.com\/reports\/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Seattle%20Tacoma%20Bellevue%20WA&graphic=Map-Real-Estate-Market-Year-over-Year-Home-Price-Appreciation',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “Does Zillow break it down by zip?”

Looks like so here: http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketChartsAndMaps.htm?msa=Seattle%20Tacoma%20Bellevue%20WA&graphic=Map-Real-Estate-Market-Year-over-Year-Home-Price-Appreciation

Reply – Quote
]]> By: mikal http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54279 mikal Wed, 13 Aug 2008 01:04:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54279 Groundhog Day, that could happen. But most big cities have only seen a slight drop on the inside core. Boston comes to mind.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54279','mikal',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54279','mikal','Groundhog Day, that could happen. But most big cities have only seen a slight drop on the inside core. Boston comes to mind.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Groundhog Day, that could happen. But most big cities have only seen a slight drop on the inside core. Boston comes to mind.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: Hound Dog http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54278 Hound Dog Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:32:07 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54278 Does Zillow break it down by zip?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54278','Hound Dog',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54278','Hound Dog','Does Zillow break it down by zip?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Does Zillow break it down by zip?
Reply – Quote
]]> By: Groundhogday http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54277 Groundhogday Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:22:17 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54277 Nice graphic! That really captures what has been happening in all markets (Seattle last up to bat). For this ponzi scheme, the best houses and best locations represent the top of the pyramid. When all of the supporting blocks have been removed, the top will fall as well.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54277','Groundhogday',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54277','Groundhogday','Nice graphic! That really captures what has been happening in all markets (Seattle last up to bat). For this ponzi scheme, the best houses and best locations represent the top of the pyramid. When all of the supporting blocks have been removed, the top will fall as well.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Nice graphic! That really captures what has been happening in all markets (Seattle last up to bat). For this ponzi scheme, the best houses and best locations represent the top of the pyramid. When all of the supporting blocks have been removed, the top will fall as well.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: Ira Sacharoff http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54276 Ira Sacharoff Tue, 12 Aug 2008 23:08:23 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54276 “does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of…”

Not only is Mercer Island the center of Seattle, it’s the center of the world. Just ask the people who live there. :)

Reply – Quote
]]> By: rose-colored-coolaid http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54275 rose-colored-coolaid Tue, 12 Aug 2008 22:58:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54275 First, it's interesting that the scale goes from -20 (per quarter!?!) to +2 Second, if prices are really falling from the outside in, does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54275','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54275','rose-colored-coolaid','First, it\'s interesting that the scale goes from -20 (per quarter!?!) to +2\r\n\r\nSecond, if prices are really falling from the outside in, does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of...',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> First, it’s interesting that the scale goes from -20 (per quarter!?!) to +2

Second, if prices are really falling from the outside in, does that mean Mercer Island is now the center of Seattle? I kid. Sort of…

Reply – Quote
]]> By: David G from Zillow.com http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54274 David G from Zillow.com Tue, 12 Aug 2008 22:19:14 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54274 Andy - deejay's correct; the relative size of the squares indicates the relative number of homes included in the aggregate home value for each market.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54274','David G from Zillow.com',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54274','David G from Zillow.com','Andy - deejay\'s correct; the relative size of the squares indicates the relative number of homes included in the aggregate home value for each market.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Andy – deejay’s correct; the relative size of the squares indicates the relative number of homes included in the aggregate home value for each market.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: deejayoh http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54272 deejayoh Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:17:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54272 <blockquote>Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?</blockquote> Seeker - if you are referring to Alt-A resets, I saw this chart today that is probably what you are looking for: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SJ2TM6xk9FI/AAAAAAAACa4/z1O-B6zuGkQ/s1600-h/ClaytonAltA.jpg<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54272','deejayoh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54272','deejayoh','<blockquote>Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nSeeker - if you are referring to Alt-A resets, I saw this chart today that is probably what you are looking for:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_pMscxxELHEg\/SJ2TM6xk9FI\/AAAAAAAACa4\/z1O-B6zuGkQ\/s1600-h\/ClaytonAltA.jpg',''); return false;">Quote</a></div>

Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?

Seeker – if you are referring to Alt-A resets, I saw this chart today that is probably what you are looking for:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SJ2TM6xk9FI/AAAAAAAACa4/z1O-B6zuGkQ/s1600-h/ClaytonAltA.jpg

Reply – Quote
]]> By: deejayoh http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54269 deejayoh Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:52:17 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54269

sorry for the dumb question… Why are some squares larger than others? Is that based on reporting area?

Andy –
I think the size of the squares refers to sales volume for the area. That would explain Seattle and Tacoma being the largest

Reply – Quote
]]> By: Seeker http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54268 Seeker Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:39:50 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54268 Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54268','Seeker',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54268','Seeker','Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Does anyone know when would be the initial ARM reset hit in Seattle?
Reply – Quote
]]> By: AndySeattle http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54267 AndySeattle Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:23:00 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54267 sorry for the dumb question... Why are some squares larger than others? Is that based on reporting area?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54267','AndySeattle',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54267','AndySeattle','sorry for the dumb question... Why are some squares larger than others? Is that based on reporting area?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> sorry for the dumb question… Why are some squares larger than others? Is that based on reporting area?
Reply – Quote
]]> By: WestSideBilly http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54266 WestSideBilly Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:07:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54266 Gold Bar will be the RE agents' next point of refuting falling sales.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54266','WestSideBilly',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54266','WestSideBilly','Gold Bar will be the RE agents\' next point of refuting falling sales.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Gold Bar will be the RE agents’ next point of refuting falling sales.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: vboring http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54264 vboring Tue, 12 Aug 2008 19:49:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54264 funny how the big red diamond that indicates the fastest rate of price appreciation on the legend represents +2%. in areas that fall into Zillow's fastest appreciating segment, house prices are almost keeping up with consumer price inflation.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54264','vboring',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54264','vboring','funny how the big red diamond that indicates the fastest rate of price appreciation on the legend represents +2%.\r\n\r\nin areas that fall into Zillow\'s fastest appreciating segment, house prices are almost keeping up with consumer price inflation.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> funny how the big red diamond that indicates the fastest rate of price appreciation on the legend represents +2%.

in areas that fall into Zillow’s fastest appreciating segment, house prices are almost keeping up with consumer price inflation.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: vboring http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/12/falling-from-the-outside-in/#comment-54263 vboring Tue, 12 Aug 2008 19:43:54 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2398#comment-54263 the other geographical trend is that areas that were historically cheap are the first to return to cheap via the mechanism of foreclosures which have been starting at the low end and working their way up. for seattle, this means the south end and the central district are the areas to watch. given that i would personally pay a small premium to live near the light rail (and not have to deal with buses anymore), i think those parts of the south end may not fall as much as they would have.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('54263','vboring',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('54263','vboring','the other geographical trend is that areas that were historically cheap are the first to return to cheap via the mechanism of foreclosures which have been starting at the low end and working their way up.\r\n\r\nfor seattle, this means the south end and the central district are the areas to watch.\r\n\r\ngiven that i would personally pay a small premium to live near the light rail (and not have to deal with buses anymore), i think those parts of the south end may not fall as much as they would have.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> the other geographical trend is that areas that were historically cheap are the first to return to cheap via the mechanism of foreclosures which have been starting at the low end and working their way up.

for seattle, this means the south end and the central district are the areas to watch.

given that i would personally pay a small premium to live near the light rail (and not have to deal with buses anymore), i think those parts of the south end may not fall as much as they would have.

Reply – Quote
]]>