Comments on: Case-Shiller Tiers: A Flat Spring Bounce http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/ local real estate news, statistics, and commentary without the sales spin. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 00:15:58 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: rose-colored-coolaidhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55593 rose-colored-coolaid Sat, 30 Aug 2008 02:15:33 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55593 I meant the comments, not the report itself. I always enjoy the reports.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55593','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55593','rose-colored-coolaid','I meant the comments, not the report itself. I always enjoy the reports.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I meant the comments, not the report itself. I always enjoy the reports.
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]]> By: rose-colored-coolaidhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55592 rose-colored-coolaid Sat, 30 Aug 2008 02:15:12 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55592 Hrmm, this CS report is strangely empty. It seems that many of the trolls have finally caved to the obvious situation that the market is in, and without trolls making things up these charts become merely interesting rather than controversial.Cheers all.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55592','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55592','rose-colored-coolaid','Hrmm, this CS report is strangely empty. It seems that many of the trolls have finally caved to the obvious situation that the market is in, and without trolls making things up these charts become merely interesting rather than controversial.\r\n\r\nCheers all.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Hrmm, this CS report is strangely empty. It seems that many of the trolls have finally caved to the obvious situation that the market is in, and without trolls making things up these charts become merely interesting rather than controversial.

Cheers all.

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]]> By: david loshhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55546 david losh Fri, 29 Aug 2008 01:41:40 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55546 Yes, it's the decline in pricing that's important. Declines in prices coupled with an increase of inventory can make offers more attractive. It was while counting the low end inventory that I found properties below $300K. It just surprised me. The increasing numbers of lower priced properties I think is a big change from let's say February. As the inventory grows, and less expensive propertie languish on the market, what's a seller going to do?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55546','david losh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55546','david losh','Yes, it\'s the decline in pricing that\'s important. Declines in prices coupled with an increase of inventory can make offers more attractive. \r\nIt was while counting the low end inventory that I found properties below $300K. It just surprised me. The increasing numbers of lower priced properties I think is a big change from let\'s say February. As the inventory grows, and less expensive propertie languish on the market, what\'s a seller going to do?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Yes, it’s the decline in pricing that’s important. Declines in prices coupled with an increase of inventory can make offers more attractive.
It was while counting the low end inventory that I found properties below $300K. It just surprised me. The increasing numbers of lower priced properties I think is a big change from let’s say February. As the inventory grows, and less expensive propertie languish on the market, what’s a seller going to do?
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]]> By: Jackson Wallacehttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55524 Jackson Wallace Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:41:37 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55524 David Losh, while I agree that things have declined from the insane peak they rose to, when you look at previous sold at prices on redfin, you see that some of these 300k houses were selling at 175k in say 1999. Starters in Shoreline were averaging 200k in as recently as 2002, not the 300k of now. Anyway, those are the prices in less than choice areas that are truly reasonable, and we'll either get there, or Seattle will stay perma-expensive. This weather has got to be making people question being here, though, It always has.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55524','Jackson Wallace',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55524','Jackson Wallace','David Losh, while I agree that things have declined from the insane peak they rose to, when you look at previous sold at prices on redfin, you see that some of these 300k houses were selling at 175k in say 1999. Starters in Shoreline were averaging 200k in as recently as 2002, not the 300k of now. Anyway, those are the prices in less than choice areas that are truly reasonable, and we\'ll either get there, or Seattle will stay perma-expensive. This weather has got to be making people question being here, though, It always has.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> David Losh, while I agree that things have declined from the insane peak they rose to, when you look at previous sold at prices on redfin, you see that some of these 300k houses were selling at 175k in say 1999. Starters in Shoreline were averaging 200k in as recently as 2002, not the 300k of now. Anyway, those are the prices in less than choice areas that are truly reasonable, and we’ll either get there, or Seattle will stay perma-expensive. This weather has got to be making people question being here, though, It always has.
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]]> By: georgehttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55487 george Thu, 28 Aug 2008 03:29:33 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55487 "The numbers seem to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay."David I wonder if your wording there would work with a lowball offer? "Yea, sure the price seems fair, but if you look at the inventory and direction the market is heading it's just 'not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.'"<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55487','george',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55487','george','\"The numbers seem to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.\"\r\n\r\nDavid I wonder if your wording there would work with a lowball offer? \"Yea, sure the price seems fair, but if you look at the inventory and direction the market is heading it\'s just \'not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.\'\"',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “The numbers seem to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.”

David I wonder if your wording there would work with a lowball offer? “Yea, sure the price seems fair, but if you look at the inventory and direction the market is heading it’s just ‘not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.’”

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]]> By: david loshhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55486 david losh Thu, 28 Aug 2008 01:50:26 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55486 Smart sellers took this Spring to unload. There were lots of properties owned by Real Estate agents in this mix. Many agents told sellers they needed to be 10% below the market analysis to sell. There again I was amazed that many properties sold like business as usual, full price, or close. There was also the rise in FHA limits that buyers took advantage of. FHA became the new 0% down darling of the industry. Now I see many properties in the low $300K range with some hitting $250K. There are 222 residential units below $350 from Central Area to 145th, water to water, 131 built before 1998 which takes out town houses. Below $300K there are 68 and 49 built before 1998. That's a lot to choose from.. A big surprise is that there are 127 pre 1998 residential units, houses between $350K to $400K. Add in the town houses for 440 housing units for sale under $400K from the Central Area, I90, to 145th. Not counting down town proper. 475 between $400K to $500K then $500K to $600K there are 361. As long as I went this far there are 239 between $600K to $700K, 344 $700K to a million and over a million 328 houses.2162 housing units for sale in my little area up from 1770 a few weeks ago.Before I got carried away counting housing units for sale my point was that the greatest indication of downward pricing was the number of housing units below $300K, Last year $250K was extremely rare. Today there are seven, not counting house boats. As prices went down those that wanted to buy, who had waited the year to buy, bought what they saw as bargains. Now it's the number of units in inventory concerns me. There are also many people who left the market when they didn't get the bounce. When we also add the shadow inventory of those that would like to sell, cut, and run, who waited to see what would happen this Spring The numbers seems to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55486','david losh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55486','david losh','Smart sellers took this Spring to unload. There were lots of properties owned by Real Estate agents in this mix. Many agents told sellers they needed to be 10% below the market analysis to sell. There again I was amazed that many properties sold like business as usual, full price, or close. \r\nThere was also the rise in FHA limits that buyers took advantage of. FHA became the new 0% down darling of the industry. \r\nNow I see many properties in the low $300K range with some hitting $250K. There are 222 residential units below $350 from Central Area to 145th, water to water, 131 built before 1998 which takes out town houses. Below $300K there are 68 and 49 built before 1998.\r\nThat\'s a lot to choose from.. \r\nA big surprise is that there are 127 pre 1998 residential units, houses between $350K to $400K. \r\nAdd in the town houses for 440 housing units for sale under $400K from the Central Area, I90, to 145th. Not counting down town proper.\r\n475 between $400K to $500K then $500K to $600K there are 361. As long as I went this far there are 239 between $600K to $700K, 344 $700K to a million and over a million 328 houses.\r\n\r\n2162 housing units for sale in my little area up from 1770 a few weeks ago. \r\n\r\nBefore I got carried away counting housing units for sale my point was that the greatest indication of downward pricing was the number of housing units below $300K, Last year $250K was extremely rare. Today there are seven, not counting house boats. \r\nAs prices went down those that wanted to buy, who had waited the year to buy, bought what they saw as bargains. \r\nNow it\'s the number of units in inventory concerns me. There are also many people who left the market when they didn\'t get the bounce. When we also add the shadow inventory of those that would like to sell, cut, and run, who waited to see what would happen this Spring The numbers seems to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Smart sellers took this Spring to unload. There were lots of properties owned by Real Estate agents in this mix. Many agents told sellers they needed to be 10% below the market analysis to sell. There again I was amazed that many properties sold like business as usual, full price, or close.
There was also the rise in FHA limits that buyers took advantage of. FHA became the new 0% down darling of the industry.
Now I see many properties in the low $300K range with some hitting $250K. There are 222 residential units below $350 from Central Area to 145th, water to water, 131 built before 1998 which takes out town houses. Below $300K there are 68 and 49 built before 1998.
That’s a lot to choose from..
A big surprise is that there are 127 pre 1998 residential units, houses between $350K to $400K.
Add in the town houses for 440 housing units for sale under $400K from the Central Area, I90, to 145th. Not counting down town proper.
475 between $400K to $500K then $500K to $600K there are 361. As long as I went this far there are 239 between $600K to $700K, 344 $700K to a million and over a million 328 houses.

2162 housing units for sale in my little area up from 1770 a few weeks ago.

Before I got carried away counting housing units for sale my point was that the greatest indication of downward pricing was the number of housing units below $300K, Last year $250K was extremely rare. Today there are seven, not counting house boats.
As prices went down those that wanted to buy, who had waited the year to buy, bought what they saw as bargains.
Now it’s the number of units in inventory concerns me. There are also many people who left the market when they didn’t get the bounce. When we also add the shadow inventory of those that would like to sell, cut, and run, who waited to see what would happen this Spring The numbers seems to add up to a lot of properties not worth what a buyer is willing to pay.

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]]> By: Jillayne Schlickehttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55484 Jillayne Schlicke Thu, 28 Aug 2008 00:47:12 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55484 Speaking of ponies, I was at a surprisingly quiet Alderwood Mall last night and saw a t-shirt at Fuego with a magical pink and blue pony with cupcakes floating out of its butt.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55484','Jillayne Schlicke',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55484','Jillayne Schlicke','Speaking of ponies, I was at a surprisingly quiet Alderwood Mall last night and saw a t-shirt at Fuego with a magical pink and blue pony with cupcakes floating out of its butt.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Speaking of ponies, I was at a surprisingly quiet Alderwood Mall last night and saw a t-shirt at Fuego with a magical pink and blue pony with cupcakes floating out of its butt.
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]]> By: softwarengineerhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55476 softwarengineer Wed, 27 Aug 2008 21:06:10 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55476 ARE THESE PEAK VALUES OF THE FEW PINK PONY HOMES THAT SOLD?I'm sure if we threw out auto internet [i.e., Autotrader.com sales] out and just took peak prices sold from large dealers; the leveling out could similarly be explained? The cheaper priced sales were suddenly eliminated?Perhaps, the cheap homes aren't getting graphed here [just expensive dealer stock], they're like the foreclosed ones and sellers can't afford to sell upside mortgages for losses? This phenomena may be skewing the data?Having numbers of units for each month may help.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55476','softwarengineer',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55476','softwarengineer','ARE THESE PEAK VALUES OF THE FEW PINK PONY HOMES THAT SOLD?\r\n\r\nI\'m sure if we threw out auto internet [i.e., Autotrader.com sales] out and just took peak prices sold from large dealers; the leveling out could similarly be explained? The cheaper priced sales were suddenly eliminated?\r\n\r\nPerhaps, the cheap homes aren\'t getting graphed here [just expensive dealer stock], they\'re like the foreclosed ones and sellers can\'t afford to sell upside mortgages for losses? This phenomena may be skewing the data?\r\n\r\nHaving numbers of units for each month may help.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> ARE THESE PEAK VALUES OF THE FEW PINK PONY HOMES THAT SOLD?

I’m sure if we threw out auto internet [i.e., Autotrader.com sales] out and just took peak prices sold from large dealers; the leveling out could similarly be explained? The cheaper priced sales were suddenly eliminated?

Perhaps, the cheap homes aren’t getting graphed here [just expensive dealer stock], they’re like the foreclosed ones and sellers can’t afford to sell upside mortgages for losses? This phenomena may be skewing the data?

Having numbers of units for each month may help.

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]]> By: rose-colored-coolaidhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55475 rose-colored-coolaid Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:59:54 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55475 Gee, I don't know if this could be a more obvious <b>dead cat bounce</b> if you actually drew a crude image of cat carcass onto the graphs.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55475','rose-colored-coolaid',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55475','rose-colored-coolaid','Gee, I don\'t know if this could be a more obvious <b>dead cat bounce<\/b> if you actually drew a crude image of cat carcass onto the graphs.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Gee, I don’t know if this could be a more obvious dead cat bounce if you actually drew a crude image of cat carcass onto the graphs.
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]]> By: TheHulkhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55467 TheHulk Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:18:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55467 I also wonder how the volume numbers compare for each tier. I think the flatness we have seen in the middle and high tiers is a combination of two things: Unrealistic expectations on part of sellers and realtors insisting that there will be a spring bounce. Fall and the upcoming winter will make at least some of the sellers regret not having lowered prices more aggressively this spring. Those who did manage to sell in the past six months should count themselves as being very lucky (or sensible in accepting what would previously be considered lowball / insulting offers).<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55467','TheHulk',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55467','TheHulk','I also wonder how the volume numbers compare for each tier. \r\nI think the flatness we have seen in the middle and high tiers is a combination of two things: Unrealistic expectations on part of sellers and realtors insisting that there will be a spring bounce.\r\nFall and the upcoming winter will make at least some of the sellers regret not having lowered prices more aggressively this spring. Those who did manage to sell in the past six months should count themselves as being very lucky (or sensible in accepting what would previously be considered lowball \/ insulting offers).',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I also wonder how the volume numbers compare for each tier.
I think the flatness we have seen in the middle and high tiers is a combination of two things: Unrealistic expectations on part of sellers and realtors insisting that there will be a spring bounce.
Fall and the upcoming winter will make at least some of the sellers regret not having lowered prices more aggressively this spring. Those who did manage to sell in the past six months should count themselves as being very lucky (or sensible in accepting what would previously be considered lowball / insulting offers).
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]]> By: Garthhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55463 Garth Wed, 27 Aug 2008 19:13:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55463 I would guess that almost none of low tier homes are in seattle, bellevue or redmond proper.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55463','Garth',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55463','Garth','I would guess that almost none of low tier homes are in seattle, bellevue or redmond proper.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I would guess that almost none of low tier homes are in seattle, bellevue or redmond proper.
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]]> By: Charles Deanhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/08/27/case-shiller-tiers/#comment-55457 Charles Dean Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:37:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2553#comment-55457 I think it makes sense that the lower priced tier dropped more dramatically. Zero down financing for upper priced homes had gone away months before, but for lower priced homes zero down financing disappeared April 1st. Then the market shifted to FHA financing and things stabilized.With downpayment assistant programs going away October 1, I would expect this kind of drop to happen again, unless congress is able to pass the legislation that was introduced before their latest recess.But the thing is that traditionally people who were buying higher priced homes usually have more money, or are selling a lower priced home in order to buy something bigger and better. Therefore they're able to actually pay a down payment.So I'm sure we'll see the higher tier prices follow suit, as those who are selling lower tier houses get less money for their homes and are not able to make as large of a down payment.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('55457','Charles Dean',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('55457','Charles Dean','I think it makes sense that the lower priced tier dropped more dramatically. Zero down financing for upper priced homes had gone away months before, but for lower priced homes zero down financing disappeared April 1st. Then the market shifted to FHA financing and things stabilized.\r\n\r\nWith downpayment assistant programs going away October 1, I would expect this kind of drop to happen again, unless congress is able to pass the legislation that was introduced before their latest recess. \r\n\r\nBut the thing is that traditionally people who were buying higher priced homes usually have more money, or are selling a lower priced home in order to buy something bigger and better. Therefore they\'re able to actually pay a down payment. \r\n\r\nSo I\'m sure we\'ll see the higher tier prices follow suit, as those who are selling lower tier houses get less money for their homes and are not able to make as large of a down payment.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think it makes sense that the lower priced tier dropped more dramatically. Zero down financing for upper priced homes had gone away months before, but for lower priced homes zero down financing disappeared April 1st. Then the market shifted to FHA financing and things stabilized.

With downpayment assistant programs going away October 1, I would expect this kind of drop to happen again, unless congress is able to pass the legislation that was introduced before their latest recess.

But the thing is that traditionally people who were buying higher priced homes usually have more money, or are selling a lower priced home in order to buy something bigger and better. Therefore they’re able to actually pay a down payment.

So I’m sure we’ll see the higher tier prices follow suit, as those who are selling lower tier houses get less money for their homes and are not able to make as large of a down payment.

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