About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

43 comments:

  1. 1
    s.data says:

    I think we all know that Seattleites are generally not savvy enough to “sit on the sidelines” and make conservative real estate related decisions. This whole notion that people are waiting to buy, rather than being unable to find easy loans is laughable.

    If there was any way people could find financing, Seattle would continue to overpay for crappy homes and condos.

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  2. 2
    Alan says:

    “By early next year, many will come to regret their decision to not delay buying a home.”
    – Alan on Seattle Bubble

    It takes all kinds in this world. I think both quotes will turn out to be true.

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  3. 3
    rose-colored-coolaid says:

    You guys are reading this wrong. “Many” clearly refers to the sellers and “their” refers to potential buyers.

    All Sims is saying is that a lot of sellers are going to be very regretful that the buyers finally got smart.

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  4. 4
    MarkM says:

    School is back in session (sans Bellevue) and the inventory count sits at > 12,000 for SFH and > 4000 for condos. The prime buying season has just winded down. Granted sales of homes occur throughout the year but that’s a very big inventory to be entering the “slow time” in…..

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  5. 5
    DavidB says:

    “King County budget shortfall rises to $90 million”

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008160413_webkingbudget05m.html

    Ron Sims should be focused on balaincing the County budget instead of making stupid comments like that! I’m sure he longs for the “good old days” when the economy was strong and the government could tax and spend like there was no tomorrow!

    The local economy is starting to show serious cracks. Home prices have nowhere to go but down!

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  6. 6
    richie says:

    Ron Sims needs to balance the budget. This is the only way to find suckers to pay his bills.

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  7. 7

    Sims has been clearly wrong on a lot of issues over the years, and has said a lot of stupid things. People who like him say he’s a ” big picture” guy, but all I’ve seen is a guy who doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

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  8. 8

    RON SIMS

    The same guy that wanted to build a sewage treatment plant in East King County suburbs to add the wonderful odor of uncontrolled growth to a collapsed housing market.

    Its just like SF, why do we keep voting these environmental monsters in?

    He must adhere to the NIMBY policy with sewage treatment facilities, “Not In My Back Yard”. He lives in Seattle.

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  9. 9
    Jonny says:

    “Suckers, pay my golly bills!”

    — Ron Sims

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  10. 10
    Jonny says:

    how does d am n become golly?

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  11. 11
    SteveH says:

    I know I shouldn’t say this, but……..MarkM, it’s ‘wound down’ not ‘winded down’. Wound is the past tense of wind. Yeah, yeah, I know the language police shouldn’t be out at night but it just sort of galls and I can’t help it. Sorry.

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  12. 12

    do you believe it’s really Ron Sims using Twitter? I was following Ben Bernanke around for a while…I really miss his updates!

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  13. 13
    The Tim says:

    Rhonda, check out the blue twitter link and recent twitter updates in the upper-right box on Ron’s official page on the county website. It’s definitely him.

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  14. 14
    EconE says:

    SteveH….don’t think I’ve seen you around here before. Welcome to Seattle Bubble.

    I think you might be looking for this blog however…

    http://spandg.blogspot.com/

    ;o)

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  15. 15
    david losh says:

    Ron has spent money the County never had since the mid 1980s. He is looking for your tax dollars. Sound Transit is a personal play thing. Grand ideas without substance are his trademark. If you give Ron money he will initiate a study that will clearly show that if you spend more money he will build something.

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  16. 16
    Richard Thompson says:

    WOW! I love what this guy is saying…. All of you below the age of 19 are SOL. Seattle doesn’t want any fresh new talent for the future, or from any future generations, they’ll never afford it. The boat is sailing, and Seattle is now reserved for the elite big daddy men CEO’s, Lawyer, Doctors, and independently wealthy :)

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  17. 17
    richie says:

    According to Wall Street Journal, US is expected to seize Fannie and Freddie on Monday. The government will inject billions of dollars to both companies as a super preferred shareholder and fired all the executives on Monday. This means that all the equity of current common shares and preferred shares will be wiped out. Unlike other companies, Fannie and Freddie cannot file Chapter 11 or Chapter 13. The mounting foreclosures must be much worse than the government’s expectation; otherwise it would not take actions four to six months ahead of the schedule.

    WaMu may be the next on the list. Is Ron Sims an ignorant or a prevaricator? How can Seattle be different from the rest of the country?

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  18. 18
    jonness says:

    “By early next year, many will come to regret their decision to delay buying a home.”…Ron Sims

    “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.” …Albert Einstein

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  19. 19

    “WaMu may be the next on the list. Is Ron Sims an ignorant or a prevaricator?”

    Ron Sims is a habitual prevaricator. And a skillful politician. He’s not Twittering because he’s tech savvy or cool, he’ s just trying to tap into the Twitter voter.

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  20. 20
    The MD says:

    @17

    Richie is right. Ron Sims is practically retarded for making such transparent comments. I feel a new era is around the corner. And yes, WaMu is next on the list after Freddie and Fannie…

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080905/mortgage_giants_crisis.html

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  21. 21
    The MD says:

    Richie is right. Ron Sims is an idiot. WaMu is next after Freddie and Fannie….

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080905/mortgage_giants_crisis.html

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  22. 22
    MarkM says:

    Hey SteveH,

    No problem, I’m one of those folks who spells by sight and I had an inkling it was wrong. My bad… :-)

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  23. 23
    economist says:

    The government will inject billions of dollars to both companies as a super preferred shareholder

    This is a US taxpayer bailout of FF’s bondholders, the largest of which is China.

    Foreign aid for the Commies.

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  24. 24
    shawn says:

    “People” like this think they can come in at the end, after the hype has died, after reality has begun to sit in, and then after all that, they have the audacity to think that they can regurgitate some worn out incantation hoping to cause the insanity to resume. Wait, this is a politician, opps, disregard earlier statement.

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  25. 25
    Scotsman says:

    Ron sims is from Mars. I can’t believe the mother ship didn’t call him back a decade ago….

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    The MD says:

    I posted two comments last night that didn’t come through. I still don’t see them here today.

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  27. 27
    3rd Generation says:

    Consider the source.

    Extra Credit: Do a McCain. Ask Sims, the real estate expert how many homes he OWNS…

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  28. 28
    Garth says:

    economist ,

    Those “commies” have stabilized the US dollar.

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  29. 29
    george says:

    Question for Ron Sims:

    Did the economic forecasters you listen to predict the current housing slowdown? If so, why didn’t you warn buyers to wait in 2007? If not (and that’s what I’m guessing), then why are you quoting them now?

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  30. 30
    davidb says:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008159720_homeafford05.html

    According to a story in the Seattle Times from the AP, Seattle home prices are overvalued by nearly 20%!

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  31. 31
    economist says:

    Those “commies” have stabilized the US dollar.

    To serve their own goals.

    BTW why the quotes? What part of “Communist Party of China” don’t you understand?

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  32. 32
    The Tim says:

    The MD @ 26,

    Your comments were incorrectly caught by the automatic spam filter. I have restored them.

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  33. 33
    Demersus says:

    Looks like the fan blades are spinning full speed, prepare for splatter!

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  34. 34
    Thomas B. says:

    davisb @30
    Interesting article. I think Seattle is indeed overvalued. All one needs to look at is the median family income vs. the median housing value.

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  35. 35
    Pegasus says:

    Hey there must be some rules or laws that allow us to impeach this lying self-serving basstard for fraud, right?

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  36. 36
    david losh says:

    Thank you for letting me rant about our local politicians this week end. It’s a great thing to have a forum that shows an interest in our city.

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  37. 37
    jonness says:

    According to Business Week, Seattle is the 10th least affordable city in the nation:

    http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/08/0829_affordable_metros/21.htm

    According to Zillow, Seattle is nose diving while Yakima continues to appreciate:

    http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketReports.htm

    Hmmm, there must be a ton of jobs in Yakima.

    NSA Unemployment rate
    Year…..mo……Seattle……Yakima
    2008…01……….3.4…………..8.7
    2008…02……….3.4…………..8.2
    2008…03……….3.4…………..7.7
    2008…04……….2.9…………..6.9
    2008…05……….3.7…………..7.3
    2008…06……….3.6…………..7.3
    2008…07……….3.9…………..6.9

    OK. So it turns out Seattle is not overpriced due to its tech jobs and waterfront after all. Otherwise it would be out-appreciating Yakima. Oh well. Look on the bright side. You can still get a 0-down FHA loan before the Oct. deadline. It’s a great time to buy in Seattle. You’ll make millions off your home in a just a few short years. Better buy now or you’ll regret it by early next year. House prices are bound to start rapidly spiking up in the dead of winter due to 0-down loans no longer being available. And if you really want to get rich, quit your job at Microsoft and get a seasonal job picking fruit in Yakima. You’ll be a real estate billionaire in no time.

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  38. 38
    SeattleMoose says:

    Ron recently purchased a new Jaguar and the thought of not being able to give the City Council big raises (the Oink Syndrome) the new few years due to declining property tax revenues is a paralyzing thought indeed…

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  39. 39
    david losh says:

    I wanted to capture this quote:

    By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Business Writer

    Fannie, Freddie blind to the bubble

    Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac _ despite their robust cadre of economists and mortgage experts _ failed to heed warnings that the most dramatic housing bubble in U.S. history would burst.

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  40. 40
    Aaron says:

    Fannie and Freddie have been taken over by the feds…. chocolate… this’ll be a bumpy ride.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26591359/

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  41. 41
    mark says:

    “Foreign aid for the Commies.”

    And if we don’t guarantee the debt then the commies will quit funding the massive foreign aid packages that we need to keep our economy moving ahead.

    The federal debt limit has been raised to over $10 Trillion and our trade deficit is well over $500 Billion per year. All financed by ChiComs and Arab Terrorists.

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  42. 42
    Thomas B. says:

    By early next year, many will come to regret their decision to delay buying a home.

    – King County Executive Ron Sims, September 4, 2008

    The issue is not that people are waiting. The issue is people can’t afford to buy.

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  43. 43

    […] King County Executive Ron Sims’ “tweet” back in September: By early next year, many will come to regret their decision to delay buying a […]

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