Thanks for sticking up for me!

As you mentioned, last Fall I was the only local real estate columnist to predict that home prices would fall an average of 10-20% this year (depending on the neighborhood) while most of the others in the newspapers were saying the market would simply “slow down” with little to no appreciation.

I would have thought that Bubble readers would appreciate me sticking my neck out in print, but many seem to think that I was not bearish enough.

Well, just look at my predictions for this year and compare them to everybody else … I’d say the market is doing exactly what I expected it to do.

As for the mortgage bailout bill, philosphically I am totally opposed to it because those of us who pay their bills on time and don’t borrow more than we can afford are going to be forced to pay for the irresponsible people out there who got rich pushing “liar loans” and negative amortization “Option ARM” loans and all their customers who got loans that they never should have had.

But on the other hand, I realize that we are on the verge of a collapse of the entire worldwide financial system. The govenment had to do something to try and get the credit markets under control.

However, the bailout bill is just a bandaid on a compound fracture. I think the financial markets are headed for some very rough times over the next few years.

I would not be surprised to see the stock market drop another 40-50% over the next two years because of this.

How this affects the real estate market remains to be seen. If the flood of money from the government to bail out the banks causes inflation — as I thinnk it will — then real estate could actually benefit because real estate values generally go up in an inflationary environment.

But the wild card is how many people will lose jobs because of the recession. That could make the housing market worse because of the number of “distressed sellers.”

So only time will tell.

I plan to publish my predictions for next year’s housing market in my column in about a month.

Steve Tytler
Everett Heral Real Estae Columnist

The house in question is just one example. I have seen a number of such relistings where the asking price has in the interim come significantly down.

Good luck getting a straightforward unspun answer to this one from an RE agent.

Are buyers now more eager to snap up a good deal, what with declines, now than in July? Is it just as easy to get financing today as in July?

Anyway you will be happy to know the NEW 500 Realty Shirts are almost done and are about to be unveiled at the Home Shows this month. Come and feel the warmth and security they offer! But, you must mention any blog to get one. YES, even RCG!

Specifically around personal responsibility and the average person’s mentality that they can follow the formulas of yore… Buy your house, live in it for a couple of years, and expect to move up. I can’t wait until they realize that the timetables have shifted.

I’m a closet computer hacker and I took over Tim Ellis website. (it’s ok Tim, you can laugh).

Thanks again for the insight.

I just don’t think that applies here.

I think he’s got a wealth of great historical data to look at and draw conclusions from. The problem is, as I see it, he’s relying too much on past performance as his future indicator.

I think that reliance is what will eventually make him too optimistic on the declines.

What I would like to see from Tytler is whether he is pro or con on the bailout package in its current form and whether this “so called” credit freeze that comes with a failure of passage changes his predictions.

He’s got some insight and I, for one, would be interested in hearing his thoughts on that.