Comments on: Case-Shiller Tiers: Still Looking for the Bottom http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:02:55 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Case-Shiller Tiers: Synchronized Dropping | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-59791 Case-Shiller Tiers: Synchronized Dropping | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Wed, 29 Oct 2008 13:00:35 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-59791 [...] The low tier still has the largest overall drop for every post-peak month since number nine. As predicted last month, the low tier has now lost over 10% from the [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('59791','Case-Shiller Tiers: Synchronized Dropping | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('59791','Case-Shiller Tiers: Synchronized Dropping | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.','[...] The low tier still has the largest overall drop for every post-peak month since number nine. As predicted last month, the low tier has now lost over 10% from the [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] The low tier still has the largest overall drop for every post-peak month since number nine. As predicted last month, the low tier has now lost over 10% from the [...]
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]]> By: Read My Chart.. THIS. AIN’T. OVER. at The Great Unwind http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-58860 Read My Chart.. THIS. AIN’T. OVER. at The Great Unwind Sun, 12 Oct 2008 02:15:20 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-58860 [...] bubbly areas that have yet realize the losses ahead, notably the pacific northwest markets like Seattle and Portland. Evidence seems to indicate that the many of the loans made in these more expensive [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('58860','Read My Chart.. THIS. AIN’T. OVER. at The Great Unwind',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('58860','Read My Chart.. THIS. AIN’T. OVER. at The Great Unwind','[...] bubbly areas that have yet realize the losses ahead, notably the pacific northwest markets like Seattle and Portland. Evidence seems to indicate that the many of the loans made in these more expensive [...]',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] bubbly areas that have yet realize the losses ahead, notably the pacific northwest markets like Seattle and Portland. Evidence seems to indicate that the many of the loans made in these more expensive [...]
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]]> By: jason http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-58036 jason Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:59:12 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-58036 I noticed a house renting on Craigs list recently for $3500 per month. It turns out that this same home has been on the market in Medina for the past year, selling for 2,000,000. The mortgage on such an expensive home will be $10,000 to 13,000 per month. Why would anyone purchase this home rather than renting? There is no way the market will go higher in the next several years. The first round on Baby Boomers are retiring soon and this will be the next trend to bring the prices of homes down. No one seems to be talking about this, but I predict this will be a significant trend. Even if this large group stops buying up as they see the value of their 401K eroded, this will be a significant trend.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('58036','jason',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('58036','jason','I noticed a house renting on Craigs list recently for $3500 per month. It turns out that this same home has been on the market in Medina for the past year, selling for 2,000,000. The mortgage on such an expensive home will be $10,000 to 13,000 per month. Why would anyone purchase this home rather than renting? There is no way the market will go higher in the next several years. \r\n\r\nThe first round on Baby Boomers are retiring soon and this will be the next trend to bring the prices of homes down. No one seems to be talking about this, but I predict this will be a significant trend. Even if this large group stops buying up as they see the value of their 401K eroded, this will be a significant trend.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I noticed a house renting on Craigs list recently for $3500 per month. It turns out that this same home has been on the market in Medina for the past year, selling for 2,000,000. The mortgage on such an expensive home will be $10,000 to 13,000 per month. Why would anyone purchase this home rather than renting? There is no way the market will go higher in the next several years.

The first round on Baby Boomers are retiring soon and this will be the next trend to bring the prices of homes down. No one seems to be talking about this, but I predict this will be a significant trend. Even if this large group stops buying up as they see the value of their 401K eroded, this will be a significant trend.

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]]> By: mydquinn http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-58025 mydquinn Thu, 02 Oct 2008 05:49:08 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-58025 Do you have data on Seattle proper?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('58025','mydquinn',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('58025','mydquinn','Do you have data on Seattle proper?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Do you have data on Seattle proper?
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]]> By: what goes up must come down http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-58024 what goes up must come down Thu, 02 Oct 2008 05:44:08 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-58024 Scotsman you should compare the charter vs. the time when Bush has been in office and the time the Repugs controlled Congress -- notice anything? Prices doubled between 2000 and 2006, wow imagine that?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('58024','what goes up must come down',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('58024','what goes up must come down','Scotsman you should compare the charter vs. the time when Bush has been in office and the time the Repugs controlled Congress -- notice anything?\r\n\r\nPrices doubled between 2000 and 2006, wow imagine that?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Scotsman you should compare the charter vs. the time when Bush has been in office and the time the Repugs controlled Congress — notice anything?

Prices doubled between 2000 and 2006, wow imagine that?

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]]> By: Scotsman http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57946 Scotsman Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:38:33 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57946 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi9vXKWYaZ8<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57946','Scotsman',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57946','Scotsman','http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Hi9vXKWYaZ8',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hi9vXKWYaZ8
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]]> By: Lamont http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57945 Lamont Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:32:16 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57945 We have the global reserve currency in a global marketplace, so why is it surprising that we also have to bail out foreign holders of our debt paper when we have a systemic global crisis? If we don't, then we just create mark-to-market losses for foreign investors which winds up hurting us as their institutions fail and we take losses on CDS contracts. If you don't like all this, take a time machine back to roughly 1996 and tell Greenspan he is full of crap: http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&q=site%3Awww.federalreserve.gov+greenspan+derivatives&btnG=Search This one in particular is a classic: http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/Speeches/2005/20050505/default.htm<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57945','Lamont',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57945','Lamont','We have the global reserve currency in a global marketplace, so why is it surprising that we also have to bail out foreign holders of our debt paper when we have a systemic global crisis? If we don\'t, then we just create mark-to-market losses for foreign investors which winds up hurting us as their institutions fail and we take losses on CDS contracts.\r\n\r\nIf you don\'t like all this, take a time machine back to roughly 1996 and tell Greenspan he is full of crap:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.google.com\/search?num=100&hl=en&q=site%3Awww.federalreserve.gov+greenspan+derivatives&btnG=Search\r\n\r\nThis one in particular is a classic:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/Boarddocs\/Speeches\/2005\/20050505\/default.htm',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> We have the global reserve currency in a global marketplace, so why is it surprising that we also have to bail out foreign holders of our debt paper when we have a systemic global crisis? If we don’t, then we just create mark-to-market losses for foreign investors which winds up hurting us as their institutions fail and we take losses on CDS contracts.

If you don’t like all this, take a time machine back to roughly 1996 and tell Greenspan he is full of crap:

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&q=site%3Awww.federalreserve.gov+greenspan+derivatives&btnG=Search

This one in particular is a classic:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/Speeches/2005/20050505/default.htm

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]]> By: jon http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57944 jon Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:22:42 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57944 The section that Eleua appears to be referring to is this: "To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101." So that part only applies to foreign lenders to banks that have defaulted. That means the US is going to make good on the debt of failed banks. I assume that means failed US banks only. Given everything else, it is kind of reasonable that if we ask another country to bail out one of our banks and it fails, that we buy back the assets that were passed as collateral.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57944','jon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57944','jon','The section that Eleua appears to be referring to is this:\r\n\r\n\"To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.\"\r\n\r\nSo that part only applies to foreign lenders to banks that have defaulted. That means the US is going to make good on the debt of failed banks. I assume that means failed US banks only. Given everything else, it is kind of reasonable that if we ask another country to bail out one of our banks and it fails, that we buy back the assets that were passed as collateral.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The section that Eleua appears to be referring to is this:

“To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.”

So that part only applies to foreign lenders to banks that have defaulted. That means the US is going to make good on the debt of failed banks. I assume that means failed US banks only. Given everything else, it is kind of reasonable that if we ask another country to bail out one of our banks and it fails, that we buy back the assets that were passed as collateral.

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]]> By: Demersus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57943 Demersus Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:22:30 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57943 Jackson Wallace @ 3 Just ask yourself how much the annual median family income is in those areas. Then, multiple that amount by not more than 3.5x and you'll get your appropriate "ballpark" price-point. It's called fundementals and at some point things will revert to that. Which do you think will happen first; incomes doubling or housing prices falling by 50%? Could someone dip a brush in the common sense bucket and hit the bell curve with a broad stroke, please?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57943','Demersus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57943','Demersus','Jackson Wallace @ 3\r\n\r\nJust ask yourself how much the annual median family income is in those areas. Then, multiple that amount by not more than 3.5x and you\'ll get your appropriate \"ballpark\" price-point. It\'s called fundementals and at some point things will revert to that.\r\n\r\nWhich do you think will happen first; incomes doubling or housing prices falling by 50%?\r\n\r\nCould someone dip a brush in the common sense bucket and hit the bell curve with a broad stroke, please?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Jackson Wallace @ 3

Just ask yourself how much the annual median family income is in those areas. Then, multiple that amount by not more than 3.5x and you’ll get your appropriate “ballpark” price-point. It’s called fundementals and at some point things will revert to that.

Which do you think will happen first; incomes doubling or housing prices falling by 50%?

Could someone dip a brush in the common sense bucket and hit the bell curve with a broad stroke, please?

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]]> By: Demersus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57942 Demersus Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:16:21 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57942 This is anecdotal regarding the condo sales vs. rental markets. I live in in West Seattle. For many months, perhaps as long as two years, there has been a billboard advertising "West Water Seattle" condos starting in the "low $200Ks". Today, I noticed a drastic change in their advert: http://www.westwaterrentals.com The billboard says rents starting at $950/month. You'll notice that the URL resolves to the exact same site as this: http://www.westwaterseattle.com Yeah, those rental prices are poised to rocket, ahem...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57942','Demersus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57942','Demersus','This is anecdotal regarding the condo sales vs. rental markets. I live in in West Seattle. For many months, perhaps as long as two years, there has been a billboard advertising \"West Water Seattle\" condos starting in the \"low $200Ks\". Today, I noticed a drastic change in their advert:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.westwaterrentals.com\r\n\r\nThe billboard says rents starting at $950\/month.\r\n\r\nYou\'ll notice that the URL resolves to the exact same site as this:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.westwaterseattle.com\r\n\r\nYeah, those rental prices are poised to rocket, ahem...',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This is anecdotal regarding the condo sales vs. rental markets. I live in in West Seattle. For many months, perhaps as long as two years, there has been a billboard advertising “West Water Seattle” condos starting in the “low $200Ks”. Today, I noticed a drastic change in their advert:

http://www.westwaterrentals.com

The billboard says rents starting at $950/month.

You’ll notice that the URL resolves to the exact same site as this:

http://www.westwaterseattle.com

Yeah, those rental prices are poised to rocket, ahem…

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]]> By: Bits_of_Real_Panther http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57941 Bits_of_Real_Panther Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:12:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57941 "This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt." It's true, the real reason for the sham bailout has finally come to light thanks to Brad Sherman. Now the big question is will the "no"s in the House show some backbone even after the Senate signs off on this gawdawful plan<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57941','Bits_of_Real_Panther',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57941','Bits_of_Real_Panther','\"This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt.\" \r\n\r\nIt\'s true, the real reason for the sham bailout has finally come to light thanks to Brad Sherman. \r\n\r\nNow the big question is will the \"no\"s in the House show some backbone even after the Senate signs off on this gawdawful plan',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt.”

It’s true, the real reason for the sham bailout has finally come to light thanks to Brad Sherman.

Now the big question is will the “no”s in the House show some backbone even after the Senate signs off on this gawdawful plan

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]]> By: Jackson Wallace http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57940 Jackson Wallace Wed, 01 Oct 2008 19:04:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57940 Your chart more or less confirms what I have noticed - that prices doubled between 2000 and 2006, meaning homes selling for 350k in skyway, tukwila, and shoreline once sold for 175k, and homes in wford, queen anne, and magnolia that sell for 600k used to sell for 300k. This is more or less par with my observations. The chart and my surfing on Windermere show that the decline has either only just begun, or wont materialize because the general influx of migrants from pricier markets will keep us from falling all the way back to 2000 levels. Lets face it, its a long fall. Not only that, the appreciation really started in 1995 with Microsofts explosion, with a hard but brief detour in 2001-2002 after 911 and the dotcom bubble. I dont know who is still paying overpaying nearly 100% for houses, but they are either idiots or smarter than those of who think prices will fall.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57940','Jackson Wallace',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57940','Jackson Wallace','Your chart more or less confirms what I have noticed - that prices doubled between 2000 and 2006, meaning homes selling for 350k in skyway, tukwila, and shoreline once sold for 175k, and homes in wford, queen anne, and magnolia that sell for 600k used to sell for 300k. This is more or less par with my observations. The chart and my surfing on Windermere show that the decline has either only just begun, or wont materialize because the general influx of migrants from pricier markets will keep us from falling all the way back to 2000 levels. Lets face it, its a long fall. Not only that, the appreciation really started in 1995 with Microsofts explosion, with a hard but brief detour in 2001-2002 after 911 and the dotcom bubble. I dont know who is still paying overpaying nearly 100% for houses, but they are either idiots or smarter than those of who think prices will fall.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Your chart more or less confirms what I have noticed – that prices doubled between 2000 and 2006, meaning homes selling for 350k in skyway, tukwila, and shoreline once sold for 175k, and homes in wford, queen anne, and magnolia that sell for 600k used to sell for 300k. This is more or less par with my observations. The chart and my surfing on Windermere show that the decline has either only just begun, or wont materialize because the general influx of migrants from pricier markets will keep us from falling all the way back to 2000 levels. Lets face it, its a long fall. Not only that, the appreciation really started in 1995 with Microsofts explosion, with a hard but brief detour in 2001-2002 after 911 and the dotcom bubble. I dont know who is still paying overpaying nearly 100% for houses, but they are either idiots or smarter than those of who think prices will fall.
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]]> By: Eleua http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57938 Eleua Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:53:57 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57938 This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt. Read in Section 112. It's there. Paulson said the Administration would veto the bill if it did not include this provision. The US got a margin call. The Chinese are forcing us to take back not only the bad US mortgage dreck they bought with their trade surplus dollars, but take all of theirs as well. I'm not making this up.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57938','Eleua',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57938','Eleua','This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt. \r\n\r\nRead in Section 112. It\'s there. Paulson said the Administration would veto the bill if it did not include this provision.\r\n\r\nThe US got a margin call. The Chinese are forcing us to take back not only the bad US mortgage dreck they bought with their trade surplus dollars, but take all of theirs as well.\r\n\r\nI\'m not making this up.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This bailout is designed to bailout FOREIGN holders of real-estate based bad debt.

Read in Section 112. It’s there. Paulson said the Administration would veto the bill if it did not include this provision.

The US got a margin call. The Chinese are forcing us to take back not only the bad US mortgage dreck they bought with their trade surplus dollars, but take all of theirs as well.

I’m not making this up.

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]]> By: Robert Wojciechowski http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/01/case-shiller-tiers-still-looking-for-the-bottom/#comment-57932 Robert Wojciechowski Wed, 01 Oct 2008 17:18:28 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=2882#comment-57932 I think the govt can simply pay for some of the loans in Seattle and the US. Then the prices would go up. So it all depends on the govt. If say the govt says that it will pick up the interest on all loans then prices will go up because affordability will be up. The only issue to worry about is inflation. But as long it is a continued trend this will stabilize at some point. No worries.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('57932','Robert Wojciechowski',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('57932','Robert Wojciechowski','I think the govt can simply pay for some of the loans in Seattle and the US. Then the prices would go up. So it all depends on the govt. If say the govt says that it will pick up the interest on all loans then prices will go up because affordability will be up. \r\n\r\nThe only issue to worry about is inflation. But as long it is a continued trend this will stabilize at some point. No worries.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I think the govt can simply pay for some of the loans in Seattle and the US. Then the prices would go up. So it all depends on the govt. If say the govt says that it will pick up the interest on all loans then prices will go up because affordability will be up.

The only issue to worry about is inflation. But as long it is a continued trend this will stabilize at some point. No worries.

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