I remember that around the year 2000 the DOW had just got done hitting 11,000. Right now it is below 10,000. I saw a chart that showed volume in sales beneath median sales price from 2004 to now. The thing that most stood out to me is the incredible dip in volume. Not an expert in real estate, but in stocks and futures, that is a pretty clear indication that a major change in trend is beginning. The prices are starting to trend down now.

I am moving to the area but I sure as hell don’t plan on letting go of my home on the east coast or investing in a property in Seattle, until I see prices (for my home at least) down around the 2000 levels. On the plus side I just saw a great 4BR 2Bath home in Covington for around 160K which is what I paid for my 3BR 1 Bath back in 2004, so there are a few bargains out there starting to show up. I am still going to wait on buying for at least 6 months to try to find more and better bargains because I sincerely believe that they are coming whether people want to sell or not. I don’t think that many of them will have a choice.

“SEATTLE IS DIFFERENT, SEATTLE IS DIFFERENT, I CAN’T HEAR YOU, LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA!!!!!”

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/brierdudley/2008/10/03/developing_story_microsoft_hir.html

These are examples of what happens when you use a misleading statistic and make a list from it. They’re comparing July ‘07 to July ‘08, and most of the other cities mentioned had already tanked to very low sales by July ‘07; July ‘07 was still a so-so month in Seattle. So yes, our YOY drop is the biggest, but if you did July ‘08 to July ‘05 it would probably be a different picture.

Whoever said Forbes is trash is correct. They love making lists, and usually compile them with next to no effort or thought put into the list.

One other note: explaining the reason why prices will drop to RE Agents seems to be a very difficult task. But, please spread the word. The sooner the industry knows what the expectations of the buyers are, the sooner the prices will align themselves to expectations.

I did not get pressured I found the house myself and walked up to the builder and made a direct transaction getting it about 10% below that market.

Thinking maybe I should go and default on my mortgage to have it reduced by the bailout and sit back with a lower payment.

Wow, can you not afford your payment? Or do you just not feel that you should have to pay? Do you feel like you go pressured into buying?

Taking that into account new bailout will reduce someones mortgage to 2004 levels as well. And then they will just sit. :)

Thinking maybe I should go and default on my mortgage to have it reduced by the bailout and sit back with a lower payment. Not that it is killing me.

THe Flop thread is not a validation of anything, most of the house there are past the JUMBO limits and are at 7.5% financing, which is the upper echelon of buyers, which are sitting on the sidelines and taking a break.

David, IMHO flops thread is not really valid real experiences of buyers.

No, but what you can see that even at list prices from 4 to 5 years ago the houses are not moving. If I’m a buyer right now, I know what reality is and have more wiggle room than a seller who still wants to sell their house at 2006 prices. Like I said, the emotion on this board is coming from sellers or people who work in the “industry”. All that media hype must be getting them down.

RTFM = Read The F*** Manual

DYOFW = Do You Own F*** Work

Here’s a new one:

DLYFPIYWTSM = Dramatically Lower Your F*** Price If You Want To Sell, Moroon

A word of advice for the sellers, if you’re lucky to hold on to your job then you may have a slim chance to wait till the storm passes (even with the 700b bail out it may at best be the end of beginning; Warren Buffett calls the economy lying flat from a cardiac arrest).

With 2000+ sq ft that heating bill’s gonna hurt (PSE just announced a 10% increase), with yard maintenance cost going up, property tax going up for sure, that SUV tab tax is going up, junior and wifey are not going to sacrefice their life styles……etc….good luck to ya…….

@The Tim – perhaps strong in comparison, but still got some tough sledding. For me, some consolidation in my dept. But I suspect it will get worse overall, no one is immune.

http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=1434

In my neighborhood, people aren’t even getting offers at 2003 list prices.

It seems like most of the emotion is coming from the sellers…..not the buyers.

But everyone in the Seattle area is independently wealthy so that shouldn’t be a problem. We’re special. That explains the constant appreciation.

Rightly so, they should be scared. Who wants to buy into a depreciating asset? They are focusing on short-term, not long term, though. Prices still have a long way to fall, though.

Seeing the network your IP address comes from, I’m curious why you believe your job to be in jeopardy. I thought [your company] was supposedly one of the strong ones still standing?

You could tell a buyer that his payment right now will be $2000 a month for a $600k house, and that the house is below market, 80% of the buyers are scared. Thats the fact of the matter.

P&I on a 6% 30 year fixed for a 480K loan (80% of 600K) is still almost 2900 a month. Taxes and insurance easily put that up to 3500. The reason buyers are staying on the sidelines is that they don’t believe the BS that their RE professionals are selling them. And they don’t have the cash…..

Didja notice that the demand curve slopes down? Now what does that mean?

Except for places like Detroit and Cleveland, that list is crap. The reason houses aren’t selling isn’t because they are hard to sell, it’s because sellers aren’t willing to accept market price.

Uhm…yeah well if you start with an obscenely inflated price and then reduce it substantially to reach just extremely inflated, guess what, your home isn’t going to sell in this market.

Call me when prices hit YEAR 2000 levels in our area!!

Never happen… not now that the Rescue plan has been signed by the house and senate.

Um, it actually IS HAPPENING.

I believe Seattle should be on that list, but I feel Miami should top it. Too many condos and not enough people with money to buy.

I agree Jacksonville, FL should be high on the list. The place is overbuilt on speculation with no associated increase in well paying jobs. I think the only major company with a headquarters there is CSX. Not a very diverse job market.

St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland? I thought they weren’t boom markets. Interesting.

Manhattan!!! It’s going to get a lot worse for them since the investment bank business is crashing and there is consolidation. UBS already laid off 2,000 IB types. Boston is also going to have a rough time.

Never happen… not now that the Rescue plan has been signed by the house and senate.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/11/29/forbes-seattle-continues-its-ascent/

Now we’re the #1 worst place to be selling a house. We’ve come a long way!

Housing Trends
America’s Most Stable Housing Markets
Matt Woolsey, 10.01.07, 4:00 PM ET

Nationwide, home prices are falling, sales are sluggish and the number of foreclosures is mounting. Ask any economist and you’ll hear that things are bad, and likely to get worse.

Unless you live in Seattle, where the market is slowing but fundamentals remain strong.

The Emerald City has experienced strong price appreciation over the last six quarters, and that’s expected to continue in the new year, though at a slower pace. In addition to a very low housing inventory and a strong sales rate, there are few non-conforming and high-risk loans on the books than in other cities, which means the area will likely see fewer defaults in the coming months than the rest of the country’s markets.

Forbes is such a worthless rag, people should just ignore it.