Comments on: NWMLS: Inventory Level, Sales UP, Prices Down

By: One in Five Pending Sales Failed to Close in Q3 | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:47:59 +0000

[...] pending sales stats increasingly more useless as a measure of market health. So pending sales were up 15% year-over-year in September. Does that really mean much if 20% of those sales never actually close (vs. just 7% the year [...]

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By: NWMLS: Home Prices Rewound to Late 2005 | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:10:51 +0000

[...] interesting snippet that’s outside of the usual data I include in this monthly post. Despite last month’s significant bump in pending sales (up 15% YOY), closed sales this month failed to experience a [...]

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By: The Tim

The Tim — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 16:29:10 +0000

My pleasure. Thank you!

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By: Jillayne

Jillayne — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 06:24:06 +0000

Hey Tim,

I’m using your graph in the classroom tomorrow with a big “from SeattleBubble.com” at the bottom.

Thank you for the graph!

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By: Redfin gets a haircut | Seattle Metblogs

Redfin gets a haircut | Seattle Metblogs — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:53:33 +0000

[...] It’s far worse for the real estate market, as shown by plummeting prices and rising inventories in Seattle. [...]

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By: The Tim

The Tim — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:21:09 +0000

Roger,

Yes, the primary charts I post are based on King County SFH median. As to why I do not include condos, I point you to this post: Seattle Bubble Stats: Where are the Condos?

Also note that King County condo data is available in the spreadsheets I link to each month, I just don’t post graphs on them.

Reply – Seattle Bubble Stats: Where are the Condos?<\/a>\r\n\r\nAlso note that King County condo data is available in the spreadsheets I link to each month, I just don\'t post graphs on them.',''); return false;">Quote

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By: Roger Ingalls

Roger Ingalls — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 23:17:32 +0000

Tim:

Good graphs!

The tone is factual and cool…why do people think you are a rock throwing maniac?

You seem a bit more visionary these days…

Do all of your stats use the median SFR price, rather than the median home price (which would include condos), and why?

I ask, because many of the historical stats I have researched use median home price.

Hopefully you’ve already answered this a few times, and can give me a canned response.

Thanks!

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By: Price Drop Dynamics | Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs

Price Drop Dynamics | Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:32:42 +0000

[...] Locally, the NWMLS reports Pending Sales up 4.1% from Year Ago, Total Inventory Unchanged, while Seattle Bubble recaps King County SFH pendings to be up 15% from same time last [...]

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:33:12 +0000

EconE,
I agree with you.
I myself looked at a condo for my folks retirement, and was quite frankly amused at 1200 Sq Ft for $650k + $.50 per Sq Ft of HOA. Which came out to be a joke. Granted that condo sold no units period.

I however do not agree that buying anything right now is a bad thing. It all depends on what a person is buying. If they are buying a home 20% off the current market, and understand that the reality is it can go down 10-20% more, then they are making an educated decision.
If it is someone helocing their house to 100% of value and barely makng payments, that is a risky and reckless behavior.

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By: “It’s Only Going to Get Better for Me” | Redfin Corporate Blog

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:31:59 +0000

[...] Time was, the problem with real estate was too many listings, at unrealistic prices. But with home-owners anxious to sell before the holiday season, we recently saw the average cumulative price drop exceed 10%. And with almost no new listings entering the market, across the markets we cover the number of homes for sale has actually decreased, by about 3% since August. In some places, transaction volumes increased. [...]

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By: Matthew

Matthew — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:07:07 +0000

Anyone who thought they were going to let the shorts back into the market today without some sort of action is insane.

Another stick save attempt by Bernanke, but it’s not going to work, I bet the rally fades by the afternoon or tomorrow.

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By: Buceri

Buceri — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:37:51 +0000

Fed cut rate by 1/2 point at about 7AM eastern. Dow futures are up.

Like Steven Colbert said: “this is not a collapse; we still have over 9000 points to go!!!”

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By: b

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:56:38 +0000

DJIA down 1k tomorrow? I think without some sort of shock and awe announcement, the 401k rush to the exists might give us a circuit breaker day this week.

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By: EconE

EconE — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:51:27 +0000

BTW…anyone else seeing the nosedive the NIKKEI is taking? WOW! it’s like they are in a race with the DJIA and they were waaaaaay higher than we ever were.

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By: EconE

EconE — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:48:37 +0000

Mukoh…

You have a different interest in RE than most of the posters here. I don’t doubt that you find properties that suit your investment strategies. Many of the posters are looking for in-city from what it appears and are not looking for “investment” properties, and as far as I am concerned, I don’t think that they will ever get what they are looking for at “investment” prices as there are plenty of professionals that do this for a living that will beat them to the “fixer” with character and good bones…especially the ones the have been owned for a long time and haven’t been HELOC’d to death. Obviously, I can’t follow every area like a hawk. I specialize in Downtown condominiums myself. The quality level for the $psf for the condos that have sold in the last 3-6 months is much higher than it was in 2007 yet isn’t reflected in the median. Some hefty losses, both realized and unrealized are being incurred by the plethora of flippers.

I highly doubt that even yourself would pay 500k + 500 Homeowners dues + property taxes for a unit that you could only rent for 1800/mo. And rents on the high end stuff here downtown are actually down in every building that I have followed. And I follow many of them.

Renli3d…

I guess I can let you pass with a daylight basement. ;^) Your place looks pretty tranquil. If it works for you….more power to you. I’m curious about the “dream kitchen” however…kitchens and bathrooms sell a house these days. Is the built in Fridge Sub-Zero or Viking? Gas cooking? Granite or Carrara Marble counters? Solid Wood Cabinetry?

Just funnin’ with ya.

We live in two completely different markets (SFR in Kent vs Downtown Seattle/SLU condos) and there is much more denial with the sellers of their $500-$1000 psf condos that are continuing to grow like mushrooms in the downtown/SLU area…well…many areas. Your area has obviously reached a much greater level of sanity than my neck of the woods with regards to asking prices.

Reply – many of them.<\/i>\r\n\r\n\r\nRenli3d...\r\n\r\nI guess I can let you pass with a daylight basement. ;^) Your place looks pretty tranquil. If it works for you....more power to you. I\'m curious about the \"dream kitchen\" however...kitchens and bathrooms sell a house these days. Is the built in Fridge Sub-Zero or Viking? Gas cooking? Granite or Carrara Marble counters? Solid Wood Cabinetry?\r\n\r\nJust funnin\' with ya.\r\n\r\nWe live in two completely different markets (SFR in Kent vs Downtown Seattle\/SLU condos) and there is much more denial with the sellers of their $500-$1000 psf condos that are continuing to grow like mushrooms in the downtown\/SLU area...well...many areas. Your area has obviously reached a much greater level of sanity than my neck of the woods with regards to asking prices.',''); return false;">Quote

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:16:24 +0000

EconE,
One notable commercial property I am buying for future apartments, is 2.5 acres, at same price it was purchased for in 1997. Bank unloading their REOs.

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:14:52 +0000

I think a basement should count if it has a bathroom.

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By: renli3d

renli3d — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:49:26 +0000

the basement shouldn’t be counted as square footage regardless of whether it is finished or not.

EconE, not even a daylight basement? :P

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:47:23 +0000

EconE,
I don’t buy homes, accept on rare occasions when they are in multi family zones.
As far as commercial deals, not going to show you anything. Its however a ripe pickin time.

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By: EconE

EconE — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:41:08 +0000

Show me the money Mukoh. Foreclosures still seem to be rising.

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:36:04 +0000

renli3d,
There are no good deals out there. As long as EconE and DJ say so then it is all a farse, and the sale of that listing is not real. Its all realtors, you know those guys in Lexuses driving around fudging statistics. So stop the BS.

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By: EconE

EconE — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:34:20 +0000

Fair enough explanation renli3d. My bad.

Still don’t think it’s a good value (IMO) and the basement shouldn’t be counted as square footage regardless of whether it is finished or not. Again…JMO.

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By: mukoh

mukoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:32:41 +0000

EconE,
I thought today the exact same things that they were talking about were the Option Arm Resets? And actually modyfying them to paypable levels.
Just look at the latest settlement with BofA and Washington state and other states.

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By: renli3d

renli3d — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:14:50 +0000

Ah, easy to explain. My house was built in 1974. It was originally on a six acre parcel. Before I purchased the house it was subdivided and a brand new community is being built around my original house. So my statement about the house being in a new development still holds true. Every house built around mine will be brand new. I hope that clears it up.

Richie, my house isn’t 3450 sq/ft, and it is in north Kent (Garrison Creek, next to Panther Lake). I work in downtown Seattle and the commute isn’t bad at all. It’s not technically Seattle but I include Kent in the greater Seattle area. If you’re currently looking at homes don’t set your price filter for homes under your max price. For example, if you’re looking at 350K homes, don’t set your max price in Redfin to 350K. What you should do is set it much higher, say $425K and find a house you like that may be listed at 400K, or 425K and offer $350K instead. That’s what I did and it worked for me.

Boy, you guys are tough. All I wanted was to suggest that you can get a relatively good deal today if you offer to buy a home for what it will be worth further down in the down cycle.

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By: Everett_Tom

Everett_Tom — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:01:48 +0000

Everett Tom…I see the google cache of the MLS listing but I still see inconsistencies in the story….and lots of “realtor speak”

I was able to purchase a huge 3060 sq/ft rambler on .38 acres that backs up to a greenbelt with a creek and no close neighbors in a brand new, very safe and quiet development

doesn’t really jive with this statement…

My building inspector told me the house was the Taj Mahal when it was built in 1974.

‘nuf said

I see your point..

When I looked it up, I saw the bunch of new townhomes that had popped up nearby, and took those for what he meant.

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By: deejayoh

deejayoh — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:50:02 +0000

It’s in Kent…

Does that qualify as Seattle?

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By: EconE

EconE — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:30:33 +0000

Everett Tom…I see the google cache of the MLS listing but I still see inconsistencies in the story….and lots of “realtor speak”

I was able to purchase a huge 3060 sq/ft rambler on .38 acres that backs up to a greenbelt with a creek and no close neighbors in a brand new, very safe and quiet development

doesn’t really jive with this statement…

My building inspector told me the house was the Taj Mahal when it was built in 1974.

‘nuf said

Reply – I was able to purchase a huge 3060 sq\/ft rambler on .38 acres that backs up to a greenbelt with a creek and no close neighbors in a brand new<\/b>, very safe and quiet development<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\ndoesn\'t really jive with this statement...\r\n\r\nMy building inspector told me the house was the Taj Mahal when it was built in 1974<\/b>.<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n\'nuf said',''); return false;">Quote

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By: Everett_Tom

Everett_Tom — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:39:41 +0000

using Google’s cache pages you can still find info on this house, it certainly lines up with everything renli3d has claimed…
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By: richie

richie — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:35:39 +0000

Reli3D post 50:

Where did you find a good deal like that? Is it quite a distance from downtown Seattle. I have been looking houses in 103, 105, 115 109 and 119 areas over the last 12 months. I checked the listings often. I have never found a 3450 square-feet house for $360,000.
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By: renli3d

renli3d — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:05:48 +0000

That rambler scenario sounds like a coached shilling.

Hello EconE,

I’m not familiar with that term, what is a coached schilling?

Here is the mls number of the house I purchased: 28096288.

Since it’s no longer listed I’m not sure how you would pull it up.

Personally, I hope home prices drop considerably to the 250K median level or lower. It is what’s best for society as a whole; families should not need to stretch to purchase an average home. Families need to be able to fund their retirements and childrens’ education and I feel lower home prices would increase our quality of life.
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By: EconE

EconE — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:24:22 +0000

No…no good values out there yet.

Every bubble area that has busted had it’s share of knife catchers.

Wait for the Option-ARM resets. No loan modifications for those schlubs.

Buy from a bank…not from a builder or a homeowner (of less than 10 years.)

That rambler scenario sounds like a coached shilling.
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By: mukoh

mukoh — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:37:12 +0000

People are asking why would anyone be buying?
Its not if you are buying it is what are you buying. There is good values out there, however hard they are to find for people. That rambler scenario sounds awesome though.
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By: CostcoMike

CostcoMike — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:22:36 +0000

@31

“Most people do not treating housing like the stock market”

As a columnist I would expect you to double check grammer and spelling. I wonder if you double check your predictions and data?
I have been reading this blog for almost a year now and this is my first post. I couldn’t help but comment.

I can’t say when the bottom will hit but I don’t think we are there quite yet.
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By: Guy Noir

Guy Noir — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 17:09:17 +0000

Tim,

At this point, I would attribute the rise in pendings to DAP (down payment assistance) going away.

“Relitters” all across the country were plugging the DAP over the last couple of months before it went away. It would seem that many took the bait and were “hooked”.
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By: david losh

david losh — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:05:11 +0000

“the world’s leading central banks will cut interest rates soon” Taken from Rueters

You can’t borrow your way out of debt.

The problem I have with mortgage people today is that they are creating loans today backed by assets that seem to be declining in value. The interest rates make no difference to the value of the asset.

The entire financial market is collapsing because loan representatives are in the field convincing people that they can qualify for a mortgage. So what?

You talk about Real Estate agents, but you people seem to give loan representatives a free pass here.

I’ve read here several times about how responsible it is to save up for a down payment. Why? The lender is lending on an asset. Cars are one thing, dealers can come take a car. Properties would need to sell for the value lent. That’s just not happening

When we talk about Real Estate Owned properties they are wholey and totally over priced. They have less value than is owed. Once the market stopped appreciating those assets became worth less.

Still today aside from the cheer leaders of Real Estate mortgage reps are saying it’s a great time to refinance. You should refinance your ARM before it’s too late and yes, you will be priced out forever.

This is not business as usual. People need to pay off what they owe. Paying fees for a mortgage makes no sense. Lenders should be paying borrowers to get them to buy those crappy loans on an over priced asset.

Generating more loans today is irresponsible when the tax payers are paying billions of dollars to cover the bets of the loans made in the past.

It has abosolutely nothing to do with the ability to pay, it has everything to do with the value of the asset.
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By: The Tim

The Tim — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:39:02 +0000

Buceri,

I usually only post that one with the Case-Shiller data. The latest one is in this post from September 30.
Reply – this post from September 30<\/a>.',''); return false;">Quote

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By: Buceri

Buceri — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:59:25 +0000

Tim:

I don’t see the % off peak graph.
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By: george

george — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:17:03 +0000

Sounds like a few buyers jumped in before the financial crisis struck. How many of them are having second thoughts today?

It’s a Great Time to Buy™ if you think demand for housing in Seattle will not be affected by the US recession and global economic downturn…
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By: patient

patient — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 07:06:22 +0000

Falling prices under volume is seen as sales pressure and a weakening market price wise. Rising prices under volume is a sign of strength. At least in the stock market.
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By: Ira Sacharoff

Ira Sacharoff — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:11:59 +0000

July 2007 marked Seattle’s price peak. But inventories had been rising for a while, and sales were down, yet prices continued to rise. This led some “experts” to proclaim that house prices would never fall again, but some of us saw that a sustained rise in inventory and a sustained slowing in sales could only lead to lower prices.
Now we’ve seen a rise in pending sales, and inventory seems to have stabilized. It very well be an anamoly, the real estate market just works that way, but what if we did see several more months or increased pending sales and inventories that either remained stable or dropped?

I don’t see that as likely…I think we’ll see dropping prices til next summer at least, but aren’t rising pending sales and stable or dropping inventories an indicator of something?
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By: Matthew

Matthew — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:48:14 +0000

Wow, I’m looking at the charts but I’m failing to see a “mini housing boom” anywhere in the data. Month-Month looks pretty flat to me (for both inventory and sales) and October 2007 was pretty dismal so a small YOY bounce in pending sales (when we also have an increase in listings) really doesn’t seem like a “mini housing boom” to me. Small bounce, yes. Mini boom, not so much.
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By: Demersus

Demersus — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:43:33 +0000

Russell @ 20; I don’t take glee in learning that people are loosing hard earned money. What I take satisfaction in is the fact that our economy is finally coming back to reality. If you’re making $75K/year, you have no business buying a half million dollar home. And you certainly don’t deserve my tax money to bail you out if you did.
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By: Seeker

Seeker — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:34:16 +0000

Why would anyone buy a house now? House prices will be much lower than what it is now in 09 and best case scenario will be stable entire 2010. Soon we will see median Kirkland/Bellevue home(no condo) price will be again around 350k. Anyone willing to have L Washington view will be needing to pay the 650k premium (instead of 900k or more)!!

We buyers should just sit back, relax and enjoy the price reductions.
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By: Ray Pepper

Ray Pepper — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:28:11 +0000

LOL………….Sad but true………………. I have about 10 of the shirts that I keep with me all the time and I was camping once and…………………………………………………
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By: mikal

mikal — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:13:22 +0000

That shirt would also be good if you are short TP.
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By: Ira Sacharoff

Ira Sacharoff — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:08:02 +0000

“Ray, can’t make it, I have plans to clean my sewer line that whole time. Save me a shirt!”

But there’s no better shirt to wear while cleaning a sewer line than a 500 Realty shirt.
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By: buyStocks

buyStocks — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:59:49 +0000

David,
If we had only approved loans with the traditional 20% down, couldn’t we have avoided the housing bubble. If we allow less down again at a later date, won’t we just create another bubble?
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By: Dave Lincoln

Dave Lincoln — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:59:14 +0000

OK, let’s keep it clean fellows, mmkay? I did, pretty much.
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By: Ray Pepper

Ray Pepper — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:50:26 +0000

Dave I smell what your cooking! It was funny. Come on Mikal…Plugging myself? ………Your a pretty kinky guy aren’t ya!
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By: Dave Lincoln

Dave Lincoln — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 04:42:57 +0000

More like, I’d do anything not to go to the home show. That was just a joke, and I know you are a good-humored guy. But, you are probably right about my diet – too much pony jerky, bad for the colon.
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