Where are you finding mortgage rates at less than 6% on a 30yr fixed? I’m seeing BECU 30yr fixed at 6.35%.

You have some logic in your thinking about buying a house. Rays makes a few great points in his post.

I am sure that you are considering all sides of the debate. If you look around I am sure that you can find some great deals out there.

I am also hearing rumors that Zillow has also laid off a bunch of staff. Anyone have any info?

It they did they have a pr person who avoids posting that kind of news on their blog in the afternoon so it does not wind up on the evening news like redfin did. Mr Kelman hosted a clinic yesterday on why the CEO doing PR himself for a startup is a bad idea.

Yes, prices will continue to trend line down but the property you desire may not be available next summer. Make your offer based on current conditions and assume another 10-20% decline ahead. Or as some of the Bubble heads contend assume prices will drop another 40%……..Good Lord!

Just keep looking. Real estate is not rocket science. Just BUY far below anyone else has in the neighborhood and look at what the value was back in 2001 on the subject property.

The tools you need are all around you!

Magnolia, Queen Anne and North Admiral (among others) will always be desirable locales to put up stakes so it’s more than likely that a home bought there will return something upon future sale (obviously many, many years away). But then again, I’m not into real estate as solely an investor, it’s still a primary residence.

Besides the flip side to buying now is to buy at a time when the economy is better and you’ve got more competition and higher prices. Or you can time it for when we’re at the absolute bottom, but I’m not smart enough to time that so now still seems pretty darn good.

Since prices are extremely likely to continue to fall, and fall a lot.

As simple as that.

Another reason is that during a recession/depression it could be argued that it’s
good to keep your funds in a safer place and avoid taking on new debt.

I agree that Redfin is changing the property buying process for the better, but I was just wondering why you think that buying a home right now is a “huge mistake”.

“I think anyone that buy’s a home now is making a huge mistake…”

Just curious as to your reasons why.

Of course the low volume has to affect everybody in real estate.

Good luck Redfin, I love your idea of true representation that is not just interested in claiming a commission.

fancypants, I think you should be happy that you didn’t put your retirement money plus a 6% mortgage in a home in this environment. The growth on that money minus the interrest payments are not very likely to be higher than your stock investments if you have 10+ years to retirement.

But it’s clear I shouldn’t touch it now for at least five years or maybe longer. Hence… maybe I won’t buy.

In fact I have more immediate money in safer bond instruments and even those have lost 5-10%. Yuck.

Wish I had blown my money on a house rather than the stock market (even though it is technically retirement money).

I buy into their business model as I didn’t need anyone helping me find a house, just all the steps after that part.

Getting the 2% from their commission was also pretty awesome. That paid closing costs plus a little extra back to us in the form of a check (non-taxable).

Too bad about the news. I wish them well and hope to see them thrive.

It’s not the only one contracting. The number of licensed real-estate agents statewide has dropped from 32,516 last December to 30,362 in September, according to the Washington State Department of Licensing.

So the number of real estate agents is declining at a 9% per annum clip in the state. I’d say Redfin is trying to get ahead of the curve. And remember, much of their business is in California

I know many of the bigger chains are closing down and consolidating offices. Many agents (myself included) are now looking for other work to supplement their income.

Many will just keep their license active, so it’s very hard to say how many have quit. I would imagine that it’s more than the 20% redfin number.

David McManus // Oct 14, 2008 at 7:24 am

Mike2 // Oct 14, 2008 at 4:38 am

It appears Redfin is cutting more than just agents.

http://www.kellidiane.com/archives/blog/1086.html

Uhhh, where did it say they were agents only being cut? If they’re like any other RE firm, the agents make their money on commission and the inhouse staff get paid a salary.

From the Seattle times article :

In an industry where most real-estate agents work on commission only, Redfin is an anomaly. Agents are on staff and on salary; commissions are shared with buyers and sellers.

Doh, my bad.

Mike2 // Oct 14, 2008 at 4:38 am

It appears Redfin is cutting more than just agents.

http://www.kellidiane.com/archives/blog/1086.html

Uhhh, where did it say they were agents only being cut? If they’re like any other RE firm, the agents make their money on commission and the inhouse staff get paid a salary.

http://www.kellidiane.com/archives/blog/1086.html

(It’s the least we can do, considering how helpful Redfin has been in helping us track the size of the local bubble. If we’d been forced to get our information through — gasp — an agent, we’d probably have been hoodwinked into buying in 2006. God forbid.)

What is hard to measure is how many fewer agents are beating the sidewalk for Windermere, CB Bain, etc these days. Having 20% less agents is not noticeable, because the bottom 20% barely do any deals and therefore are not noticed when they go back to some other job or go on unemployment or something.

Sniglet – I think that this winter will be the hardest that the local RE has seen yet. People will say that the 90s were just as bad, but we are already in new territory when sheriffs talk about not evicting people!

Try non-existent. Trust me I know this. Just look at ZIPR and the most ridiculous of all SOLD(Housevalues). They just continue to burn their beloved cash on a model that only works in a hot real estate market. Even then they have to contend with a profession that is going the way of the travel agent. **However,** last time I checked they were trading UNDER their cash on the books. Yes, I said UNDER THEIR CASH! That shows you the value of the model.

Going forward the money in Real Estate will be from Lead Generation and less from commissions. The public is getting educated rather quickly this last year and the buffet is coming to an end!

Sell all assets and convert to cash which will have 100% gov gty no matter how much you have in the bank. All of us that saw IRA fall 40%, take the 20% gain over today and tomorrow and swallow the loss…

The perfect bounce back…take advantage..

I tried to talk to Redfin about being a pioneer and developing insurance on home values based on the Case Shiller index, and traded emails with their CEO, but he never took a meeting….

I guess he was also feeling a bit immune…NOT

I interviewed one of their Top Agents that was terminated because of licensing issues. He closed over 200 deals a in one year. However, he was used to receiving a salary and bonuses. I told him 8 months ago we pay no salary and no bonuses. Unfortunately as much as I wanted him he was a poor fit for 500 Realty because he needed to sell to survive. In the lean years ahead Red Fin will have to do further cost-cutting or receive more VC.

They need to focus their model more towards Lead Generation and increasing their revenues. Paying agents 4000 per month will crush their VC.

Zillow and Zip were to combine forces at one point 3 years back. Zillow needed the Real Estate platform Zip had , and Zip needed the traffic flow that Zillow offers. But, 20% back to consumer? Its not gonna fly. The public is far to saavy for a mere 20%. **3.25 pps on ZipR tells all**. I would not EVER count Zillow out. I think they will be a player in years to come.

500 Realty continues its expansion to Redmond , and Nevada next year. With no debt, hiring only Agents who are financially secure, and our NEW partners who are completing the integration of 500 Mortgage we will remain the Best Deal in the Industry.

Hang in there Red Fin! We still need you to help educate. Its hard to go it alone. I never hear from Iggy’s, Shop Prop, or Handspring anymore!

See you at the Seattle Home Show!

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/383123_budget14.html

Sounds like some of those will be “not filling vacant positions” but I feel badly for those who will be losing their jobs.

Seems like a lot of job losses in the Seattle vicinity – is anyone running a tally?

Zillow may be able to inject themselves at some level into almost every real estate transaction if they do a good job, redfin is just one more Realtorâ„¢ to choose from.