So the plurality of Seattle Bubble voters called it correctly.

Good thing the RE industry isn’t like that, eh Dave?

IMHO DOW will see 7k stable sometime through the end of the year, last two weeks or so as there is a tax advantage write off dumps, as well as other end of the year events such as retail numbers and blah blah blibidy blah.

Last time I looked, inflation adjusted trend suggested somewhere between 5000 and 6000 would be a return to the norm. Are you expecting long term deflation to do the rest of the compensation?

My guess (and that’s all it is) is that we haven’t approached a near-term bottom yet and that the Dow will drop to the 7000 range before the end of the year, and possibly dip into the high 6000s within the next 2 months. That said, I believe we will have multi-month rally taking us back into the 10,000 region once we hit this low. The real unknowable, however, is how quickly we will make a new low. Will it be before year-end? And how quickly will we get back to the 10,000?

If this is going to be a multi-month rally I doubt VERY much that it will be kicked off by any massive upward swings such as we saw last week. Sustainable rallies tend to creep up on you, slowly building over weeks rather than resulting from some swift rebound.

One thing that makes me particularly skeptical that we have already seen a short-term bottom is the simple fact that almost EVERYONE believes this is the case. Even most of the bearish pundits are now calling for a relief rally of some duration.

Above all else I believe that this bear market (like all bear markets) will do whatever is necessary to fool the majority of investors, including the bears.

It is typical for a sharp drop in the stock market like we recently seen to be followed by a sharp rally. I bought at the bottom, and I’ll sell near the top of the mini-rally. I suspect much of the buying during the last drop was in a similar manner to what I did where I knew there would be a short sucker rally where I could make some quick easy money. But the overall trend of the market is still down, and I suspect it will touch into the sub-8000 territory before it’s over.

But it could get a whole lot worse if the public begins to realize the massive govt. bailout is not working, and we are left with massive debt and no way to stop the collapse.. We are not out of the water by any means. We will see Q4 GDP go much more negative than the current quarter. This will signal an official deep recession is underway. Meanwhile, house prices and banks will still be in trouble. Q1 2009 won’t be a good time for stocks.

The BS govt. bailout is already starting to meltdown. If it all starts going this way, I hope you have a job and some savings.

Effectiveness of AIG’s $143 Billion Rescue Questioned

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/02/AR2008110202150.html?hpid=topnews

If anything you will see a sell off around year end because no one knows how high Obama is going to really raise the capital gains tax, and if it will be retroactive….

But fear not, after a while with Obama’s new spending plans and new taxes the market will be going up again, hyperinflation raises all boats…

Oh no! Don’t buy a house because that would be stupid. Giving money to the stock market is smart. It’s so cheap.

It’s all safe now. The governments of the world are involved and taking control, so it’s OK now. Please put your money back in the bank, it is FDIC insured. Everybody go back about your business.

Please put more money in your SEPA, IRA, 401K, ABBA, DABBA, and DOO. The financial markets are now ready to be responsible after they lost all that other money you gave them.

It’s lost! They had write downs so that means the money is lost, however after they lost that money it seems they found the highest cash reserves ever recorded.

Since 1985 we have seen the manipulation of credit, finance and interest rates as a way to show profits. I think it’s time to stop. Higher prices are killing the global economies.

Stocks are business. Stocks are rich people business. Rich people take money from the poor and keep it.

Why would you ever think that the truly wealthy would give you money? How would that be smart for them? Why would Wal Mart give you money? They have your money, they get your money every day, why do they need your investment?

They don’t, they just want more money.