Comments on: Declining Appreciation Closely Tied to Sales Volume http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:02:55 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Nick http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62462 Nick Fri, 12 Dec 2008 22:33:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62462 This actually matches what I would expect, having thought about it a bit. The RE cycle is basically an oval, moving around clockwise (as you have graphed it). The prevailing economic forces affect it somewhat (for example, the government interference in the market is pushing the down-slope out to the right and lengthening the amount of time it will be below the zero line), but eventually it should loop around and rejoin the green line, or something close. Without the market interference, the oval would be more pronounced (sales volume would be be higher and price declines would be steeper, as the market corrected faster).<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62462','Nick',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62462','Nick','This actually matches what I would expect, having thought about it a bit. The RE cycle is basically an oval, moving around clockwise (as you have graphed it). The prevailing economic forces affect it somewhat (for example, the government interference in the market is pushing the down-slope out to the right and lengthening the amount of time it will be below the zero line), but eventually it should loop around and rejoin the green line, or something close. Without the market interference, the oval would be more pronounced (sales volume would be be higher and price declines would be steeper, as the market corrected faster).',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This actually matches what I would expect, having thought about it a bit. The RE cycle is basically an oval, moving around clockwise (as you have graphed it). The prevailing economic forces affect it somewhat (for example, the government interference in the market is pushing the down-slope out to the right and lengthening the amount of time it will be below the zero line), but eventually it should loop around and rejoin the green line, or something close. Without the market interference, the oval would be more pronounced (sales volume would be be higher and price declines would be steeper, as the market corrected faster).
Reply – Quote
]]> By: Displaced Seattlite http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62424 Displaced Seattlite Fri, 12 Dec 2008 04:16:55 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62424 Just proves that things go 'round and 'round. Might be a Lissajou figure....<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62424','Displaced Seattlite',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62424','Displaced Seattlite','Just proves that things go \'round and \'round. Might be a Lissajou figure....',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Just proves that things go ’round and ’round. Might be a Lissajou figure….
Reply – Quote
]]> By: SemperFinance http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62390 SemperFinance Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:41:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62390 At first glance, my gut tells me that this means more people are renting and less are buying as the labor force increases and less people are paying top dollar to own a home.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62390','SemperFinance',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62390','SemperFinance','At first glance, my gut tells me that this means more people are renting and less are buying as the labor force increases and less people are paying top dollar to own a home.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> At first glance, my gut tells me that this means more people are renting and less are buying as the labor force increases and less people are paying top dollar to own a home.
Reply – Quote
]]> By: vboring http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62380 vboring Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:43:59 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62380 The implication is that sales volume has been strongly correlated with price changes for roughly the past two years, which seems quite reasonable. In California, I imagine a similar analysis would show they did the same thing for a while, but now have moved off of that tend. At this point, sales volume is rising, but prices are not. They are having a flatish bear rally or are bottoming. We're still quite clearly in the free-fall stage and will stay here until we see a significant increase in volume.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62380','vboring',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62380','vboring','The implication is that sales volume has been strongly correlated with price changes for roughly the past two years, which seems quite reasonable.\r\n\r\nIn California, I imagine a similar analysis would show they did the same thing for a while, but now have moved off of that tend. At this point, sales volume is rising, but prices are not. They are having a flatish bear rally or are bottoming.\r\n\r\nWe\'re still quite clearly in the free-fall stage and will stay here until we see a significant increase in volume.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The implication is that sales volume has been strongly correlated with price changes for roughly the past two years, which seems quite reasonable.

In California, I imagine a similar analysis would show they did the same thing for a while, but now have moved off of that tend. At this point, sales volume is rising, but prices are not. They are having a flatish bear rally or are bottoming.

We’re still quite clearly in the free-fall stage and will stay here until we see a significant increase in volume.

Reply – Quote
]]> By: jesse http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62375 jesse Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:20:08 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62375 http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/ubergeek-post-update-price-changes-and.html<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62375','jesse',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62375','jesse','http:\/\/housing-analysis.blogspot.com\/2008\/11\/ubergeek-post-update-price-changes-and.html',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/ubergeek-post-update-price-changes-and.html
Reply – Quote
]]> By: tomtom http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/10/declining-appreciation-closely-tied-to-sales-volume/#comment-62374 tomtom Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:21:26 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3642#comment-62374 How about a graph of Closed Sales vs. # licensed Realtors(R)?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62374','tomtom',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62374','tomtom','How about a graph of Closed Sales vs. # licensed Realtors(R)?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> How about a graph of Closed Sales vs. # licensed Realtors(R)?
Reply – Quote
]]>