Forbes whips out so many of these nonsense top ten lists that sometimes I get tired of taking the bait. Feel free to refer back to any of the other posts about one of Forbes’ many lists for comments that would certainly apply to this latest entry.

I did a post on this a while ago. The US bubble looks very similar to Japan’s when you account for relative levels of inflation

I guess it is similar if you consider going 100% higher at the peak similar.

Seattle was ranked #1.

America’s Best Long-Term Housing Bets

1. Seattle, Wash.
Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 1.5%

Seattle’s peak building period in the 1980s run-up was in the second quarter of 1986. The Savings & Loan crisis didn’t fully halt building activity until the fourth quarter of 1992. What lands it in the first position on this list is the combination of strong job growth with a building cycle that hasn’t run in high excess of demand and, in part, its constrained geography. Especially compared to cities on the West Coast, Seattle has historically not overheated in boom times.

I’m sure the SB has something to say about this?

In a bear market nothing is a hedge. All the correlations go out the window as everyone sells everything to meet margin calls and pay back leverage. Just ask all the hedge funds that have gone out of business this year.

SRS is interesting. If you look at a chart, it has days where is goes up or down 10-30%. Something very wrong there. One day in November it went as high as 230, and closed at 140 — ouch! One month ago it was 295, today 58. I couldn’t hold that overnight and get any sleep.

IMHO, preserve capital in a bear market (both stocks and houses). There will be a new bull market some day. Anyone who has cash then will be one of the winners.

Who Saw 60 Minutes last Sunday? There was this guy on there saying that Subprimes were only the tip of the iceberg. Startring in 2009 is when the bulk of the ARM mortgages are due to reset.

Hm… where did I read that before. Oh right – on Calculated Risk over a year ago!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

Glad to see the MSM are catching up.

The hills here are the killer. The flatlands of the midwest are comparably easy. I miss having a beater car to take out on snow days. 4 lane roads with no other cars = fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun!

I learned to drive in a 2wd pickup with crappy tires. The past couple days would be a good time to learn a bit about driving in the snow… once more people are on the road, it’s not.

“Thundersnow” is what we heard yesterday morning. The first crack woke me up here in Kirkland. The second lightening flash was so bright I still saw it with my eyes closed again, and the second thunder crack rolled on for 15-20 seconds… Pretty cool!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thundersnow

rices finally started to rise in Japan in 2005. 17 years after the peak of the bubble. Prices in 2005 were at ~1975 levels

DailyT –
I did a post on this a while ago. The US bubble looks very similar to Japan’s when you account for relative levels of inflation

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/image002-600×436.png

In Wisconsin, there’s like one snow plow per street it seems — the roads are cleared (and salted) constantly. Just a fact of life there. Seattle has what, two snow plows for the whole city? ;)

We have a lot of elderly people here in the area and I hope that they have enough food and liquids to get thru the next 3 or 4 days or until taxi/bus service resumes.

You would think more big businesses (Boeing/MS/etc.) would announce closures so their employees don’t have to risk vehicle/body to get to work. But I guess if they did that….they would have to pay for days when zero work gets done.

Back in the 1970’s Boeing actually closed for a day. During that storm Seattle got over a foot of snow.

Stay warm and safe……

Where is the bottom for Seattle-area SFH Prices?

* 20% off peak (now). (22%, 84 Votes)
* 20% to 30% off peak. (26%, 99 Votes)
* 30% to 40% off peak. (28%, 107 Votes)
* 40% to 50% off peak. (11%, 43 Votes)
* 50% or more off peak. (13%, 49 Votes)

Total Voters: 382

Start Date: November 9, 2008 @ 12:01 am
End Date: November 16, 2008 @ 12:00 am

Secondly… I know Tim put up several posts regarding the correlation between Seattle’s home price index and Japan’s RE price index.

IF Japan (lots of differences between the two countries financial structures & systems) is a good indicator of where home prices will be, the outlook can certainly be ominous. (If I recall, prices finally started to rise in Japan in 2005. 17 years after the peak of the bubble. Prices in 2005 were at ~1975 levels. Being a new bubblehead.. has there been a poll conducted on this site as to how much further prices will fall? 2001 levels? 1991 levels?

My neighbor is a hardworking and honest builder, but there is pretty much nothing out there right now. Things are really tough and getting worse. This was really an eye-opener to me because I have so often admired his generosity, integrity, and work ethic.

Hunker down and ride out the storm because it is already terrible out there, and we haven’t seen nothing yet. I got a little scared tonight. Deflation is a savage force.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOSShCa5fOk

Jbeans – after seeing the chaos with people driving, I think that a snow day is warranted. Even if the locals learn to drive, the hills and infrastructure are not up to this weather. And nobody wants to pay for the once every 20 years event.

I just hope that things reach normality so that I can travel to Seattle from Redmond on the 23rd. If not I will have problems – I already booked a Clipper ticket!

I recommend chains if you plan on going anywhere safely. Even on 148th Ave NE it is compact snow & ice, even at the major intersection near my house.

Now get this–the mail DID NOT GET DELIVERED in our neighborhood today! In ten years, I have never seen that happen.

I’d kill to be up in the mountains boarding right now.

After five years in Wisconsin, driving in the snow is a piece of cake. I still wouldn’t go out in this though, because the other drivers are idiots. I remember driving in the snowstorm of 1990, that was nuts. Cars abandoned in the middle of streets everywhere. And I seem to remember the roof of Northgate mall falling in from the weight of the snow.

Oh, and in all those five years in WI, not one snow day, not even when we got a foot of snow overnight. Suck it up, Seattle, ya bunch of wusses!

Residential plus condo closed month to date 580 (posted as of now)

Closed in November 1,034

Went Pending since Dec 1st (& not closed) – 822

Looks like December could beat November…or will be close.

http://www.king5.com/video/?z=y&

It went on and on and I felt I was being staged as a joke. I was intrigued by the incompetence. I asked again…How did you hear about us? He swore The Bubble. I did my usual and forwarded him to Findwell and Handspring for he did not fit our “new client parameters” .

So who the heck here goes by the name of Magilla. I have his signed Buyer agency agreement with a name of Magilla. All I can think of is Gorilla. Mike “Magilla” Anderson. Please “out” yourself so I can thank you for the comedy routine.

You earned a 500 T shirt! Just in time for Xmas…….

Also? Are we ever gonna take the “big hit” in real estate like the rest of the country?

Yeah that is a bit crazy that people ignore clear signs that they should stay inside.

Mind you, most people around here don’t have the luxury of being able to walk somewhere to get food or the luxury to work from home. So they go driving in this kind of weather.

I was watching King5 this morning and they were broadcasting from an on ramp that was blocked off on 520. The idiots were going through the cones that the State Patrol set up and ended up getting stuck. The newsguy back at the desk just remarked at how stupid that was. Classic TV folks!

People from Seattle never bother to learn how to drive. Especially in snow. It’s rare enough that they all just hide inside until it goes away whenever it comes.

We have had a whole bunch here in Redmond just underneath Ed Hill.

Working for realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Not anymore.

It’s a short interview where he says what we all know here. Basically, that he had to say what he had to, based on who he worked for.

Yeah I’m so sure. I bet they forced him to write his famously-hilarious book, too:
Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade – And How to Profit From Them.

Former real estate bull admits, “I spun”
Working for realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Not anymore.

It’s a short interview where he says what we all know here. Basically, that he had to say what he had to, based on who he worked for.

Same stuff we hear from the experts every month.

I believe that would be this story: A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon?

…which I linked in at the very end of Monday’s post.