Comments on: Delistings Stabilized in November http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/ local real estate news, statistics, and commentary without the sales spin. Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:07:06 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: kfhozhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-67270 kfhoz Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:07:48 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-67270 At least one of the crooks is going to jail."A federal judge sentenced a former Bellevue loan officer today to seven years in prison for perpetrating what prosecutors say is one of the largest home-mortgage fraud cases brought so far in Western Washington."http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008793819_webbrooks27m.html<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('67270','kfhoz',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('67270','kfhoz','At least one of the crooks is going to jail.\r\n\r\n\"A federal judge sentenced a former Bellevue loan officer today to seven years in prison for perpetrating what prosecutors say is one of the largest home-mortgage fraud cases brought so far in Western Washington.\"\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/localnews\/2008793819_webbrooks27m.html',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> At least one of the crooks is going to jail.

“A federal judge sentenced a former Bellevue loan officer today to seven years in prison for perpetrating what prosecutors say is one of the largest home-mortgage fraud cases brought so far in Western Washington.”

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008793819_webbrooks27m.html

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]]> By: Bucerihttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62869 Buceri Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:06:18 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62869 <i>JPMorgan dropping six WaMu leases in Seattle By DAN RICHMAN P-I REPORTERNew York banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co., which in September bought the branches, deposits and loans of Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle for $1.9 billion, plans to drop the leases in six downtown office buildings now housing WaMu employees, a WaMu spokeswoman said.WaMu currently leases about 880,000 square feet in downtown Seattle, said Patrick Mullen, a research analyst with Grubb & Ellis Co., Seattle."Assuming Chase lets go of most of the workers in those leased offices, and then lets go of the offices, that event alone could drive up vacancies 2 to 3 percentage points in the central business district," Mullen said. "It would depress rent rates even more than they are now."Mullen said the massive withdrawal could also undercut the roughly 2.5 million square feet of office space due for completion in downtown Seattle next year.</i><div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62869','Buceri',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62869','Buceri','<i>JPMorgan dropping six WaMu leases in Seattle\r\nBy DAN RICHMAN\r\nP-I REPORTER\r\n\r\nNew York banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co., which in September bought the branches, deposits and loans of Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle for $1.9 billion, plans to drop the leases in six downtown office buildings now housing WaMu employees, a WaMu spokeswoman said.\r\n\r\nWaMu currently leases about 880,000 square feet in downtown Seattle, said Patrick Mullen, a research analyst with Grubb & Ellis Co., Seattle.\r\n\r\n\"Assuming Chase lets go of most of the workers in those leased offices, and then lets go of the offices, that event alone could drive up vacancies 2 to 3 percentage points in the central business district,\" Mullen said. \"It would depress rent rates even more than they are now.\"\r\n\r\nMullen said the massive withdrawal could also undercut the roughly 2.5 million square feet of office space due for completion in downtown Seattle next year.<\/i>',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> JPMorgan dropping six WaMu leases in Seattle
By DAN RICHMAN
P-I REPORTER

New York banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co., which in September bought the branches, deposits and loans of Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle for $1.9 billion, plans to drop the leases in six downtown office buildings now housing WaMu employees, a WaMu spokeswoman said.

WaMu currently leases about 880,000 square feet in downtown Seattle, said Patrick Mullen, a research analyst with Grubb & Ellis Co., Seattle.

“Assuming Chase lets go of most of the workers in those leased offices, and then lets go of the offices, that event alone could drive up vacancies 2 to 3 percentage points in the central business district,” Mullen said. “It would depress rent rates even more than they are now.”

Mullen said the massive withdrawal could also undercut the roughly 2.5 million square feet of office space due for completion in downtown Seattle next year.

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]]> By: deejayohhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62864 deejayoh Wed, 24 Dec 2008 03:43:48 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62864 <blockquote>Any utility in calculating/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1/07.</blockquote>I did this on an annualized basis a while ago. It only goes through 2007 but it should give you an idea of how this has trended over timehttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/stay-or-go.png<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62864','deejayoh',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62864','deejayoh','<blockquote>Any utility in calculating\/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1\/07.<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nI did this on an annualized basis a while ago. It only goes through 2007 but it should give you an idea of how this has trended over time\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/02\/stay-or-go.png',''); return false;">Quote</a></div>

Any utility in calculating/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1/07.

I did this on an annualized basis a while ago. It only goes through 2007 but it should give you an idea of how this has trended over time

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/stay-or-go.png

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]]> By: buystockshttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62859 buystocks Wed, 24 Dec 2008 01:14:12 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62859 Any utility in calculating/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1/07.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62859','buystocks',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62859','buystocks','Any utility in calculating\/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1\/07.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Any utility in calculating/graphing ratios for new:stale and sales:delisted over a long time? Just by eyeballing, huge ratio differences since 1/07.
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]]> By: Lamonthttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62858 Lamont Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:14:04 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62858 We need to see how the summer market comes back to see if there's any real change in direction or stabilization to the market on a year-over-year basis.Trying to call bottoms or stabilization on a month-over-month basis is going to result in a lot of false bottoms. Eventually it will call the ultimate bottom, and it'll trigger sooner than y-o-y analysis, but there's no rush to buy into the bottom.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62858','Lamont',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62858','Lamont','We need to see how the summer market comes back to see if there\'s any real change in direction or stabilization to the market on a year-over-year basis.\r\n\r\nTrying to call bottoms or stabilization on a month-over-month basis is going to result in a lot of false bottoms. Eventually it will call the ultimate bottom, and it\'ll trigger sooner than y-o-y analysis, but there\'s no rush to buy into the bottom.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> We need to see how the summer market comes back to see if there’s any real change in direction or stabilization to the market on a year-over-year basis.

Trying to call bottoms or stabilization on a month-over-month basis is going to result in a lot of false bottoms. Eventually it will call the ultimate bottom, and it’ll trigger sooner than y-o-y analysis, but there’s no rush to buy into the bottom.

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]]> By: Scotsmanhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62857 Scotsman Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:53:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62857 With the exception of some ares of Seattle there is no real "market", as the whole process has broken down. Current listings aren't selling, those who want to sell aren't listing (what's the point?), and buyers are waiting for prices to fall, but the whole mechanism is jambed up.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62857','Scotsman',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62857','Scotsman','With the exception of some ares of Seattle there is no real \"market\", as the whole process has broken down. Current listings aren\'t selling, those who want to sell aren\'t listing (what\'s the point?), and buyers are waiting for prices to fall, but the whole mechanism is jambed up.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> With the exception of some ares of Seattle there is no real “market”, as the whole process has broken down. Current listings aren’t selling, those who want to sell aren’t listing (what’s the point?), and buyers are waiting for prices to fall, but the whole mechanism is jambed up.
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]]> By: DrShorthttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62855 DrShort Tue, 23 Dec 2008 23:22:26 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62855 All the de-listings over the past several months suggest there is a large and growing inventory of unlisted homes that owners want to sell. It's a pent up supply that isn't currently measured in the inventory statistics. I wonder how many pulled their homes from the market in order to re-list in 2009?I've been tracking $500k-$800K homes on Redfin in the Seattle core for about 9 months. There's now 62 homes on my Redfin "favorites" list that have gone off market since about May. Of that, 24 never ended up selling. From what I'm seeing, two types of homes are selling. Nice, updated, well designed homes in good neighborhoods and fixer uppers selling for dirt cheap. The somewhat flawed or needs a little work houses in questionable locations are just not moving.I'm currently renting a place that the owner couldn't sell. Despite a pretty hefty rental price, the owner is still losing significant money each month. Although he's happy to have a renter, he wants the place sold.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62855','DrShort',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62855','DrShort','All the de-listings over the past several months suggest there is a large and growing inventory of unlisted homes that owners want to sell. It\'s a pent up supply that isn\'t currently measured in the inventory statistics. I wonder how many pulled their homes from the market in order to re-list in 2009? \r\n\r\nI\'ve been tracking $500k-$800K homes on Redfin in the Seattle core for about 9 months. There\'s now 62 homes on my Redfin \"favorites\" list that have gone off market since about May. Of that, 24 never ended up selling. From what I\'m seeing, two types of homes are selling. Nice, updated, well designed homes in good neighborhoods and fixer uppers selling for dirt cheap. The somewhat flawed or needs a little work houses in questionable locations are just not moving. \r\n\r\nI\'m currently renting a place that the owner couldn\'t sell. Despite a pretty hefty rental price, the owner is still losing significant money each month. Although he\'s happy to have a renter, he wants the place sold.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> All the de-listings over the past several months suggest there is a large and growing inventory of unlisted homes that owners want to sell. It’s a pent up supply that isn’t currently measured in the inventory statistics. I wonder how many pulled their homes from the market in order to re-list in 2009?

I’ve been tracking $500k-$800K homes on Redfin in the Seattle core for about 9 months. There’s now 62 homes on my Redfin “favorites” list that have gone off market since about May. Of that, 24 never ended up selling. From what I’m seeing, two types of homes are selling. Nice, updated, well designed homes in good neighborhoods and fixer uppers selling for dirt cheap. The somewhat flawed or needs a little work houses in questionable locations are just not moving.

I’m currently renting a place that the owner couldn’t sell. Despite a pretty hefty rental price, the owner is still losing significant money each month. Although he’s happy to have a renter, he wants the place sold.

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]]> By: softwarengineerhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/23/delistings-stabilized-in-november/#comment-62842 softwarengineer Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:23:01 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3709#comment-62842 THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS ESTIMATE ON YOUR MONTHLY RED BAR DATA DOESN"T SHOW HISTORICAL IMPROVEMENTIts flat, horrifying and chronic. Like you said Tim, the problem got steadily horrifying in 2008, with clear linear degradation of delistings in 2007.It may be with the recession officially starting in 2008, the high priced listed homes are disappearring [reduced delistings/listings] this year. Of course delistings will decrease as prices become more affordable, assuming unemployment isn't up to 9% in 2009, with another 9% under-employed and/or "give ups" weighting the economy down.I know, we'll all go out and buy Seattle homes with our minimum 740 credit rating and we all can get the $240K maximum 4.6% BECU 30 year fixed money.....assuming Seattle RE prices collapse another 50% to make the pipe dream 4.6% loan limit other than a "Seattle area laughing stock"....lol<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62842','softwarengineer',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62842','softwarengineer','THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS ESTIMATE ON YOUR MONTHLY RED BAR DATA DOESN\"T SHOW HISTORICAL IMPROVEMENT\r\n\r\nIts flat, horrifying and chronic. Like you said Tim, the problem got steadily horrifying in 2008, with clear linear degradation of delistings in 2007.\r\n\r\nIt may be with the recession officially starting in 2008, the high priced listed homes are disappearring [reduced delistings\/listings] this year. Of course delistings will decrease as prices become more affordable, assuming unemployment isn\'t up to 9% in 2009, with another 9% under-employed and\/or \"give ups\" weighting the economy down.\r\n\r\nI know, we\'ll all go out and buy Seattle homes with our minimum 740 credit rating and we all can get the $240K maximum 4.6% BECU 30 year fixed money.....assuming Seattle RE prices collapse another 50% to make the pipe dream 4.6% loan limit other than a \"Seattle area laughing stock\"....lol',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS ESTIMATE ON YOUR MONTHLY RED BAR DATA DOESN”T SHOW HISTORICAL IMPROVEMENT

Its flat, horrifying and chronic. Like you said Tim, the problem got steadily horrifying in 2008, with clear linear degradation of delistings in 2007.

It may be with the recession officially starting in 2008, the high priced listed homes are disappearring [reduced delistings/listings] this year. Of course delistings will decrease as prices become more affordable, assuming unemployment isn’t up to 9% in 2009, with another 9% under-employed and/or “give ups” weighting the economy down.

I know, we’ll all go out and buy Seattle homes with our minimum 740 credit rating and we all can get the $240K maximum 4.6% BECU 30 year fixed money…..assuming Seattle RE prices collapse another 50% to make the pipe dream 4.6% loan limit other than a “Seattle area laughing stock”….lol

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