Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.
What’s your new year’s housing resolution for 2009?
- Buy a home in 2009. (23%, 62 Votes)
- Sell your home in 2009. (4%, 10 Votes)
- Avoid foreclosure in 2009. (2%, 5 Votes)
- Continue renting at a 50%+ discount in 2009. (50%, 132 Votes)
- Continue making comfortable home loan payments in 2009. (21%, 57 Votes)
Total Voters: 266
This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 01.03.2009.
The Tim » Dec 28, 2008 at 3:20 pm
I ran this same poll last year, and thought it would be interesting to compare the results a year later.
Thomas B. » Dec 28, 2008 at 3:25 pm
How about moving to a cheaper housing area like San Diego?
Ben » Dec 28, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I will continue comfy loan payments. But if a screaming deal pops up I might take it.
geon » Dec 28, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I’ll be looking every day, but continue to rent. I wouldn’t mine a change of scenery though. I think more trips are in the cards for ‘09.
WestSideBilly » Dec 29, 2008 at 4:40 am
I just wanted to be the first one to vote for avoiding foreclosure!
… Even though I’m renting and will continue to do so until 2010 at the earliest.
patient » Dec 29, 2008 at 11:08 am
Continue renting unless the gov comes up with a screaming deal like no federal income tax for 5 or more years if you buy a home.
On the topic of last years posts it’s getting close to check the result of the prediction thread for YoY price movements. I think this is a summary of the predicitons made in that thread ( All numbers are percent decline, everyone got the direction right ):
Median:
Glenn Crellin fluff prediction around 0?
Dick Conway 1%
Matthew Gardner 0-5%
Marc 5%
deejayoh 5%
The Tim 5-10%
crystalball 5-10%
AndySeattle 5-25%
col 8%
Ira S 8-10%
Joel 10%
notabull 10-15%
sniglet 10-15%
Ken Mott 10-15%
Steve Tytler 10-20%
Steve-O 10-20%
Lionel 15%
Selwyn King 15-20%
Scotsman 20%
Lone 20-25%
patient 25%
Case shiller:
deejayoh 5-8%
patient 10%
Since it’s a mix of ranges and single numbers a suggestion would be to rate a predictions accuracy from the distance to the furthest number in the range. I.e if you say 10-20% and the actual number is 12% you are 8% away since your furthest guess from the actual is 20%. If the actual number is 17% you are 7% from being accurate since now 10% is the furthest from the actual etc. It makes it fair between narrow and wide ranges and single numbers.
Of interrest is also that the 17m offset c/s chart gives something like a 7% YoY c/s decline. It looks like it could be a better predictor than most “pros” despite the fleck they give that chart :)
patient » Dec 29, 2008 at 11:10 am
The ): should be a :) in the sentence that ends “everyone got the direction right.”
The Tim » Dec 29, 2008 at 11:41 am
I’m waiting to post a predictions update until the December NWMLS data comes out the first week of January. If you catch any good newspaper articles with predictions between now and then let me know. So far I’ve got Tytler’s column, a Times story and a P-I story.
patient » Dec 29, 2008 at 11:56 am
Thanks The Tim, I knew you would and didn’t want to steal any thunder, more like build some suspense for the december numbers and the final result of the predictions vs. the actuals.
The Tim » Dec 29, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Nice :^) I can appreciate that.
Braden » Dec 29, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Price drops will start picking up soon.
When watching comparables at the bottom of RedFin entries, there aren’t many lately so I think people still believe there property is worth more than it really is. As foreclosures and short sales pick up steam here, we will join the decline the rest of the country has been experiencing. Seattle may fare better, but is not immune.
The market has to naturally fall to a level where people can actually qualify for loans. We’re not there yet. Someone making $60k can only afford a $180-210k house. Not many of those around right now.
People around here still refer to a $500k house as a starter home around here. How many people make the $160k “starter salary” to afford such a home?
@innovate
Brian » Dec 29, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Question:
Based on this site, I’ve decided not to buy, so I’m not in the market for renting a house. Any advice on where to find it, and how to go about negotiating? Much appreciated.
The Tim » Dec 29, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Brian, I assume you meant that you are in the market for renting a house. In that case, I recommend you check out these two posts:
Where to Search for Rentals in Seattle
How To: Use Craigslist & RSS to Find a Great Rental
Brian » Dec 29, 2008 at 7:35 pm
correct. mistype. thanks for the list.
And if anyone else has any advice, let me know.
Scotsman » Dec 30, 2008 at 1:20 am
I can’t think of a single legitimate reason to buy a house in 2009. Anybody with even a rudimentary understanding of economics has to know that we’re in for some real pain over the next couple of years. Once the Obama spring bailout bounce comes up against reality the fun will begin, most likely by early summer.
Sorry Ray, but I don’t even believe in GEMS at this point, as I think the Seattle market will be much, much slower to recover than most think. We’ll soon find ourselves with significant excess capacity in commercial real estate, software design, airplane manufacturing, and misc useless crap. In addition, this state hasn’t been “business friendly” from a government-tax-regulation perspective for some time, and I wouldn’t expect it to change soon.
As for future home price declines, put me down for an additional 35% over the next two years.
Curtis » Dec 30, 2008 at 3:56 am
Is it true MS will layoff 10% high pay workforce in Jan as stated in below article?
http://www.geldpress.com/2008/12/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways/?ref=patrick.net
Euro » Dec 31, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Bought a new house for a great price with a mortgage with a great interest rate, sold a house at a bit of a loss (still increased value, but closing cost got us losing a few k) this year, so I’ll be fine for 2009.