Comments on: Poll: What’s your new year’s housing resolution for 2009? http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/ local real estate news, statistics, and commentary without the sales spin. Mon, 22 Mar 2010 07:05:02 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Eurohttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-63074 Euro Thu, 01 Jan 2009 05:08:59 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-63074 Bought a new house for a great price with a mortgage with a great interest rate, sold a house at a bit of a loss (still increased value, but closing cost got us losing a few k) this year, so I'll be fine for 2009.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63074','Euro',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63074','Euro','Bought a new house for a great price with a mortgage with a great interest rate, sold a house at a bit of a loss (still increased value, but closing cost got us losing a few k) this year, so I\'ll be fine for 2009.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Bought a new house for a great price with a mortgage with a great interest rate, sold a house at a bit of a loss (still increased value, but closing cost got us losing a few k) this year, so I’ll be fine for 2009.
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]]> By: Curtishttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62996 Curtis Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:56:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62996 Is it true MS will layoff 10% high pay workforce in Jan as stated in below article?http://www.geldpress.com/2008/12/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways/?ref=patrick.net<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62996','Curtis',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62996','Curtis','Is it true MS will layoff 10% high pay workforce in Jan as stated in below article? \r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.geldpress.com\/2008\/12\/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways\/?ref=patrick.net',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Is it true MS will layoff 10% high pay workforce in Jan as stated in below article?

http://www.geldpress.com/2008/12/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways/?ref=patrick.net

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]]> By: Scotsmanhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62995 Scotsman Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:20:28 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62995 I can't think of a single legitimate reason to buy a house in 2009. Anybody with even a rudimentary understanding of economics has to know that we're in for some real pain over the next couple of years. Once the Obama spring bailout bounce comes up against reality the fun will begin, most likely by early summer.Sorry Ray, but I don't even believe in GEMS at this point, as I think the Seattle market will be much, much slower to recover than most think. We'll soon find ourselves with significant excess capacity in commercial real estate, software design, airplane manufacturing, and misc useless crap. In addition, this state hasn't been "business friendly" from a government-tax-regulation perspective for some time, and I wouldn't expect it to change soon. As for future home price declines, put me down for an additional 35% over the next two years.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62995','Scotsman',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62995','Scotsman','I can\'t think of a single legitimate reason to buy a house in 2009. Anybody with even a rudimentary understanding of economics has to know that we\'re in for some real pain over the next couple of years. Once the Obama spring bailout bounce comes up against reality the fun will begin, most likely by early summer. \r\n\r\n Sorry Ray, but I don\'t even believe in GEMS at this point, as I think the Seattle market will be much, much slower to recover than most think. We\'ll soon find ourselves with significant excess capacity in commercial real estate, software design, airplane manufacturing, and misc useless crap. In addition, this state hasn\'t been \"business friendly\" from a government-tax-regulation perspective for some time, and I wouldn\'t expect it to change soon.\r\n \r\n As for future home price declines, put me down for an additional 35% over the next two years.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I can’t think of a single legitimate reason to buy a house in 2009. Anybody with even a rudimentary understanding of economics has to know that we’re in for some real pain over the next couple of years. Once the Obama spring bailout bounce comes up against reality the fun will begin, most likely by early summer.

Sorry Ray, but I don’t even believe in GEMS at this point, as I think the Seattle market will be much, much slower to recover than most think. We’ll soon find ourselves with significant excess capacity in commercial real estate, software design, airplane manufacturing, and misc useless crap. In addition, this state hasn’t been “business friendly” from a government-tax-regulation perspective for some time, and I wouldn’t expect it to change soon.

As for future home price declines, put me down for an additional 35% over the next two years.

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]]> By: Brianhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62994 Brian Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:35:00 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62994 correct. mistype. thanks for the list. And if anyone else has any advice, let me know.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62994','Brian',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62994','Brian','correct. mistype. thanks for the list.\r\nAnd if anyone else has any advice, let me know.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> correct. mistype. thanks for the list.
And if anyone else has any advice, let me know.
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]]> By: The Timhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62992 The Tim Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:25:10 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62992 Brian, I assume you meant that you <i>are</i> in the market for renting a house. In that case, I recommend you check out these two posts:<a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/10/08/where-to-search-for-rentals-in-seattle/" rel="nofollow">Where to Search for Rentals in Seattle</a> <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/02/25/how-to-use-craigslist-rss-to-find-a-great-rental/" rel="nofollow">How To: Use Craigslist & RSS to Find a Great Rental</a><div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62992','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62992','The Tim','Brian, I assume you meant that you <i>are<\/i> in the market for renting a house. In that case, I recommend you check out these two posts:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/08\/where-to-search-for-rentals-in-seattle\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Where to Search for Rentals in Seattle<\/a>\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/02\/25\/how-to-use-craigslist-rss-to-find-a-great-rental\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">How To: Use Craigslist & RSS to Find a Great Rental<\/a>',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Brian, I assume you meant that you are in the market for renting a house. In that case, I recommend you check out these two posts:

Where to Search for Rentals in Seattle
How To: Use Craigslist & RSS to Find a Great Rental

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]]> By: Brianhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62991 Brian Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:17:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62991 Question: Based on this site, I've decided not to buy, so I'm not in the market for renting a house. Any advice on where to find it, and how to go about negotiating? Much appreciated.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62991','Brian',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62991','Brian','Question: \r\nBased on this site, I\'ve decided not to buy, so I\'m not in the market for renting a house. Any advice on where to find it, and how to go about negotiating? Much appreciated.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Question:
Based on this site, I’ve decided not to buy, so I’m not in the market for renting a house. Any advice on where to find it, and how to go about negotiating? Much appreciated.
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]]> By: Bradenhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62985 Braden Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:49:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62985 Price drops will start picking up soon.When watching comparables at the bottom of RedFin entries, there aren't many lately so I think people still believe there property is worth more than it really is. As foreclosures and short sales pick up steam here, we will join the decline the rest of the country has been experiencing. Seattle may fare better, but is not immune.The market has to naturally fall to a level where people can actually qualify for loans. We're not there yet. Someone making $60k can only afford a $180-210k house. Not many of those around right now.People around here still refer to a $500k house as a starter home around here. How many people make the $160k "starter salary" to afford such a home?<a href="http://twitter.com/innovate" rel="nofollow">@innovate</a><div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62985','Braden',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62985','Braden','Price drops will start picking up soon.\r\n\r\nWhen watching comparables at the bottom of RedFin entries, there aren\'t many lately so I think people still believe there property is worth more than it really is. As foreclosures and short sales pick up steam here, we will join the decline the rest of the country has been experiencing. Seattle may fare better, but is not immune.\r\n\r\nThe market has to naturally fall to a level where people can actually qualify for loans. We\'re not there yet. Someone making $60k can only afford a $180-210k house. Not many of those around right now.\r\n\r\nPeople around here still refer to a $500k house as a starter home around here. How many people make the $160k \"starter salary\" to afford such a home?\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/innovate\" rel=\"nofollow\">@innovate<\/a>',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Price drops will start picking up soon.

When watching comparables at the bottom of RedFin entries, there aren’t many lately so I think people still believe there property is worth more than it really is. As foreclosures and short sales pick up steam here, we will join the decline the rest of the country has been experiencing. Seattle may fare better, but is not immune.

The market has to naturally fall to a level where people can actually qualify for loans. We’re not there yet. Someone making $60k can only afford a $180-210k house. Not many of those around right now.

People around here still refer to a $500k house as a starter home around here. How many people make the $160k “starter salary” to afford such a home?

@innovate

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]]> By: The Timhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62982 The Tim Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:03:20 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62982 Nice :^) I can appreciate that.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62982','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62982','The Tim','Nice :^) I can appreciate that.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Nice :^) I can appreciate that.
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]]> By: patienthttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62981 patient Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:56:10 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62981 Thanks The Tim, I knew you would and didn't want to steal any thunder, more like build some suspense for the december numbers and the final result of the predictions vs. the actuals.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62981','patient',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62981','patient','Thanks The Tim, I knew you would and didn\'t want to steal any thunder, more like build some suspense for the december numbers and the final result of the predictions vs. the actuals.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Thanks The Tim, I knew you would and didn’t want to steal any thunder, more like build some suspense for the december numbers and the final result of the predictions vs. the actuals.
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]]> By: The Timhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62980 The Tim Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:41:50 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62980 I'm waiting to post a predictions update until the December NWMLS data comes out the first week of January. If you catch any good newspaper articles with predictions between now and then let me know. So far I've got <a href="http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20081109/BIZ/711099938/-1/COLUMN08" rel="nofollow">Tytler's column</a>, a <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2008562603_homeforecast28.html" rel="nofollow">Times story</a> and a <a href="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/393779_realestate27.html" rel="nofollow">P-I story</a>.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62980','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62980','The Tim','I\'m waiting to post a predictions update until the December NWMLS data comes out the first week of January. If you catch any good newspaper articles with predictions between now and then let me know. So far I\'ve got <a href=\"http:\/\/www.heraldnet.com\/article\/20081109\/BIZ\/711099938\/-1\/COLUMN08\" rel=\"nofollow\">Tytler\'s column<\/a>, a <a href=\"http:\/\/seattletimes.nwsource.com\/html\/realestate\/2008562603_homeforecast28.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">Times story<\/a> and a <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlepi.nwsource.com\/local\/393779_realestate27.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">P-I story<\/a>.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I’m waiting to post a predictions update until the December NWMLS data comes out the first week of January. If you catch any good newspaper articles with predictions between now and then let me know. So far I’ve got Tytler’s column, a Times story and a P-I story.
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]]> By: patienthttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62979 patient Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:10:39 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62979 The ): should be a :) in the sentence that ends "everyone got the direction right."<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62979','patient',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62979','patient','The ): should be a :) in the sentence that ends \"everyone got the direction right.\"',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The ): should be a :) in the sentence that ends “everyone got the direction right.”
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]]> By: patienthttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62978 patient Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:08:41 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62978 Continue renting unless the gov comes up with a screaming deal like no federal income tax for 5 or more years if you buy a home.On the topic of last years posts it's getting close to check the result of the prediction thread for YoY price movements. I think this is a summary of the predicitons made in that thread ( All numbers are percent decline, everyone got the direction right ):Median: Glenn Crellin fluff prediction around 0? Dick Conway 1% Matthew Gardner 0-5% Marc 5% deejayoh 5% The Tim 5-10% crystalball 5-10% AndySeattle 5-25% col 8% Ira S 8-10% Joel 10% notabull 10-15% sniglet 10-15% Ken Mott 10-15% Steve Tytler 10-20% Steve-O 10-20% Lionel 15% Selwyn King 15-20% Scotsman 20% Lone 20-25% patient 25%Case shiller: deejayoh 5-8% patient 10%Since it's a mix of ranges and single numbers a suggestion would be to rate a predictions accuracy from the distance to the furthest number in the range. I.e if you say 10-20% and the actual number is 12% you are 8% away since your furthest guess from the actual is 20%. If the actual number is 17% you are 7% from being accurate since now 10% is the furthest from the actual etc. It makes it fair between narrow and wide ranges and single numbers.Of interrest is also that the 17m offset c/s chart gives something like a 7% YoY c/s decline. It looks like it could be a better predictor than most "pros" despite the fleck they give that chart :)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62978','patient',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62978','patient','Continue renting unless the gov comes up with a screaming deal like no federal income tax for 5 or more years if you buy a home.\r\n\r\nOn the topic of last years posts it\'s getting close to check the result of the prediction thread for YoY price movements. I think this is a summary of the predicitons made in that thread ( All numbers are percent decline, everyone got the direction right ):\r\n\r\nMedian:\r\nGlenn Crellin fluff prediction around 0?\r\nDick Conway 1%\r\nMatthew Gardner 0-5%\r\nMarc 5%\r\ndeejayoh 5%\r\nThe Tim 5-10%\r\ncrystalball 5-10%\r\nAndySeattle 5-25% \r\ncol 8%\r\nIra S 8-10%\r\nJoel 10%\r\nnotabull 10-15%\r\nsniglet 10-15%\r\nKen Mott 10-15%\r\nSteve Tytler 10-20%\r\nSteve-O 10-20%\r\nLionel 15%\r\nSelwyn King 15-20%\r\nScotsman 20%\r\nLone 20-25%\r\npatient 25%\r\n\r\nCase shiller:\r\ndeejayoh 5-8%\r\npatient 10%\r\n\r\nSince it\'s a mix of ranges and single numbers a suggestion would be to rate a predictions accuracy from the distance to the furthest number in the range. I.e if you say 10-20% and the actual number is 12% you are 8% away since your furthest guess from the actual is 20%. If the actual number is 17% you are 7% from being accurate since now 10% is the furthest from the actual etc. It makes it fair between narrow and wide ranges and single numbers.\r\n\r\nOf interrest is also that the 17m offset c\/s chart gives something like a 7% YoY c\/s decline. It looks like it could be a better predictor than most \"pros\" despite the fleck they give that chart :)',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Continue renting unless the gov comes up with a screaming deal like no federal income tax for 5 or more years if you buy a home.

On the topic of last years posts it’s getting close to check the result of the prediction thread for YoY price movements. I think this is a summary of the predicitons made in that thread ( All numbers are percent decline, everyone got the direction right ):

Median:
Glenn Crellin fluff prediction around 0?
Dick Conway 1%
Matthew Gardner 0-5%
Marc 5%
deejayoh 5%
The Tim 5-10%
crystalball 5-10%
AndySeattle 5-25%
col 8%
Ira S 8-10%
Joel 10%
notabull 10-15%
sniglet 10-15%
Ken Mott 10-15%
Steve Tytler 10-20%
Steve-O 10-20%
Lionel 15%
Selwyn King 15-20%
Scotsman 20%
Lone 20-25%
patient 25%

Case shiller:
deejayoh 5-8%
patient 10%

Since it’s a mix of ranges and single numbers a suggestion would be to rate a predictions accuracy from the distance to the furthest number in the range. I.e if you say 10-20% and the actual number is 12% you are 8% away since your furthest guess from the actual is 20%. If the actual number is 17% you are 7% from being accurate since now 10% is the furthest from the actual etc. It makes it fair between narrow and wide ranges and single numbers.

Of interrest is also that the 17m offset c/s chart gives something like a 7% YoY c/s decline. It looks like it could be a better predictor than most “pros” despite the fleck they give that chart :)

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]]> By: WestSideBillyhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62971 WestSideBilly Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:40:07 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62971 I just wanted to be the first one to vote for avoiding foreclosure!... Even though I'm renting and will continue to do so until 2010 at the earliest.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62971','WestSideBilly',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62971','WestSideBilly','I just wanted to be the first one to vote for avoiding foreclosure!\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n... Even though I\'m renting and will continue to do so until 2010 at the earliest.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I just wanted to be the first one to vote for avoiding foreclosure!

… Even though I’m renting and will continue to do so until 2010 at the earliest.

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]]> By: geonhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62968 geon Mon, 29 Dec 2008 06:56:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62968 I'll be looking every day, but continue to rent. I wouldn't mine a change of scenery though. I think more trips are in the cards for '09.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62968','geon',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62968','geon','I\'ll be looking every day, but continue to rent. I wouldn\'t mine a change of scenery though. I think more trips are in the cards for \'09.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I’ll be looking every day, but continue to rent. I wouldn’t mine a change of scenery though. I think more trips are in the cards for ‘09.
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]]> By: Benhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62963 Ben Mon, 29 Dec 2008 01:33:26 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62963 I will continue comfy loan payments. But if a screaming deal pops up I might take it.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62963','Ben',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62963','Ben','I will continue comfy loan payments. But if a screaming deal pops up I might take it.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I will continue comfy loan payments. But if a screaming deal pops up I might take it.
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]]> By: Thomas B.http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62962 Thomas B. Sun, 28 Dec 2008 23:25:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62962 How about moving to a cheaper housing area like San Diego?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62962','Thomas B.',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62962','Thomas B.','How about moving to a cheaper housing area like San Diego?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> How about moving to a cheaper housing area like San Diego?
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]]> By: The Timhttp://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/28/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution-for-2009/#comment-62961 The Tim Sun, 28 Dec 2008 23:20:31 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3747#comment-62961 <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/01/01/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution/" rel="nofollow">I ran this same poll last year</a>, and thought it would be interesting to compare the results a year later.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62961','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62961','The Tim','<a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/01\/01\/poll-whats-your-new-years-housing-resolution\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">I ran this same poll last year<\/a>, and thought it would be interesting to compare the results a year later.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I ran this same poll last year, and thought it would be interesting to compare the results a year later.
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