Comments on: Case-Shiller: Seattle Hits 10% YOY Price Drops http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/ News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 04:04:18 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Lake Hills Renter http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63055 Lake Hills Renter Wed, 31 Dec 2008 23:31:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63055 "pogonophobia" Hah! I had to look that one up. I can't believe that actualy exists, and is extremely relevent around here of late.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63055','Lake Hills Renter',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63055','Lake Hills Renter','\"pogonophobia\"\r\n\r\nHah! I had to look that one up. I can\'t believe that actualy exists, and is extremely relevent around here of late.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “pogonophobia”

Hah! I had to look that one up. I can’t believe that actualy exists, and is extremely relevent around here of late.

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]]> By: Buceri http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63045 Buceri Wed, 31 Dec 2008 21:13:09 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63045 BubbleBuyer; this one is for you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqZMTY4V7Ts<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63045','Buceri',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63045','Buceri','BubbleBuyer; this one is for you:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=OqZMTY4V7Ts',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> BubbleBuyer; this one is for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqZMTY4V7Ts

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]]> By: Dave http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63044 Dave Wed, 31 Dec 2008 19:04:45 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63044 "You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang." For Seattle to "catch up" we'd need to post declines at, say, a 30% annual rate for awhile.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63044','Dave',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63044','Dave','\"You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang.\"\r\n\r\nFor Seattle to \"catch up\" we\'d need to post declines at, say, a 30% annual rate for awhile.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang.”

For Seattle to “catch up” we’d need to post declines at, say, a 30% annual rate for awhile.

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]]> By: B&W Nikes http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63043 B&W Nikes Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:53:24 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63043 Sans pogonophobia and general loathing of your own backyard (are you a native?), that's a great IHT article, thanks Andy. After the tabloid style lead up with references to methamphetamine use, petty thefts, and mariachi singers (how David Lynch!) is this nugget in the closing: <blockquote>In September, Killinger was forced to retire. Later that month, with WaMu buckling under about $180 billion in mortgage-related loans, regulators seized the bank and sold it to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion, a fraction of the $40 billion valuation the stock market had given WaMu at its peak</blockquote> Anyone else find the absence of regulators over the last decade as alarming as the sudden seizures and takeovers? For the Seattle area, historically it seems whenever this region gets economically slapped, the crappy times are followed by increasingly longer and larger waves of new people and businesses arriving. The further we sink the more we rise on the rebound, we are a boom and bust cycle town. For a medium size young city people seem to really like living here regardless of the economics. Likely that the problems of the WaMus, MSFTs, and Boeings will open up a lot of commercial opportunities for other parties, but it will be uncomfortable and we will feel quite a pinch.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63043','B&W Nikes',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63043','B&W Nikes','Sans pogonophobia and general loathing of your own backyard (are you a native?), that\'s a great IHT article, thanks Andy. \r\nAfter the tabloid style lead up with references to methamphetamine use, petty thefts, and mariachi singers (how David Lynch!) is this nugget in the closing:\r\n<blockquote>In September, Killinger was forced to retire. Later that month, with WaMu buckling under about $180 billion in mortgage-related loans, regulators seized the bank and sold it to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion, a fraction of the $40 billion valuation the stock market had given WaMu at its peak<\/blockquote>\r\nAnyone else find the absence of regulators over the last decade as alarming as the sudden seizures and takeovers? \r\n\r\nFor the Seattle area, historically it seems whenever this region gets economically slapped, the crappy times are followed by increasingly longer and larger waves of new people and businesses arriving. The further we sink the more we rise on the rebound, we are a boom and bust cycle town. For a medium size young city people seem to really like living here regardless of the economics. Likely that the problems of the WaMus, MSFTs, and Boeings will open up a lot of commercial opportunities for other parties, but it will be uncomfortable and we will feel quite a pinch.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Sans pogonophobia and general loathing of your own backyard (are you a native?), that’s a great IHT article, thanks Andy.
After the tabloid style lead up with references to methamphetamine use, petty thefts, and mariachi singers (how David Lynch!) is this nugget in the closing:

In September, Killinger was forced to retire. Later that month, with WaMu buckling under about $180 billion in mortgage-related loans, regulators seized the bank and sold it to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion, a fraction of the $40 billion valuation the stock market had given WaMu at its peak

Anyone else find the absence of regulators over the last decade as alarming as the sudden seizures and takeovers?

For the Seattle area, historically it seems whenever this region gets economically slapped, the crappy times are followed by increasingly longer and larger waves of new people and businesses arriving. The further we sink the more we rise on the rebound, we are a boom and bust cycle town. For a medium size young city people seem to really like living here regardless of the economics. Likely that the problems of the WaMus, MSFTs, and Boeings will open up a lot of commercial opportunities for other parties, but it will be uncomfortable and we will feel quite a pinch.

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]]> By: MacAttack http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63042 MacAttack Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:49:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63042 By the way: You win!!! A google search of Seattlebubble brings up this dead blog (last entry July 29, 2008). I guess they ran out of convenient actual facts. SeattleBubble? This is a forum for posting actual facts about the Seattle area real estate market.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63042','MacAttack',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63042','MacAttack','By the way: You win!!!\r\n\r\nA google search of Seattlebubble brings up this dead blog (last entry July 29, 2008). I guess they ran out of convenient actual facts.\r\n\r\nSeattleBubble? \r\nThis is a forum for posting actual facts about the Seattle area real estate market.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> By the way: You win!!!

A google search of Seattlebubble brings up this dead blog (last entry July 29, 2008). I guess they ran out of convenient actual facts.

SeattleBubble?
This is a forum for posting actual facts about the Seattle area real estate market.

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]]> By: cm http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63041 cm Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:27:06 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63041 Tim, Wouldn't comparing different markets decline from peak be skewed by the Start of the credit crisis in Aug 07?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63041','cm',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63041','cm','Tim,\r\n\r\nWouldn\'t comparing different markets decline from peak be skewed by the Start of the credit crisis in Aug 07?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Tim,

Wouldn’t comparing different markets decline from peak be skewed by the Start of the credit crisis in Aug 07?

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]]> By: BubbleBuyer http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63040 BubbleBuyer Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:07:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63040 I feel this blog’s focus on housing really misses the big picture which is the death spiral the US economy is in and has been in for the past decade or so. The housing collapse is only a symptom of a cancer that will result in the decline and collapse of the USA. We have nobody to blame but ourselves for this. We elect incompetent corrupt senators, congressmen and presidents that are owned by special interests both domestic and international. We continue to live way beyond our means, saddling future generations with immense amounts of debt so that we can continue to buy flat screen TVs, drive yank tanks and buy cheap low quality crap from China.

We as a country are adhering to a trade policy of free trade that is structurally flawed, generating massive trade deficits on a daily basis. You cannot enact environmental, labor, minimum wage and financial legislation that US companies are forced to adhere to while allowing Chinese companies to employ slave labor, destroy the environment and manipulate currency to maintain favorable trade dynamics. Any rational business sees the opportunity for labor, environmental and financial arbitrage by eliminating work in the USA and shifting it to Chinese sweatshops. The elimination of good paying jobs results in a bifurcated society. The few lucky enough to make bank for the time being and the rest, flipping burgers or real estate or whatever the latest bubble asset is to get by. The steady state is reached when wages in third world countries approach equalization with those of the USA.

The result of our idiotic trade policy? A $28 billion a month trade deficit with China. An overall trade deficit of $57.2 billion generated monthly or $684 billion annually! That means that every year, the USA borrows this amount from China, Japan and Germany plus more to finance payments on the existing debt. Your share of the total debt owed increases by $2,280 a year. Let’s leave out the budget deficit spending our government embraces for the purposes of this rant. Currently, every man, woman and child in the USA owes in the vicinity of $38,000 which will have to be paid back at some point. Pile on top of that the average credit card balance of the average American family of around $10,000 and try to determine the odds that we can pay this back. You do the math on that. We are all sub prime borrowers or worse and housing is the least of our problems.

Ask any politician about this and their plan for future economic prosperity and you will get a blank stare. They simply are not smart enough lack the basic economic background to comprehend the enormity of the situation or are beholden to foreign / domestic special interests. The approach we seem to be currently embarked on is to keep borrowing at the idiotically low interest rates the morons in China are willing to lend to the USA at. At some point, these idiots will wise up and stop buying newly issued debt enabling us to make interest payments on the existing debt. Then, our only out is to pay the debt back with inflated dollars. i.e. print more dollars. The result, a massive shift out of dollar denominated assets – debt, equity, hard assets – resulting in the collapse of the US dollar, horrific inflation and a complete collapse in the standard of living in the USA.

In the end, we have nobody to blame but ourselves. Who was it who said “it is hard to overestimate the stupidity of the American people”….I am sure it was a well regarded politician.

Happy holidays.

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]]> By: crispy&cole http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63039 crispy&cole Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:28:57 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63039 nevermind...my bad ( I see it know)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63039','crispy&cole',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63039','crispy&cole','nevermind...my bad ( I see it know)',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> nevermind…my bad ( I see it know)
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]]> By: crispy&cole http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63038 crispy&cole Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:27:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63038 Why did I get deleted? I was responding to a few questions above about MSFT layoffs.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63038','crispy&cole',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63038','crispy&cole','Why did I get deleted? I was responding to a few questions above about MSFT layoffs.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Why did I get deleted? I was responding to a few questions above about MSFT layoffs.
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]]> By: crispy&cole http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63037 crispy&cole Wed, 31 Dec 2008 17:20:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63037 MSFT to layoff 15,000?: http://www.layoffdaily.com/ http://www.trustedreviews.com/software/news/2008/12/30/Microsoft-Planning-To-Lay-Off-17--of-Staff/p1 http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11142&Itemid=1<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63037','crispy&cole',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63037','crispy&cole','MSFT to layoff 15,000?:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.layoffdaily.com\/\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.trustedreviews.com\/software\/news\/2008\/12\/30\/Microsoft-Planning-To-Lay-Off-17--of-Staff\/p1\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.fudzilla.com\/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11142&Itemid=1',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> MSFT to layoff 15,000?:

http://www.layoffdaily.com/

http://www.trustedreviews.com/software/news/2008/12/30/Microsoft-Planning-To-Lay-Off-17–of-Staff/p1

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11142&Itemid=1

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]]> By: AndySeattle http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63036 AndySeattle Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:14:37 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63036 Andy can't grow a beard... and is making a bad name for us real Andys<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63036','AndySeattle',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63036','AndySeattle','Andy can\'t grow a beard... and is making a bad name for us real Andys',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Andy can’t grow a beard… and is making a bad name for us real Andys
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]]> By: Angie http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63035 Angie Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:02:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63035 Mama, that's a great observation. Interestingly, Seattle's exactly in the middle between the two major trends on that graph. It appears to be on track with the trends of the Miami to DC group, but has seen much less decline than those cities, only as much as NYC and Boston (though in a shorter time). And can you really say that SF and DC aren't "world class"? Not to mention San Diego, the Gold Standard by which Seattle is measured here on the Bubble. Sadly, I don't think this data set will resolve that dispute. Andy, my friend, your obsession with beards is getting a little out of hand. Just sayin'.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63035','Angie',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63035','Angie','Mama, that\'s a great observation. Interestingly, Seattle\'s exactly in the middle between the two major trends on that graph. It appears to be on track with the trends of the Miami to DC group, but has seen much less decline than those cities, only as much as NYC and Boston (though in a shorter time). And can you really say that SF and DC aren\'t \"world class\"? Not to mention San Diego, the Gold Standard by which Seattle is measured here on the Bubble. \r\nSadly, I don\'t think this data set will resolve that dispute. \r\n\r\nAndy, my friend, your obsession with beards is getting a little out of hand. Just sayin\'.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Mama, that’s a great observation. Interestingly, Seattle’s exactly in the middle between the two major trends on that graph. It appears to be on track with the trends of the Miami to DC group, but has seen much less decline than those cities, only as much as NYC and Boston (though in a shorter time). And can you really say that SF and DC aren’t “world class”? Not to mention San Diego, the Gold Standard by which Seattle is measured here on the Bubble.
Sadly, I don’t think this data set will resolve that dispute.

Andy, my friend, your obsession with beards is getting a little out of hand. Just sayin’.

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]]> By: Mama http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63034 Mama Wed, 31 Dec 2008 13:58:42 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63034 Does anyone find the graph really interesting with respect to the "world-class city" debate we had about Seattle a while ago. It strikes me that the graphs for NYC and Boston are pretty different from the rest...despite the fact that they've seen fairly heavy layofffs in the financial industry<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63034','Mama',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63034','Mama','Does anyone find the graph really interesting with respect to the \"world-class city\" debate we had about Seattle a while ago. It strikes me that the graphs for NYC and Boston are pretty different from the rest...despite the fact that they\'ve seen fairly heavy layofffs in the financial industry',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Does anyone find the graph really interesting with respect to the “world-class city” debate we had about Seattle a while ago. It strikes me that the graphs for NYC and Boston are pretty different from the rest…despite the fact that they’ve seen fairly heavy layofffs in the financial industry
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]]> By: Andy http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63033 Andy Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:25:32 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63033 By the way, the Gig Harbor Homes I am watching are falling apart - homeowners are running like roaches - dropping prices or just taking them off the market. Many are defaulting b/c they were sure they would scam some other idiot (paying 40% more for a depreciating asset). Gig Harbor is doomed - freaking mill rate + assessments are a joke too. Too bad the idiot lazy lumberjacks with huge beards cannot afford the taxes. Haha.. Another great article on WAMU - Seattle's stupid neighborhood bank - full of guys with beards and EMO's (loaded with missing ear lobes and make-up) working as tellers. What a joke - Seattle is too forgiving to miscreants. You should toss these preverse cultures (that seem to develop here) into the Puget Sound. Just walk near Pike place - they are all smoking dope nearby. Please check out the following "GREAT" New York Times article; will explain everything about this Pacific Northwest Roach Motel + overpaid shamucks that infest King County. Considering how lazy people are here; there will be many more defaults and company failures. By the way, Puget Sound Energy was sold. For all my fellow bubble preveyors, the housing collapse is coming soon. May all of you maximaize your ability to get what YOU want! Not what some uneducated Real Estate Broker tells you... http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/28/business/wamu.php Sorry for my rant; had a good time at happy hour...<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63033','Andy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63033','Andy','By the way, the Gig Harbor Homes I am watching are falling apart - homeowners are running like roaches - dropping prices or just taking them off the market. Many are defaulting b\/c they were sure they would scam some other idiot (paying 40% more for a depreciating asset). Gig Harbor is doomed - freaking mill rate + assessments are a joke too. Too bad the idiot lazy lumberjacks with huge beards cannot afford the taxes. Haha..\r\n\r\nAnother great article on WAMU - Seattle\'s stupid neighborhood bank - full of guys with beards and EMO\'s (loaded with missing ear lobes and make-up) working as tellers. What a joke - Seattle is too forgiving to miscreants. You should toss these preverse cultures (that seem to develop here) into the Puget Sound. Just walk near Pike place - they are all smoking dope nearby. \r\n\r\nPlease check out the following \"GREAT\" New York Times article; will explain everything about this Pacific Northwest Roach Motel + overpaid shamucks that infest King County. Considering how lazy people are here; there will be many more defaults and company failures. By the way, Puget Sound Energy was sold. For all my fellow bubble preveyors, the housing collapse is coming soon. May all of you maximaize your ability to get what YOU want! Not what some uneducated Real Estate Broker tells you...\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.iht.com\/articles\/2008\/12\/28\/business\/wamu.php\r\n\r\nSorry for my rant; had a good time at happy hour...',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> By the way, the Gig Harbor Homes I am watching are falling apart – homeowners are running like roaches – dropping prices or just taking them off the market. Many are defaulting b/c they were sure they would scam some other idiot (paying 40% more for a depreciating asset). Gig Harbor is doomed – freaking mill rate + assessments are a joke too. Too bad the idiot lazy lumberjacks with huge beards cannot afford the taxes. Haha..

Another great article on WAMU – Seattle’s stupid neighborhood bank – full of guys with beards and EMO’s (loaded with missing ear lobes and make-up) working as tellers. What a joke – Seattle is too forgiving to miscreants. You should toss these preverse cultures (that seem to develop here) into the Puget Sound. Just walk near Pike place – they are all smoking dope nearby.

Please check out the following “GREAT” New York Times article; will explain everything about this Pacific Northwest Roach Motel + overpaid shamucks that infest King County. Considering how lazy people are here; there will be many more defaults and company failures. By the way, Puget Sound Energy was sold. For all my fellow bubble preveyors, the housing collapse is coming soon. May all of you maximaize your ability to get what YOU want! Not what some uneducated Real Estate Broker tells you…

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/28/business/wamu.php

Sorry for my rant; had a good time at happy hour…

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]]> By: Andy http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63032 Andy Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:06:11 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63032 This market is dead; good riddance... I love hearing my colleagues tell me that they coould not afford the Bellevue homes they live in - if they were to buy them today. What a crock! BURN BABY BURN! Lets get to a sane economy; not a housing bubble. Another wonderful dialogue from Mr. Schiff. Watch this video and let me know your thoughts. http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Bloomberg-10-28-08_lg.asp<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63032','Andy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63032','Andy','This market is dead; good riddance...\r\nI love hearing my colleagues tell me that they coould not afford the Bellevue homes they live in - if they were to buy them today. What a crock!\r\nBURN BABY BURN!\r\n\r\nLets get to a sane economy; not a housing bubble. Another wonderful dialogue from Mr. Schiff. Watch this video and let me know your thoughts. \r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.europac.net\/Schiff-Bloomberg-10-28-08_lg.asp',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This market is dead; good riddance…
I love hearing my colleagues tell me that they coould not afford the Bellevue homes they live in – if they were to buy them today. What a crock!
BURN BABY BURN!

Lets get to a sane economy; not a housing bubble. Another wonderful dialogue from Mr. Schiff. Watch this video and let me know your thoughts.

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Bloomberg-10-28-08_lg.asp

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]]> By: singliac http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63031 singliac Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:50:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63031 I wonder how far prices have rewound when factoring in inflation. Anyone care to look it up?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63031','singliac',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63031','singliac','I wonder how far prices have rewound when factoring in inflation. Anyone care to look it up?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I wonder how far prices have rewound when factoring in inflation. Anyone care to look it up?
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]]> By: jonness http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63029 jonness Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:06:32 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63029 Sorry, here is the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=76669<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63029','jonness',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63029','jonness','Sorry, here is the link:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http:\/\/www.tickerforum.org\/cgi-ticker\/akcs-www?post=76669',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Sorry, here is the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=76669

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]]> By: jonness http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63028 jonness Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:04:52 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63028 During the Great Depression, there were a lot of sucker rallies and large gainers that were followed by even larger crashes. That's how these things play out. Smart financial advisers recommended their clients use these rally points to sell. Here is an interesting analysis where Harry Dent recommends a similar course of action (I'm posting in regards to bottom calling): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=76669<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63028','jonness',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63028','jonness','During the Great Depression, there were a lot of sucker rallies and large gainers that were followed by even larger crashes. That\'s how these things play out. Smart financial advisers recommended their clients use these rally points to sell. Here is an interesting analysis where Harry Dent recommends a similar course of action (I\'m posting in regards to bottom calling):\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http:\/\/www.tickerforum.org\/cgi-ticker\/akcs-www?post=76669',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> During the Great Depression, there were a lot of sucker rallies and large gainers that were followed by even larger crashes. That’s how these things play out. Smart financial advisers recommended their clients use these rally points to sell. Here is an interesting analysis where Harry Dent recommends a similar course of action (I’m posting in regards to bottom calling):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9A_bIEfM1g&eurl=http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=76669

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]]> By: jonness http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63027 jonness Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:36:50 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63027 OK all you gloom and doomers. Here's proof that we finally reached the bottom: http://www.blip.tv/file/1528079?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63027','jonness',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63027','jonness','OK all you gloom and doomers. Here\'s proof that we finally reached the bottom:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.blip.tv\/file\/1528079?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> OK all you gloom and doomers. Here’s proof that we finally reached the bottom:

http://www.blip.tv/file/1528079?

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]]> By: Joe http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63026 Joe Wed, 31 Dec 2008 01:57:07 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63026 @17, This one is pretty nice: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63026','Joe',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63026','Joe','@17, This one is pretty nice:\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/04\/10\/business\/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> @17, This one is pretty nice:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html#

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]]> By: obelus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63025 obelus Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:46:23 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63025 Microsoft must cut back one way or another. A third of their revenue is from Windows (Vista was a bust), a third from Office (2007 was a bust). The latest versions of their two biggest cash cows have done terribly where it counts, in the business marketplace (also, cut backs coming to businesses everywhere; less licensing for MS products new and old).<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63025','obelus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63025','obelus','Microsoft must cut back one way or another. A third of their revenue is from Windows (Vista was a bust), a third from Office (2007 was a bust). The latest versions of their two biggest cash cows have done terribly where it counts, in the business marketplace (also, cut backs coming to businesses everywhere; less licensing for MS products new and old).',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Microsoft must cut back one way or another. A third of their revenue is from Windows (Vista was a bust), a third from Office (2007 was a bust). The latest versions of their two biggest cash cows have done terribly where it counts, in the business marketplace (also, cut backs coming to businesses everywhere; less licensing for MS products new and old).
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]]> By: WontBuy http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63024 WontBuy Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:17:13 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63024 You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63024','WontBuy',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63024','WontBuy','You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> You guys do realize, of course, there is no way a bottom would be predictable. What will happen is within the next few months, Seattle will quickly catch up with the gang.
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]]> By: hzg http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63023 hzg Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:58:15 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63023 The story in the link below seems to forecast big news from Microsoft. Can anyone confirm this? http://www.geldpress.com/2008/12/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways/<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63023','hzg',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63023','hzg','The story in the link below seems to forecast big news from Microsoft. Can anyone confirm this?\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.geldpress.com\/2008\/12\/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways\/',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The story in the link below seems to forecast big news from Microsoft. Can anyone confirm this?

http://www.geldpress.com/2008/12/seattle-housing-microsoft-layoffs-and-mortgage-walk-aways/

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]]> By: Slumlord http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63022 Slumlord Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:52:20 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63022 I messed up the link. Here is the long version: http://web5.co.snohomish.wa.us/propsys/Asr-Tr-PropInq/PropInfo05-StructData.asp?parcel=00516858202700&lrsn=1121255&Ext=R01&StClass=Dwelling&Yr=1895&ImpId=D&ImpType=DWELL%20%20%20&StType=2%20Story%20w/Basement<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63022','Slumlord',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63022','Slumlord','I messed up the link. Here is the long version: http:\/\/web5.co.snohomish.wa.us\/propsys\/Asr-Tr-PropInq\/PropInfo05-StructData.asp?parcel=00516858202700&lrsn=1121255&Ext=R01&StClass=Dwelling&Yr=1895&ImpId=D&ImpType=DWELL%20%20%20&StType=2%20Story%20w\/Basement',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I messed up the link. Here is the long version: http://web5.co.snohomish.wa.us/propsys/Asr-Tr-PropInq/PropInfo05-StructData.asp?parcel=00516858202700&lrsn=1121255&Ext=R01&StClass=Dwelling&Yr=1895&ImpId=D&ImpType=DWELL%20%20%20&StType=2%20Story%20w/Basement
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]]> By: Slumlord http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63021 Slumlord Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:49:51 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63021 You could always rent a place that already has your name on it, the McManus mansion. I’m not kidding, I jogged by it the other day and there was a for rent sign up. (Though I’ve met the owner, and he really is a slumlord.) Here is the assessor’s photo.
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]]> By: Big Worm http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63020 Big Worm Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:42:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63020 Is there a rent vs. buy calculator somewhere? I know there's an article on the site that deals with this subject, but that only calculates down to a -2% drop in real estate prices... and the 11% stock market return is a bit outdated as well. It would be nice to be able to fill in current interest rates, change the alternative investment rate to like 3.5% for a CD, and drop the annual depreciation down to -12% or something.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63020','Big Worm',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63020','Big Worm','Is there a rent vs. buy calculator somewhere? I know there\'s an article on the site that deals with this subject, but that only calculates down to a -2% drop in real estate prices... and the 11% stock market return is a bit outdated as well. \r\n\r\nIt would be nice to be able to fill in current interest rates, change the alternative investment rate to like 3.5% for a CD, and drop the annual depreciation down to -12% or something.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Is there a rent vs. buy calculator somewhere? I know there’s an article on the site that deals with this subject, but that only calculates down to a -2% drop in real estate prices… and the 11% stock market return is a bit outdated as well.

It would be nice to be able to fill in current interest rates, change the alternative investment rate to like 3.5% for a CD, and drop the annual depreciation down to -12% or something.

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]]> By: David McManus http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63019 David McManus Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:19:14 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63019 <blockquote> EastsideRealEstateAgent // Dec 30, 2008 at 1:33 pm Good News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save. </blockquote> I should get out there and buy then!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63019','David McManus',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63019','David McManus','<blockquote>\r\n EastsideRealEstateAgent \/\/ Dec 30, 2008 at 1:33 pm\r\n\r\nGood News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save.\r\n\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nI should get out there and buy then!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div>

EastsideRealEstateAgent // Dec 30, 2008 at 1:33 pm

Good News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save.

I should get out there and buy then!

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]]> By: Buceri http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63018 Buceri Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:52:58 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63018 The market went up over 2%. GM over 5%!!! The housing market is saved!!!!!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63018','Buceri',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63018','Buceri','The market went up over 2%. GM over 5%!!! \r\n\r\nThe housing market is saved!!!!!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The market went up over 2%. GM over 5%!!!

The housing market is saved!!!!!

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]]> By: EastsideRealEstateAgent http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63017 EastsideRealEstateAgent Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:33:43 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63017 Good News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63017','EastsideRealEstateAgent',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63017','EastsideRealEstateAgent','Good News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Good News!! Microsoft WONT be laying off 10% of its workforce after all!! Their stock went up 2% today!! That should save them the $900 Million they have been hoping to save.
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]]> By: pfft http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63016 pfft Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:33:40 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63016 The fact that Seattle lags would be a interesting thing to know if you were trading housing futures, huh?<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63016','pfft',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63016','pfft','The fact that Seattle lags would be a interesting thing to know if you were trading housing futures, huh?',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The fact that Seattle lags would be a interesting thing to know if you were trading housing futures, huh?
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]]> By: Matthew http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63015 Matthew Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:56:22 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63015 If we are following San Diego, the next 6-12 months are going to be the worst months yet. Stay tuned.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63015','Matthew',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63015','Matthew','If we are following San Diego, the next 6-12 months are going to be the worst months yet.\r\n\r\nStay tuned.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> If we are following San Diego, the next 6-12 months are going to be the worst months yet.

Stay tuned.

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]]> By: Scotsman http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63011 Scotsman Tue, 30 Dec 2008 18:42:54 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63011 I don't see any of those lines starting to even flatten out, let alone head back up. There is no bottom in sight- anywhere. Relax, write out the January rent check, plan a nice summer vacation with some of the savings. Our economy needs you to spend, and there are some great deals available! Just not in housing.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63011','Scotsman',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63011','Scotsman','I don\'t see any of those lines starting to even flatten out, let alone head back up. There is no bottom in sight- anywhere. Relax, write out the January rent check, plan a nice summer vacation with some of the savings. Our economy needs you to spend, and there are some great deals available! Just not in housing.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> I don’t see any of those lines starting to even flatten out, let alone head back up. There is no bottom in sight- anywhere. Relax, write out the January rent check, plan a nice summer vacation with some of the savings. Our economy needs you to spend, and there are some great deals available! Just not in housing.
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]]> By: Dave0 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63009 Dave0 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 18:25:32 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63009 “Wanna catch the market’s very bottom? Just sit tight and wait until The Tim buys a house :)”

Ha! You’ll probably miss the bottom then. I bet Tim will still be “housesitting” when the bottom comes and will still have no incentive to start paying a mortgage since he essentially has free rent.

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]]> By: Groundhogday http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63007 Groundhogday Tue, 30 Dec 2008 18:01:27 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63007 As Tim has pointed out and illustrated, the Pacific Northwest is actually declining faster than other comparable markets relative to the peak date. I'd surmise that this is due largely to the following factors: (1) economic downturn as a result of global bust hits before the local bust effects are manifested; (2) tightening lending standards due to the leading busts in other states; and (3) market psychology has shifted faster due to national press coverage of real estate collapses elsewhere. This is all good news for those of us who would like to purchase (at a price that makes financial sense). We will reach the bottom faster and re-establish a viable, healthy real estate market based upon home values that match local incomes and rents.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63007','Groundhogday',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63007','Groundhogday','As Tim has pointed out and illustrated, the Pacific Northwest is actually declining faster than other comparable markets relative to the peak date. I\'d surmise that this is due largely to the following factors: (1) economic downturn as a result of global bust hits before the local bust effects are manifested; (2) tightening lending standards due to the leading busts in other states; and (3) market psychology has shifted faster due to national press coverage of real estate collapses elsewhere.\r\n\r\nThis is all good news for those of us who would like to purchase (at a price that makes financial sense). We will reach the bottom faster and re-establish a viable, healthy real estate market based upon home values that match local incomes and rents.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> As Tim has pointed out and illustrated, the Pacific Northwest is actually declining faster than other comparable markets relative to the peak date. I’d surmise that this is due largely to the following factors: (1) economic downturn as a result of global bust hits before the local bust effects are manifested; (2) tightening lending standards due to the leading busts in other states; and (3) market psychology has shifted faster due to national press coverage of real estate collapses elsewhere.

This is all good news for those of us who would like to purchase (at a price that makes financial sense). We will reach the bottom faster and re-establish a viable, healthy real estate market based upon home values that match local incomes and rents.

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]]> By: Alex http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63006 Alex Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:55:54 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63006 Wanna catch the market's very bottom? Just sit tight and wait until The Tim buys a house :)<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63006','Alex',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63006','Alex','Wanna catch the market\'s very bottom? Just sit tight and wait until The Tim buys a house :)',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Wanna catch the market’s very bottom? Just sit tight and wait until The Tim buys a house :)
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]]> By: pfft http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63005 pfft Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:44:25 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63005 “which points to Seattle having the most predictable market bottom in the history of housing market bottoms.”

now that is a good point.

“So I guess it’s not predictive after all.”

stop being so modest buddy. you ain’t fooling us!

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]]> By: pfft http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63004 pfft Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:40:36 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63004 "well add 1% decline" just that will cost you $1700 a month! just saving that by renting for 18 months will save you $30,000. consider these extra costs or savings. you don't have to furnish a new home. you don't have to make repairs. you don't have to pay property taxes. while you wait what you want to buy will go down as will interest payments when you finally buy.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63004','pfft',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63004','pfft','\"well add 1% decline\"\r\n\r\njust that will cost you $1700 a month! just saving that by renting for 18 months will save you $30,000.\r\n\r\nconsider these extra costs or savings. you don\'t have to furnish a new home. you don\'t have to make repairs. you don\'t have to pay property taxes. while you wait what you want to buy will go down as will interest payments when you finally buy.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “well add 1% decline”

just that will cost you $1700 a month! just saving that by renting for 18 months will save you $30,000.

consider these extra costs or savings. you don’t have to furnish a new home. you don’t have to make repairs. you don’t have to pay property taxes. while you wait what you want to buy will go down as will interest payments when you finally buy.

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]]> By: The Tim http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63002 The Tim Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:30:50 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63002 The funny thing to me about the delay-shifted graph is that when <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/06/27/seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle/" rel="nofollow">I first posted it in June 2007</a> the latest Case-Shiller HPI for San Diego (April '07) was down 6.7% YOY. The Seattle line caught up to that point on the San Diego line in my delay chart with <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/11/25/case-shiller-price-drops-accelerating-slightly/" rel="nofollow">last month's Case-Shiller update</a>. We were down 9.8% YOY. So I guess it's not predictive after all. Seattle's doing <em>worse</em> than we would have expected had it followed San Diego since the first time I posted that chart.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63002','The Tim',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63002','The Tim','The funny thing to me about the delay-shifted graph is that when <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2007\/06\/27\/seattle-just-maybe-behind-the-cycle\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">I first posted it in June 2007<\/a> the latest Case-Shiller HPI for San Diego (April \'07) was down 6.7% YOY.\n\nThe Seattle line caught up to that point on the San Diego line in my delay chart with <a href=\"http:\/\/seattlebubble.com\/blog\/2008\/11\/25\/case-shiller-price-drops-accelerating-slightly\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">last month\'s Case-Shiller update<\/a>. We were down 9.8% YOY.\n\nSo I guess it\'s not predictive after all. Seattle\'s doing <em>worse<\/em> than we would have expected had it followed San Diego since the first time I posted that chart.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> The funny thing to me about the delay-shifted graph is that when I first posted it in June 2007 the latest Case-Shiller HPI for San Diego (April ‘07) was down 6.7% YOY.

The Seattle line caught up to that point on the San Diego line in my delay chart with last month’s Case-Shiller update. We were down 9.8% YOY.

So I guess it’s not predictive after all. Seattle’s doing worse than we would have expected had it followed San Diego since the first time I posted that chart.

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]]> By: Interloper http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63001 Interloper Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:26:32 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63001 Shawn may be right. Seattle is lagging the Case-Shiller "Composite 20" cities by 12 months, which points to Seattle having the most predictable market bottom in the history of housing market bottoms. Maybe all we need to do is watch the composite bottom out and wait 12 months for Seattle to follow.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63001','Interloper',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63001','Interloper','Shawn may be right. \n\nSeattle is lagging the Case-Shiller \"Composite 20\" cities by 12 months, which points to Seattle having the most predictable market bottom in the history of housing market bottoms. Maybe all we need to do is watch the composite bottom out and wait 12 months for Seattle to follow.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Shawn may be right.

Seattle is lagging the Case-Shiller “Composite 20″ cities by 12 months, which points to Seattle having the most predictable market bottom in the history of housing market bottoms. Maybe all we need to do is watch the composite bottom out and wait 12 months for Seattle to follow.

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]]> By: pfft http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-63000 pfft Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:21:38 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-63000 "This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only" I'm starting to not believe that anymore!<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('63000','pfft',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('63000','pfft','\"This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only\"\r\n\r\nI\'m starting to not believe that anymore!',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> “This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only”

I’m starting to not believe that anymore!

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]]> By: tj http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-62999 tj Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:43:19 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-62999 Like a long distance runner it seems like Seattle has found it's pace of 1% decline/month. Renters are often acccused of "throwing away money" each month, well add 1% decline + the interrest you will pay each month by buying and you will endup with an amount 3 - 4 times the cost of renting. That is truly throwing away money.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62999','tj',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62999','tj','Like a long distance runner it seems like Seattle has found it\'s pace of 1% decline\/month. Renters are often acccused of \"throwing away money\" each month, well add 1% decline + the interrest you will pay each month by buying and you will endup with an amount 3 - 4 times the cost of renting. That is truly throwing away money.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> Like a long distance runner it seems like Seattle has found it’s pace of 1% decline/month. Renters are often acccused of “throwing away money” each month, well add 1% decline + the interrest you will pay each month by buying and you will endup with an amount 3 – 4 times the cost of renting. That is truly throwing away money.
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]]> By: shawn http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/12/30/case-shiller-seattle-hits-10-yoy-price-drops/#comment-62998 shawn Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:23:02 +0000 http://seattlebubble.com/blog/?p=3755#comment-62998 This suggests to me that when we see evidence that the nation's housing mess is over, that the bottom has been met and things are actually improving, that prices have gone up for a few quarters, well that is when we know that Seattle is at its bottom, and it is a good time to buy. It is nice to be behind the curve rather than leading the pack.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('62998','shawn',''); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('62998','shawn','This suggests to me that when we see evidence that the nation\'s housing mess is over, that the bottom has been met and things are actually improving, that prices have gone up for a few quarters, well that is when we know that Seattle is at its bottom, and it is a good time to buy. It is nice to be behind the curve rather than leading the pack.',''); return false;">Quote</a></div> This suggests to me that when we see evidence that the nation’s housing mess is over, that the bottom has been met and things are actually improving, that prices have gone up for a few quarters, well that is when we know that Seattle is at its bottom, and it is a good time to buy. It is nice to be behind the curve rather than leading the pack.
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