Good Luck and may I suggest:

Dicks
Pagliacci
Jasmine Grill
and an abundance of Thai restaurants

We went on market in early March 2008, for $479,000. Home across the street went up as a short sale four days later, for $469,000. We said, holy "chocolate", we’ve got to move and move fast. Dropped our price to $449,000 the next day. Three days later we had an offer for $425,000 with 10% down and no contingent sale. We took it.

So we dropped our price by $54,000 in seven days in order to sell in that market. And this was nine months ago! Zillow *now* zestimates that house at $369,000. If we hadn’t sold when we did we would have been close to losing every penny of our equity (such as it was). Thank God we didn’t refinance it…

Now we’re here, renting, and waiting. The absolute earliest we would even think about buying something is fall of 2010. Looking at the charts here, it seems plain as day that just about all the gain in prices since 2001 or so has been pure unjustified bubble. If prices revert to 2001 levels, it will mean another 25% or so drop in prices. Which seems totally conceivable; the house we’re renting now (6514 113th Ave. NE, Kirkland) was Zestimated at $754,000 in the middle of 2007. Seven months ago: $700,000. Now: $600,000. 2001 value: $400,000. I see no reason it shouldn’t drop to around $450,000 over the next two years. And THAT will be the time to buy — when the local Case-Shiller curves have flattened out for three months running.

Your good analysis and reporting is well worth the wait.

It may sound like a contradiction but signs of stabilization could be a disaster for them if the supply/demand equilibrium has not been reached. Getting people to believe that the market has bottomed is dangerous because it is a one dimensional economic view point and the unseen (multi-dimensional) consequences could make things even worse. Let me explain ….

If people believe the market has stabilized they will return to the market. The problem is that despite it sounding like an oxymoron the demand is more likely to be on the supply (seller) side. Lots of sellers are sitting on the sideline; they would like to sell but are waiting for things to get better. There ‘potential’ sellers will come back to the market a lot quicker than the buyers. Buyers due to other macroeconomic factors will not be able to return as quickly as the sellers.

If one thing is going to drive the market lower it will be an inventory glut caused by sellers rushing to list their house because they think the bottom has been reached when the supply/demand equilibrium is still some way off.

As I have said before Realtors need to help get prices to the bottom ASAP in their own selfish self interest so both buyers and sellers can interact in a balanced market and volume can return. Price stabilization, especially short term stabilization, will not create volume and that (volume) is what realtors need to earn a living.

That can’t seriously be criticism? Tim is practicing what he preaches and living as frugally as possible while he socks money away during by far the greatest deflationary period in our lifetimes. That’s not laughable; that’s brilliant! If saving money while renting is thought to be a smart way to live right now, then figuring out how to live practically rent free is nothing less than genius. Contrast Tim’s gameplan to the guy who financed a house in 2007 along with a couple of new gas guzzlers, and you’ll quickly see what I mean.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/business/story/581321.html

More and more of our infrastructure will be sold off to Foreign entities.
We will pay a tithe to the king of a foreign land to warm our homes.
We will pay tolls to foreign kings to travel what once was our land.

We will not be able drown our sorrows in our own beer.
http://www.babeled.com/2008/07/15/anheuser-busch-and-budweiser-sold-to-inbev-no-longer-an-american-icon/

See the little asterisk next to “Median Closed Price” in the post? That’s been a regular part of the monthly stats post for over a year. As Deejayoh @ 18 said, with such low sales volume, the median is especially susceptible to erroneous fluctuations from month to month that don’t really tell us much about the actual present value of homes.

I’ve been pointing this out the entire time that prices have been on the decline. My comment about the newspapers was more a commentary on their tendency to latch onto a misleading surface statistic and trumpet it as the most newsworthy aspect of a story.

Article 12
REALTORS shall be honest and truthful in their real estate communications and shall present a true picture in their advertising, marketing, and other representations.
Article 15
REALTORS shall not knowingly or recklessly make false or misleading statements about competitors, their businesses, or their business practices. (Amended 1/92)

Price per square foot changes between the size of the home. Houses under 1000 sell for a higher price per square foot, new construction is tied to the type of construction, and much larger homes sell for a lower price per square foot. New construction is taking the biggest hit on price per square foot as builders unload.

I don’t care what Tim’s living situation is; he provided a forum. Many things asserted here are wrong or way out of touch with Real Estate buying or selling, but the discussion is first rate.

The $/sq ft is interesting in that San Diego is $205 and Seattle is $198.

Only if it were the mean or average would one million dollar house affect the statistic disproportionately.

Several homes (most) have sat for months in all price ranges on my hill. How does this impact the median? Spikes up. Is the market fundamentally sound and coming around? Not in my opinion.

Financing:
It is very important that readership here understand that financing IS readily available for those with suspect credit or other non-conventional loan candidates. It is called FHA. Our office is closing a good mix of FHA and Conventional transactions (refinances). We do have purchases but for the most part I’ve almost forgot what they looked like.

There are cases where people are bringing cash to close in refinance transactions.

That is the report from the trenches in the front lines.

It’s been quite a while since there’s been any improvement in year over year data

New buyers entering the market? It used to be Seattle prices were revved up by sellers of more expensive homes moving up from California. No more. CA and other major markets are in a world of hurt, having lost incredible amounts of equity/wealth and turning 1/5 mortgages upside down.

Easier credit terms creating more qualified buyers? Nope. Nothing to explain here.

Stock market wealth? Nope. That’s all evaporated.

Foreign investors? Nope. Their economies are all in recession too, and they invest in NY/LA.

More high-paying local jobs? Well, Wamu is gone with 3000 jobs. Microsoft is laying off. Boeing hasn’t built a single dreamliner yet. The state government is broke. Who’s adding jobs? No company has a stronger balance sheet than Microsoft. If they are laying off, bet that everybody will as well.

Lower rates? Yes and no. According to knowledgeable folks like Mr. Mortgage, very few borrowers are qualifying for the lowest rates. But for the few remaining buyers with sterling credit and enough of a down payment, yes, this lowers their cost.

We should not be surprised to see a pause in the downward spiral. There are no longer bank failures on a weekly basis, so some fear has been removed. However, the recession continues and job losses may grind on for many months. Also, alt-a loan resets continue for up to 2 more years, adding to inventory/foreclosures and reducing the pool of qualified buyers.

Being a care taker is a noble thing to do so I can’t fault you for that, just noticed your situation a person posted in a post the other day.

The cynical part was the comment about the slight up tick in median price, I am sure if it went the other day we would have been bombarded with the charts and graphs on peak to trough etc but I guess u have a month off.

I thought I would return some of the favor with my somewhat smart a** post.

Surprising some industry observers, inventory showed stability. The number of new listings added to inventory during December (5,430) nearly matched the total from a year ago (5,543). Those figures include single family homes and condos that were added by Northwest MLS members in 19 counties.

But the low inventory isn’t blamed on the snow delaying new listings.

I predict we will see deferred seller activity from December pushed into January.

If he doesn’t buy now, he’ll be priced out forever, the ultimate revenge. Heh, heh, heh.

1) I don’t get what you’re referring to when you say “a stat that does not go the tim’s way.” What stat “didn’t go my way,” and what is “my way,” anyway?

2) Yes, I am open about the fact that my current living situation is as a caretaker, so the only rent I pay is the money I spend on upkeep. Have I paid rent in the past? Of course. Do I want to buy a home in the (hopefully not-too-distant) future? You bet. However, I don’t really see how any of that is relevant to a data-based discussion about the housing market and the merits of renting or buying.

great business idea not sure how long it lasts but entreprenurial none the less I give u kudos for that. Oh and you seem to be pretty good at excel too.