Magnolia: I don’t mean to be critical, but IMO believing that people at this website’s desire for layoffs is causing the massive downturn in the U.S. economy is quite a stretch of the imagination. There is a big difference between an optimist like yourself and a realist like myself. It’s not that I want layoffs. It’s that I want to follow the truth and prepare myself as best as possible for what is real in the world.

What is happening is quite interesting; thus, I do take joy in better understanding it. Part of that joy is predicting the next stage of the correction and then testing later to see if my prediction holds. Please understand, this process of analysis, prediction, and testing helps me to better understand the cycle that we are in. The better I understand this situation, the more I can prepare for it and protect myself and my family from the wrath of economic damage that’s occuring around me. So far, my observations have led me to not buy a house at the peak of a massive asset bubble right before it crashed. I came close to selling my current home at the peak, but due to family matters, I elected to hang on to it for another decade or so. However, I did choose to close out my long positions in equities and bet money on shorts. I’ve also been hoarding cash in the midst of the worst deflationary period since the Great Depression.

It’s important to note, If I hadn’t been paying attention, I would have been cleaned out like so many other unfortunate people around me. The damage is real, and I feel terrible for what has happened to others. However, I can’t say I’m sorry for having spent the time it took to become informed about the future so that I could protect myself and my family.

It’s fitting that you liken bubbleheads to “pigs,” because I feel like the member of the 3 little pigs that built his house out of brick right before the Big Bad Wolf came to knock on the door. The desperation in your tone leads me to believe you built less of a fortress and are concerned about the power of the wolf.

IMO, it is much better to become informed about what is taking place around you than to simply allow yourself to become a blind cheerleader of optimism and hope since you closed your eyes that it will become somebody else’s problem or that someone else will come to your rescue. I would warn such people to “be careful of what they DON’T wish for.” Because if they don’t keep their eye on the game, their worst fears could sneak up behind them and be upon them like a thief in the night.

What is occuring is due to macroeconomic forces in the global economy. Within this larger picture, Seattle’s part is a grain of sand on the overall beach. Seattlebubble is no more than a grain of sand in Seattle, and what is said at this website has very little to do with what’s occurring. You have to expect that in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, groups of people will form to discuss in a realistic manner what is occuring. And in other places, groups will form to try and stop the damage by collectively closing their eyes and cheering.

Layoffs can be a big surprise, but if you are prepared financially for it, then it’s not a big deal.

If, on the other hand, you work at Boeing, a company that frequently has to lay people off in bad times, drive a brand new car you are making payments on, along with a boat, in the driveway or garage of the home you paid more than you really could afford to in 2004, 2005, 2006 or 2007, then yeah, it sucks to be you.

Layoffs only suck for those who are not prepared financially for that possibility.

But hey, when you don’t work for yourself, these things can, and do, happen!

You should ALWAYS have an exit strategy that will leave you with money in your pocket when working for “the man”.

Personally, if layoffs lead to drastic price reductions in Seattle, the realization of Seattle residents that Seattle just isn’t THAT special and a massive reduction in the amount of debt people are “preapproved” to take on, then you will hear no complaints from me.

I will be more than happy to move back to Seattle when blood is running in the streets and won’t feel sorry for those that feel they were blindsided by it.

If you didn’t see it coming, you weren’t paying attention.

But I think there are going to be better deals to be had in places far more desirable than Seattle.

And please don’t try and back pedal the tone of some posts in the past has been waiting or wanting something like this so you can say “see I was right” and “homes have top drop even more now”.

Like I have said in the past be careful what you wish for. But for now enjoy and speculate on the next layoff bomb…. The term “pigs” comes to mind.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Boeing-plans-4500-job-cuts/story.aspx?guid={76BBBF46-1D97-415B-B94D-5F03F90E6242}&dist=hplatest

Inside MS, first offs would be green card holders and citizens. All major tech companies do the same. But many contractors are holding h1bs and i don’t think these small consultant companies sourcing MS will take care of h1b status for these fellas…

Isn’t there some law that if MS does have “layoffs” they have to unload the H1B’s before US citizens? If that’s the case, you probably won’t hear of official layoffs.

“State unemployment claims set new records

OLYMPIA – Despite snow-related closures and overloaded telephone systems, the Employment Security Department took in a record number of new unemployment claims in December.

Some 90,331 people applied for regular unemployment benefits in December, an increase of about 75 percent over December 2007. The previous record was set in December 2001, when 72,942 people filed initial claims.

The week of Dec. 21-27, 2008, which included the Christmas holiday, also set a one-week record, taking in 25,687 new unemployment claims, nearly twice as many as the same week in 2007.

Employment Security Commissioner Karen Lee said the record numbers of applications are especially staggering, considering that the department’s unemployment call centers were closed or understaffed for several days in December due to snow and the offices were closed on Christmas Day.
“We knew the workload was skyrocketing, but were surprised when we saw the final numbers for the month,” said Lee. “We’ve been increasing our phone capacity as fast as possible in order to help people with their unemployment claims.”

In addition to adding phone lines, the department has doubled staff at its unemployment call centers since last summer and is working to hire and train additional staff.

At the end of 2008, more than 136,000 Washingtonians were receiving unemployment benefits, compared to 72,910 at the end of 2007.
Unemployment benefits are paid out of the state’s unemployment-insurance trust fund. The trust fund has a current balance of more than $4 billion and is considered to be one of the healthiest in the nation.

By law, the maximum weekly unemployment benefit is $541 and the minimum is $129. The average weekly payment in 2008 was about $350.”

What will happen to Eastside rentals?

Actually, rents are really starting to soften. In the last few months I have noticed the volume of Bellevue rentals on craigslist to have ballooned. Moreover, a huge number of the ads are offering all kinds of inducements, ranging from 2 rent-free months to no credit checks. I am just stunned to see the rental ads even say “reduced” price. This is a BIG change from just 6 months ago.

Something has definitely changed.