Let’s check in on the NWMLS statistics from around the sound.
Here’s where the YOY stats stand for each of the six counties as of December 2008:
(Note: The “Sales” data below represents pending sales, not closed sales.)
King - Price: -7.2% | Listings: +6.4% | Sales: -16.1% | MOS: 9.6
Snohomish - Price: -11.2% | Listings: -5.5% | Sales: -13.3% | MOS: 9.6
Pierce - Price: -14.5% | Listings: -9.7% | Sales: -8.5% | MOS: 10.6
Kitsap - Price: -16.4% | Listings: -5.2% | Sales: -19.3% | MOS: 12.8
Thurston - Price: -3.6% | Listings: -4.4% | Sales: +5.4% | MOS: 7.4
Island - Price: -19.0% | Listings: -2.3% | Sales: -6.0% | MOS: 18.3
Skagit - Price: -3.3% | Listings: -0.2% | Sales: -25.0% | MOS: 15.1
I really liked the simplicity of the closed sales chart I introduced last month, so here it is again, updated for December:
Snohomish and Skagit counties saw larger year-to-year declines in closed sales than King.
The graphs below only represent the market action since January 2006. If you want to see the long-term trends, feel free to download the spreadsheet (or in Excel 2003 format) that all of these graphs come from, and adjust the x-axis to your liking. Also included in the spreadsheet is data for Whatcom County, for anyone up north that might be interested.
First up, it’s raw median prices.
Median prices increased slightly month-to-month in King, Pierce, and Thurston counties, while declining in Snohomish, Kitsap, Island, and Skagit. Prices fell the most in Island County, where the median dropped $45,592 from November (after increasing by nearly that much the month before). Again though, this was based on a mere 44 closed sales, so it’s you can’t really draw any great conclusions from the dramatic swings in the median.
Here’s how each of the counties look compared to their peak:
King - Peak: July 2007 | Down 16.1%
Snohomish - Peak: March 2007 | Down 16.7%
Pierce - Peak: August 2007 | Down 18.7%
Kitsap - Peak: September 2007 | Down 27.1%
Thurston - Peak: July 2007 | Down 9.4%
Island - Peak: August 2007 | Down 20.7%
Skagit - Peak: June 2007 | Down 16.1%
Ouch. Prices in Kitsap have now fallen over a quarter from the peak, and Island is down just over 20%. The crash is well underway.
Here’s another take on Median Prices, looking at the year-to-year changes over the last two years.
No county had positive price growth year-over-year. After last month’s wild upward swing in Island County, the YOY data had an even more extreme downward spike in December, coming in with the worst YOY performance of the bunch at nearly 20%.
Here’s the graph of listings for each county, indexed to January 2006.
Listings continued their usual winter decline, with King County still coming in slightly ahead of the other Puget Sound counties for overall growth.
Here’s a look at the YOY change in listings.
King was the only countiy to have more homes on the market than December last year. Pierce had the largest inventory drop again, coming in at about -10% for the second month in a row.
Pending sales, also indexed to January 2006:
Pending sales marked moderate declines in every county but Thurston, which marked an increased of 15 pending sales from November to December. King and Pierce joined Snohomish and Island counties in December in the below 50% club.
Lastly, here’s the YOY graph of sales:
Only Thurston County marked a year-over-year increase in pending sales from December 2007. Other counties were down between 6% and 25%.
Island County posted over 20 Months of Supply for the second month in a row in December. The county with the lowest MOS in December was Thurston, which came in at 7.4. King and Snohomish tied for second-lowest at 9.6.
Roger » Jan 21, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Island County has a long ways to fall still, I think. Less than 15% of the homes here are priced below the affordable levels for someone making median King County incomes, let alone the median for this area. Yeah, it’s a retirement area, but with the markets in the tank “rich” retirees are fewer and farther between.
There are several houses within a stone’s throw of me that have been on the market for almost two years now.
Objectivity » Jan 21, 2009 at 1:04 pm
This party is just getting started. I’m glad to be a stupid renter right now.
deejayoh » Jan 21, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Looking at that last chart, it seems pretty clear that there was a significant change in the way “pending sales” are calculated back in ~Sept of this year. I know we have talked about it before, but that chart makes i pretty obvious.
Lake Hills Renter » Jan 21, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Might be nice to make the sales chart a stacked bar chart to show how many were foreclosures vs short sales vs “normal” sales. No idea if that data is available.
98115_Renter » Jan 21, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Nobody has yet mentioned two months of positive median price increase in King.
EconE » Jan 21, 2009 at 2:37 pm
That Kitsap decline is interesting. A quick look at Bainbridge Island, and the fact that median listing price is $837,500 while the “sold” prices for the last 3 months are 495k helps me to understand Eleua’s frustration over there. Sure, it looks like an very pretty area (just like most of Puget Sound)…but really!
Regardless…for those that are looking on BI…
Here’s a bee-yoo-tee-ful lot for sale…
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Bainbridge-Island/10145-NE-Roberts-Rd-98110/unit-LOT-A/home/17513752
EconE » Jan 21, 2009 at 2:40 pm
98115 Renter.
Not only should you look at median, but even more so, what that “median” will get you. Median price can stay the same, but it’s usually nicer houses that sell during the downturn.
A house that sold for 500k recently, for example, is most likely quite a bit nicer than what sold for 500k a year or two ago.
TheHulk » Jan 21, 2009 at 3:10 pm
98115Renter,
That median price fluctuation is also the reason why median price is such an unreliable indicator (especially with such low sales volume). Case Schiller is a much better index for comparing in relation to historical norms. Sadly those numbers for december wont come out until february.
How was the get together yesterday? Any interesting comments/rumors/news from the bubble bath (a collection of bubble-heads… lol) ?
98115_Renter » Jan 21, 2009 at 3:25 pm
I agree that the median is a bad indicator, but Case Schiller also has its weaknesses, such as it’s large geographic area. “Seattle Area” is a lot different than close-in Seattle city neighborhoods, especially because of the recent gas shocks and volatility.
Anyway, logic would suggest that suburbia/exurbia has larger price declines while city neighborhoods have held value a little better. Perhaps the median numbers are reflecting this.
BanteringBear » Jan 21, 2009 at 4:32 pm
In a declining market, the median doesn’t always head straight down. As many have accurately pointed out, the median now buys a much nicer home. This is better reflected in PPSF. Regardless, small fluctuations month over month do nothing to erase the trend. As I have opined before, I believe WA is in for a rude awakening to say the least. One of the five hardest hit states during the 2001 recession, we’re going to have our @ss handed to us.
Gary » Jan 21, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I know this is not exactly on topic however…
I just heard from a reliable source that Microsoft will announce 4000-8000 layoffs tomorrow or Friday.
I guess we’ll just wait and see.
anony » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:00 pm
I heard it was going to be 100,000 layoffs.
Agent » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:11 pm
I heard half a million were gettin’ laid off…
Ardell DellaLoggia » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Last week I heard 10,000 total, 6,000 local.
jon » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:18 pm
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/archives/160031.asp
pfft » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Is there a chart which breaks down the prices of those “gems” we hear so much about?
patient » Jan 21, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Today:
The worlds biggest chip maker (intel) to layoff 6000.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/21/technology/intel/index.htm?postversion=2009012117
One of the worlds biggest Telecom equipment vendors ( Ericsson ) to layoff 5000
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200901210851DOWJONESDJONLINE000558.htm
I would unfortunately be surprised if the world biggest SW vendor doesn’t follow with a similar announcement. The economy is contracting and investors demands cost savings.
Hugh Dominic » Jan 21, 2009 at 7:02 pm
Long time lurker (over a year) and my first post.
Thanks Tim – as always valuable data clearly presented – and nothing here to change my decision to hold off buying for a while.
I was at the meet up yesterday at Kate’s and it was great to meet some of the regulars in person (West Side Billy, Dave O, EconE, Ira, David Losh, Ray Pepper and others). It was kind of like meeting a small group of minor celebrities – I was a bit star struck I have to admit.
Key insight of the evening: Ray Pepper is a LOT younger than I thought….
There were also a lot of lurkers there like me – nice to see them as well.
Finally comment: yesterday I gave a check to The Tim – a dollar a month for the last year and this year’s paid in advance. Given how much I visit this site and how much value I have gotten out of it, not a lot to pay. I am not sure if it was the inauguration or the fact I couldn’t meet him in person and not express a small amount of gratitude – especially considering how much $$ this site has saved me – but it certainly felt like the right thing to do.
David Losh » Jan 21, 2009 at 7:35 pm
98115,
Doing a search a couple of weeks ago for pending sales i was surprised that prices across the board were selling. Last few months only lower priced properties came up in a similar search. Also in th Gems catagory a house in Magnolia sold for $500K with a view that was easily $750k a year or so ago.
A second part in terms of value are the people who bought non contigent who left a house vacant or with renter waiting for the market to turn. They are dumping for less.
b » Jan 21, 2009 at 7:58 pm
deejayoh -
The NAR decided to change the definition of a pending sale to “a home on the market where one person actually showed up to an open house”.
buystocks » Jan 21, 2009 at 11:24 pm
Actually, I heard the NAR changed the definition of a pending sale to “a gust of wind over 3mph”
what goes up must come down » Jan 22, 2009 at 6:23 am
98115renter, wait until MS layoffs happen you will Seattle proper start taking a hit. I know 3 people who work at MS they are in there 30’s live in Greenlake, Capitol Hill, and Ravenna — bought a few years ago and even though they don’t live paycheck to paycheck will see a huge difference in salary from what they have now to the max paid out for unemployment. Two think they could be on the bubble to go, one thinks he is pretty safe. The funny thing is the one who thinks he is safe is the one who is looking to sell his place now because he thinks he will bank some profit now and is worried a year from now he won’t have that chance.
Magnolia44 » Jan 22, 2009 at 6:34 am
Break out your pom poms guys with your months and months of speculation and asumptions you gett 5k jobs over 18 months. Yes some of you will be sad yes “whst goes up” might not see his fantasy happen of people losing their job then their home , what a sick post above.
Some here are sick doomsdayers good luck with that, many here will be sad the number was not higher and go on with their other scenarios.
Cheers guys live life and stop trying to live others worrying about what ifs etc.
what goes up must come down » Jan 22, 2009 at 7:16 am
Well if it isn’t Mag44 right on time to say everything is A-OK in Seattle, might as well go out and buy a house.
Do you ever think of the crap you spouted and if someone would have listened to it they might be in a situation where they were upside down on a mortgage.
Just like your last sentence — it could be written as — don’t think about things just blindly do them.
what goes up must come down » Jan 22, 2009 at 7:19 am
mag44 I guess you didn’t get this part of my post
“The funny thing is the one who thinks he is safe is the one who is looking to sell his place now because he thinks he will bank some profit now and is worried a year from now he won’t have that chance.”
Magnolia44 » Jan 22, 2009 at 7:20 am
Show me where i ever said everything is fine, or go buy a house. Its never happend.
Gary » Jan 22, 2009 at 7:26 am
To Anony and Agent, I feel sorry for anyone who loses thier job in this economy however your joking about it is really thoughtless.
Who’s eating crow today?
what goes up must come down » Jan 22, 2009 at 7:28 am
what did you mean “stop …. worrying about what ifs” I think the what ifs are not ifs anymore