http://www.geldpress.com/2009/02/redmond-house-decline/

I’m seeing a lot of homes getting placed back on the market lately that were previously listed. I expect the number of homes on the market will reach record levels this year as home owners panic and decide that it’s not worth waiting any longer to sell since the market won’t recover anytime soon.

My gf received a letter recently from a realtor saying that now isn’t a good time to sell because of the high inventory of homes for sale. She wasn’t interested in selling so it’s interesting that the real estate industry is reaching out to home owners to tell them NOT to sell!

NWMLS brokers reported year-over-year drops in both the number of new listings added to inventory during January, and in the total inventory at month end. Members added 10,713 new listings, nearly 2,500 fewer than a year ago, for a decline of nearly 19 percent. At month end, there were 38,171 active listings in the MLS system, about 8 percent fewer than the year-ago total of 41,498. Thirteen counties reported shrinkage in inventory.

So inventory is down, and the number of new listings is down way more than pendings. That says to me that inventory really is going to start trending down (after 2 years of growth!). The market should start clearing as only desperate sellers are left. I expect that we’ll see another 10-15% down this year, but this should be the start of the pig making it’s way through the snake.

Yep, all 600ish of them.

NAR’s 2009 theme song

Hmm… where does this idiot get her information? Seriously, how can you say that with a straight face? There have been thousands of local layoffs, the economy shows no sign of turnaround, and consumer confidence is at all time lows. I guess she gets a lot of practice lying.

“[Accessibility, affordability and diversity define] the sometimes-overlooked, historically blue-collar South Beacon Hill neighborhood, where buyers can find a home in good condition for $350,000-$450,000, minutes from downtown Seattle… South Beacon Hill has taken longer to catch on, but with housing prices out of reach of middle-income buyers in much of Seattle, more people are taking a look.”

So much cognitive discontinuity here! “Catch on” is especially weird in the context of the other article.

I can agree with this assessment, momentum = mass x velocity, and this market is really accelerating downhill.

Ummm….674 sales for the month, yeah that sounds like a good assessment Mr. Hutchings.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

The sooner home prices unwind, the better. A fall to year 2000 prices looks more possible than ever.

Some neighbors close to our rental are considering selling to buy another nearby house. They bought for $475k in March 2003. It’s so tempting to send them the link to this site, but now that we’re interested in the house, it would seem manipulative… especially to someone we barely know who is looking to sell their (admittedly lovely) 1900 sq ft house for the high 600s.

I think we’re about to get our mojo back.

With stickiness I predict another 12-13% down for this year.
Without stickiness, i.e. people run for the exits (those who purchased anytime from 2005 to the end of 2007), and the smart ones should, we will be 30% down from peak at the end of 2009.