Oh no……………..Not that outfit again………Ardell and The Mtg Porter (or something like that) . I remember them. t.

Rhonda and Jillayne actually have some interesting posts, that are not just nonsense. For example, Rhonda raises a lot of interesting mortgage issues, like changing the conventional limit for investors from 4 to 10 houses, and Jillayne was very early bringing the short lived excise tax on short sales to peoples’ attention. Also Jillayne is willing to admit mistakes.

Well you have to think like an Agent. If she has 5 Buyers closing at 2 -3 % a clip thats definitely a bottom for her. See its all in your perspective of a bottom.

RE: LeftOverpricedSeattle @ 3 –

Who or what is an Ardell? Just in case before I buy buy buy!

A google search confirms an “Ardell” is a false eyelash.

There are a lot of Subordinations going on.

http://www.seattlehomeshow.com

I bet they would have been nicer if I mailed them a 500 shirt.

http://www.raincityguide.com/2009/02/09/sunday-night-stats-at-bottom/

Ardell says its the bottom? Well in that case I’m all in! Wait a minute…

Who or what is an Ardell? Just in case before I buy buy buy!

I agree with Kary here. When I look at many of the roofs up here in the PNW it seems as if they take the brunt of the “climate”…moss growing on the northern exposures, rotted wood shakes etc.

It’s wet up here…hard on houses…period.

Far too many homes I have seen need a new roof and about 30 gallons of methylene chloride to strip the weathered paint off in order to give the house a proper refinishing. Wood rot also seems to be an issue. Then there is the condensation problems I’ve seen in the older double pane windows. Cracked driveways seem pretty common also.

Down in L.A. …I’ve heard from a well respected agent, that many deals fell through because of earthquake damage…primarily chimney and foundation damage.

Don’t get me started on the interior factor. Most sellers seem to want “remodeled” prices for their “vintage” homes.

Apparently most people just don’t realize how quickly you can burn through $$$’s (and time) restoring a home….even if you are able to do much of the work yourself.

Also, WR recommends that agents include form 22 NFW, which allows buyers to walk if the property ends up in foreclosure in certain instances. I’m not sure how many agents actually use that addendum, but that could be another reason for short sales not closing.

The only way that short sales or other long-pending sales could cause a continually-increasing discrepancy between pendings and closings like we’re seeing here is if the number of short sales is itself continually increasing. I concede that this is certainly a possibility.

RE: biodieselchris @ 16 – That’s a good idea. I don’t currently have a single page that has all the latest charts, but I’ll think about making one and linking it somewhere prominent.

Anyways…..

What about short sales? Offer goes in and it takes months for the bank to accept or decline.

I guess one piece of information that is missing in this analysis is the “inventory” of pending sales. If that is growing, then you probably have an issue of deferred closures rather than failures (e.g. now taking more than 30 days). I kind of doubt that is the case, but it could be.

I am curious how often this may be the case.

As to amount, there is no standard percentage. I’ve seen them as low as $500 and as high as $100,000. Low is more common now than two years ago.

So new buyers are slowly trickling into the market, but many of them aren’t leaving.

Cold feet could likely result in the loss of earnest money, although many deals are written with incredibly small amounts . . . .

Good point. Showing my ignorance…

Question Kary – could buyers have cold feet ” but disguise it as something else?

And what is a typical earnest % percentage these days?

Seems like simple “cold feet” would be a logical cause for this – if you were watching the news in Oct/Nov/Dec it was pretty grim and even the most ardent Pink Pony admirer might have put the brakes on.

Cold feet could likely result in the loss of earnest money, although many deals are written with incredibly small amounts . . . .

It could also be layoff notices.

Note, I think with the news from Boeing, Starbucks and MS we may see a similar gap this quarter.

And I agree, it would be nice to see someone in the media pick up on the disparity between the two figures – especially since RE industry spokespeople are always quoting pending sales stats as “proof” the market is picking up….

Pending – Past most arbitrary items, though financing is still the biggest hurdle.

Right now, many buyers are not closing, but not walking away from the contract due to the stimulus package and the potential for a $10k tax credit windfall. I know of 8 such contracts that should have closed by now.

Financing is the #1 reason why buyers fail to close on time right now… mortgage broker’s say they can close the loan, and then they get down to the final few days and they can’t close the loan… The buyer then has to go to the seller and ask to change their mortgage companies and an extension in the closing date… of which the seller may or may not agree to do.

The new OSS (on site sewer) law in King County also may be slowing some contracts down, though I am interested to hear if you have had any problems with that new law, Tim.

Personally, I have seen no buyers with cold feet… once they make the offer, they are going through with the purchases, unless they can’t come to terms on the inspection, or they can’t obtain financing.