Let’s check in on the January NWMLS statistics from around the sound.
We’re going to try something different this month. The usual collection of charts in this post tend to be a big spaghetti mess, so we’re going to keep it simple. If you want to see the usual charts, you can still download the spreadsheet (or in Excel 2003 format). Feel free to share your feedback on the new set of charts in the comments.
Here’s where the YOY stats stand for each of the six counties as of January 2009:
(Note: The “Sales” data below represents pending sales, not closed sales.)
King - Price: -12.1% | Listings: -2.4 | Sales: -5.4% | MOS: 7.8
Snohomish - Price: -14.3% | Listings: -10.1% | Sales: -7.3% | MOS: 8.5
Pierce - Price: -11.8% | Listings: -16.6% | Sales: +30.6% | MOS: 7.2
Kitsap - Price: -15.7% | Listings: -14.3% | Sales: -19.3% | MOS: 7.5
Thurston - Price: -9.8% | Listings: -15.2% | Sales: +5.4% | MOS: 5.3
Island - Price: -21.9% | Listings: -4.7% | Sales: -6.0% | MOS: 12.6
Skagit - Price: -5.4% | Listings: -4.5% | Sales: -25.0% | MOS: 12.0
Here is a visual comparison of closed sales in each county in January 2008 and January 2009:
Thurston was the only county in the Puget Sound area to see an increase in actual closed sales from 2008 to 2009. Everywhere else was down by (almost) a quarter or more.
Here’s a comparison of median prices in each county at their respective peaks and in January 2009:
It’s interesting that King County’s January median just happened to be the same as Snohomish County’s March 2007 peak median. It is also worth noting that in addition to actually posting an increase in closed sales, Thurston County has the smallest price drop so far. Overall, the total percentage drops look like a liquidating retail outlet’s going out of business sale: “Everything 10-30% Off!”
Lastly, here’s a look at “months of supply” across the Sound. Less than six is generally considered a “seller’s market,” while above six is a “buyer’s market.” Months of supply is traditionally calculated using pending sales, so in order to avoid confusion, we are sticking with that method.
King and Skagit were the only counties in which months of supply increased year-over-year. Thurston County sticks out again as the only county where MOS has dropped into “seller’s market” territory. What exactly is going on down there? Perhaps Thurston County was not as popular for debt liars and speculators, so the crash is hitting a little softer down there? Or maybe they have not experienced as many job losses as other counties in the Sound whose major industries are not funded directly by taxpayer dollars? Whatever the case, it’s certainly something worth keeping an eye on.
PublicEnemy#1 » Feb 24, 2009 at 6:32 am
Interesting about Thurston… I remember looking at homes once in Lacey thinking they were ridiculously overpriced and the agent was trying to tell me how easy the commute to Seattle was.
Umm… yeah….
I keep thinking of all those people who bought at or near the peak that are going to be living in their homes, paying a lot more than their new neighbors, for YEARS to come in Seattle.
New C/S is out…. ouch!
What the Heck » Feb 24, 2009 at 6:40 am
My understanding is that Olympia looks much better than Thurston County. County includes Horizion Point development that recently had 57 lot/properties (I think this is the number) in foreclosure. Thurston as a whole did not see the dramatic upswings that were found in King/Sno and as you pointed out, there is a higher percentage of government jobs. Would be interesting to see one of your analysis on the Thurston market in detail.
Thomas B. » Feb 24, 2009 at 8:39 am
Pierce is interesting… I was in the Graham/South Hill/Puyallup neighborhoods a couple of months ago and couldn’t help but notice all the unsold houses. The 7.2 month supply is surprising. They must have either sold a lot of houses lately, or a lot of houses were pulled off the market. Either way, I think there is something suspicious about the 7.2 months of supply number.
rose-colored-coolaid » Feb 24, 2009 at 8:56 am
Um, maybe Olympia is special and a world class city? Ergo, it’s not subject to the whims of housing crashes the way a lesser city like Seattle is.
What the Heck » Feb 24, 2009 at 9:41 am
RE: rose-colored-coolaid @ 4 –
Just trying to say that maybe Olympia will fall less because it went up less. Not immune, just not as volatile. Relax dude.
Jake » Feb 24, 2009 at 9:59 am
Anybody else wonder if the King MOS numbers are lower than they should be because it is calculated with SFH numbers only, rather than including condos/multi-family dwellings which I assume are a much larger percentage of King county’s housing stock than the others?
DaveyDave » Feb 24, 2009 at 1:06 pm
At another level of detail, here are some data on local Seattle neighborhoods I follow — Ballard (area 705), Magnolia (area 700) and Capitol Hill (area 390). This merely tracks NWMLS median SFH numbers from August ‘07 which is pretty near the peak.
Area 705: August ‘07-$494,500: January ‘09-$381,500: Percent drop: -23%
Area 700: August ‘07-$692,000: January ‘09-$550,000: Percent drop: -22%
Area 390: August ‘07-$650,000: January ‘09-$486,500: Percent drop: -25%
Just sharing what I’m tracking…
Kary L. Krismer » Feb 24, 2009 at 3:26 pm
RE: Jake @ 6 – King county is a very big county, so I wouldn’t make any such assumption.
The thing is, the comparison to January 2008 really understates the problem, because January 2008 was a relatively horrible month–until the post bailout talk months.
Kary L. Krismer » Feb 24, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Wrong thread–sorry.
Cassie Daughtrey » Feb 24, 2009 at 11:53 pm
I’m not surprised. And I’m not complaining. As a Seattle based agent, this last couple of months have been my best to date in my career. I have no complaints. This economy’s been good to me!
Kary L. Krismer » Feb 25, 2009 at 6:58 am
Tim, how hard would it be to create a chart that gives King County SFR volume data for each month, with a separate line for 2006, 2007 and 2008? If you don’t have ready access to the numbers I could give them to you. But I think that would clearly show the declines that have occurred, taking seasonality out of it because each January could be compared to the other Januarys’ data, etc.
The Tim » Feb 25, 2009 at 9:17 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11 – It sounds like you’re describing the second and third graphs on my regular NWMLS stats monthly update.
Kary L. Krismer » Feb 25, 2009 at 9:30 am
Yes, apparently I am, thanks! But perhaps that one is a case of information overload. With just the three years what is happening now with volume would be a bit more apparent.
Andy » Feb 28, 2009 at 10:33 am
Thurston is certainly holding its own…for now…those living in Thurston County are probably living in one of the last US housing bubbles to deflate.
BUT the legislature is still in session and the state budget has yet to be finalized. Just wait until state agencies start laying people off in droves in the next several months…