Let’s check in on the February NWMLS statistics from around the sound. I apologize for the tardiness of this month’s Puget Sound roundup. I’ve got something really cool in the works for this data coming up, and I mistakenly thought it would be coming this month. Next month though, watch this space for something I think you’re really going to enjoy.
I’m going to stick this month with the simple collection of charts, since nobody complained about the lack of the spaghetti mess last month. If you want to see the usual charts, you can still download the spreadsheet (or in Excel 2003 format).
Here’s where the YOY stats stand for each of the six counties as of February 2009:
(Note: The “Sales” data below represents pending sales, not closed sales.)
King - Price: -12.8% | Listings: -3.5% | Sales: -21.4% | MOS: 7.5
Snohomish - Price: -12.1% | Listings: -13.2% | Sales: -22.1% | MOS: 8.2
Pierce - Price: -7.8% | Listings: -18.6% | Sales: +1.2% | MOS: 6.9
Kitsap - Price: -9.8% | Listings: -19.1% | Sales: +11.8% | MOS: 7.0
Thurston - Price: -0.2% | Listings: -18.9% | Sales: -12.3% | MOS: 5.5
Island - Price: -22.8% | Listings: -10.4% | Sales: -6.8% | MOS: 12.9
Skagit - Price: -5.4% | Listings: -6.8% | Sales: -33.1% | MOS: 11.7
Here is a visual comparison of closed sales in each county in February 2008 and February 2009:
Actual closed sales declined across the board in the seven counties in February, by as little as 20% in Island and as much as 42% in King (ouch).
Here’s a comparison of median prices in each county at their respective peaks and in February 2009:
King County is now cheaper than Snohomish County was at the peak, while Snohomish County is rapidly approaching Pierce County’s peak. The smallest overall decline is still in Thurston County, where prices are a mere 6% off their peak values.
Lastly, here’s a look at “months of supply” across the Sound. Less than six is generally considered a “seller’s market,” while above six is a “buyer’s market.” Months of supply is traditionally calculated using pending sales, so in order to avoid confusion, we are sticking with that method.
The largest year-over-year MOS increases came in King County and Skagit County, while Pierce, Kitsap, and Island all declined year-over-year. Thurston continues to show resilience in the Months of Supply department as well. It would seem that month after month we are seeing the stats down in Thurston County stick out as the least weak of the bunch. This definitely merits some further study, to see why the unwinding is so much less intense down in Olympia.
I don’t understand why people would care about the YOY ? Most people right now only care about the bottom.. So we would only really want to see a timeline graph. We loose that information by this graph, it doesn’t help us determine where the bottom is.
Just wondering – what happens to this blog once the market does bottom-out in Seattle? At that point, its not much of a bubble, right?. http://www.seattleboom.com ? What if its a moderate climb in home prices? http://www.seattlemoderaterealestatemarket.com ?
RE: Jordo @ 1 – Good question. The answer is that the real estate market tends to be very seasonal. Most every spring, sales and prices both experience an uptick, often even in the midst of down markets. By comparing a given month to the same month the previous year, we eliminate any seasonal factors.
That said, I do still provide the download of the spreadsheet itself so you can analyze the month-to-month activity if you so desire. Also, the spiffy new feature I’ll be unveiling next month will provide even better interactivity with the data…
I think Thurston County might be on the verge of catching up with the crowd. Until now, the relative stability of government jobs has played at least some role in how that county is holding up. But, with nearly unprecedented shortfalls in the state budget, it seems likely this will not remain the case.
I expect we’ll know one way or the other by around Thanksgiving.
RE: Jordo @ 1,
In a seasonal market such as RE, it is very important to look at the YOY changes and not month to month. I know you might be interested in finding where bottom is and the right way to do it is using the YOY metric and NOT month to month.
Here’s how you can use the YOY metric to find out the bottom (in terms of prices): When prices in your area of interest show YOY changes price changes close to zero for a period of 3-6 consecutive months, you can comfortably say that we are at bottom. It is further confirmed that we are just past the bottom when the prices show a positive change in YOY prices. That would be a good time to buy if you only care about bottom hunting the prices.
In the current market we are seeing the prices are still in negative territory when compared YOY. So its wise to wait it out.
phinneydawg what happens if the dow goes to 2000 what happens if it goes to 14000 what happens if the sun doesn’t shine —- come on what is your point, I mean really you are trying to invoke a reaction nothing more
RE: what goes up must come down @ 6 –
Not trying to invoke a reaction, I’m genuinely interested. If a site is based on a condition that is temporary (and I’ll admit, the fall in prices could last quite a while), what does the future hold for such a site?
Or would this blog transition to more of a Seattle/Puget Sound real estate analysis site?
By PhinneyDawg @ 7:
Isn’t that pretty much what it already is?
Rose, I think what had been saving Thurston is that those steady, goverment jobs didn’t pay a ton, which didn’t allow buyers to throw cash around, which kept the median down (relatively).
It is odd to see Thurston now higher than both Kitsap and Island.
Positive news out today. Thought this blog could use a little ray of sunshine.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/29/foreclosure-recession-cities-forbeslife-cx_dp_1029realestate.html
By The Tim @ 8:
I guess that answers my question!
I would wonder how a transition into economic growth/rising real estate prices would affect the readership of this and other sites like it. It seems as though many people see themselves as “prophets” of the current economic/real estate downturn and pride themselves on how thrifty or responsible they were during the “good” years, and flock to this site to pat themselves on the back (and deservedly so).
My thinking has always been you can find 1000 different reasons NOT to buy a home and to rent for a lifetime (especially taken over a long period of time – say 30 years), yet, people still buy homes.
BUT, I would think that this site will always have a place for the ‘realists’ or ‘doom-and-gloomers’ (whichever way you look at it) because there will always be incredibly economically conservative people out there willing to sock away money until they’re dead.
Way off topic, but I think its pertinent if you’re looking at historical/future data in real estate on the internet.
By Novastar @ 10:
Story byline:
Housing
Real Estate Markets Most Likely To Rebound
Dorothy Pomerantz, 10.29.08, 04:00 PM EDT
thanks for stopping by. In other news, man lands on moon…
Regarding Thurston County (where I was raised as a state government brat) I would be curious to see how the unemployment numbers are tracking there in relation to King County. (are they lagging?) Like Rose mentioned, the economy down there has really been dependent on the state government.
North Central WA (Wenatchee , Leavenworth, Chelan ) has slowed down from our 2007 peak, but we really haven’t seen much in the way of depreciation yet. (Are we at the bottom or a plateau? ) Inventory has really increased, but luckily not much of it is spec houses and even less is foreclosures or short sales.
RE: deejayoh @ 12 –
Yea I am not one of your regular contributors. I am kind of a glass half full guy. Sorry for the positive spin.
By Jordo @ 1:
Tim recently did a piece on peak to current recent low for various parts of King County. But neither the graphs there or here will tell you where the bottom is.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2009/03/10/median-prices-down-over-50-in-parts-of-king/
Hey Novastar,
Thanks for stopping by and spamming with an October ‘08 story. The one about the great job market before:
- WAMU sale and headquarters elimination
- Boeing layoffs
- Microsoft layoffs
- stories about the big drops in RE expected in NYC and SEA
Nothing like a 5 month old story to make me feel like I am in the know.
RE: Geordie Romer | Leavenworth WA @ 13 – Chelan and Douglas counties are toast – not unlike my own home county of Skagit. My town, a vacation/retirement town, has a two year supply of homes. Baby boomers have lost 1/2 of their wealth. Many are flat broke. Retirees and vacationers no longer have the means nor easy money to prop up your prices. The only good news to this is that actual full-time residents may again have reasonable property taxes someday.
test
RE: rose-colored-coolaid @ 4 –
RCC – For what it’s worth, DoD (US NAVY) jobs pretty much make the entire Kitsap County economy go. If Thurston County’s stability is due to “government” jobs, the same is obviously not happening in Kitsap. .
RE: rose-colored-coolaid @ 4 –
I’ve been thinking about my response (#19). It could be Bainbridge Island is skewing stats for Kitsap. It is common opinion that Bainbridge is really a part of King County with respect to socio-economic trends. Very few of my DoD employed personal acquantances live on Bainbridge Island.
By TJ_98370 @ 20:
The difference might be Bainbridge (or federal vs. state government–although I think that would reverse the results), but I think it’s somehow related to Kitsap having some more expensive homes. Their mean dropped from 350k to 262k, while Thurston went from 290k to 270k. Parts of Kitsap County can be used to commute to King County, and our prices drove up theirs somewhat. I don’t think you can say the same thing about Thurston.
Tim, why do you use pending sales when calculating months of supply? Snohomish County would be 14.9 months instead of 8.2. The 14.9 seems to be a better indicator for me.
The cute house I like is approaching affordability – but will it be worth it to commute over the lake once the tolls come in? I’ll probably have to find something closer to where I work.
The cute house I like is fast approaching my level of affordability – but will it be worth it to commute over the lake once the tolls come in? I’ll probably have to find something closer to where I work.
The months of supply info has me hopeful though. Keep up the data!
RE: The Tim @ 3 –
Yes, but still, IF indeed the prices/values DID drop between January->Feb, it would only prove your bubble theory even more because we would expect a slight rise, so you may as well show them. If the did values NOT drop between January->Feb, it is data that is inconclusive because we can attribute it to the season. Either way, it’s something we would still want to know. Because even the statement: “prices increased slightly from Jan to Feb” implies that we cannot conclude anything, which is actually information in itself. So it is useful, and I personally, would like to see it. Not only that, I want to be able to see a long term trend, so two months isn’t sufficient. It would be awesome if every month you posted the updated home values chart with the new month added (in addition to all this type of stuff you posted today)
By Braden @ 22:
You can use either pendings or solds, but you should at least be consistent or always report both. Personally I prefer using solds because with pendings you can be counting the same property for 2-3 months.
By TJ_98370 @ 20:
BI is in no way skewing the stats, for years folks have been moving from Seattle to Port Orchard/Bremerton/Kingston to take advantage of housing, often new construction, at 25%+ of the older homes in Seattle. Of course then the bridge openend, which only encouraged it…
RE: wreckingbull @ 17 –
what town is that? I grew up in Anacortes, and I think it’s not doing well.
@4
Maybe laying off 8000 State workers will affect Thurston home prices:
http://www.theolympian.com/stateworkers/story/795080.html
[...] I apologize again for the tardiness of this regularly-scheduled set of charts. Same story as this month’s Around the Sound update—working on a cool new feature that wasn’t quite ready this [...]