Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

9 responses to “Plummetting Real Estate Excise Tax Revenue Drags on City, State”

  1. softwarengineer

    BUDGET SHORTFALLS

    You’d think with all the delicious projected uncontrolled growth in Seattle, we’d be swimming in money and jobs. Wrong.

    I beg to differ with The Tim’s optimistic prediction, that home sales will pick up in 2009. Even if they do a bit, its still dismal 2009 budget news, if the Spring/Summer 2009 sales make 2008’s warm days look like a joke. And 2008 was horrifying.

    Have you noticed the lipstick on the economy pig news likely states, “2% improvement from last month”; rather than real news? Real news: 30% drop from a year ago.

    A friend of mine works in the nursing trade and reports to me Seattle area hospitals are looking at 20% lay-offs due to elective surgery budget declines in 2009. I guess its likely that not even nurses are immune from this uncontrolled growth economic disaster we’re in. Nope, none of us are immune.

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    I typically mention this when discussing the real estate property tax–where valuations are revenue neutral. Not so with the excise tax. In King County the dollar volume for December and January months for SFR was only about 20% of the peak volume, so you’d see a similar 80% decline in excise tax for that type of property. I suspect you’d see similar declines for multi-family apartment house sales. Also, I think it was 2008 that one high rise office building sold twice. That surely generated some tax revenue.

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  3. Slumlord

    The funding reductions for local government are a big deal. They will result in noticeable cuts in public services. While I feel for the public servants who lose their jobs, I have no sympathy for the politicians whose over-spending left government without the reserves to maintain service during a slow down. I agree with softwarengineer that Tim’s prediction is optimistic. Declining REET revenues are beginning to moderate; however, fees collected for services are dropping precipitously and local governments are facing increasingly severe problems in the bond markets.

    I think that some good will come from the current economic turmoil, specifically that our society will relearn the value of maintaining a degree of self-sufficiency. With some luck, we may even end up with a new generation of politicians who will try to match their promises to the resources available. (Maybe I am just in a good mood and deluding myself because spring weather means that I will be eating fresh vegetables from the garden soon.)

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    By Slumlord @ 3:

    With some luck, we may even end up with a new generation of politicians who will try to match their promises to the resources available.

    Cue Supertramp song here . . .. ;-)

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  5. pfft

    “With some luck, we may even end up with a new generation of politicians who will try to match their promises to the resources available.”

    we need to elect better leaders then. Look at california, people got their property tax wishes but continued to elect the tax and spenders. sure your property taxes are still low for some but you’re just going to be taxed somewhere else.

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  6. Scotsman

    What we need is a national discussion on what level of economic activity should be conducted by the government as a percentage of the total. Politicians have no incentive to limit their spending under the current system. Term limits and a cap on the size of government, along with a requirement for balanced budgets are the only ways to maintain a predetermined allocation. Such limits would force both priorities and efficiencies to the forefront, a benefit for the greater good.

    No one ever brings up the idea or real cuts as an alternative. It’s always more taxes, new fees, borrowed resources from the future that get the nod. And now we have to pay.

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  7. Ray Pepper

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    I beg to differ. As an RN for over a decade and practicing just 1 night a week at a Vent unit I’m here to tell you there are more nursing jobs here then I could ever dream of. I continue to do my one day a week to stay up on my skills but on any given day I could pick up Agency work, work at any hospital, sub acute care center, or LTC facility. My wife is a nurse with Favorites and yes we have noticed more call-offs but the simple fact is she could work 100 hours a week if she wanted.

    The nurses who have not been mobile and enjoyed 1 job at a given hospital will ALWAYS feel the administrations pressures and some shifts realigned. But, for my wife and I , talk of diminished work is just coming from someone who does NOT want to step outside their nursing practice at a given facility.

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  8. The Kid

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    I’m immune. I work in booze :-)

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  9. pam

    It’s wonderful to think our public sector might shrink for lack of funding. Whatever the reason, what a tremendously good thing that would be. I am so weary of our civil service Overlords and their huge morass of bureacracy and enforcement. God, what a wonderful thought. I am loving this Depression. It’s so much more peaceful and tranquil —
    and government might even be shrinking. Life is good. Cheer up folks. None of all this is new. It’s all been going on since we knucklewalked out of the trees or whatever. I enjoy booms and busts — especially the busts. What a great life, what a fascinating world. Anyone here know how to Time travel btw?

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