Poll: How many properties are on your Redfin / Estately watch list?

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

How many properties are on your Redfin / Estately watch list?

  • <10 (38%, 40 Votes)
  • 10-25 (19%, 20 Votes)
  • 26-50 (15%, 16 Votes)
  • 51-100 (15%, 16 Votes)
  • 101+ (12%, 13 Votes)

Total Voters: 105


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 05.16.2009.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

22 comments:

  1. 1
    Ben says:

    I have more than 100 because I find a lot of stuff that I could never afford or want, but regardless would tell me something by how quickly it sells or drops in price.

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  2. 2
    David McManus says:

    51-100, and I get an email every other day telling me about a price drop. I’m not looking to buy (already own), just interested in what’s around me. Don’t we all look at a nasty car accident?

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  3. 3
    deejayoh says:

    about 15, and none of them have sold in about the last 6 months…

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  4. 4
    Everett_Tom says:

    um, lots :)

    154 active
    192 off-market

    as someone here suggested months ago, I note the price each time it changes in the notes section.

    Almost ALL of the “off-market” homes have not sold. I watch them come on as “new” homes, change price a few times and go off.

    Right now it’s more of a tool to see trends for home that
    1) Fit our lot size requirement
    2) Fit our sq footage requirement
    3) Fit our location requirements
    4) Give a feel for sold $ vs. asking $ (for homes we actually could care about).

    that fits about 80% of the homes..

    the others are one I just find interesting.., though usually WAY out of our price range.

    I watch an area from north Seattle up to Marysville, out to lake Stevens, so far this “bounce” that is talked about in pending isn’t showing at all in price/location/sq ft/lot size homes I’m watching… (e.g. I’m still just seeing price reduction, not many home “disappearing” to sales or even pending..)

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  5. 5
    BillE says:

    By Everett_Tom @ 4:

    um, lots :)

    so far this “bounce” that is talked about in pending isn’t showing at all in price/location/sq ft/lot size homes I’m watching… (e.g. I’m still just seeing price reduction, not many home “disappearing” to sales or even pending..)

    Me too. Same houses staying on the market. Most of the price reductions I see aren’t enough to matter.

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  6. 6

    RE: David McManus @ 2

    We don’t want to look, but we can’t help ourselves.

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  7. 7

    A great exercise for newer agents, and one I have taught over the years, is to pick the 3 you think will sell within 30 days (maybe 45 more appropriate right now) and note the price at which you think it will sell. Pick the ones you think will not sell until/unless they have a price change.

    We usually do this via Broker’s Open tour.

    No one can ever be right 100% of the time because you can’t be smarter than the market. 75% accuracy is the goal.

    Signing on with two different handles, one for your “will sell” list and one for your “won’t sell” list, could be of great value in honing your valuation skills.

    Not sure what to do with “will sell but won’t close” category :)

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  8. 8
    DrShort says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 7:

    A great exercise for newer agents, and one I have taught over the years, is to pick the 3 you think will sell within 30 days (maybe 45 more appropriate right now) and note the price at which you think it will sell. Pick the ones you think will not sell until/unless they have a price change.

    I do this in Redfin in the notes area for each house. I put in the current price and what I think it will sell for. I’ve been getting pretty good at it lately. If anything, I’ve been a little surprised that I guess too high – stuff selling for less than I expected.

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  9. 9
    DrShort says:

    I’ve got exactly 100 favorites with 38 active and 62 off market. These are homes priced between $500 and $850K in Seattle built before 1960. 23 of the 62 off market homes have actually sold. I had more off market homes until about a month ago when I purged some.

    The sold homes fall into two categories:

    1. Turn key homes, desirable neighborhoods, period details, and (really) nice kitchens. Old but very well kept in Queen Anne and Capitol Hill. These are selling in under 30 days when priced ok. They are still fetching a good price. I’ve seen several of these lately — there were none on the market in Nov or Dec.

    2. Deeply discounted. These come on the market at too high of price, but drop 10% every 4 weeks. Eventually, they get low enough to sell. I’ve watched several go from $799K to $749K to $715K to $675K and then they end up selling around $640.

    Only one of the sales on my list hits me as “you paid way too much” relative to the market. With the new appraisal rules, I think it’s a lot more difficult to pay more than a house is currently worth.

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  10. 10
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: Ben @ 1

    100? Good Lord!….Join a bowling League or something……

    From the Estately Home Page:

    AWESOME REALTORS

    In a down market, you need an expert who knows how to market your house, identify overpriced homes, negotiate with reluctant home sellers, and find bargains. We’ve interviewed and selected only the best local experts.

    Now my question is. How did these people qualify as experts? What made them experts? How many sold homes have these Agents conducted? How will they negotiate with “reluctant home sellers”. What is their approach to “finding bargains”. Any Red Fin Agents on there? Findwell? Shop Prop? Handspring? 500 Realty? ………….No?………………….Hmmmm. I wonder why? WHY ARE THEY AWESOME?

    Could it be just another Lead generation tool that IF YOU PAY….YOU BECOME AN EXPERT?

    Ira are you on the list? David Losh? Are you both not AWESOME?

    Fair question Tim, since it appears you PUMP this outfit. I never heard of them except for on this Blog. Educate me Tim.

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  11. 11
    The Tim says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 10 – I just think their search technology is sweet. I am neutral as to their agents, since I have never dealt with any of them.

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  12. 12
    Ray Pepper says:

    RE: The Tim @ 11

    Tim, in my opinion(which I value greatly), the Estately website…………………..ahh forget it. Just saw Star Trek. Loved it.

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  13. 13
    David Losh says:

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 10

    It’s a lead generator. Tim’s right the guy is doing a great job of providing a tool.

    You actually made me aware of the lead generator aspects of blogs and web sites. It is sad that there are so many of these sites dispensing hype with no substance.

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  14. 14
    Racket says:

    Redfins search tool> Estately.

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  15. 15
    Jonness says:

    When redfin lists a house as delisted, does this mean the listing was taken off the market? Or does this also happen when the house is sold? For instance:

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Tacoma/11530-Gravelly-Lake-Dr-SW-98499/home/2848839

    Thanks :)

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  16. 16

    RE: Jonness @ 15
    I’m not familiar with Redfin’s way of doing things, but that particular property has gone “pending feasibility” according to the NWMLS. After a feasibility study is completed, the listing will then become either just plain pending or go back to active, depending on the results of the study.

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  17. 17
    BillE says:

    I’ll have to keep a record of my guesses for which houses will/won’t sell. The only game I play now is to open Redfin and the County Assessor’s site, then guess which recent sales are foreclosures.

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  18. 18
    Ira Sacharoff says:

    “Ira are you on the list? David Losh? Are you both not AWESOME?”

    I’m totally awesome, dude. Humble as well.

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  19. 19

    I’m Galen Ward – founder of Estately.com. We are a virtual brokerage – people use our site online to find properties they are interested in and many of them work with our partner agents offline.

    @Ray Pepper #10: Estately.com is a website where people can look for homes for sale. We do not sell leads. It works just like our competitors websites: when people need an agent, we put them in touch with one of our agents. We vigorously screen our agents for experience and follow up with our clients to ensure that our agents are doing a fantastic job. We are not a non-profit. Like you, Redfin and others, we DO intend to make money from our website and we do believe we offer a valuable service.

    You make a very good point though: our copy is pretty bad. We could do a much better job describing why our agents are fantastic.

    @Racket #14: I know we can improve Estately.com – we have a long list of improvements we’re working on. We have recently been swamped tackling scaling and back office challenges, but I promise we’ll get back to making search better soon. Please let me know if there are any specific features you are interested in.

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  20. 20
    Jonness says:

    Ira:

    Thanks for looking that up for me. I was looking at the house on Saturday, and a guy came by and seemed a little perturbed I might want to buy it. He said he had been having a hard time pulling the trigger due to all the work it needed. I tried to let him know I wasn’t very interested in it, but I think he thought I was BSing, so he bought it. Truthfully, I had no interest in the place at all.

    He he, there’s nothing like a little friendly competition to get those bank loans for high dollars signed. The land was awsome though. I think it will be a good future investment for the guy if the feasibility study works out.

    As for me, I’m still saving a downpayment and waiting for the foreclosures to heat up a little more and put some additional pressure on prices. I notice there is quite a bit of activity in the Gravelly Lake area. I looked at an interesting foreclosure on the lake in the $500K range that’s generating a fare amount of traffic (tax assessed at $850K). It’s a big house with a lot of land and a nice dock. Tacoma appears to be leading the way down. I expect things to get worse over the course of the next year. Then it might be a great time to buy. I need to save a bigger downpayment, so it’s pretty easy for me to wait. Other fence sitters seem to be jumping in perhaps a bit early. I tend to remind myself if things fall another 10% on a $500K home, I’ll lose $50K if I buy too early. That’s easy to dismiss if you are paying a low downpayment, but the effort of actually saving up 20% or more makes it a little tougher to dismiss $50K as unimportant to the future.

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  21. 21
    David Losh says:

    RE: Galen @ Estately @ 19

    The first search I did lacked some of the houses for sale in the area, but the map showed east and west correctly. The second search showed east as west and also lacked some on market listings.

    I am by the way awesome also.

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  22. 22

    RE: David Losh @ 21 – Great feedback. We only show the most recent 100 listings on the map (you have to click “next 100″ to see more) and that trips folks up. We could definitely improve this!

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