I have seen the houses. They are here to make money. That’s their function.

i’ve been called worse

You are a "licking" troll just like others say.

I mentioned 3 years you "licking" imbecile

[comment by editor: filter avoidance may result in deleted comments]

Wow all billionaires.

I had to IMDB 1/2 of them.

The foreclosure process is not very difficult to understand.

After about three to six months of missed payments, the lender orders a trustee to record a Notice of Default (NOD).

These NOD should show up on foreclosure.com or usa-foreclosure.com or other public locations after 1 year (I’m giving it 6 month margin).

Are you disagreeing with this assertion?

If you tab back up…you’ll notice that it was you that asked me to provide proof to my statement regarding banks sitting on high dollar defaults and not recording them for years.

I did.

You then claimed it wasn’t a high end neighborhood.

LOL

All I’m saying is that it’s mighty interesting seeing multi-million dollar defaults that went unreported for 3 years.

I’m just now realizing that neg-AM loans were issued as high as 2.7 million from what I’ve seen.

Compton is irrelevant.

sounds like we shouldn’t draw comparisons to our provincial high end neighborhoods to LA then.

anyway, there wasn’t a single area in this bubble fiasco that could compare to say Compton, where the median went from $150K to $500K in heartbeat.

Compton for Christ’s sake!

Not many foreign investors in the hood unless you want to include consulates from Japan, Korea, Canada and Turkey….but they’ve all been here for a long time and probably aren’t selling.

Using zip codes here doesn’t work as well as it does in Seattle. Hancock Park is comprised of 3 zipcodes. I’d compare it to the better parts of Laurelhurst. Homes are generally 4-6,000 sf on 1/2 acre lots. There are a few outliers however…both larger and smaller.

It’s harder to compare it to the Eastside/MI as the homes are much older in Hancock Park. It has always been full of Hollywood A-listers due to it’s proximity to Paramount. Go a mile any direction and it’s a different world.

Honestly…I was pretty surprised to see the amount of HELOCing going on down here.

T he zip codes for MI, Medina, and Laurelhurst if you care 98040 (~$1M median at peak), 98039 (~$1.5M median at peak), and 98105 (Laurelhurst is just part of this zip, but probably 2X other parts of 98105) .

I have witnessed first hand people, mostly foreign investors, making bad decisions at the peak in these zip codes too. So they are not immune.

If I can generalize, the vast majority of the people in those zip codes, are long time residents with family ties to those locations. Not alot of relocation compared to say zip code 98006.

I am quite impressed with that list of names. I am just asking for comparisons to comparable valued zip codes. We are talking MI, Medina, Laurelhurst to what in LA?

Ken Griffey Jr. lived in Issaquah Highlands when we had stars in this provincial neck of the woods. His $2M home was a bad investment.

Ichiro is taking a bath on his home in Issaquah too.

Glad you don’t think the neighborhood is high end.

Here’s a short list of the people that think differently than you.

David Schwimmer
Marta Kaufman
John Mills
Sean Hayes
Anne Heche
Beck Hansen

There are many, many more.

You think 90020 is a high end neighborhood?

The median price in that zip code was $475K at the peak per Zillow. LA as a whole was $600K at the peak.

No wonder those people are in trouble, buying homes 5x or 6x the median price of the zip code.

I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO happy that I please you with my silence.

I guess I’ll wait 3 years and see what happens to MI, Medina, Laurelhurst. Right now, the foreclosures in those areas are less than 0.1% of the housing stock.

No Jon, there is nothing wrong with the data. I’ve already researched it.

I’m just showing you the tip of the iceberg also.

Enjoy.

Oh…and I LOOOOOOVE how the waitingforseattletocool is sooooo quiet.

Lot Size: 18,000 Total Sqft.: 4,116 Taxable Value: $3,017,160 Year Built: 1949 Last Sale Date: 02/01/2005 Last Sale Price: $1,700,000

Foreclosure Information
Recording Date: 03-17-2009 Default Amount: $1,360,000 Default Date: 02-01-2005 Transfer Date: 05-30-2006

There is something wrong with this data. In the other two, the default amount is greater than the last sale price. I suspect the default date is actually the date those were last refinanced.

Pretty interesting that they wait 3 years to issue an official NOD. I’m not surprised however.

I have 3 examples waiting for Tim to retrieve them from the spam bucket.

Be patient….it’s his B-Day.

Happy B-Day Tim.

RE: EconE @ 73 –

Were do you find information regarding NOD�s issued now were defaulted on the loans about 3 years ago? Seems like a claim that is worth some justification.

Foreclosure.com

_________________________________________________

301 s Windsor L.A. CA 90020

Lot Size: 18,000 Total Sqft.: 7,565 Taxable Value: $3,453,699 Year Built: 1983 Last Sale Date: 10/05/2004 Last Sale Price: $2,100,000

Foreclosure Information
Recording Date: 04-22-2009 Transfer Value: $2,100,000 Default Amount: $2,160,000 Default Date: 03-29-2006 Transfer Date: 10-05-2004

__________________________________________________

400 S. Rossmore L.A. CA 90020

Lot Size: 15,399 Total Sqft.: 6,146 Taxable Value: $3,448,925 Year Built: 1920 Last Sale Date: 02/25/1997 Last Sale Price: $705,000

Foreclosure Information
Recording Date: 03-24-2009 Default Amount: $2,730,000 Default Date: 09-01-2006 Transfer Date: 12-22-2005

__________________________________________________

304 S Plymouth L.A. CA 90020

Lot Size: 18,000 Total Sqft.: 4,116 Taxable Value: $3,017,160 Year Built: 1949 Last Sale Date: 02/01/2005 Last Sale Price: $1,700,000

Foreclosure Information
Recording Date: 03-17-2009 Default Amount: $1,360,000 Default Date: 02-01-2005 Transfer Date: 05-30-2006

TONS MORE!

You should start reading the Irvine Housing Blog.

Cheers!

yes, it will be a difficult few years for some.

Were do you find information regarding NOD’s issued now were defaulted on the loans about 3 years ago? Seems like a claim that is worth some justification.

Your point earlier was that there is more educated people in india and asia? Thats why I asked you to elaborate with some stats just for curiosity sakes.

Pahahah

Ask 10 asian people at microsoft where they would rather live. Once they answer here, ask them if they still would with a 50% pay cut.

People from other countries seem to want to live here more than people from our own country.’

Broke in India is way different than being broke in the USA.

“There are a billion consumers in China alone. ”

No, there is a billion people in China, there are probably 100 million “consumers” most of china is still very dirt poor.

Sorry, but you know for a fact that the only people who would condescend to come to the United States are the expendable. No one from Asia will lower themselves to come here unless it’s for the money. Microsoft has a much better chance of recruitment to off shore locations.

Exactly the point. The market for technology is broader based than what you see walking around on the Microsoft campus. There are a billion consumers in China alone.

Technology is a garage based business. It’s people working together in groups to come up with solutions. The great thing about technology is that any one can have the ability. It’s very much a math thing.

In order for technology to advance it will need to move off shore. More people will need to be involved and engaged. Limiting technology to the people who can jump through the United States hoops will stiffle innovation.

No, not every one can get a Visa. Only the game players get Visas, that’s the game.

Give it time.

All the NOD’s that are popping up down here (Los Angeles) recently in the high-end markets defaulted on the loans about 3 years ago. Funny how the banks are just now getting around to issuing the NOD’s.

Keep smoking the hopium.

I see the same, not much is selling in those areas.

From my thousand foot view of those areas, a 6 month supply of homes would indicate some price appreciation, where the broader market would be neutral.

Those foreclosure numbers seem to be very standard for those areas.

That being said, not much is selling in those neighborhoods, but quite a bit is still being built.

According to http://www.usa-foreclusure.com:

Mercer Island has 6 properties in some state of foreclosure.
Medina has 5 properties (4 active, 1 cancelled) in some state of foreclosure.
Laurelhurst has 1 property in some state of foreclosure.

I am not saying there is no downward price pressure in those areas, but the level of foreclosure activity hardly indicates any level of stress presently.

You cannot look at national price hikes and say city X will see the same rate of growth or drop as city Y.

Seattle isn’t immune to price drops, but it grew tremendously over the past 20 years which a lot of the price increases were caused by the growth. Those increases will not go away until we shrink.

The reason Amazon makes the cut is because they had lower level workers walking off with half a million in stock options. I remember reading in the Seattle Times about a warehouse clerk who’s options were more than my net worth at the time. That kind of money helped push home prices up. You’re right- they don’t haver that kind of impact now, but back in the day they were major players.

Thanks Racket – the answer was going to take longer than I wanted to write. Also wanted to add that we shoul look at all the American corps with Indian CEOs who are NOT moving key roles to India.

The quality of indian labor is not better it is just cheaper.

Why does everyone keep talking about Amazon. Amazon is not that big of a player in our economy They have roughly 4,000 employees in Seattle. I don’t think they even ship anything from this state ( I have never received a package from washington from amazon).

Costco has more employees than that.

The founders of both Amazon and Costco, are tied closely to the Seattle area. Until these companies get taken over their operations will stay here.

Amazon could be operated from the burbs, but they are having a office building built down in the south lake union area. They could have bought land in a million different areas for less, but they are committed to this area so they choose to be there.

As far as Microsoft going to India, is absolutely crazy. India has a small handfull of very well educated people. If you walk the MS campus you will probably see about 20% or less of their employees being asian, or indian. And I know very well the Microsoft gets about everybody they want into this country.,

Oh…and the REIC shlubs that berated every renter telling them to get better paying and 2nd jobs in order to “afford” a house.

Perhaps we should take that stance when dealing with homeowners having trouble with their mortgages.

I’d be willing to bet that over the next year, we will see a plethora of supposedly well-to-do homeowners…or should I say…loanowners that borrowed heavily against their homes, storming in here to tell us how special Medina, Madison Park, Laurelhurst, Kirkland (98033), Mercer Island blah blah blah. We will have long since forgotten about places like…ehem….Ballard. It’s gonna be the million$+ asking price crowd…the ones that “need to sell”.

I’ll bet there were just as many “fat cats” up in Seattle borrowing against their homes in Seattle as Los Angeles. Call it human nature. It’s too bad that you can’t look up mortgages as easily up there as we can down here.

You guys have Boeing, MS and Amazon. BFD. We’ve got celebrities.

Just as I’m seeing down here, the banks will methodically pick these “rich folk” out and squeeze them for every penny they have. I’ll bet that the banks will pursue judicial foreclosures also so they can then squeeze them for the rest of their lives. They know which turnips “bleed”.

This party’s just getting started.

Thanks for your work in presenting this info!

Given.

Credit covered the wage deficiencies. Low interest made it all seem affordable. I have said for years low interest rates have nothing to do with property value.

The smart people, educatd people, are in India and Asia. Those families send the children here to get a Degree from a United States University and have Visa documents for the US. There is no illusion that the children actually get an education here, they come to have credentials from the United States.

We also pay huge amounts of money here that go a long way in the country of origin.

Eventually Microsoft will need to move Reasearch and Development probably to India because of the English language. Many extremely talented people will be barred from the United States on a bunch of technicalities. It will just makes sense for Microsoft to move. I think they already are a Deleware Corporation.

I agree that it’s up for debate and far from exact science.

I am neither a realtor nor a bottom caller, but I am a home owner, so I guess I have a bias.

The premise of this particular thread was meant as a long term question of RE appreciation vs. inflation. Someone wanted to add a 2% appreciation per year line to one of the charts The Tim posted and I took issue with that.

The leading posts of the thread seemed to indicate real estate MUST track inflation.

Interesting and original take on things- kudos. While the definition of exactly what is under the curves is somewhat open, the idea that we have borrowed from the future is spot on. And that has to have an effect going forward, most likely as you say some sort of over correction.

The only comment to add is that companies with ‘knowledge workers’, such as MSFT, AMZN, need to be attractive to smart people (try putting MSFT in Houston or Memphis or Oklahoma City and see how well you recruit those MIT kids). The tax structure is part of it but the metro area is what retains talent. It’s why NYC attracts so many despite wages that while high are ridiculously low compared to cost of living. WA state and King Cty in particular, while hostile to mfg, know that SEA is attractive to a certain profile because of its culture. It’s absurdly elitist, but it still works.

Apologize to all who have heard this before

I’m bullish on MSFT but the facts are that Seattle isthe #4 destination on the West Coast (LA, SF, SD) and is currently 20% more expensive than SD and close to par with LA. That financial relationship will not stay that way – Seattle will fall back to 4th because its geography and climate are not as attractive to as much of the population in the US and worldwide than LA, SD or SF.

Seattle counts on migration, primarily from CA, to drive population growth.

You didn’t think that prices went up the last 5 years because everyone who was already here decide to pay more for homes, do you?

So today’s reality – aside from the fact that no one in Seattle is moving up right now (no equity gains with which to do so), no one from Cali is escaping the sunshine with bags full of money to buy a bigger house here. In fact, I know more than a few who are wondering why they should stay (including tech people returning to SF). Little population growth means very little reason for prices to go up.

And that’s not even considering – layoffs, tightening credit (how many people have the 20% down payment for last year’s median price in King County AND are willing to do so right now), the building glut of condos.

If you think big metro area real estate is local, you must be a realtor (no offense intended Kary) trying to push the “bottom already happened” BS.

There is nothing screaming bottom. But there sure are alot of indicators pointing the other way.

I don’t see how Washington state, or King County, or the city of Seattle are working to create a pro-business environment. Boeing has already figured this out, and moved it headquarters and much of its manufacturing to other areas. Ms invests mostly in people, and uses a lot of real estate to contain them. But they can easily pick up and move should they desire. Truth be told, Amazon would be better located closer to centralized shipping hubs.

I don’t think anything is a certainty, but I look at these organizations as a businessman, not a real estate booster. And from my perspective the incentives to keep them here reduce to no more than momentum and the status quo. Cheaper labor, more political consideration, lower taxes, all exist elsewhere. Additionally, as I look at the way they are positioned in their respective industries I don’t see where the big growth opportunities, similar to those that underpinned last decade’s housing boom, exist. Add in the context of a national or world-wide recession/depression, and I’m not a housing booster. But I appreciate your taking the other side- divergent opinions make a market.