No, most of those former high $ position holders are just running on credit cards and limited savings, not getting re-employed in lower wage jobs.

The Kid

RE: jon @ 5 – It’s actually a bit more dire than that. For the unemployment rate to stop rising new hires have to not only match new claims but EXCEED them to account for population growth. So the net number has to be significantly positive for the labor market to truly stabilize.

I think you missed the author’s point, which was that there is a statistical link between the peak in claims and the end of the recession, not the peak in the unemployment rate. so it is essentially the first derivative of the unemployment rate, not the rate itself that is the signal.

but I agree with you that housing still hasn’t bottomed. Perhaps in some markets, but not as a whole. And we are going to see slow growth at best coming out of this.

Funny, most of the people I have met lately that are doing it are real estate agents.

Obama is promising jobs. What will those jobs look like?

My concern is that Clinton used the Census for his welfare to work program. Is this Obama pledge another political trick?

After the census public works dollars will be distributed based on the need of a district. The pork will grow fat for some and leaner for other Congressional districts.

The debate we’ve been having, and which I feel extremely passionate about, is government jobs. I think our tax dollars would be better spent on a Universal Health Care system, alternate energy sources, and education, all of which can create government jobs. Other people disagree and think our American Corporations should continue to provide social welfare. Either way we all pay.

I think Dave has been using the Census workers to illustrate the point that the jobs that are being created are not only government jobs, but temporary jobs…what happens when they are gone?

I suspect that the bartenders have some competition for that “extra-pay” job this time around.

Losh with his medication swings has been talking about census numbers for months. I think the total number of census workers is nothing compared to the losses in other sectors. Census workers are mainly part time bartenders getting extra money.

………..Tax ………..Federal…….GNP…….Unemp.
Year…..Receipts….Spending….Growth…..Rate
—————————————————————
1929………?……………….?……………..?……..3.2% Depression begins
1930……..4.2%………….3.4%……..- 9.4%……..8.7
1931…….3.7………………4.3………..- 8.5…….15.9
1932…….2.9………………7.0………..-13.4…….23.6
1933…….3.5………………8.1………..- 2.1……..24.9 New Deal begins
1934…….4.9………………10.8………+ 7.7……..21.7
1935…….5.3………………9.3………..+ 8.1……..20.1
1936…….5.1………………10.6………+14.1…….16.9
1937…….6.2………………8.7………..+ 5.0……..14.3 recession begins, May
1938…….7.7………………7.8…………- 4.5……..19.0 recession ends, June
1939…….7.2………………10.4……….+ 7.9……..17.2

LOL. Good stuff.

How many people found new work at much lower wages?

How many ex-(Insert high $ occupation here) are now counted as “employed” just by working as a census worker for a limited time?

When those part time census worker jobs are finished, will those workers be counted as newly unemployed again or are UE benefits exhausted at that point where they become part of U6 and not U3?

I’m not contesting anything said so far…just curious.

WRT whatever the NBER says…don’t care…we’ve redefined inflation and unemployment over the years…they’ll define things however they see fit as far as I am concerned.

Peak unemployment lags the economic bottom, and peak foreclosures lag peak unemployment. Although technically we could start seeing GDP slowly climbing at any time, house prices will continue to see pressure and could stunt the $12.5 trillion green shoots.

The census is the largest mobilization of man power outside of war time. The census has already started hiring. That will continue through 2010.

This recession will drag on. The debt alone will take years or decades to pay down. That will be a first step. Next we need real production. We will need tangible results to solve some large global issues.

Of course the author of the post is a Duck, which makes it suspect no matter what!

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/05/can-unemployment-claims-predict-the-end-of-the-american-recession.html

Total unemployment will continue to rise as long as new claims exceed new hires. When those two have balanced is when overall unemployment will start to fall.

If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge I can sell ya. I and most economists predict more and more degradation of job opportunities through 2010. Just because the job degradation slows a small bit per month means as much as termites eating your house a bit slower now; even VP Biden agrees with me.

Without about 1 yr of significant job creation bigger than degradation will give us a slim hope of recovery; assuming the commercial RE loans don’t destroy the banks worse than the subprimes ever did, before that happens. And believe me, that’s a “BIG IF”.

If one uses the statistical analysis provided by shawdow stats, we’re already in a depression:

http://www.debtorsprisonblog.org/journal/2009/5/27/shadow-government-statistics.html

As NBER defines the question, a positive turn up in the tracked data would be seen as the end. But stepping back to view the greater picture, it’s clear there’s much more economic pain to come. I don’t think their methodology does a very good job of capturing that. And the press will just report the claim that a recession has “ended.”

On the other hand, much seems to be failing faster than expected, so they may not get the temporary small bump up they need to call the end of a cycle. But I voted “yes.”