http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?GroupID=202461955&ListingID=32350279

This condo is in Lincoln Square, which is still the best condo in downtown Bellevue. This was a plush unit located on the 33rd floor with a SE view (Mt. Rainier). This is a better condo than 99% of what is available out there and it just sold for $880,000, which comes out to be about $488/sqft.

That says that most of the units in Bellevue Towers is still grossly overpriced and needs to come down 30% to 40%.

I agree that a concrete and steel building down town is an excellent purchase. Here in Seattle you could never count on appreciation, but many people live in a unit for life or after retirement.

oh,
I owned/lived in the seaboard building condos downtown at 4th and pike, and the construction was incredibly robust ( better than most houses ive seen), I never heard a single noise or neighbor…ever.

The best thing about high rise condo is that you don’t get much noise from above or below, most of the noise is from the same floor.

Bellevue of all places (the trader vics shut down, OH NO) when for 4-5k a month you could literally be living on the lake. That is just rank greed, and I hope they all cry their way into the poorhouse.

‘
Where can you live on the lake ( Washinton for $4-5K a month besides maybe the southend near boeing? It’s really loud on the southend of the lake.

Ownership isn’t really ownership when you’re tethered to a large gang of others with speculative agendas.

Also known as the city, state, and federal governments.

Good call, that. Those of us who’ve been around a while (most of us, probably) will remember when condos appreciated LAST, and were first to decline. Many years ago when I was in the market, a condo was all we could afford, but we went to buy it while holding our noses (and actually ended up moving to a lower-cost area, instead).

I’m curious as to what you think the fundamental differences between the U.S. and Japan are and why you think it will result in a 5 year downturn instead of a 15 year downturn.

I do agree there are differences (e.g. U.S. has little manufacturing, exports, or savings), but they aren’t very positive ones and in the key area of how we are handling the credit bubble collapse, we seem to be following exactly in Japan’s footsteps (i.e. paper over each crisis one at a time so that investors won’t know what will blow up next).

I also saw some red flags in the Lumen financials, and heard rumors that the current $0.63/sf monthly dues are going up. to maybe $0.63/sf next year. The concept of large special assessments also looms large – but that may be for smaller, poorly-managed complexes.

The Tim,

You never stop paying for a house either. I have been a condo owner in the past and a homeowner now and it’s always something. We could create a list a mile long.

See Kary’s comments (#10) above. KEY difference is one of control. I own my house (well, owe less than $75K on it now), and I’m looking forward to the day when I “only” have to pay the fixed monthly cost of KC property taxes (my “rent”, if you will). If I decide that I can live with the 1970s popcorn ceilings, or the single-pane aluminum windows, then it doesn’t cost me a cent to “fix” these items. I have full control on when and how much I choose to spend. Not so much in a condo unit. I know of one person who lives in a condo in Redmond that was forced into moving out for several months while major exterior and roofing repairs were done that resulted in a mandatory $100K+ assessment PER UNIT! Ouch! No thank you . . .

On my own home, I chose to “extend” the life of the original roof by several years, with a few hours’ worth of my time and two 5-gallon buckets of black goo from Home Despot (not that I recommend doing this, BTW!). But the point being, it was my own choice and I happen to like that freedom.

That’s my thought for the day,

Darby

You never stop paying for a house either. I have been a condo owner in the past and a homeowner now and it’s always something. We could create a list a mile long.

In contrast, with a house anytime you go to Lowes you can end up with a $300 bill–especially stuff for the yard. Of course, most of that is optional.

The problem is you don’t control the timing or the decisions regarding those items (I’d highly recommend becoming part of the board), and your finances are tied up with those of others (which is something that will probably play out more in the next couple of years than any other time in our history–at least locally).

There are some very nice condo complexes that I’ve seen. But there are also others that are horrible. I wrote a piece on the latter a few months ago: http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/152734.asp (Don’t Let Your Condo Complex Turn Into a Dump).

I grew up in apartments. I like high rise condos. If the listing you linked was a 2 bedroom with a decent view, I would seriously consider buying it.

If you were to buy the cheapest Bellevue Towers listing on Estately, you’d be paying ~$2,660 a month on principal + interest (generously assuming 20% down), plus ~$890 in property tax (based on 1.78% of a $600k assessed value), plus $817 a month in dues for a total payment (excluding insurance) of $4,367!

Even once you fully pay off your mortgage, your payment will only decrease by about 60%, still leaving you with a monthly obligation of $1,707. In reality it will be even more than that, since over the life of the loan your property tax will go up and the monthly dues are likely to go up as well. Even if you assume just 2% yearly growth in property taxes and association dues, at the end of your 30-year mortgage, your payment will still be over $3,000.

…Sounds to me like developers feel there is an inexhaustible supply of suckers round these parts. That scares me. I am a fan of the overall economic outlook and statistics subscribed to on this website, but I think there is no accounting for the “X” factor that is mass ignorance…

I couldn’t agree more. I’m constantly amazed by how many people still think that I should snatch up a house before I get priced out. One thing I’ve learned about Seattlites since I moved here is that they LOVE bidding wars.

I pretty much think that condos are the new mobile home parks. As soon as you buy one you lose significant value, especially in suburban areas. I have been tracking a certain development that my wife liked. They originally sold in 2006 to 2007. There have only been a handful of resales and they range from 15 to 30% below original price. Not to mention the ones I see for rent on craigslist that can not possibly cover mortgage and association fees.

“We look at the underlying fundamentals and see a different picture than those that have been scared off by the national trends,” John Midby said. “It doesn’t match the psychology that’s pervasive in the market, even in Seattle.”

What psychology might he be speaking of? Sounds to me like developers feel there is an inexhaustible supply of suckers round these parts. That scares me. I am a fan of the overall economic outlook and statistics subscribed to on this website, but I think there is no accounting for the “X” factor that is mass ignorance. There is way too much money focused in too few powerful hands in the Seattle area. I think that will make this downturn long, slow and painful if it happens at all. Rant complete. End of line.

“Some observers have maintained that sales will pick up soon because savvy buyers will recognize supply is limited. After the current crop, few, if any, additional new condo projects in downtown Seattle or downtown Bellevue are scheduled for completion before 2012.”

Who are these observers? Isn’t all supply limited? Wouldn’t a savvy buyer realize that value will be set by the differences between the limited supply and limited demand?

There’s a book on the Best Sellers List called “Common Sense”; I’d encourage everyone to read it, even us bubble brains need to prime up on it too, lest we get tempted to join the dark side.

Some folks in the RE industry would sell their soul for a sale, apparently.