Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.
In the last year, your personal net worth has...
- Increased. (49%, 101 Votes)
- Decreased. (39%, 81 Votes)
- Stayed about the same. (12%, 25 Votes)
Total Voters: 206
This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 07.25.2009.
Mike2 » Jul 19, 2009 at 10:51 am
Clicking on the Vote link is giving me a JavaScript error in both IE7 and FF3.
Softwarengineer » Jul 19, 2009 at 11:09 am
TIM, IF YOU’D WORDED THE POLL: “IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS” RESULTS WOULD BE DIFFERENT
We all know stocks nosedived 40% [to about an average 2009 8000] since the DOW high of 14000 a year ago; albeit in 2009, its sort of flatlined at approx 8000 since.
House price wealth loss in 2009 for Seattle is about 10%; but if you’re not in bad debt and you didn’t get recently [like the last 10 years] swindled into the max house you could possibly afford [I'd say 50% of what you qualified for was a perfect sized loan in the 2000s], the 10% you lost on your RE this year could of been made up [if you're frugal] by saving cash into your cash can [especially if you got completely out of debt] recently.
Bottom line, your 2009 wealth is dependent upon how much RE you bought in the 2000s and your ability to balance the 2009 RE wealth loss is how much debt you’re not in.
Groundhogday » Jul 19, 2009 at 11:47 am
Last 12 months would be the same as 2009 for me. No equities in my retirement plan (got out in 2007), no home ownership. But just about everyone I know has been hit hard with the double whammy of home debtorship and bad 401k dollar-cost-averaging advice.
Scott Weitz » Jul 19, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I’m surprised this number is so high.
What have been some of the strategies?
Personally, I stayed away from RE, and have been fortunate trading the market and investing in a couple hedge funds that weathered the storm well.
If nothing else, this poll shows the investment accumen of Sea Bubble readers.
Softwarengineer » Jul 19, 2009 at 1:22 pm
RE: Mike2 @ 1 –
I AGREE MIKE
The 401Ks may be tax deferred, but in stocks they were a total joke the last 12 months.
The only way to beat the stock market bullet was matching funds [I did invest in stocks partially mixed with money markets and bonds too that way]; at least your half of the stock invested cash can money is still there….but once you hit the max on matching funds, I left retirement investing [I call it money you withdraw after you're dead...LOL] and went to just taxable cash can accounts, the income on investment interest is so low now-a-days, what difference does it make? To put Johnny’s college money in a tax credit account [ask an accountant, it may be these tax deferred accounts reduce your potential social security too] may be a good decision, albeit there goes your college tuition tax write-off too…LOL
singliac » Jul 19, 2009 at 3:15 pm
RE: Groundhogday @ 3 –
For somebody like me with a 40 year horizon before retirement, I don’t think that dollar-cost-averaging advice was bad. I know a lot of people who stopped contributing after stocks started free-falling. Now they are used to that extra income, I bet that they won’t start contributing until stocks start rising again. Even though everybody know “buy low, sell high,” not many people actually do it. I increased my contributions right after the market started to tank. If the market drops again, maybe I’ll even start contributing more. It may turn out that I’m wrong, and I’ve wasted a lot of money, but I doubt it.
PlainTiff » Jul 19, 2009 at 4:31 pm
My retirement is about 30 years away, and I could care less what the stocks are worth now or a year ago. I am buying shares in the economies, both domestic and foreign. I am buying ownership. I am absolutely sure that in the long run, equities is the only thing that can give me the returns I need – there is simply nothing else that can make the compounding magic work for me. Notice that I am not saying it WILL, I am saying it CAN – God knows how it will all end up. But for other types of investments, there is simply no hope whatsoever.
deejayoh » Jul 19, 2009 at 5:07 pm
All major indexes are down 20-25% since last July, yet 56% of respondents on this blog made money!
I suspect this is a question that elicits answers with the bias in the same way as “did you make money on your trip to Vegas” or “are you a better than average driver”
I’m sure people here are doing better than average but most comments seem to be about staying in cash. That doesn’t make you much money
David Losh » Jul 19, 2009 at 5:45 pm
RE: deejayoh @ 8 -
I didn’t vote but our cleaning business has had a 20% growth this past year. That 20% is in addition to regaining some of the clients we lost last year. Our inquiries on line are above where they were two years ago. We get 2 or 3 requests for estimates from on our website per week. That’s a good conversion.
Now for the but…… Our losses are in the hundreds of thousands since 2006. We’re not the only ones. I have this conversation with a lot of the people I do business with. There are a few that have had steady business growth. But…… the discussion usually come around to sustainability of business.
We take all clients that are a reasonable return on our time. A custom builder is taking on a client whose wife may become unemployed during the project. Many people have taken on part time work for other companies to feed their business during this “recession.” It is kind of like Vegas. You hedge your bets where you can but….
Lamont » Jul 19, 2009 at 5:48 pm
“I’m sure people here are doing better than average but most comments seem to be about staying in cash. That doesn’t make you much money”
It makes you more money than just losing it does.
And now is the time to be putting that money to work. I’m looking for a 50% retracement back down to the March lows and I’ll start to increase my positions.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 19, 2009 at 5:56 pm
By deejayoh @ 8:
Said they made money. There is a difference between poll results and reality.
David Losh » Jul 19, 2009 at 6:33 pm
RE: Lamont @ 10 –
Funny!
People make money in the stock market by investing in global investment strategies. People give money to huge financial institutions who are promising you huge profits. Huge profits have been the bragging rights to owning stocks. It was the same for Real Estate for a while.
The cocktail party, water cooler stories of huge profits are what people had to feel important.
When you invest in the global markets you should understand that in many of those market places profits are low. The goal of most companies, world wide, is to survive and make a living.
We are in for at least a decade of working businesses. No one is going to let you get rich on their dime any longer. The American Way of doing business just took a massive credibility hit.
TJ_98370 » Jul 19, 2009 at 6:38 pm
nj
TJ_98370 » Jul 19, 2009 at 6:47 pm
RE: deejayoh @ 8 –
I think there is a distinction between “making money” and “increase in net worth”. My increase in net worth is due to savings. My investments are pretty close to breaking even right now.
Sniggy » Jul 19, 2009 at 6:57 pm
I switched to Geico, so I’m really not sure where I am at.
jon » Jul 19, 2009 at 7:16 pm
By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:
Given the results from the poll on peak monthly closings for 2009, it is safe to say that the majority of readers here are bears. Bears should have done well over the last 12 months. The last 4 months, not so much.
TJ_98370 » Jul 19, 2009 at 7:20 pm
By Sniggy @ 15:
Too funny!
Scotsman » Jul 19, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Increased, but only because current income has gone to paying off all debt, not consumption, and some asset sales returned more than expected as we continue to pursue cash.
mr.finviz » Jul 19, 2009 at 11:40 pm
Most of the readers here will not be home owners so it’s likely that their net worth would have either increased or stayed the same. If you are a home owner and you said your net worth increased it’s likely that you are fooling yourself.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 20, 2009 at 2:37 am
RE: jon @ 16 – Just having been a bear wouldn’t increase income–you’d need to act on it. For example, I was bearish on Boeing when it was over 95, but I didn’t act on it.
Lamont » Jul 20, 2009 at 8:46 am
“The last 4 months, not so much.”
You mean when I turned my 401(k) contributions back to buying aggressive funds in order to dollar-cost-average through the bottom, and put about 30% of the cash in my trading account to work on stocks (which all just about immediately popped 80%)?
I did poorly last week since near the neckline of the much-touted H&S formation, I went short to protect my long positions and missed all the upside in the whipsaw. But that’s life…
Scott Weitz » Jul 20, 2009 at 8:54 am
For anyone that would like to have the same answer next year…I would highly recommend buying Goldman Sachs puts with an expiration of at least 6 months….Unless you think the worst in behind us.
GS has benefitted from govt bailouts, a 10 billion under the radar payout from AIG that was essentially a bailout , repeal of mark to market, and arguable some market manipulation from March to June. There is no way they continue on the pace that they are on given that all their income was from trading and bailouts.
Groundhogday » Jul 20, 2009 at 10:16 am
RE: singliac @ 6 –
From someone retiring now, they would have been better off investing in treasuries for the past 30 years than dollar cost averaging stock index funds. Not sure about 40 years, but don’t be too sure about those great gains. Stock dividends used to be much higher than comparable interest rates (to compensate for greater risk), now they are much lower in general. Stocks used to be a good investment in the 50’s and 60’s when few people were invested in equities, but with the mass movement into 401k equities and mutual funds, stocks just aren’t a very good buy based upon fundamentals. Look at current P/E ratios and the current market isn’t a screaming deal despite the massive correction that we just experienced.
As long as people believe that you “can’t lose” with long-run dollar-cost averaging, then the market will be overbought.
Groundhogday » Jul 20, 2009 at 10:31 am
By jon @ 16:
As a bear I’ve done fine over the past 4 months. My money is in (1) Retirement guaranteed treasury fund (3.75%); (2) TIPS (roughly neutral); (3) laddered CD’s (2.5-5.5%). More importantly, we spend considerably less than we make every month, so our savings grow… building equity the old fashioned way. Perhaps I’m not a bear so much as a conservative investor.
Matsayswhat » Jul 20, 2009 at 10:38 am
By Scotsman @ 18:
Same here.
The poll asks if your net worth has increased, and anything positive counts as an increase (even .01% :) ) Would my increase have been better if the economy was doing well and housing prices were up? Yeah, but something is better than nothing :)
jon » Jul 20, 2009 at 11:48 am
By Groundhogday @ 23:
The annualized rate of return on the S&P 500 over the past 30 years, with dividends, is 10.76%.
Over 40 years it is 9.10%.
20 years 7.68%.
10 years -1.80%
source: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/12/sp-500-at-your-fingertips.html
cm » Jul 20, 2009 at 11:48 am
Matsayswhat @ 25 even .01 is an increase
I think .01 would better fit under the catagory of “Stayed about the same”
Matsayswhat » Jul 20, 2009 at 2:12 pm
By cm @ 27:
Good point. I’ve got to stop commenting before I drink my morning coffee.
Notorious ART » Jul 20, 2009 at 3:13 pm
RE: Scott Weitz @ 22 – Agreed, the GS party has to end sometime soon. Good strategy, puts will limit your loss if you’re wrong.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 20, 2009 at 5:12 pm
RE: cm @ 27 – Unless maybe you’re Bill Gates. At some point .01% becomes a meaningful number–at least to those of us reading the poll results.
NoMoreWork » Jul 21, 2009 at 8:02 am
RE: deejayoh @ 8 – That may be true for several people, but why even anwser the poll if you’re only going to lie? My net worth has more than tripled but that is more of a function of my young age and of my income representing more than just a fraction of what my net worth was. For someone in their mid 40s, market fluctuations affect net worth more than personal income as income is only a small fraction of net worth. Some people may be lying but let’s not go around accusing the majority :)
truthtold » Jul 21, 2009 at 9:22 am
amusing…so very many silly lies in a forum intended to dispel or at least not propagate blather. Perhaps that was the question’s intent?
Groundhogday » Jul 21, 2009 at 10:24 am
By truthtold @ 32:
Why do you assume this? Participants in this blog are obviously self-selected and hardly representative of society at large. We have been screaming about the sky falling for several years now, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising if folks here were generally protected from the crash.
TJ_98370 » Jul 21, 2009 at 10:28 am
By TJ_98370 @ 14:
.
In the interest of reducing “blather”, I need to rephrase, now that I made actual calculations:
.
My investments are down 6.4% from this time last year (up 1.5% since last March). However, my overall net worth is up 4.2% from this time last year, mostly due to savings accumulation.
.
deejayoh » Jul 21, 2009 at 11:01 am
By NoMoreWork @ 31:
I just pointed out that the results seem inconsist with the known facts. Not accusing anyone of anything.
I suspect what TJ says is the case for many. I know I went into moslty cash in early 2007 and have accumulated considerable savings based on my choice to rent in the interim. But the little money I left in the market is down 20%, just like everyone else. Mostly 401k so I figure let it ride.
From the comments I don’t get the sense there are too many active traders here – at least not people minting coin by shorting stocks. There were a few but they moved over to the ticker guy forums a long time ago.
aerojd » Jul 21, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Most of my net worth is in my house and in my 401K plan. Even though I have kept the 401K somewhat conservatively positioned in about 1/3 cash, it took a big hit in ‘08. Between the house value and the 401K, my net worth is down. Haven’t calculated how much, guessing 10-20%. But it’s all paper money at this point, as retirement is 20 years away min., and we plan on staying in the house for a while.
iBear » Jul 21, 2009 at 10:01 pm
My house value in Seattle has increased since I bought it last year. I guess I’m one of the few.
Herman » Jul 21, 2009 at 10:37 pm
RE: iBear @ 37 – That’s because you found a GEM. Thanks to your savvy, you bought your house for a great price, well below market. Now you could sell it and people will pay full price. Well done.
Marquis De La Loins » Jul 21, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I am posting to tell you that I’m a brilliant investor, making lots of money.
Puts upside MACR short APPL whipsaw margin options laddered yields.
truthtold » Jul 22, 2009 at 8:57 am
#39: let’s drink kryptonite together…I too am a marvel.
softwarengineer » Jul 22, 2009 at 9:21 am
PART OF THIS BLOG SERIES REMINDS ME OF THOSE CHRISTMAS CARD BOILER PLATE LETTERS WE GET
They always leave out the husband’s visit to the doctor about that blotch of possible skin cancer [and his company is on the verge of bankruptcy], or the fact that the transmission repair on her 2007 just cost $5000 with no warranty [and its monthly payment is $800/mo], and they just lost $2000 at the casino this year, their two college kids both have $100K college loans to pay off that mom and dad co-signed [and both haven't got job offers yet, so have moved back home], etc, etc….
It will tell you that Johnny and Mary just graduated from college with honors and should each get $120K/yr jobs very soon now, and will likely buy their own $500K homes this year with their windfalls…
It will tell you that the husband is in good spirits and expects a 20% raise next year when they make him VP of operations.
It will tell you that they’ve got plans to visit Atlantic City to make more casino windfalls on their error-proof gambling “system”.
etc, etc, etc….blah, blah, blah…
I have friends that see those Chritmas Card form letters and immediately throw them all in the trash, unread…LOL
Scott Weitz » Jul 22, 2009 at 9:32 am
Ibear- I’d like to hear your story…where did you buy, and at how big of discount?
marquis De la Loins @ 39-
You can do the same things. Its not about being brilliant….its about wanting to take control of your own destiny, rather than leave it in the hands of the suits in NY.