By Kary L. Krismer @ 19:

RE: meme @ 18 – Well first, the forum here is Seattle Bubble, so what’s it matter what the nationwide price change was?

Second, how would someone buy a nationwide house? They have to pick a market. I’m sure there are a few markets that hardly changed at all.

So have Seattle prices really gone up 100% in the last 13 years, while nationwide, prices have only gone up 40%?

If that is so, that is strong evidence that seattle property values are going to go way, way down from here.

Some houses in Detroit are down 75% so does that mean we are going to fall to their level?

Brilliant!

Best of lick!

what I know is that with this digital photograph people are paying 2004 and 2005 prices today for properties. Even with the information on the web people are paying too much for property.

We were talking in 1996 terms.

RE: meme @ 18 – Well first, the forum here is Seattle Bubble, so what’s it matter what the nationwide price change was?

Second, how would someone buy a nationwide house? They have to pick a market. I’m sure there are a few markets that hardly changed at all.

So have Seattle prices really gone up 100% in the last 13 years, while nationwide, prices have only gone up 40%?

If that is so, that is strong evidence that seattle property values are going to go way, way down from here.

Second, how would someone buy a nationwide house? They have to pick a market. I’m sure there are a few markets that hardly changed at all.

With hindsight, the advice to buy in a sellers’ market in 1996 wasn’t too bad of advice. ;-)

The median for July, 1996 was $170,700. Even ignoring the effects of leverage on the calculation, you could have easily doubled your money in less than 10 years.

Nationwide, the median single family home price was $121,900 in May of 1996. By May of 2009, it was $172,900.

That’s an increase of 40%, pretty much about the amount of inflation in that time.

Real Estate is a snap shot in time. You need some one who can develop the picture clearly.

Most folks take digital photos these days which don’t need to be ‘developed’.

Seriously,

Every body knows so much about Real estate that even today, with all of the information on the web, people would buy a house on Queen Anne for $199K and think they were making a good purchase.

This book was written by the same person who writes blogs. The information was good in the day, today is different, and tomorrow will be different again.

Real Estate is a snap shot in time. You need some one who can develop the picture clearly.

Never ask an agent if now a good time to buy. If the market is going up the answer will be buy now because the price will go up. If the market is going down the answer will be prices are down now is a great time to buy. You know the rest.

How Do You Know When the Market Turns Around?

It’s easy to tell. You can simply read the real estate articles in your local newspaper.
…
Or you can make contact with a real estate broker, announce that you want to wait until the market gets better, and ask for a call when there’s a turnaround.

Priceless comedy right there.

At the time this may have been good information for people who were not Real Estate Savvy.

How Do You Know When the Market Turns Around?

It’s easy to tell. You can simply read the real estate articles in your local newspaper.
…
Or you can make contact with a real estate broker, announce that you want to wait until the market gets better, and ask for a call when there’s a turnaround.

Priceless comedy right there.

The book though does seem to treat buying a home more as an investment than of one made for personal reasons. That’s part of what got us into the situation we got into.

Yep. Interesting from an historical perspective to see that thinking published in 1996. It suggests that the psychology necessary to create a massive real estate asset bubble was in place long before the bubble actually occurred.

Does it also have tips and traps? They might have more literal meaning in this context.

I just ordered 2 books…See, Kary…We always learn something from Seattle Bubble. Tim just keeps giving and giving..

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Didn’t Cramer say something almost identical to that? Year might have been week or month, but I seem to recall him saying almost the same thing.

It makes more sense with stocks than houses because of liquidity and transaction costs.

The median for July, 1996 was $170,700. Even ignoring the effects of leverage on the calculation, you could have easily doubled your money in less than 10 years.

The book though does seem to treat buying a home more as an investment than of one made for personal reasons. That’s part of what got us into the situation we got into.

The world has changed a lot since then.