Just kidding. I started reading SB years ago, when we were thinking we might move back to Seattle. You were a voice of reason confirming what I was thinking: that Seattle real estate was whacked. When we did move back a year ago, it was SB that gave me the confidence to NOT buy, despite lots of peer pressure to do so.

I think more info for sellers would be good. So many are clinging to the bubble, listening to RE cheerleaders tell them the recovery is around the corner, and shooting themselves in the foot by pricing poorly and then following the market down. Specific examples comparing outcomes for properties that are priced well and properties that are not. Something like that that makes it concrete.

I don’t think you need to start diluting the site with general info that can be found anywhere (how to buy a house, how to choose a realtor). Keep it Seattle-area specific. In any case, keep up the good work!

Sniglet’s the cheeze-wiz.

Why thank you… I am honoured to be thought of as comparable to one of America’s great consumer products, that resulted from the capitalist spirit to make a buck, rather than an expensive (stuck-up) Euro invention tailored to the elite.

In any event, I have really appreciated Seattlebubble for providing such a great forum for wide ranging discussions about both housing and the economy. I don’t think you can really talk about housing without getting into macro-economics. As much as there may be some truth to the adage that “all real-estate is local”, what happens in the broader economy clearly has a major impact.

About a week ago I posted a forum about the value of Real Estate blogs. After reading the Rain City Guide the past few weeks with it’s new format, I really question the information people think they are getting in a blogging for business web site.

What’s the format matter? The printed words are still the same.

That site undergoes more unnecessary revisions than just about any site I can think of.

Debates is kind of a random term. On a blog there are lurkers who never engage. They may think that the theory of deflation is completely wacky and never say anything. Maybe they make a comment and go away. Those are the people my comment was directed at. No matter what you think about the theory the information is what makes this blog different, and in my opinion better than other Real Estate blogs.

About a week ago I posted a forum about the value of Real Estate blogs. After reading the Rain City Guide the past few weeks with it’s new format, I really question the information people think they are getting in a blogging for business web site.

No mediocrity when it comes to being on the extreme side of things.

Whether right or wrong, using your own brain is much better than mindlessly parroting the mainstream consensus.

Sniglet’s predictions were big picture thinking and brought to light many extremely important points. However, we are now witnessing the effects of massive govt. spending hitting the economy; thus, the parrots believe we are on the verge of a massive upward V in the economy. And that’s funny, because, despite the massive free money the govt is flooding into the economy, consumer spending went negative in July, and that’s 70% of the economy.

The fun and games are far from over. When you borrow money you don’t have in order to live beyond your means, you feel rich–right up until you have to pay it back.

By Slumlord @ 77:

<Compare, for example, New Kensington (western PA) to Sultan (Snohomish County). Both towns are roughly the same size and equally decrepit. A house in New Ken might sell for $20,000 and the same house would be $140,000 in Sultan. If the cost of public services in each place were $2,000 per year, the tax rates would be 10% and 1.4%, respectively, yet the cost is the same.

Not quite. Yes they do determine the tax rate here by determining the government revenue budgeted, and then dividing by the total value of all assessments, but that doesn’t mean that they do it as a per situs (???) calculation in that manner. Also, while levies, fire district and other items can raise the total rate, the state is limited to 1% of the assessed value of a property.

But I suspect what the person moving here meant is that their taxes are higher in absolute dollars. There are a lot of states that have higher real estate taxes than WA, and some of those states even have income and sales taxes on top of that.

You’re right Kary, I meant the amount, not the percent. As a more concrete example, our 2 bedroom, 2 & half bath townhome, 2 car garage, approx 1200 sqft, built in 1985 here in PA is assessed at just under 100k, and our total property taxes are approximately $2600. I compare that to a townhome in Edmonds with 2 bedroom, 2 & half bath, 1 car garage, 1270 sqft, built in 1985, assessed at 231K with a property tax bill of approx $1900.

In Pennsylvania, the tax rates are not “revenue neutral,” as they seem to be in Washington. That is, the rates don’t adjust as the property values rise or fall.. they stay the same until the school district and/or county change them. Although there are some limits on what the counties may charge, the school boards here are free to raise the rates yearly, without putting it to a vote by levy.

Our county (Allegheny) recently had a big problem with assessments due to this system. They weren’t keeping up with them on a regular basis, so new owners were taxed at purchase price, and older residents were being taxed at older, lower assessed values. When they finally got around to reassessing everyone, there was major sticker shock, particularly for elderly folks who hadn’t been reassessed for decades. The county tried to change the assessment process to use a base year, but the whole thing went to court and they were told they must use recent assessments. They’re still trying to figure out how to fix it. I think the Washington system seems much more stable, and much more sane.

And yes, we also have 1.5% city income tax, a 3.07% state income tax, and a 7% sales tax.

http://www.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/~/media/Assessor/News/jan312008/2008_Rate_Distribution.ashx

And here it is broken down even more (starting at page 8):

http://www.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/~/media/Assessor/PropertyTaxes/RateBook09.ashx

Congrats on surviving what looks like a merciless round of attrition for Seattle-area real estate bloggers. Love the site and wouldn’t change much about it, although if anything I’d go the opposite route some other posters have been suggesting, and open it up with possibly more than one post per day: invite guest contributors, maybe start a once-a-week feature where a regular reader (Scotsman? Kary? deejayoh?) can start a thread rather than waiting to hurl their slings and arrows.

One other thing I might like (although I recognize that this sort of granularity is difficult to achieve) is some sort of neighborhood coding system, superimposed upon ZIP codes, that takes into account differentiation between neighborhoods or developments within a ZIP code. A few examples: right now “Greenlake” refers to all manner of communities arrayed around the lake, whether they straddle Aurora or not; “West Seattle” includes both sound-view properties and some not so family-friendly neighborhoods; “Bellevue” is so vague as to defy meaningful analysis. Maybe this isn’t the right place to push for that, but I’ve found this site so informative in other respects, and know I’m not the only person who would find that useful.

<Compare, for example, New Kensington (western PA) to Sultan (Snohomish County). Both towns are roughly the same size and equally decrepit. A house in New Ken might sell for $20,000 and the same house would be $140,000 in Sultan. If the cost of public services in each place were $2,000 per year, the tax rates would be 10% and 1.4%, respectively, yet the cost is the same.

Not quite. Yes they do determine the tax rate here by determining the government revenue budgeted, and then dividing by the total value of all assessments, but that doesn’t mean that they do it as a per situs (???) calculation in that manner. Also, while levies, fire district and other items can raise the total rate, the state is limited to 1% of the assessed value of a property.

But I suspect what the person moving here meant is that their taxes are higher in absolute dollars. There are a lot of states that have higher real estate taxes than WA, and some of those states even have income and sales taxes on top of that.

What people refer to as “property tax” is really a lumped together jumble of many different taxes. There is less variability in things like the cost of schools than in house prices. What this means is that if your house costs only half as much, you will need to pay twice the tax rate to provide the same income stream to local government. Home prices in western PA are less, but many people pay roughly the same in taxes.

Compare, for example, New Kensington (western PA) to Sultan (Snohomish County). Both towns are roughly the same size and equally decrepit. A house in New Ken might sell for $20,000 and the same house would be $140,000 in Sultan. If the cost of public services in each place were $2,000 per year, the tax rates would be 10% and 1.4%, respectively, yet the cost is the same.

I’d love to see you get some really good interviews with some of the large real estate, mortgage, title, and appraisal company owners. The interviews we read in the mainstream media are soft-ball questions and soundbites. I’d like to see how they answer the tough questions you ask in your SB blog posts. Maybe you could give us a list of the people you’d like to interview and those of us with industry connections can pull some strings for you.

RE: The Tim @ 68 – The rule is true Colin, but many times realtors have no problem with other realtors advertising thier listings. I mean why would a realtor mind?

Some agents view their listings as being proprietary, but it goes beyond that.

I allow “Internet” advertising of my listings, which basically means other brokers like Redfin, JLS, Windermere, etc. can display them on their sites. I don’t allow other agents to advertise my listings on Craigslist or in magazines, etc. Those tend to be aimed more at an agent getting a buyer than actually selling a property (which is why I also don’t generally allow other agents to hold open houses on my listings).

Because any comments about another agent’s listings are considered advertising. I’m sure an agent wouldn’t mind if I listed his listings as a featured home on my website, but I’m not sure he’d be amenable to having his listing described as ” an overpriced piece of dookey, seemingly made out of cardboard.”

Most likely whatever MLS Jim the Realtor is a part of does not have a similar rule.

new houses suck no matter where you live. i wouldn’t buy a home built after 1965. Granted, some of the old homes haven’t been maintained and are crap, but they were built much better by skilled labor. Most homes built today are meant to last 30 yrs because they use shoddy materials and unskilled labor. When the caulk gun is the most important tool the builder has, then you know there’s a problem.

Thanks for clarification re listing agent.

That would be awesome if you have some link that compares the tax rates in different cities. From looking at houses on Redfin, I’ve noticed property taxes out there seem to be much lower than ours (western PA). The property tax we currently pay on our home would be the same as a house three times the price out there. Here, property taxes vary quite a bit, depending on the county and school district.

I’m thankful we have SB plugging away and it will be interesting to see if the PI replaces Aubrey. Perhaps they’re assuming SREP can fill Aubrey’s shoes.

I doubt that’s what they’re thinking.

The article today was a bit disappointing.

I’m thankful we have SB plugging away and it will be interesting to see if the PI replaces Aubrey. Perhaps they’re assuming SREP can fill Aubrey’s shoes.

1) I’d like to see more in-depth reviews of specific neighborhoods, like Hinton @ 10 recommended. Maybe some articles comparing the performances of different school districts (often a big factor in where people choose to live, and subsequently a factor in housing costs), comparing tax rates (if they differ from community to community.. not sure about how it works out there), comparing traffic/ferry/public transportation issues, how much new construction vs. old construction, etc.

2) It would be useful for me to see more in-depth breakdowns for Snohomish county, similar to those that you do for King County. We are probably going to end up there, for a variety of reasons, and it would be useful for me to have more data on that area.

These are just some suggestions. You’re doing a great job and I enjoy reading your site.

Both guys created controversy, lot’s of it.

In blogging it’s content and controversy that keeps a site moving. Both of these guys have brilliant points of view. They also represented fringe thinking when they started and now they are closer to main stream.

You have to admit sniglet still gets piled on for deflationist theory. He is though one of the main commenters who adds a credibility to the discussion.

Now think about the irony of Eulea and sniglet being the credibility of this web site.

The extent of what happened though, Eleua was way off on that–at least so far. The game is not over yet.

By David Losh @ 11:

The eula (sp?) and sniglet guys may be completely out of thier minds, I really have no opinion about that, but it’s the discussion that has moved your site, in my opinion, to a forefront.

I have the greatest respect for these guys and don’t like to see them slandered. IMO, their insights and ideas are/were nothing short of brilliant.

What happens when you go out on a limb is one of two things.

1. You are a genius if you are right.
2. You are a idiot if you are wrong.

No mediocrity when it comes to being on the extreme side of things.

RE: Crashcadia @ 42 – I could get Tim in front of at least two of the bigger developers of WA. If he was willing to sign an NDA, submit a list of questions, and have them revised or ommited. :)

What kind of journalist is going to the terms of a NDA???

NDA’s are for people who you are paying to report on your business, or people you pay to work for you.

We need to find Eleua and bring him back for a few more guest posts. On the subject of sarcasm, I say keep it up. If we can’t laugh at the absurdity of the last four years, we will cry thinking about the permanent damage this bubble has done to our country.

I was sort of surprised how he was attacked the last time he was here.

The eula (sp?) and sniglet guys may be completely out of thier minds, I really have no opinion about that, but it’s the discussion that has moved your site, in my opinion, to a forefront.

I have the greatest respect for these guys and don’t like to see them slandered. IMO, their insights and ideas are/were nothing short of brilliant.

I agree. Let him know that he is missed.

Eleua

It would be nice to have greater insight into these projects and others. I know that you have featured the stalled projects, but I would like more information on what the plans are for these stalled/failed projects. How about a few interviews with these developers?

Also, guest bloggers like SCrow are great to give industry perspective from the inside. Like others said, lets hear from inspectors, etc.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SoLNMo2IJXI/AAAAAAAAGFA/RJayj8zI3pM/s1600-h/SacramentoDistressedJuly2009.jpg

I+ Real Estate service provider reviews. Most people don’t know how to pick a real estate agent, mortgage broker, or inspector. There are few resources available to make an informed decision. I’d like people to post reviews of their experiences with specifics of commissions paid, what services they provided, etc.. Make this for mortgage brokers, agents, and inspectors.
.

The problem with these type of reviews is the people don’t know what they should be looking for. I’ve given examples in the past where clients’ offers were turned down just because their agent didn’t know what they were doing. Presumably those potential buyers had no idea. Another was from my attorney days, where a client thought her divorce attorney was great and the husband’s horrible, when really it was reversed. The client’s divorce attorney was an idiot.

There might be some basic questions that might be useful. For example, was your closing date extended because your mortgage broker didn’t have documents ready on time? If the answer to that is yes, that could be a bad sign, depending on when that happened (Oct 2007 I’d probably give them a pass).