Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

21 responses to “Tim on the Radio Today (for real this time)”

  1. ray pepper

    I’ll be listening Tim. I listened the other day as well and no TIM…………

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  2. Buford

    I will be listening from Central Wa via internet.

    After moving from Bothell to Moses Lake, I really miss the radio programming available in the Puget Sound region.

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  3. Indy

    Hey, I just found out that the awesome California-listings site is about to launch in Washington state (along with Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon). That will be a great additional tool for data analysis and real estate professionals.

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  4. ray pepper

    Did you hear that Ira……Tim and his wife are stepping it up this winter in their search for a home. Looks like Claim Jumper is on you…..Hurry up Tim! …Bring on the Claimjumper Pretzels!

    BTW Tim you sounded great.

    Hes not taking any calls on real estate after that segment? Instead the topic is why democrats are losing ground……………………..COME ON!!!

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  5. Scott Weitz

    Nice job, Tim.

    Are you really looking at buying?!

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  6. voight-kampff

    …and cue the agents clamoring for tims upcoming purchase ,
    imagine that on your resume ” I sold THE tim a house ” :-)

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  7. cutienoua

    RE: The Tim @ 7 – Hi,
    When you say uncommon,does that means will be a bunker?

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  8. ray pepper

    RE: voight-kampff @ 6

    Tim, needs a good Agent. One that will help him decide.

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  9. David Losh

    You did great today. I’m always impressed by how you remain even keeled. The guy took a couple of shots, in a nice way, to get off course, but you got out all of the important talking points.

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  10. Buford

    You actually SOUND like a reasonable guy.

    I have to ask, how do you record the streaming audio?

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  11. The Other Ben

    Haha. “Even people calling for 80% drops…*laugh*”

    Sniglet, called out.

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  12. Pierce Anon

    Good work! I agree with Mr. Losh that the interviewer tried to get in some cheap shots, like when he asked you if you were employed. I was disappointed that the segment didn’t go longer, but that’s talk radio for you, never allowing time for in-depth analysis.

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  13. Buford

    RE: Pierce Anon @ 14
    I don’t think it’s a cheap shot to ask if your employed.
    Just finding out the facts and possible motivations.

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  14. Buford

    RE: The Tim @ 13
    I have Audacity and I couldn’t make it work for streaming. I’ll have to try again.

    I’m trying the free Orbit downloader too.

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  15. kfhoz

    Nice job, you do sound good.

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  16. rationalistguy

    Historical analysis is good for getting some baseline but Tim’s assumption (at least he implied) that prices of houses will go back to historical ratios is flawed. These are some of the reasons which I believe that house prices will fall far below historical ratios.

    1) You have boomers retiring instead of growing population. This means decreased demand for housing.
    2) Houses are the only asset that most of these boomers have. They have to sell or downsize to afford their retirement.
    3) 70% of US economy is consumption based. U.S consumers are overleveraged and there will be no easy home equity due to rising home prices to support. This will cause corporate profits (stock markets to fall), GDP, and income to fall. This will negatively impact housing.
    4) Land is not scarce in US. Replacement cost for the house is $100-$150 per sq. ft and prices in lot of areas are still way above this proce.
    5) Loans will not be easy to get and that will restrain prices. Economy was booming and people were overleveraging in 90’s and de-leveraging will have same effect but in reverse.
    It would be interesting to know what other people think.

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  17. Markor

    I listened to it… Well done Tim.

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  18. Scott Weitz

    RE: rationalistguy @ 18


    The only strong argument I can see for price appreciation would be a result of the massive printing of money. That said, my personal take is that it pales in comparison to the contraction of credit that is underway…we’re still in a deflationary environment for assets.

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  19. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Scott Weitz @ 20 – Frapachinos (sp?) just went up in price! ;-)

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