Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.
"American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Agree (15%, 23 Votes)
- Disagree (85%, 127 Votes)
Total Voters: 150
This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 08.29.2009.
ray pepper » Aug 23, 2009 at 7:10 am
“America will Never be the Same”
2500 shopping centers to close and with all the vacant buildings I see in my travels its hard to suggest American business is coming back. Interesting to watch the CNBC ticker go by and see BAC at 4.92 and many other stocks tripling since this broadcast.
However, as many analysts suggest, we have entered a “Lost Decade” of financial prosperity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nD5l6ttYSSg
Kary L. Krismer » Aug 23, 2009 at 7:21 am
On the commercial property thing, the banks really need to just start refinancing their own loans as they come due, provided of course they’re current. But banks seldom do what makes sense, so I wouldn’t want to be the owner of one of these things having a loan coming due in the next two years.
TheHulk » Aug 23, 2009 at 9:00 am
To paraphrase CalculatedRisk, “the cliff diving is over”. American business dove steep and hard (it needed to mind you after that credit binge) and I am guessing we are somewhere near a bottom.
I see some problems with anything normal –
1. As pointed out by numerous folks, this is the third “jobless” recovery in a row. If business doesn’t start employing people, who is going to purchase their products and lead to real sustainable growth, not end-of-cliff-diving-treading-water-growth?
2. Tim, please define for me “a normal level of prosperity”. All I have seen over the last few years are unsustainable bubbles (the dot com boom-crash and now the real estate/financial boom-crash).
Don’t you worry too much about businesses though. As seen last month they saw a 6% productivity gain (without an increase in hiring mind you). They will wring out more and more from the same people until there is no more blood or sweat to suck out.
David Losh » Aug 23, 2009 at 11:08 am
This is an odd sort of thing when you talk about prosperity. Many people think of a bar be que with the family on Saturday after a long work week that is paying the bills, other people think of an Aruba vacation. Then we have the people who now think in the billions of dollars who have to be rich in order to prosper. Lastly there are the people whose family wealth looks as though it will last for generations to come.
Prosperity is a subjective thing.
What I know is a segment of the population, a majority in my opinion, are walking zombies who are true believers. Prosperity has meant going to University, getting a good job, or profession, having an investment portfolio, and sleeping well at night. They take a two or three week vacation or travel. All is good and beautiful in the home. The kids have active social schedules. The children are preparing for the challenges of the future having fun while learning.
I think a lot of people think of that as normal, and it will come back.
What will also happen is a lot of business people will take advantage of todays circumstances and over shoot prosperity. Fortunes will be made in the most unlikely sectors. You see, the great thing about zombies is that once you head them in one direction they will just stay the course. You don’t have to think about them. For them their prosperity will always be there. They are make it happen kind of people, the go getters.
The poor or middle class however, the ones who are struggling, the ones who lost everything in the Bush years, as they will be known, will rise up. It’s unavoidable. The Scotsman talking about food riots is way out there, but it will be a revolution, a revolt. Again fortunes will be made.
So I agree that the status quo will be reestablished for the majority of Americans and they will be left behind. The very rich and the very poor will be the big winners.
Buford » Aug 23, 2009 at 11:28 am
“American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity”
Who made this claim?
Did I miss it from a previous post?
Buford » Aug 23, 2009 at 11:35 am
“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
softwarengineer » Aug 23, 2009 at 12:46 pm
How the Bubble Bloggers have changed over the years
I remember coming to this blog a few years ago and if I talked major recession looming I was scoffed as an extremist and wild eyed loon by at least half the bloggers…LOL
I won’t mention handles, but some of my strongest foes back then talk more on economic imbalance and bad news reporting than I do now…LOL
But God bless all us bloggers, because there’s nothing wrong with changing your opinion with new facts; there’s something terribly wrong though if you purposely ignore pragmatic reality. Believe me, you bloggers have changed me too, many times….keep up the good work :-)
Scotsman » Aug 23, 2009 at 12:50 pm
The Seattle Times has a pretty decent piece on this in today’s paper:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jontalton/2009716089_biztaltoncol23.html
“Unlike previous recessions, layoffs are a small sliver of unemployment compared with permanent job eliminations. This points to deep changes going on in the U.S. economy”
The comments should be interesting..
“
Jonness » Aug 23, 2009 at 6:33 pm
If the American consumer resumes spending, it’s over. If not, it’s not over. Unfortunately, the American consumer can’t spend at anywhere near previous levels because we are still in the midst of a massive credit contraction. Cheap easy credit is necessary to regaining consumption. The problem is, the Fed lending rate is near 0%, and Joe America is still not spending.
In order for things to be like they were, Americans must pay down their current debt, jobs must return, and the banks must resume lending to consumers with low to moderate FICO scores (credit = consumer cash). I don’t see this occurring in the near term.
We hear about all this good news in the economy, and it supposedly means we are coming out of the recession. But for the real state of affairs, I point you to the Cash For Clunkers program. It boosted auto sales way beyond expectations. Talk about green shoots for the auto industry. Unfortunately, the program ends on Monday, and then we’re going to see how healthy the auto industry really is and just how much good temporary stimulus does for supporting long term growth.
So goes the economic stimulus package.
Matsayswhat » Aug 24, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Just to clarify, is this question defining “normal” as prebubble growth?
If so I have to think on it a bit more… I don’t think I agree, but don’t know that I completely disagree.