Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

31 responses to “Cheapest Seattle Homes: September Edition”

  1. softwarengineer

    You do good work Tim, have fun at the PAX

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  2. Acerun

    NERD!!!!! :)

    Sorry back tot he subject. …

    These houses are cheap by Seattle standards, but who in their right mind would want to live in theses areas?

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  3. DrShort

    I’d be interesting to look at what homes you could get in other parts of the country for the same price as Seattle’s lowest priced homes. I think $120K can buy a pretty nice place in the south and mid west.

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: DrShort @ 4 – Well, for that price you could probably buy a fairly nice house in El Paso too. But you’d be living in one of the worst places I’ve ever been to in the country.

    On that topic, however, I did have a friend who got a job in Kalamazoo (sp?) who was moving to San Fransisco several years ago, and he complained that even if they had their house in Kalamazoo paid off, that wouldn’t be a 10% down payment in SF.

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  5. mukoh

    9345 7th Ave S.

    Tim I think this one the mega talented sellers representtive “agent” put lot sq ft as house sq ft and vise versa.

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  6. Urban Artist

    That is true who would want to live in those areas. Plus even at those prices I would not consider those houses to be a good value. I have been wondering why it is taking so long for this area to reset and houses start to be priced more realistic to incomes. Rentals are even priced crazy. Does everyone make six figure plus incomes. Most of our friends do not and we are well educated types. According to the post about Short sales it seems that the banks are still trying to keep things inflated as long as possible.

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  7. Buford

    By DrShort @ 4:

    I’d be interesting to look at what homes you could get in other parts of the country for the same price as Seattle’s lowest priced homes. I think $120K can buy a pretty nice place in the south and mid west.

    How about 3 hours east of Seattle. You can have a brand new 3 bd on 10000 sq ft lot.
    Not quite 120K but close.
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Soap-Lake/46-Evergreen-St-S-98851/home/16863726

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  8. AMS

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5 – I was back in Michigan last year, and I pulled out the “average selling prices” of various cities on the West Coast and showed them to some friends. It really does not matter what “average” I used, as they are all about the same when contrasted to Michigan prices, especially if you compare to the $500-$1000 homes within the city limits of Detroit.

    Many of the people I showed the prices to had no idea of how high the prices were. At the time the unemployment rate was probably ‘only’ 10% to 12%–much lower than it is today in Michigan. I had all kinds of questions asked, “How do people afford it?” “How can a place like that be worth that much?” “What justifies these prices?” I write a little like Mish here, who makes these types of observations quite frequently.

    I have never quite understood the very large differences in home values from one market to the next. Yes, I know about the Winters in Michigan, but does that justify paying double, or more, in SF?

    As far as Federal Income Taxes, the residents along the I-5 corridor not only pay more in housing, but there is an increased income tax load associated with the higher housing cost, yet the Federal minimum wage is the same for all states.

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  9. Mike2

    Nice that the “probably short sale” has what appears to be a 50″ panasonic plasma in the living room. Maybe they’ll throw that in to sweaten the deal.

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  10. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Buford @ 8

    And Soap Lake is actually a cool town, has the healing , silky, mineral lake waters, purplish coulees in the background, a run down western style downtown, and an annual Greek festival…And houses for next to nothing, compared to Seattle. Some of the older homes have lake water piped into the bathrooms so you can take a hot mineral bath in your own bathroom.

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  11. Acerun

    I’m moving to Kalamazoo!

    http://www.bellsbeer.com/index.php/home

    Best brewery in the Midwest!

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  12. Urban Artist

    The problem with a lot of other places in the country is not just the unemployment the wages are a lot less. My Father and sister live in Tucson and prices have come down quite a bit but the wages are way less. Even large well known companies pay less there. So I would guess that the ability for someone to afford a house in those places are about the same. In order for that to work you would have to have a good paying job you could work from anywhere.

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  13. AMS

    RE: Urban Artist @ 13 -

    I guess we could say that the minimum wage in Washington is higher than the Federal minimum. But does that justify an average home costing over $400k? Is the median/average wages that much different?

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  14. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: AMS @ 14 – I would agree minimum wage has little to do with it. Few if any people anywhere earning only the minimum wage are in the housing market–at least by themselves.

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  15. Kary L. Krismer

    Looking at Census data (which I don’t want to link with Tim gone–spam filters) the highest 3 year median is almost 66k, and the lowest just over 36k. Washington is #11 and California #13. Note, however, these are statewide numbers, not numbers for major population centers. I believe San Francisco is well above Seattle.

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  16. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Acerun @ 12

    I’ll drink to that, and , if we’re looking for the regions with the best breweries with the lowest housing costs, have a Southern Pecan Brown Ale, from Kiln, Mississippi, on me:

    http://www.lazymagnolia.com/

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  17. Indy

    I say “Cheapest Homes by Square foot” should be adjusted to exclude certain “anomalies”

    1. 9345 7th Ave. S – mukoh@6 is right – the house size and lot size have been (accidentally?) swapped – it is actually $177/sqft and it doesn’t count.

    2. 5926 S Eastwood – Um, I’m not sure what happened here, but according to Redfin, it was “Sold” only 3 weeks ago at $285,000 (already 25% down from the 2006 peak sale price) and is now listed nearly 30% less at $205,000 with this in the description, “Earn sweat equity in this fixer-upper! … FHA/VA may require Rehab loan. Sold as-is, no warranty of any kind. Buyer to verify all info to their satisfaction.” Mold attack? Who knows – regardless, it’s not move-in ready.

    3. 9021 10th Ave – This looks more legit, and the list price has been dropping about 20K every two weeks to now 22% less than the assessed value – so they’re serious about moving the property. Still the description says, “Short Sale Approved. … Just needs a little TLC…” Is it move-in ready, or will does “little TLC” imply substantial additional investment? And is that an elusive example of a pre-approved short-sale firm-offer price – or does “short sale approved” mean “the bank will let us try to sell short but still has final say about accepting the price”?

    Maybe I’m asking for too much when I set the high bar of a non-fixer, move-in-ready, normal-sale house without a fishy sale history, but I looked and couldn’t find anything in that category for less than $125/sqft which is quite a distance from $74.

    As far as cheaper home prices in the midwest go – it’s a different world. Five years ago I bought a wonderful house in Lawrence, Kansas (a great college town about an hour from Kansas City) for less than $90 per square foot, in what’s considered a very desirable part of town. I know it’s cliche, but “The American Dream” survives in much of the midwest where a man of modest means can still afford to own his own home and raise his family in a decent and comfortable lifestyle in a terrific, safe, and friendly community. Then again, one forgoes the mountains, the forests, and the sea, but good beef, bbq, and beer are cheap and easy to get.

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  18. Ryan

    Totally off topic (sorry) but have you ever done a thread on the “missed fortune” nonsense that was popular for a while? I am curious if anybody is even still doing these seminars or knows of any brokers that are still trying to hold themselves out as “financial” professionals…..

    Also, what is up with this guy? Has anyone ever heard of him?

    http://www.thachnguyen.com/

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  19. Ira Sacharoff

    “5926 S Eastwood – Um, I’m not sure what happened here, but according to Redfin, it was “Sold” only 3 weeks ago at $285,000 (already 25% down from the 2006 peak sale price) and is now listed nearly 30% less at $205,000″

    What happened was foreclosure. It’s now a bank owned property. The “sale ” price” of 285 three weeks ago wasn’t exactly an actual sale, but rather the amount of money owed plus late fees, etc on the property. I looked at the listing photos from a couple of years ago,something I have access to with MLS access, and it looked pretty good then, though a lot can change in a couple of years.

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  20. ray pepper

    Sitting here in Carson City and noticed Ira and his new Ad (I love it). Brent Fosso with a new Big Picture, East Bellevue Real Estate (?), and Findwell with their banner. Now all we need is to place David Losh to the right and the Bubble will be complete!

    What a motley crue that would be!

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  21. John

    RE: Urban Artist @ 7 – According to this Microsoft employee blog, everyone’s making $100k. http://minimsft.blogspot.com/2009/08/microsoft-annual-review-2009.html

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  22. Scotsman

    Spokane, baby! A neighborhood where you won’t get shot, a bit of room, in town, solid construction and a bit of charm. The best part? A single person, or a couple with only the husband working for WA’s minimum wage ($8.55) can qualify for the $308/month payment. Go FHA and PITI is still probably under $400.

    http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=300257316

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  23. Scotsman

    Get off the grid and survive the coming economic crisis. $120,000. 2,000 square foot log home on 20 acres in NE WA. Now we’re talking!

    MLS#: 28189307

    http://www.johnlscott.com/propertylist.aspx?GroupID=205370250

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  24. The Kid

    RE: Indy @ 18
    I lived in Lawrence for about six months once upon a time. Nice town. I still keep in contact with a friend out there. She moved to Kansas City several years ago. Works for Sprint. Her rather nice home cost her $75k, and is paid off. She was looking at moving out here to work for T-Mo, took one look at the housing costs and just about threw up in her shoes.

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  25. Buford

    By Scotsman @ 23:

    Spokane, baby! A neighborhood where you won’t get shot, a bit of room, in town, solid construction and a bit of charm. The best part? A single person, or a couple with only the husband working for WA’s minimum wage ($8.55) can qualify for the $308/month payment. Go FHA and PITI is still probably under $400.

    Looks like a nice little home with lots of character. Probably in a bad neighborhood (yes, Spokane does have bad neighborhoods)

    This house also needs 100K worth of improvements to bring up to what “most” people “need’ .

    Everybody talks about lack of inexpensive homes, but when one is presented to them, quite often it doesn’t meet their standards.

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  26. mukoh

    RE: ray pepper @ 21 – You think it will help Lush drum up business? LOL

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  27. truthtold

    Lawrence is nice and dull as hell, no? yikes.

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  28. deprogram

    By Urban Artist @ 7:

    That is true who would want to live in those areas. Plus even at those prices I would not consider those houses to be a good value. I have been wondering why it is taking so long for this area to reset and houses start to be priced more realistic to incomes. Rentals are even priced crazy. Does everyone make six figure plus incomes. Most of our friends do not and we are well educated types. According to the post about Short sales it seems that the banks are still trying to keep things inflated as long as possible.

    The cheapest houses aren’t good value by any standard of measure. In fact, they are terrible value. Only above 200k do you start getting structures that aren’t basically tear-downs. Spend a little more, and you might actually get a livable place that won’t need immediate attention.

    The best values are the homes that have taken the greatest hit from depreciation already – meaning the ones in the higher price tiers. However, these properties are still subject to the effects of depreciation. So are the cheapest ones! However, a 50% loss on 175k is a big difference from a 50% loss on 325k.

    I can’t even afford to rent, the bubble pushed mortgages so high. Wish I had some kind of rent-free arrangement or had moved into the area before the bubble, but in 1995 I was still in high-school.

    I’m getting hosed paying for someone else’s ridiculous mortgage. We need to move so they are foreclosed on or are forced to short and the market can correct.

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  29. David Losh

    RE: ray pepper @ 21

    I was thinking of that but the Bellevue guy kind of classes up the place.

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  30. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: David Losh @ 30

    I guess you couldn’t really call my ad ” classy”.

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