Looks like it’s time for September market statistics from the NWMLS. Here’s the NWMLS press release: Northwest MLS brokers agree "there’s a lot to be optimistic about".
Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is positive or negative news for buyers and sellers:
| September 2009 | Number | MOM | YOY | Buyers | Sellers |
| Active Listings | 9,360 | -1.4% | -19.4% |  |
 |
| Closed Sales | 1,618 | +0.6% | +14.3% | |
|
| SAAS (?) | 1.82 | -5.1% | -19.3% | |
|
| Pending Sales | 2,289 | -1.0% | +29.5 | |
|
| Months of Supply | 4.09 | -0.4% | -37.8% | |
|
| Median Price* | $382,160 | +1.9% | -7.9% | |
|
Closed sales were basically in a holding pattern the last four months, trending similarly to the pattern we have seen in pending sales since roughly April. April – September pending sales have ranged between 2,114 and 2,447, while June – September closed sales have ranged between 1,609 and 1,727.
I suspect we will see a much stronger November for closed sales than usual, due to the impending expiration of the free money handout for knife-catchers, but I doubt that it will climb much above the 1,600-1,700 range we have seen through the summer. Historically (2000-2008), November closed sales volume has averaged 71% of June volume. 71% of this year’s June volume would be 1,179 sales this November. I’m guessing it will be higher than that, but I don’t see it going much above 1,500 – 1,600.
Here’s a visual of June volume (usually at or near the peak in the summer) vs. November volume since 2000:
Here’s how the closed sales situation is shaping up compared to previous years:
Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format. Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.
Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.
Inventory still pretty much flat-lining. Just enough people putting their homes on the market to satisfy the monthly demand. Not much more, not much less.
Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in the following two charts is now represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.
Another bump back up for the YOY closed sales. I suspect this will be in positive territory through November at least, and possibly December, depending on whether the tax credit is extended / expanded or allowed to expire.
Here’s the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:
Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:
And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.
Pretty much right at 2005 pricing. September 2005: $381,250. September 2009: $382,160.
Here’s a few news blurbs to hold you over until tomorrow’s reporting roundup, which may be posted later in the day than usual to give this post a longer period at the top of the page.
Seattle Times: Home sales in September surge in King County but prices still declining
Seattle P-I: King County home sales surge, but pitfalls remain
Go back up to the second chart in this post for a sec. Would someone mind explaining to me which part of that data constitutes a “surge”?
Scotsman » Oct 5, 2009 at 1:56 pm
“the impending expiration of the free money handout for knife-catchers”
As predicted, it looks like the tax credit has a very good chance of being both increased and extended. Will those who bought now be given the larger credit if this passes, or left to fume? Given this trend, should one buy now or wait?
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2009/10/schumer-and-cornyn-we-agree-on-tax.html
Acerun » Oct 5, 2009 at 2:16 pm
The link on Seattle Times.com tells me that “King County home sales surge in September”
Sounds good to me!
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 5, 2009 at 2:17 pm
RE: Scotsman @ 1 – If the credit is doubled, and an agent puts down December 1 as a closing date because so many sites say the old credit expires December 1, can the agent sue the client for malpractice and collect the difference? ;-)
This actually does present quite the quandary for a buyer right now. Hurry up to get the eight, or wait for the possibility of something larger. One option might be to set a closing very close to the end and then get the closing extended. I not sure you could pay the seller for that extension, however. The bank might have a problem with that, even though it would benefit their borrower. The transition provisions, if it is passed with an increase, should be interesting.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 5, 2009 at 2:24 pm
For King County SFR, the change in mean, median and volume compared to August is meaningless. Just noise.
Dave0 » Oct 5, 2009 at 2:39 pm
I don’t think a 1.9% increase MOM or a 7.09% decrease YOY in median prices is good news for buyers.
The last time there was a MOM increase in median price from August to September was in 2000. That’s yet another sign that the market is turning around in my opinion.
As for the YOY decrease, sure it’s a decrease, but it’s the smallest YOY decrease we’ve seen since 2008, and the last six months have shown a steady trend of the YOY decreases approaching zero.
If we’re not at the bottom now, we will be very soon… (March 2009 still holds the record for the lowest median price since 2005)
Back to basic » Oct 5, 2009 at 3:21 pm
looks like the volume is up compare to last year. don’t have to wait for the absolute bottom to catch a deal. if everyone realize the bottom and economy has turn around, deal will be hard to catch: multiple bid, higher interest rate, hard to bargain with sellers and bank. like stock market earlier this year. if you miss a couple of few week rally, the deal is gone. Seattle is always an attractive place to live. even people are still paying less renting doesn’t mean you should stop look for good deal. Deal is there and rate is very low. if you are not look to flip the house for a profit in a year, now is the good time to look. rain is coming, good to catch water leakage. sell is slow for the winter, 8k will probably extended after Dec 1st. if 2010 is the tuning point for real esatate, winter 2009 is the perfect time to shop.
patient » Oct 5, 2009 at 3:29 pm
RE: Dave0 @ 5 -
“I don’t think a 1.9% increase MOM or a 7.09% decrease YOY in median prices is good news for buyers.”
I wouldn’t worry Dave0, it’s borrowed government money that creates some noise, in the end laws of nature and economy will prevail, they always do. 10% unemployment, record deficit, record number of foreclosures, a looming second wave of the financial meltdown from commercial real estate etc, etc. Don’t be fooled by some temporary flattening due to massive government spending. It can’t go on forever and you can’t borrow yourself out of debt.
Acerun » Oct 5, 2009 at 3:51 pm
No bottom until fundamentals of affordability are fixed.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 5, 2009 at 3:56 pm
RE: Back to basic @ 6 – Again I’d say you really should have reasons to buy that don’t pertain to market predictions as your primary reason for buying. I’d also caution against reading too much into short term trends. The short term trend in July 2008 looked pretty good, but that was over $50,000 of median ago! Big national events override short term local trends.
That said, I don’t agree with Acerun in #8 either. ;-)
Back to basic » Oct 5, 2009 at 4:16 pm
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9 –
Majority of the home owner bought their home before the bubble. If they maintain their job, they won’t walk away. The 22% price down reflected the current can still give up some of their gain with more than 50% gain during last decade. Unless they have to leave Seattle, they don’t need to sell. The affordibility won’t been solved if you can still rent for cheap. There will always a portion of population couldn’t afford a house but just rent. Compare to renting, ownership provide a different life style. If Seattle start losing population, then the housing price will get beat. Otherwise, it’s just the bubble get out. Where the bottom is, no one knows. But 22% off the peak, the bottom is close than what we see 2 years ago.
Acerun » Oct 5, 2009 at 4:18 pm
By Kary L. Krismer @ 9:
What else is new? :)
Poetrywater » Oct 5, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Get ready for the Alt-A loan disaster…
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2009/09/20/will-new-song-title-be-i-left-my-home-in-san-francisco/
Any thoughts on this for the Seattle area?
Scotsman » Oct 5, 2009 at 5:18 pm
RE: Back to basic @ 6 –
Oh boy, another Realtor!
Greg Perry » Oct 5, 2009 at 5:36 pm
By Scotsman @ 13:
2000! 2000! 2000! Come on baby, only 2 more good months and we’ll be there.
AMS » Oct 5, 2009 at 6:21 pm
RE: Scotsman @ 13 – Another one born every day.
AMS » Oct 5, 2009 at 6:23 pm
What happened with total sales volume, measured in dollars, [=average selling price * total units sold]?
MoM, YoY
Scotsman » Oct 5, 2009 at 6:29 pm
RE: AMS @ 16 –
Sshhhhh! Be very quiet! We really don’t want to go there..
AMS » Oct 5, 2009 at 6:42 pm
RE: Scotsman @ 17 – Aw, come on. Even if there is a small uptick from all the $8k free handouts, wait until after the tax credit expires expires!
waitingforseattletocool » Oct 5, 2009 at 8:09 pm
The Tim,
Sales “surged” YOY +14.3%.
This as opposed to the “plunge” YOY -10% in November as reported by Calculated Risk.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/existing-home-sales-plunge-in-november.html
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 5, 2009 at 9:30 pm
By AMS @ 16:
This is King County SFR since January (which was a low point):
$305,401,532.00
$312,994,737.00
$407,832,920.00
$451,236,756.00
$586,631,936.00
$798,315,730.00
$801,452,344.00
$734,645,265.00
$736,795,132.00
what goes up must come down » Oct 5, 2009 at 10:37 pm
RE: Back to basic @ 6 – how about taking a break from the cheerleading okay we have been there and done that
hzg » Oct 5, 2009 at 10:37 pm
this data should be seasonally adjusted, so here it is for King Co. (closed) Sales:
date, King CO Sales, f, SA
9/1/09 1618 0.936402087 1515.098577
8/1/09 1609 0.828646533 1333.292271
7/1/09 1727 0.841315094 1452.951167
6/1/09 1655 0.824940406 1365.276371
5/1/09 1312 0.886793611 1163.473217
4/1/09 1004 0.973202023 977.0948309
3/1/09 968 0.972242798 941.1310287
2/1/09 661 1.412110155 933.4048123
1/1/09 674 1.398900676 942.859056
12/1/08 929 1.067151419 991.3836682
11/1/08 869 1.100639236 956.4554963
10/1/08 1319 0.953806476 1258.070742
9/1/08 1415 0.936402087 1325.008954
8/1/08 1533 0.828646533 1270.315134
7/1/08 1562 0.841315094 1314.134176
6/1/08 1592 0.824940406 1313.305126
5/1/08 1533 0.886793611 1359.454605
4/1/08 1551 0.973202023 1509.436337
3/1/08 1503 0.972242798 1461.280926
2/1/08 1148 1.412110155 1621.102458
1/1/08 1037 1.398900676 1450.660002
12/1/07 1340 1.067151419 1429.982901
11/1/07 1525 1.100639236 1678.474835
10/1/07 1659 0.953806476 1582.364943
9/1/07 1697 0.936402087 1589.074342
8/1/07 2310 0.828646533 1914.17349
7/1/07 2501 0.841315094 2104.129049
6/1/07 2632 0.824940406 2171.243148
5/1/07 2537 0.886793611 2249.79539
4/1/07 2173 0.973202023 2114.767996
3/1/07 2286 0.972242798 2222.547037
2/1/07 1572 1.412110155 2219.837163
1/1/07 1558 1.398900676 2179.487254
12/1/06 1905 1.067151419 2032.923453
11/1/06 2081 1.100639236 2290.430251
10/1/06 2300 0.953806476 2193.754894
9/1/06 2358 0.936402087 2208.036122
8/1/06 2923 0.828646533 2422.133815
7/1/06 2653 0.841315094 2232.008943
6/1/06 3000 0.824940406 2474.821217
5/1/06 2606 0.886793611 2310.984149
4/1/06 2344 0.973202023 2281.185542
3/1/06 2386 0.972242798 2319.771316
2/1/06 1679 1.412110155 2370.93295
1/1/06 1599 1.398900676 2236.842182
12/1/05 2407 1.067151419 2568.633465
11/1/05 2441 1.100639236 2686.660376
10/1/05 2710 0.953806476 2584.81555
9/1/05 2958 0.936402087 2769.877374
8/1/05 3179 0.828646533 2634.267327
7/1/05 3080 0.841315094 2591.250488
6/1/05 3136 0.824940406 2587.013112
5/1/05 2897 0.886793611 2569.04109
4/1/05 2841 0.973202023 2764.866947
3/1/05 2858 0.972242798 2778.669917
2/1/05 1755 1.412110155 2478.253322
1/1/05 1677 1.398900676 2345.956434
12/1/04 2813 1.067151419 3001.896942
11/1/04 2461 1.100639236 2708.673161
10/1/04 2515 0.953806476 2398.823287
9/1/04 2640 0.936402087 2472.101511
8/1/04 2941 0.828646533 2437.049452
7/1/04 3268 0.841315094 2749.417726
6/1/04 3345 0.824940406 2759.425657
5/1/04 2842 0.886793611 2520.267441
4/1/04 2646 0.973202023 2575.092552
3/1/04 2376 0.972242798 2310.048889
2/1/04 1607 1.412110155 2269.261019
1/1/04 1879 1.398900676 2628.534371
12/1/03 2171 1.067151419 2316.785731
11/1/03 2055 1.100639236 2261.813631
10/1/03 2922 0.953806476 2787.022522
9/1/03 2941 0.936402087 2753.958539
8/1/03 2740 0.828646533 2270.491499
7/1/03 2963 0.841315094 2492.816622
6/1/03 2619 0.824940406 2160.518922
5/1/03 2657 0.886793611 2356.210623
4/1/03 2277 0.973202023 2215.981006
3/1/03 2125 0.972242798 2066.015946
2/1/03 1962 1.412110155 2770.560124
1/1/03 1684 1.398900676 2355.748739
12/1/02 1948 1.067151419 2078.810964
11/1/02 1802 1.100639236 1983.351904
10/1/02 1962 0.953806476 1871.368306
9/1/02 1990 0.936402087 1863.440154
8/1/02 2219 0.828646533 1838.766656
7/1/02 2143 0.841315094 1802.938245
6/1/02 2129 0.824940406 1756.298124
5/1/02 2395 0.886793611 2123.870697
4/1/02 1969 0.973202023 1916.234783
3/1/02 1975 0.972242798 1920.179526
2/1/02 1349 1.412110155 1904.936599
1/1/02 1733 1.398900676 2424.294872
12/1/01 1552 1.067151419 1656.219002
11/1/01 1427 1.100639236 1570.61219
10/1/01 1865 0.953806476 1778.849077
9/1/01 1969 0.936402087 1843.77571
8/1/01 2290 0.828646533 1897.60056
7/1/01 2226 0.841315094 1872.767398
6/1/01 2336 0.824940406 1927.060788
5/1/01 1996 0.886793611 1770.040047
4/1/01 2000 0.973202023 1946.404046
3/1/01 2307 0.972242798 2242.964135
2/1/01 1235 1.412110155 1743.956041
1/1/01 1333 1.398900676 1864.734602
12/1/00 1696 1.067151419 1809.888807
11/1/00 1786 1.100639236 1965.741676
10/1/00 2019 0.953806476 1925.735275
9/1/00 1990 0.936402087 1863.440154
8/1/00 2852 0.828646533 2363.299911
7/1/00 2021 0.841315094 1700.297804
6/1/00 2141 0.824940406 1766.197409
5/1/00 2170 0.886793611 1924.342135
4/1/00 1948 0.973202023 1895.79754
3/1/00 2002 0.972242798 1946.430082
2/1/00 1298 1.412110155 1832.918981
1/1/00 1245 1.398900676 1741.631342
what goes up must come down » Oct 5, 2009 at 10:42 pm
RE: Back to basic @ 10 – “If they maintain their job” hello you remember the 10% unemployment right, geez now I know how we will get the next bubble.
AMS » Oct 5, 2009 at 10:43 pm
RE: hzg @ 21 – “5/1/07 2537 0.886793611 2249.79539″
Are you sure f isn’t closer to 0.886793601?
mukoh » Oct 5, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Seattle was voted as #5 most desirable city to live by some poll today. New York was #1.
Tyler » Oct 6, 2009 at 6:54 am
RE: mukoh @ 24 –
I know that people talk about all of the great companies that are around here making it a great community, but I found a direct correlation between Seattle’s popularity and the number of Sleepless in Seattle reruns on TV. If you limit the poll to just men who haven’t seen the movie, Seattle drops significantly!
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 7:32 am
The Tim, were you quoted out of context in the Times today? I assume that by your saying the apparent strength is entirely due to government intervention, you’re also referring to things like low interest rates, not just the $8,000 credit.
AMS » Oct 6, 2009 at 7:36 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 – link?
The Tim » Oct 6, 2009 at 7:41 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 – Yeah the quote was slightly incomplete (edit: here’s a link to the story). Eric asked:
Here’s my response in full:
The article by Rich Toscano that I linked goes into more detail as well:
I didn’t feel like Eric was quoting me in a way that totally changed the thrust of what I was saying.
On the subject of tax credits, this dropped in my email this morning and I thought it was a rather surprising perspective from a realtor: Let’s increase the Home Buyer Tax Credit to $100,000… (that’s a sarcastic headline). Even more surprising was that most all the comments on the post (by other agents) were in agreement that the credit is hurting more than it is helping. Seems like the NAR is out of touch with the rank-and-file REALTORS these days…
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 7:48 am
Thanks. Although now I see why it happened–you’re too verbose! ;-)
As to NAR and agents, I suspect most agents would like to see it extended, but I doubt that’s on any deep analysis. My desire it to just not have it expire in November, because I think people are too driven by headlines, and thus I’d rather have it expire in maybe February, March or April where seasonality factors would counter the expiration. But I’ve not seen any proposals that wouldn’t just extend it another year, to another November.
Acerun » Oct 6, 2009 at 8:08 am
I just actually read the whole article on the times. It made me want to puke.
It is sad that a two income family, a lawyer and therapist, have to live in a crap townhouse in West Seattle none the less.
I really like the quote from Jordan Malloch, “There’s still a lot of pent-up demand.”.
That is like the Iraqi Minister of Information telling me that Baghdad is secure…
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:16 am
By Acerun @ 30:
People here are way too focused on price. Pent up demand is more likely to result from changes in family than changes in price. Marriage. Kids being born. Kids reaching a certain age. Parents reaching a certain age.
Market conditions might make them either afraid or unable to act. For example, moving up is a lot more difficult and stressful now, because it more typically involves selling the existing house first, which constrains the time to find and buy the new house.
Also, lack of equity in an existing house can make a move virtually impossible. I’m not sure whether you’d consider that pent up demand though.
Back to basic » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:22 am
RE: what goes up must come down @ 22 –
You think 22% down from peak for no reason. The 22% off peak is directly link to 10% distressed owners or renters. So job market improvement is critical for housing improvement. Whatever bubble you called it or not. We all like bubble, don’t we? People even like to add air to their food. Your favorite coffee, pop corn and bread.
AMS » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:31 am
The Tim-
I don’t remember that percent difference in the graph yesterday. Did you just add it?
In any event, I wonder where is 100%? It appears that 45% is not very far up the scale, for example. Also when dealing with percent difference, you should be clear about the base, although I see in this case the November data is always lower.
Maybe you could have November sales in terms of % of the other. (ie 1-%diff). It actually appears that 45% is greater than 55% by the way you have the data presented.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:36 am
RE: Back to basic @ 32 – Without bank owned and short sales the median would have been over $400,000 most of this summer. Only two months in 2007 were over $470,000, with the peak being $481,000, and presumably only a small percentage of such sales were bank owned or short sales. Thus, apples to apples we are roughly 17% off the peak.
Of course, just like any of these numbers that doesn’t mean much to anyone. If you’re in Skyway in a house that is 30% off the peak, that’s where you are, not some number based on the entire county.
cheapseats » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:41 am
RE: Back to basic @ 32 – What are you talking about?
Acerun » Oct 6, 2009 at 9:44 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 31 –
So, if market conditions were different ;then the “pent up” “would be” buyers, would be able to “buy”.
The pent up buyers cant buy so they really aren’t pent up.
I would really love to buy a Maserati but my market conditions are not allowing that right now. Am I a pent up Maserati buyer?
Ira Sacharoff » Oct 6, 2009 at 10:07 am
RE: Acerun @ 36 –
Only if you qualify for the 8000 dollar US government sponsored” First Time Maserati Buyer’s Bonus”.
The Tim » Oct 6, 2009 at 10:07 am
By AMS @ 33:
Yes, I updated the chart once I got home to my copy of Excel 2007. Thanks for the input on the presentation. I mainly just wanted to add the % change as a number on there, and I scaled the axis such that most of the numbers would overlay on the red and blue bars. The basic point I’m trying to make with that chart is just that it is highly unlikely we’ll see more than 1,600 sales this coming November (let alone 2,000, Greg).
AMS » Oct 6, 2009 at 10:23 am
RE: The Tim @ 38 – The % difference is trending up, but the % of November sales to June is trending lower.
A nice trend analysis showing the downward % completed will probably support what you are trying to show.
For example, let’s suggest that the current trend started in 2005, 4 years ago.
% November sales to June sales, same year.
2005 78%
2006 69%
2007 58%
2008 55%
2009 ??%
Looks like it could be as low as 50%, plus or minus, if the $8k credit had no impact whatsoever.
If the $8k credit has some impact, then let’s increase it, but how much? Given the trend data, I doubt we will see much more than 80% completed.
Now we have an upper bound of 80%
And a lower bound of 50%.
A projection of 1,600 sales is nearing 100%, which does seem high, using trend analysis.
S. Marty Pantz » Oct 6, 2009 at 11:11 am
‘Pending Homes Sales: Worthless’: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33122690
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 12:36 pm
By Acerun @ 36:
I guess it depends on what you mean pent up, which is sort of what I indicated. Is it only people who could buy now? What about people who want to, but need the market to improve 5%? 10%?
The only people it doesn’t include for sure are people like me, who have no intention of buying anything for probably at least 5 years, if not 10, because I have no intention of selling for that long.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 12:38 pm
By S. Marty Pantz @ 40:
Wow, CNBC got something right! I think that’s one of the signs that the world is coming to an end.
I have a mailing I send to clients that is also called Reality Check, and it covered the same topic, although I wrote it over a month ago.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Here are some less reported facts from the King County SFR sales statistics.
YTD sales are 11,228 vs 12,874 for 2008. The difference is largely due to the first three months of the year.
Average time on market 76 days vs 73 for 2008. Not really a significant change.
YTD average time on market is 80 vs 73 for 2008. A bit more significant, but still under three months to get an offer, on average, for those listings that do sell.
Acerun » Oct 6, 2009 at 3:54 pm
By Kary L. Krismer @ 43:
Can you show the average days on the market for units that are for sale and then removed and not sold?
Seattle Homes » Oct 6, 2009 at 3:56 pm
The % Year-To-Year SFH Price Change is about the only strong-looking chart of the group. The rest look stable, but not reassuring yet.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 6, 2009 at 4:39 pm
By Acerun @ 45:
Unofficially it’s 128. I’m surprised it’s that low.
Must be a lot of people giving up on limited service brokers early! :-D
Number from NMWLS sources but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.