RE: You’re frozen by fear, always have been, and always will be. You’ve never bought a house and never will buy a house. You’re too scared to ever pull the trigger.

Actually, I own a house outright, which I bought for well less than the current value. That’s why I can easily save (i.e invest) over 50% of my income. I’m in the market for a 2nd home, but have held off due to the obviousness of the bubble. I’ve made a small fortune so far using my investment tactics, and I’ll buy a 2nd home when, as Warren Buffet says, I get sufficient value for the money I spend. The key here is to understand the risks involved in leveraged investments. This means–know your markets.

Gee, this making assumptions about others that are totally unsupported by any facts–could be pretty fun stuff for some. However, to really enjoy it you’d really have to not give a “golly” about not being wrong.

See above.

The fact remains that Tim, Patient, Patrick, myself, and a plethora of others have been right so far. But don’t lose hope. I’d say we’re about midway through the game, so there’s still a lot of play left.

Gee, this making assumptions about others that are totally unsupported by any facts–could be pretty fun stuff for some. However, to really enjoy it you’d really have to not give a "golly" about not being wrong. I can see why you like it.

It’s because what you write is nonsense!

The truth is, buying a house right now comes with an enormous risk to the downside. By claiming market timing is “a fool’s game,” you are minimizing the massive downside risk. As a home consumer, I resent RE professionals who gloss over risk. I am seeing too many people getting completely wiped out and having to start over amidst a jobless recovery because they placed their trust in slick-talking RE know-it-alls who minimized home-buying risk.

“When people are greedy, be fearful and when people are fearful, be greedy.” We all recognize the source of this market timing recommendation. You would do well to stop insulting those who pay attention to market timing and historical value-related fundamentals. Just because you have a poor track record of using these tools does not mean that others cannot benefit from their use.

That is why you get so little respect from me. You simply don’t understand the real world

I’m the buyer Kary. That puts me smack dab in the middle of the real world. As long as buyers buy houses, you profit no matter what direction prices trend. Thus, it’s easy for you to claim market timing is for fools, and historical value ratios are meaningless. But I’m stuck with the consequences of poorly thought out decisions that result from blindly listening to self-proclaimed know-it-alls. Median price/median income, unemployment rate, interest rates, value ratios, etc, they appropriately rule the value investor’s world. You aptly point out that very few home consumers care about such things. I point out this doesn’t mean such things are of non-importance to those who wish to make good investments.

Warren Buffet said: “Price is something you pay. Value is something you get.”

In 2003, credit was cheap and easy, house prices were much cheaper than now, jobs were plentiful compared to now, and inflation-adjusted incomes were roughly the same. Relatively speaking, buying a home right now gives you very little value. Obviously, exceptions to this rule exists, but this should not downplay the existence of the rule.

IMO, the reason you attack me is precisely because I understand the real world. Unfortunately, the real world is not currently rewarding your profession at the same level it did in the recent past.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/japanes-and-us-housing-bubbles.png

Even so, a state government hiring freeze, enacted in 2008, has curtailed employment here, and the unemployment rate is now running at 9.9%

Not to mention, Gregoire sent a letter out last week saying the revenues will be AT LEAST a billion below the previous forecast and to expect more State employee layoffs.

Japanese house prices didn’t correct overnight. They slowly eroded year after year.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/180084.asp

Did that turn him off? No. He’s still interested in the complex (and can qualify for conventional if necessary), but has a better understanding of the risks.

But in the bizarre world of Jonness a real estate agent would never give a client that information, and a buyer would never be interested in such a property if they knew of such information. That is why you get so little respect from me. You simply don’t understand the real world. You have your own preconceived notions that are more often wrong than right.

I can only imagine what the people who listened to you in 2006-2007 are thinking now?

BTW, what year did you buy your home? It seems to me, talk is cheap, but the proof is in the pudding.

And you wonder why I attack you? It’s because what you write is nonsense!

You know nothing of what I say to clients! You make assumptions which based on your ignorance (and apparent illiteracy) are wrong, and you want some respect? Get real. I’ve said over and over I don’t predict the market. Ignoring the fact I represent more sellers than buyers, I’ve said over and over that if a client asks about future prices I tell them know one knows. I’ve said over and over that if someone (a non-client) comes up to me and ask if the market is going to recover in X years, I often have to tell them several times that no one knows, because they have their own preconceived notions that are difficult to get out of their heads.

And as to my house, yes I bought shortly at the peak, but I also sold shortly after the peak. And the net result is probably a gain because where I bought has dropped relatively little, while where I sold has dropped a ton. And I’ve also mentioned that people (mainly family) were encouraging me to keep both houses, but that I didn’t want to be that heavy in real estate. Again, you’re showing your ignorance and apparent illiteracy. You’re just like the person who comes up expecting the answer that real estate will go up in two years–you know I’m a real estate agent and you expect a certain answer and nothing I say changes your impression.

Finally, again you’re showing the over-fascination with price that is typical of a group here. Most people are not going to sell a house and then rent because of price trends. That group would be a very tiny percentage of the population. I would guess less than 1%. As I’ve mentioned in the past I’m too much of a control freak to rent. Some people complain about HOAs because of the lack of control. Renting raises that to a whole different level. The idea of my selling and renting doesn’t fit me at all, but in any case, given my timeframe (over 10 years) it really makes little sense. Why would I want to move twice in a X year period? Moving sucks.

I would agree with the comments that: (1) Trying to time the market is a fool’s game

Who is more foolish?

1) A person who believed economic fundamentals have nothing to do with house prices and bought a house near the peak of the bubble during a period when RE agents were claiming “house prices will go up forever”

2) A person who payed attention to economic fundamentals, predicted we were amidst a housing bubble about to burst, held off buying a house, and saved a small fortune as a result.

I can only imagine what the people who listened to you in 2006-2007 are thinking now? Recall this was at a time when websites were going up right and left warning people we were approaching a peak in a massive housing bubble on the verge of bursting. Those predictions turned out to be 100% accurate.

BTW, what year did you buy your home? It seems to me, talk is cheap, but the proof is in the pudding.

I like your sarcasm – funniest thing I’ve red in a while

@Softwarengineer

The supply of dollars is controlled by the Fed, and the latter has all the power in the world to shrink it when time comes. The conventional wisdom of inevitability of out-of-control inflation under current policies is a myth. You’ll see.

Here is visual of what a market collapse looks like.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/124285.asp#comments

These absorption rate charts are for the 3rd quarter 2007 (published in October 2007). The March 2007 AR heat maps were mostly red with most of the areas in the region coming in as sellers advantaged markets. The absorption rates started tightening in April May and June. Even though July was the highest median month, the absoprtion slide actually started in the 2nd quarter. These 3 months of the 3rd quarter were stunning in the way the market shut off. Median prices follow absorption rates whether they go up or down.

The 2009 heat maps are turning from green to yellow / red with September 2009 heat map looks very similar to that July 2007 map.

I said the RE prices would follow the stocks.

I’ll clarify that now that the dollar is plummetting in value and stocks are going up. Seattle RE prices will eventually follow the stock market when the price of everything bought with worthless dollars get’s so high no one will be able to afford it and then stocks will collapse [i.e., like the autos did].

Umm… Why don’t you ask the guys that wrote the piece???

RE: TJ_98370 @ 13 – …….. Hiding behind a state university and guise of a research organization is what gets my goat.

Totally agree.

Gardner and Crellin are both shoo-ins for a Hall of Shame induction. What really makes their past predictions pathetic is they were done under astroturf titles such as “Washington Center for Real Estate Research” and “Land Use Economist”. Statements like theirs from commissioned real estate salespeople is to be expected and can be tolerated.

.
If you check out the WCRER Board of Trustees, you will find that 47% of them are Realtors and 35% of the remaining are into real estate developing / investing / consulting / financing. Given their backgrounds, it is easy to understand WCRER bias.

Olympia’s housing correction has been a mild one; at $184,000, existing home prices remain above 2004 levels. Even so, a state government hiring freeze, enacted in 2008, has curtailed employment here, and the unemployment rate is now running at 9.9% Though new households are still forming, median income levels have fallen 8.5% during the last year.

Umm… how does that make it a strong market?

that’s what all the realtors say. if that’s true, how do they know that “now” is ALWAYS a good time to buy? wouldn’t they just say I don’t know if it’s a good time to buy?

btw, mebane faber might be on to something. he finds that the housing market exhibits strong momentum.

Is It Time to Hedge Your House?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/47557-is-it-time-to-hedge-your-house

http://www.builderonline.com/local-markets/healthiest-housing-markets-2009-fall-update.aspx

Scott is my favorite realtor, always has been. The man has myopia down to a science.

This is why the 6% Golden Carrot cannot EVER work for the best interests of the consumer. When the reward is so great the interests of the recipient will ALWAYS out trump that of the client.

Give me a break. On the topic of fool’s games, listening to a real estate agent about the future of prices (up or down) would have to be right up there near the top. None of the 6% goes for predictions.

Next in line would be listening to economists and other gurus (e.g. Cramer) about the future of the world. But at least they are actually (over-)paid to make such predictions.

Those comments were probably said meaning something entirely different, but they’re just as applicable today as they were two years ago.

My suggesting: Never, and I mean never, love anything that won’t love you back.