- via Mish:"We are at greater risk of a total meltdown due to a deflationary collapse than we were in 2007." http://is.gd/3XFvc #
- Wow, nearly 1 in 5 downtown Seattle offices are sitting empty right now, and vacancy "hasn't peaked." http://is.gd/3YwWH #
- Time to eliminate gov. subsidies that have turned homeownership into "an economic ball and chain." http://is.gd/3Yyaf #
- via the Seattle Times: Frontier Financial's acquisition called off http://is.gd/3YSBz #
- Difficult choice for the $1.25 mil homebuyer. http://is.gd/3ZeQ9 vs http://is.gd/3ZeQT #
- Surprising honesty from a Georgia Realtor: "Why not make the tax credit it $100k? Expand it to everyone?" http://is.gd/40mEm #
- Pierce Co. officials apparently have nothing better to do than scour aerial imagery 4 unpermitted decks on private prop. http://is.gd/40mWq #
- Why aren't landlords & large apartment management firms like Equity Residential lobbying against renewing the $8k credit? http://is.gd/40sx4 #
- Seattle #19, just above NY in Forbes' latest pointless list: "Where Americans Pay Most to Live" http://is.gd/42Kjm #
- via KING 5: Newcastle home permit revenue down 90% from "a few years ago" http://is.gd/42KsD #
- WSJ: w/ a 10.9% drop, Seattle office rents experienced the 6th-largest decline over the last year. http://is.gd/42KHp #
- Forbes.com lists @raincityguide as RE blog that "focuses tightly on a particular local market." I count 2 of the last 8 posts that are local #
- Sweet, I just noticed that Google Maps outlines parcel boundaries for Snohomish Co. in the default map view. Not King or Pierce though. #
- Fed. foreclosure efforts "may simply delay mortgage defaults for many" http://is.gd/46Pri #
- WA Dept. of Financial Institutions says developer Mike Mastro illegally sold $100 million in unregistered securities http://is.gd/48Qvi #
- Giant hole at 2nd & Pine to be filled in. http://is.gd/48Sbh #
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Seattle Homes » Oct 10, 2009 at 8:28 am
Pierce County is using aerial/satellite photos to find unpermitted work? That’s the best Big Brother story I’ve read in a while.
seattlerenter » Oct 10, 2009 at 9:24 am
About the Pierce county satelite photos I was watching the peice on the news and they claim it is to save lives. What a crock one girl died years ago from a collapsing deck and now they want to protect the public from illegal sheds and decks, oh yeah nothing about the revenue, no, give me a break.
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 10, 2009 at 9:33 am
A lot of non-permitted work is very substandard, but I don’t think most of it is a risk of personal injury as much as financial injury. I’ve seen additions built on the dirt with wood to earth contact, no foundation whatsoever.
One thing on what Pierce County is doing, however, is that it won’t affect total revenues, but could affect individual real estate taxes. If you make a major improvement without permits, it’s very unlikely to get reassessed. Although that won’t necessarily happen with permits either.
AMS » Oct 10, 2009 at 9:44 am
Instead of spying on some Russian spy smoking a cigarette, residents of Pierce county can feel much safer.
Rack » Oct 10, 2009 at 12:37 pm
They have been doing this for years, in King county at least. I have yet to hear about anyone getting busted, but maybe they feel that the threat of it is enough to discourage some.
Rack » Oct 10, 2009 at 12:46 pm
OOOOHHH I like this comment.
“It’s also a matter of fairness. Those who took out the proper permits, and are paying taxes on the improvements, are basically subsidizing those who did not, Kleeberg said.”
How on earth are they subsidizing anything? They are paying for the services they get while others aren’t paying anything and not getting any services.
You guys are right, the whole good-guy amnesty program is crap. This is an attempt to keep inspectors employed, but I really cannot blame them.
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 1:02 pm
“We are at greater risk of a total meltdown due to a deflationary collapse than we were in 2007″
so we are at greater risk for a deflationary collapse…AFTER one of the biggest deflationary collapses in a long time? that makes zero sense.
AMS » Oct 10, 2009 at 1:21 pm
By pfft @ 7:
Just because an event has happened does not imply that the risk is reduced. It’s not like there is memory to most risks.
We have seen many bank failures after the biggest bank failure in a long time. We have also seen many more after so many have already failed. Yesterday was uneventful, does that mean all banks are healthy?
As long as you have the capacity, you can continue to increase the speed of the free fall.
I know a guy who quit paying a credit card. That was the biggest bill he’d never paid. Next thing I know he quit paying two more. Who knows, maybe next week he will quit paying five or six more. As long as he has ample quantity, one can accelerate on the way down until that sudden stop at the end.
Sure we might have had the biggest deflationary collapses in a long time, but that does not necessarily mean an even bigger one will not happen.
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 4:22 pm
“Sure we might have had the biggest deflationary collapses in a long time, but that does not necessarily mean an even bigger one will not happen.”
what more do the bears want? the stock market is ripping. GDP is will probably be positive real soon. tons of economic indicators are turning up. the biggest corporations and banks went down the tubes, what more do the bears want? the gov’t for better or worse is propping up the banks. the stock market is climbing a wall of worry. the only one’s who believe in this rally is the permabears.
AMS » Oct 10, 2009 at 4:31 pm
RE: pfft @ 9 – I don’t know what more the bears want. That is not the issue. The question you asked was is it possible to have a bigger threat of deflation right after having some deflation.
Using a different example, is it possible to hit a larger iceberg just after having bailed out from hitting one? Sure, as long as a larger iceberg exists. Some people suggested that a bigger calamity is going to hit, and the rapid market run up only supports that position. The claim is that anytime you have an unjustified run up in any market, the bubble might pop.
Put differently, is the market really worth about 40-50% more today than just a few weeks ago? (use SP500 for the market, but I am open to other measures)
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 10, 2009 at 5:27 pm
RE: Rack @ 6 – Our taxation is relative, so someone without permits is paying less tax than they should, and everyone else is making up that revenue through higher taxes. That’s for the county and cities. Some entities (e.g. fire departments and other special levies) are simply losing money.
Scotsman » Oct 10, 2009 at 7:08 pm
RE: pfft @ 9 –
” tons of economic indicators are turning up”
B.S. Name 3.
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 7:47 pm
1. jobs losses have peaked(less bad is good and job losses are a LAGGING indicator, look at the last recession)
2. ted spread way better
3. all the annoying ISM and etc numbers are better
4. ted spreadEDIT:(sorry, repeat) savings rate is much higher giving us room to grow
5. vix was near 90 it’s under 30
6. spread between safe bonds and corporates has come in big time
7. every single technical indicator like dow theory and just about very moving average and crossover is bullish
8. stock market is clearly climbing a wall of worry
9. even paul krugman said the recession probably ended in August.
It’s a postmodern recovery
Given today’s GDP release, which showed the economy contracting slowly in the second quarter, it’s a good bet that the recession has either already ended or will end soon — by which I mean that when the NBER business cycle dating committee retroactively makes its pronouncement of when the recession ended, it will put the date in the 3rd quarter, probably in July or August.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/its-a-postmodern-recovery/
10. I say this all with a staunch record of bearishness. however, it’s looks like we are in a bull market is a bigger bear market.
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 7:50 pm
“Put differently, is the market really worth about 40-50% more today than just a few weeks ago?”
the rally started in march, 7 months ago. it’s the exact opposite of the collapse that preceded it.
AMS » Oct 10, 2009 at 7:53 pm
RE: pfft @ 14 – Is that a yes or no?
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 8:01 pm
it’s a yes.
AMS » Oct 10, 2009 at 8:36 pm
RE: pfft @ 16 – You are of the camp that suggests that the stock market was a bargain when it went down. Do you think the same is true with housing?
pfft » Oct 10, 2009 at 8:54 pm
By AMS @ 17:
yes it was a bargain when it bottomed and started going up. I think the same for housing but only when housing starts going up. I think for most of the country that will probably occur sometime in the next 1-2 years nationally.
my maxims are:
“Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market.”
“There is only one side to the stock market; not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”
-Jesse LIvermore
Scotsman » Oct 11, 2009 at 12:50 am
RE: pfft @ 13 –
B.S.
First we have to throw out every indicator that is based on or measures some aspect of interest rates since there has been so much manipulation and distortion there that the measures are invalid. And to be honest, most of them are measures of effective liquidity (heavily manipulated) not market inputs like consumer or corporate credit demand or, on the lending side, risk assessment. Out in the real world, borrowers aren’t borrowing, and lenders aren’t lending. Check the CRE situation or consumer credit demand if you doubt this. Both are dead.
Unemployment? Give me a break- so we only lost half a million jobs last month according to the government’s birth/death model, a model that has very little to do with reality. Out in the real world where numbers are based on actual survey data the real number of new unemployed was closer to 900,000. In one month. Real unemployment is close to 18% (U-6) by the government’s own admission, but you don’t see that talked about. And while it is a lagging indicator, it really hasn’t even begun to turn the corner, let alone reverse to the point where jobs are being added.
No jobs means no spending. Retail sales are down across the board, auto sales are in the tank, many theorize that what spending is holding on is in part fueled by folks who are no longer paying mortgagees or credit cards and suddenly have more “disposable” income. The same is true for the “savings” numbers also. You realize that a reduction in debt is considered a net gain in savings? That is, If I pay off a credit card the savings number jumps? But do I actually have any savings? No. Debt is not wealth, and less debt is not really savings, but the government counts it as such. What a world.
The stock market? Wall of worry? How about tax payer funded excess bank liquidity and very shallow volume driving prices higher without any connection to earnings or reality? Ah, that’s more like it. A psychological rally/bubble, soon to come to an end. The stock market has never been a reliable indicator of economic fundamentals.
Paul Krugman? Doesn’t he have a Noble Prize? So does Obama, but for what? Krugman’s fifteen minutes of fame should have ended a decade ago, that’s about the last time he was right about anything. The MSM’s favorite puppet is past his experation date.
Long ago I built econometric models of markets- we could never properly account for the psychological factors and consequently the models never worked as well as we would have liked. But in the end, the fundamentals always ruled, and we always got the pricing right, but could never nail down the timing. Not much has changed- we know how this ends, but can’t say when. But the pricing aspects say this is clearly not the bottom.
Scotsman » Oct 11, 2009 at 1:09 am
Here’s some indisputable reality, a true measure of economic activity- sales tax receipts. Does this look like “a small contraction in GDP?”
Bellingham Herald: OLYMPIA, Wash. The state Department of Revenue says second quarter taxable retail sales are down a record amount in Washington, when compared to the second quarter of 2008.
Statewide taxable retail sales fell 14 percent when compared to the April to June period of 2008.
For the state of Georgia:
Ind. income tax receipts down 14.2%
Corp. ” ” ” down 13.2%
Sales and Use taxes down 11.4%
Fiscal year to date down 13.9%
10 consecutive months of declining revenues
And a ton of additional good news about WA and others:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/10/three-washington-state-stories-reflect.html
And some people think housing has hit a bottom?????
pfft » Oct 11, 2009 at 9:49 am
Obama brought hope back to the world, that’s why they gave him the nobel prize.
pfft » Oct 11, 2009 at 8:14 pm
“First we have to throw out every indicator that is based on or measures some aspect of interest rates since there has been so much manipulation and distortion there that the measures are invalid.”
sorry, that’s way to easy to assert and not back up.
“Unemployment?”
lagging indicator. next.
“No jobs means no spending.”
nobody is spending? NOBODY?
“The stock market? Wall of worry?”
yep, as evidenced by every finance website I go to.
“Paul Krugman?”
regardless of your political affilitations I think we can all at least agree that Krugman knows when a recession has ended.
“But the pricing aspects say this is clearly not the bottom.”
the stock market, tons of technicals and the dow theory disagree.
“Here’s some indisputable reality, a true measure of economic activity- sales tax receipts.”
lagging indicator?
Kary L. Krismer » Oct 12, 2009 at 10:44 am
RE: pfft @ 22 – I don’t think Krugman would say he knows when a recession has ended, at least if you go by the so-called “official” announcer of such things. He has said he suspects we’re already past the date that they’ll determine, but I haven’t seen him say anything with certainty.