RE: Interloper @ 7 –

Better to RENT in a sideways market and put your money into short-term CDs that have high yields.

And what CDs are those? I can’t find much better than 2%.

Trying to catch the EXACT bottom of the market rebound is never smart, either. Chances are that the rebound could be a fake rebound and you are trying to catch a falling knife. Be safe and buy back in when the market is obviously in a long-term upswing. A sidways market is not good to invest in, either, as you are paying large amounts of mortgage debt without receiving compounded interest on that money. Better to RENT in a sideways market and put your money into short-term CDs that have high yields.

But you can usually find some great bargains on parkas and sweaters in May, and shorts in November…

It is true that houses look less appealing in the winter, especially around here. People don’t want to go house hunting when it’s 38 degrees out and raining, and those listing photos of the trees flowering and sun shining don’t look anything like the house with the gray skies and lifeless branches.

Fall and winter is the BEST time to evaluate the amount of natural light in a home on cloudy days.

Isn’t your view generally better in the winter? Less leaves etc?

Yes, I’d take that for 50K.

You just gave me a great investment idea Softwarengineer. And I’d like my FEMA bailout money in cash please. I’m willing to buy for 50K contingent on a FEMA flood policy for full replacement cost in place at closing. I’d be prayin for rain and hoping for a total loss. It’s almost like the plot to the “Producers.” I’d imagine FEMA even prefers that I not rebuild. The worst that could happen is if it was only damaged and I had to fix a trashed and flooded house. That mess wouldn’t be worth it. But if it was totally destroyed it would probably be the best investment I ever made. Maybe I could start an investment pool like Mastro and make some money for myself even if the flood thing never pays off. Maybe call it “High Water Investments, LLC.” See you at the upcoming Green River open houses guys. Who says you can’t make money in real estate anymore.;-)

The major flooding this year causing massive valley house destruction has a 30% probability rate….

Would any of you buy now in the Green River valley, even if $400K homes went for $50K?

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1926503,00.html?iid=tsmodule

My thoughts too. Seattle area house prices are still relatively insane. What are we now, behind only NYC and SFO?

Another downside is that if a view is part of what you value in a home, you don’t have a very good chance of seeing the mountains exposed on a winter day.

Generally I’d say, start looking in the winter but be ready to wait until April.

Should they just start walkin to ‘For Sale’ open-houses with or without an agent?

Yes! Before we bought, we had decided to stay in the immediate neighborhood. So over the next year, we would drop in to every open house, without an agent, just to look around and get a feel for the type/quality of the house and how that related to price. As a result, when we began to shop seriously, we were able to make well informed decisions as to value. As a result, we relied less on the word of our agent. Not that we didn’t trust him, but there is no substitute for personal judgment;

so Tim are you saying “Now is a good time to buy”?

lol

Yes, without a doubt pouring rain does assist Buyers in finding so many problems that does NOT ordinarily appear in the summer.

Find your GEM in the coming years and avoid ALL multiple offer scenarios.

How you choose to play your hand will dictate your results. Be aggressive and make your offers according to market conditions which remain a deteriorating asset environment. Make your Agents work for you!!

If there were a true seasonality where bargains were to be had, it seems that investors would swoop in and extract the value.

After (if) the homebuyer tax credit expires, I believe we will see Seattle house prices fall toward their final bottom, at least another 10%.

*Next* winter should be an even better time to buy.

Maybe it’s just me, but if a house has been up for more than 90 days and hasn’t seen a big price reduction I usually think of the seller as stubborn, and trying to negotiate a probable waste of time.

I agree with your other thoughts though, especially getting to actually experience first hand the weather proofing, heating, etc.

I wrote about this before, but during that really heavy storm two years ago, we had one listing that we weren’t concerned at all about, because it was on a hill. Unfortunately there were about three design flaws (bad flow control from alley at driveway, bad landscaping and bad residue free gutters) which led to a lot of water forming around the house and getting into the very nicely finished basement and ruining a lot of woodwork.

Anyway, it was new construction. Sometimes tried and true is a lot better than new.

Two of Tim’s points are especially good. Between Thanksgiving and Xmas there is relatively little showing activity, and that makes sellers nervous. Also the water issue concern is real. During August many problems with water might not be apparent.