Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don’t have to.
Here’s a link to this month’s NWMLS press release: Western Washington pending home sales mark best December since 2006
“Home for the holidays” took on special meaning for 4,399 buyers whose purchase offers were accepted during December, according to the latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That volume of pending sales was up more than 35 percent from a year ago and marked the best December since 2006.
Take special note of the focus on the totally unreliable measure of pending sales in the headline and lead paragraph in this news release. You’ll be seeing a lot more of that spin repeated in the following articles. This was my favorite part of the release though (emphasis mine).
“Affordability has never been better,” said Dick Fulton, a past chairman of the NWMLS board of directors whose career spans more than two decades.
Bzzt, wrong. The following chart is updated through Q1, and the affordability situation hasn’t changed much since then, coming in at 97.0 based on December’s data.
“Affordability has never been better” only for values of “never” that exclude almost every year prior to 2003.
Click below for this month’s roundup of real estate reporting, or the lack thereof.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Home sales on King County’s Eastside lead December activity
Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said he was “pleasantly surprised” by the December sales volumes throughout Western Washington.
He had anticipated a bigger drop from November, when many first-time buyers rushed to close to meet a deadline — later extended — to qualify for an $8,000 federal tax credit. In King County, the month-to-month decline was just 7 percent.
As for the strong sales on the Eastside, Crellin speculated they may be fueled in part by sellers with mounting financial troubles who now are willing to accept lower prices than a few months ago.
“I suspect there is some bargain-hunting going on in those neighborhoods,” Crellin said of Kirkland and Redmond.
As I noted yesterday, between 2000 and 2008 closed sales increased an average of 1.85% between November and December, so a month-to-month decline of 7% still represents about 140 fewer sales than we may have expected to see had we followed the historical trend for this time of year. That said, I’m sure that some of the fall off we would have expected to see was mitigated by the extension of the tax credit. Without the extension we probably would have seen a month-to-month drop in excess of 10%.
The Northwest Multiple Listing Service showed pending sales of condominiums and single-family homes in King County – a key indicator of recent activity in the housing market – were down 10.93 percent in December compared with a month earlier.
Activity generally slows as the holidays approach. While 2009 was no different, the drop in pending home sales countywide was the smallest since at least 2001. Since 2002, pending home sales have declined an average of 22.98 percent November to December.
In Seattle, pending sales were down 12.16 percent from November, but up 32.7 percent from a year ago.
If pending sales were being measured in the same way that they had been up until 2008, these types of comparisons would be more meaningful. As it is, there is a well-demonstrated disconnect between the current measure of pending sales and actual closings that makes looking at pending sales little more than an amusing distraction.
Home sales in Snohomish County increased significantly in December and strong pending sales gave agents hope for the new year.
There were 779 homes sold in the county last month, a 78 percent increase in comparison to a year ago. Pending sales, those that begin last month and should close in January, were up 31 percent, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Tuesday.
…
The local home sales were in distinct contrast with the national figures released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, which showed a sharp drop in November sales of existing homes. The sales of new homes are reported separately by the national group.
In addition to also taking the NWMLS bait and focusing on the useless pending sales numbers, Benbow also makes the same bizarre mistake that was made (and later corrected) by the SeattlePI.com writer yesterday. Comparing the national month-to-month data from October to November with the Seattle area month-to-month data from November to December is completely nonsensical under normal circumstances, but with the fake November expiration of the tax credit thrown into the mix it becomes even more foolish. So much for journalism.
C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune:
Puyallup Realtor and president of Washington Realtors Bill Riley was fully attentive and simply pleased Tuesday at numbers released by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
“This is good,” he said, pointing to a figure showing pending home sales in Pierce County in December were up 30.19 percent over the same month in 2008.
“That’s good news,” he said. “Any time pending sales are up 30 percent, you have to pay attention.”
Again with the pending sales. What a waste.
The Thurston County real estate market finished on a high note in December after a year that was characterized by fewer home sales, falling prices and foreclosures.
Instead, home sales surged nearly 30 percent in the final month of 2009, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.
Last month, 226 homes sold compared with 174 in the same month a year ago, an increase of 29.8 percent, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. Although more homes sold in December 2009 than in December 2008, fewer homes sold last month than the 277 units that sold in November 2009.
It isn’t stated explicitly in the article, but those are actual closed sales numbers. Kudos to Rolf Boone for ignoring the nonsense pending hype and looking at the actual hard data this month.
Here are a few bonus stories from local TV and radio:
Meg Coyle, KING 5: Home sales above average in King County
Bellamy Pailthorp, KPLU: Home Sales Still Going Strong in December
Tracy Ellis, KGMI (Bellingham): County Sees Home Sales Increase For 2009
Regarding that KING 5 headline, in December 2009 there were 1,462 closed SFH sales in King County and 1,413 pending sales. The 2000-2008 average closed and pendings for December are 1,862 and 1,486, respectively (and the pending numbers aren’t really comparable). So no, home sales are not “above average.” Sorry.
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.05.2010)
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.06.2010)
(Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I, 01.05.2010)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 01.06.2010)
(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.06.2010)
(Rolf Boone, Olympian, 01.06.2010)
But it’s hard to imagine a news story with the headline ” Home sales slightly less grim this month.”
The real estate sales guys do what they always do, push their product. You seem to be much too excited about it Take a deep breath, Thee.
If you take a 3-month rolling average of closed sales and apply it to units available for sale, you will see that inventory is low and that’s just about as plain and true as it gets.
By 2kt @ 2:
Yes. inventory is low. as it always is in December. In other news, the sun is expected to rise tomorrow.
In other news, the sun is expected to rise tomorrow.
Yes, they call it deejawho, don’t they.
The Tim,
What has been the ratio of pending sales prior month to closed sales next month over the past few months?
If I recall, it has been around 90% +/- which is a big change from earlier last year, where it is has been around 70% or below.
How is this explained?
If houses are not affordable based on stats then how are people buying houses? Are there still exotic loans being used or other crazy financing? Or is it just a small percentage of people that have been waiting and are now willing to part with their savings.
RE: waitingforseattletocool @ 5 – For a variety of reasons, most of this year the offset between pending sales and closed sales has been more like 2 months. Look at the raw plot of both series:
There’s a pretty clear 2-month delay between the pattern seen in pending sales and what we see in closed sales.
Just FYI, The Tim. For your red-green colorblind readers, the colors in the above chart are virtually the same. I really have to strain to tell the difference.
RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 8 – Sorry about that. I have updated it with different symbols on each line to help distinguish them. The old image may be in your browser’s cache though.
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 1 –
LOL Ira
IMO though, had the PI [or any of the other doomed newspapers and magazines] done just that, perhaps they’d still be selling papers.
When mainstream media left the little guy, they forgot we buy the papers.
“That’s good news,” he said. “Any time pending sales are up 30 percent, you have to pay attention.”
Geeze what a rough group here………………….30% ..Bubbleheads want 80%!
I’ll settle for anything but down down down.
BTW Tim, my bet with Ira is in the home stretch and I must Buy him lunch at ClaimJumper if you are not under contract . Please tell me you have submitted an offer and its awaiting seller acceptance or you have an offer in on a short sale thats Pending Approval. This "golly" Obama bounce I know cost me my bet with Ira. I know you were on the brink last May…….
I have less then 30 days !
RE: Ray Pepper @ 11 – Yeah, doesn’t look like there’s much chance of you winning the bet.
LOL, methinks Ray will have the last laugh, provided he knows better than to actually eat anything.
I disregarded the many warnings I’d heard and ate there once. Half an hour later the cramps set in. It was like a knife in the gut. Soon I was doubled over in the financial section of Borders, my face contorted in a rictus of agony. People probably just figured I’d accidentally glanced at one of Cramer’s books.
RE: Ray Pepper @ 11 – Either way, you’ll get to take a trip to your favorite restaurant. My guess is that you, Ray, will be the one paying…
RE: CCG @ 13 –
Ha! If I win this bet it will not be acceptable for Ray to pay for my meal while he sits there, watching me while I eat and get sick. If sickness happens, we’re going to have to share the pain.
RE: CCG @ 13 –
” rictus ” Nice- I had to look that up- ya learn something every day @ Seattle Bubble.
RE: The Tim @ 7 –
“There’s a pretty clear 2-month delay between the pattern seen in pending sales and what we see in closed sales. ”
Up until the last couple months, correct?
My question is what has happened the past two months that the pending and closed are so close, more in line with prior years?
Did anybody here catch the bottom?
RE: wakeup @ 18 – No, and what’s worse – now they’re all priced out forever.
RE: CCG @ 13 –
Now that is very very funny. I eat at Claim Jumper about twice a month and many times I do have terrible cramps. I narrowed it down to the rich Gouda Cheese and the Dressing on the Gold Rush Chicken. My cramps were so bad last time I barely made it home in time with a completely drenched bald head. Glad to hear I’m not alone!
Appears I have more time then I thought with a March 24 deadline. I believe Tim is a Cash Buyer and can close in less then 10 days anyway. Looks like payoff date is March 14……………………….unless of course you are not a cash buyer Tim…………….
RE: Ray Pepper @ 20 – I’d say you lost the moment you made the bet, but the payout could be delayed a year, cash buyer or not.
RE: AMS @ 21 –
Payout can be delayed, but interest and penalties will accrue from day one.
Besides, who would possibly want to delay having lunch with me?
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 22 – Oh, maybe Ray intentionally tricked you into only paying for lunch. There are some people who charge much high fees fees!
I am sure the lunch is going to be worth double, probably more, than Ray pays…
Actually, lunch with Ray would be interesting too. The only thing is he seeks too many low end deals. I’d wonder if he won’t try to save a buck and only order a salad. You know, eat a big meal before arriving, and then suggest he’s trying to stay healthy after hearing about all the problems with the food quality…
lol
RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 19 –
+10 ;-)
RE: Ray Pepper @ 20 –
“I eat at Claim Jumper about twice a month and many times I do have terrible cramps.”
OK, I give up- why do you keep going back? The waitress, your momma, flat learning curve? I must admit, I’ve never been there, but the likelihood of it ever happening is dropping fast. ;-)
RE: Scotsman @ 25 –
You know how Ivars for years used ” Keep Clam” as their motto?
Claim Jumper uses ” You might not get sick here” as theirs.
RE: AMS @ 23 –
Maybe he’ll find a GEM* on his plate!
* Greasy Edible Morsel
You have to buy Ira the ORE CART, and he has to finish it.
"golly" you guys are all too funny! Its my favorite restaurant and my family even enjoyed Thanksgiving there this year. I just want to convey one more story about ClaimJumper SouthCenter.
I play in a Boeing basketball league on Thursday Nights and from time to time we eat at Claim Jumper. One of the players is Big Al who is about 325 pounds. Al left 15 minutes early one night and we said good bye to him. Anyway as I went to leave I suddenly got the cramps and immediately went to the restroom not wanting to hit I 5 for 20 minutes because I knew I wouldn’t make it home.
As I walked into the bathroom I heard splattery sounds from stall 2. I began to laugh to myself knowing it was about to happen to me. Anyway the splattering sounds continued and then I began to hear grunting. Right when I heard the grunting I knew it was Al. I looked down and saw his big shoes and could only imagine how cramped he was in there. I said Al, are you OK?…He said ” Ray, I don’t know what the hell I ate but I can’t seem to get up and leave.” “Each time I get up, I feel like I’m gonna saturate myself.” I began to laugh and said Al this happens to me here as well. Anyway, I was in there about 5 minutes trying to not laugh but with all his exploding sounds I told myself I gotta get outta here because I felt really bad for him and I simply could NOT control my laughing. A week later at basketball Al came up to me and said he was in the bathroom just over an hour that night and he will never eat there again.
Reading CCG’s comments at 13 really hit home to me and I find it hilarious.
Yes, this thread has been a real knee slapper, with Rays at #29 being the best!
A great rectus yarn.
And rictus was a new one for me too!
On the topic of reporting, I have a new theory as to why much reporting is so bad, and it’s related to GPS devices.
I have a rather good sense of direction. As I kid I grew up in a very wooded area and had a dirt bike. I could go riding off in any direction, find a new trail, and find my way back. But today, if I’m in my car using a GPS to get to a location, I don’t learn how to get there, and often need GPS aid to get back. I might need to use the GPS 2-3 more times to get there, where if I simply memorized the directions prior to leaving I’d be fine the first trip and every trip after.
I’m beginning to think reporters are much the same way. They spent much of November following the news of the possible extension of the tax credit, but then when it comes to reporting on the November pendings, they totally forgot what happened in November. Perhaps it’s because they’re so busy reporting the news they don’t follow the news? This is probably particularly true for news anchors, but perhaps it’s true beyond that small group.
By Ray Pepper @ 29:
There’s no end to the things we disagree about. I only ate at CJ once, and the only thing that was worth eating was the salad. I sent everything else back and told them not to bother to try to fix it, something I’ve never done anywhere else. Fortunately the salad was big enough that it filled me up.
Anyway, when it comes to restaurants, I prefer quality over quantity, and generally avoid chains. For example, you have to drag me kicking and screaming into Olive Garden, but I like to go to Machiavelli (sp?) in downtown. I just don’t get out to eat at places like that enough!
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32 –
Elitist Snob! HaHaHa!
RE: mark @ 33 – LOL, on many levels. Apparently you’ve never seen Machiavelli! ;-)
Machiavelli: http://machiavellis.com/dining.html
Basically family Italian.
RE: rent for now @ 28 –
I probably could finish the ore cart. I have a history of being successful in competitive eating, having once eaten an entire 17 inch pizza in four minutes and thirty seconds.
But I won’t finish an ore cart unless there is substantial extra cash involved.
I may be a pretty good real estate agent, but I’m a world class eater.
RE: Scotsman @ 27 – LOL. More like a GEM when you get home in the porcelain daddy. :)
All this talk about bad food, toilets and real estate…
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32 –
Kary I don’t eat alot of Italian (unless you consider Pagliacci,Pietros,Straw Hat, and Lil Caesars Italian) or I blow up like a balloon with all those carbs. Machiavelli is definitely not my speed but I think I do have a fine Italian dining establishment we could agree on…..I eat there about once a month and always marvel at the simple elegance.
http://www.osf.com/
RE: Ray Pepper @ 39 – Ray wouldn’t call that Italian. More like italianish. Mama Melinas in the U is Italian.
RE: mukoh @ 40 –
Yeah. Mamma Melina is my favorite. It’s hard to find real Italian in Seattle. I’m tired of this American pepperoni and “italian” sausage pizza. Tutta Bella is the only place where you can get “Quattro Stagioni” or “Funghi e Prosciutto”.
ok, time for lunch ;)
By Ira Sacharoff @ 15:
Heh I’d recommend a salad. My g/f went with a steak and baked potato, which should have been innocuous enough, and she too was, um, unhappy that evening. Best of luck to both of you.
Two things:
1. The next SB roundup should be at CJ
2. The only good things at CJ are the cocktails.
By Kary L. Krismer @ 32:
Never seen that place. I’ll have to try it as I’ve never had Chicken Milanese before.
I probably don’t need to say it, but if you’re in Redmond be sure to check out Sages, Tropea, or Firenze. Apparently there’s a tradition here of hiding Italian restaurants in strip malls and condo buildings.
RE: HappyRenter @ 41 –
Tutta Bella is good. But Flying Squirrel Pizza near Seward Park is even better.
Old Spaghetti Factory is one of those fun, festive places that gives you large portions of mediocre food at reasonable prices. Good place to take kids. But authentic? Nah. More like ” Italian cooked by Norwegians”.
Another one of those fun, festive places serving massive portions is Buca Di Beppo.
I tend to avoid the fun, festive places. Not because I’m a high falootin’ elitist. More that I’m a snarly crank who just gets turned off by these overly cheerful waitpeople who come to your table and sing happy birthday.
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 45 – Flying Squirrel Pizza, which is closer to Genesee Park, is great during the summer, when you can just sit out on the patio. I always stay on high alert when in and around the Genesee & Rainier area. I’ve never had any bad food at Flying Squirrel Pizza, and they have Molly Moon’s Ice Cream.
RE: AMS @ 46 –
I know that it’s closer to Genessee Park, but I think most of the folks here haven’t even heard of Genessee Park, except for maybe a few dog owners. A lot of people think you’ll get stabbed and mugged as soon as you’re south of Jackson Street. But even if you did, isn’t it worth it for good pizza?
I too have never had any bad food at Flying Squirrel Pizza, and have had some amazing food there. The place does get crowded though. It pays to get there at off hours, like when they open @ 5PM or closer to closing time.
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 47 – I am not familiar with Genessee Park…
But, the park I am familiar with, on the same street of the same name (S Genesee St), is where the small plane landed:
http://spdblotter.seattle.gov/2009/05/25/small-plane-lands-in-genesee-park/
Flying Squirrel is located at 4920 S Genesee St.
http://www.flyingsquirrelpizza.com/
[...] and noted he expects to see this momentum continue in the coming months.At least they dropped the lie from last month that “affordability has never been better.” Now it’s just “great [...]