Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

15 responses to “Four More Washington Banks on the Unofficial Problem Bank List”

  1. AMS

    26 troubled banks

    I am too lazy to check each case out, so I am going to guess a general failure rate of 1/3, maybe a bit more.

    That’s 9+, rounded to the closest integral number.

    I’m also going to guess that some of the non-troubled banks get moved to the troubled bank list, but I am not sure how many.

    This is all just a wild guess.

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  2. Notorious ART

    It’s going to get ugly…..

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  3. Scotsman

    Might get rough out there. Thank goodness the FDIC has it’s fiscal house in order and will be able to back-stop any failures that do occur. What?! The FDIC is a figment of the peoples imagination? It too is broke? Oh boy…

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  4. AMS

    RE: Scotsman @ 3 – It’s a good think FDIC can borrow from the US Treasury? We all know things are in good order there.

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  5. LN e

    In arguing that this cycle is not like the Great Depression, some have pointed out that ~10,000 banks failed after the crash of ’29 and that many less have failed (to date) in this cycle. I’m curious if anyone has seen data indicating what percentage of the total number of banks in existance at time that would represent. It would also be interesting to know what percentage of all bank deposits were held by those 10,000 banks as compared to the percent of all bank deposits held by banks currently on the list of troubled banks.

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  6. george

    2010 will be the year of bank failures in Washington State. Others that had C&D orders and were required to raise capital have not done so and the dates have lapsed for raising that capital. I think the reason you are not seeing more bank failures is the overall size of the problem in Washington State and the fact that the FDIC, I suspect, is having problems finding receiver banks. Our best community bank is Washington Federal and they were the receiver bank for Horizon they can’t keep doing that. The FDIC needs to get this done and over with so things don’t drag out. Most of the bad assets are partially completed lots, homes or condominium projects which are very hard to sell. A foreclosed home has a value, a foreclosed partially finished lot development that is about to lose its vesting has no value and is a liability. This is the problem for Washington Banks.

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  7. Dave0

    Anyone know of a similar list for credit unions? I’m curious as to how credit unions are holding up. Are 37% of assets in credit unions in trouble as well? Is that percentage lower or higher when you look at credit unions?

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  8. mukoh

    RE: Dave0 @ 7 – Credit unions are not i as bad of a position as banks. Most local banks as mentioned before were in the commercial, development, construction aspect. The assets on their books in those areas have taken hits of up to 60%.

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  9. Lake Hills Renter

    That’s one large pie chart.

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  10. Kary L. Krismer

    By Lake Hills Renter @ 9:

    That’s one large pie chart.

    And not nearly as complex as most of the charts here. Probably the only chart I’ve seen here that could be replaced by a single sentence. ;-)

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  11. AMS

    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 9RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 10 – Be nice; that pie chart covers the entire state!

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  12. patient

    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 9 – Now,now a large problem deserves a large pie chart.

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  13. mukoh

    My bet is on Sterling to be next unfortunately.

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  14. Jillayne

    DavidO my credit union students tell me that they’re doing loan mods like mad right now. Extend and pretend.

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