Poll: National Economic Crisis: Which Inning are We In?

For reference, we last tackled this question here in March 2008, when 58% of poll voters selected the 3rd inning or earlier.

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

National Economic Crisis: Which Inning are We In?

  • 1st Inning (9%, 14 Votes)
  • 2nd Inning (8%, 12 Votes)
  • 3rd Inning (17%, 26 Votes)
  • 4th Inning (13%, 20 Votes)
  • 5th Inning (15%, 22 Votes)
  • 6th Inning (19%, 28 Votes)
  • 7th Inning (13%, 19 Votes)
  • 8th Inning (2%, 3 Votes)
  • 9th Inning (4%, 7 Votes)

Total Voters: 151


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 01.30.2010.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

26 comments:

  1. 1
    MEDIC says:

    You might want to view the crash course before responding to this poll.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    softwarengineer says:

    When You Mitigate Unemployment

    We’re past the 3rd inning.

    When you include our recent horrifying unemployment [the real unemployment BTW] as the basis for a recovery [and don’t give me that lagging indicator BS], we haven’t even finished the 1st inning.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    AMS says:

    Will there be extra innings?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    David Losh says:

    RE: MEDIC @ 1

    Great course for the 1970s. No one was listening then, and no one is listening now.

    Oil is still a commodity all of these years later. People are talking about oil, and population, but nothing is being done, or addressed.

    We are talking about financing, and how we can help the very wealthy retain what they have. Some how there is a clinging belief in the trickle down theory, even though it has been proven wrong.

    The banking and financial markets do nothing, build nothing, contribute nothing, but every one here wants to figure out how to give these people more money to play with.

    We are in the 9th Inning. In the next decade every one will be paying for another New Deal. How are you going to pay? What are you going to do to make the money you owe? Even if you are only a tax payer, you owe that debt. How are you going to pay?

    You did nothing for thirty years. You collected your pay check, and went shopping for new golf clubs. There is no more Social Security, your 401K will be gutted, your IRA was somebody else’s idea to get you to give them money, so now what?

    Now I know what you are thinking. You’re thinking this is more doom and gloom. Actually we are in the best time economically we could ever be in. You’re going to have to do something. It’s no longer business as usual.

    My solution is community owned business with the proceeds funnelled outside of the United States. We figure on retiring in Southern Spain.

    What’s your dream? What’s your solution? What will you be doing for yourself and your family now that the government is tapped out? Your employer is going to be cashing in. There’s more money to be made elsewhere. Now that you have these mega corporations are they going to take care of you?

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  5. 5

    RE: AMS @ 3
    Might be extra innings. We’ve got a one run lead, but they’ve got the bases loaded, there’s nobody out, and we’ve just brought into pitch the guy who leads the majors in wild pitches.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    mukoh says:

    RE: David Losh @ 4 – Pass all of us whatever it is you take. It must be great. Especially using words like funneling outside the country etc. LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    softwarengineer says:

    Another One Bites the Dust in Seattle

    This time its Evergreen Bank.

    http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100123/D9DD6LEG0.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    Scotsman says:

    RE: AMS @ 3

    Please, no extra innings! It’s raining, the concrete benches are getting harder by the minute and our team is a comedy of inexperience and errors.

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  9. 9
    AMS says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 8 – pfft is going to pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth to push us into extra innings? I didn’t check the schedule, are we playing a doubleheader?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    EconE says:

    RE: AMS @ 9

    Double Header?

    I thought this was a global economic crisis.

    World Series!

    Seven Games!

    Who care’s what inning we’re in when we’ve got six more games?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    EconE says:

    *cares

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: David Losh @ 4

    David, do you have any kids? If yes, what do you tell them?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    David Losh says:

    RE: mukoh @ 6

    You make no sense.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    David Losh says:

    RE: HappyRenter @ 12

    I do have kids, and I tell them the world is a big place. There’s a lot of opportunity outside of the United States and in thier generation they will be doing business globally.

    Look at China, and Russia as Communist countries. Across Northern Africa and into Asia is Islamic. South America has pushed a Socialist agenda, come to think of it, England is Socialist also.

    At some point they will have to be able to negotiate culturally as well as financially. As I said my interest is in community owned business.

    What’s your dream?

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  15. 15
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: David Losh @ 14

    I’m a researcher. The US offers a lot of different funding opportunities for research in a biomedical field. I miss however the social infrastructure present in Europe. I ask myself whether the US is a good country to raise children. But this is a different topic leading away from RE even if RE also influences quality of life.

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  16. 16
    HappyRenter says:

    RE: David Losh @ 14

    Can you please make an example of what a community owned business could be?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    Sniglet says:

    There’s a lot of opportunity outside of the United States and in thier generation they will be doing business globally.

    Certainly there are opportunities abroad. However, America will continue to be one of the best places to do business for many decades to come. What I think a lot of people lose sight of is that this depression will be just as, if not more, severe in other nations. The amount of mal-investments and loose-lending that has taken place from Eastern Europe and Brazil, to China and India is just staggering. Even countries like Australia, which have avoided much of the depression so far, will suffer greatly when the great wave of deflation hits commidities.

    As far as counting the innings goes, it all depends on when you start the counting. From some perspectives, we began a negative economic cycle starting in 2000. One can certainly say that asset prices have gone almost nowhere in about a decade now, with sovereign debt having out-performed almost everything else.

    Just how would one have counted the innings of the great depression? Was the second or third inning getting started at the end of 1930 when stocks took their second (and more dire) crash? Was the final inning over when the US entered the war in 1941? Or was the depression not really over until 1948, when equity markets actually began to regain some ground?

    I believe we are just now going to start entering the most dramatic part of the decline into an outright depression, but I don’t expect the “final” bottom to be struck until 2014 (give or take a year or so). It will be many years after that before the average person feels as if things have recovered.

    What inning is Japan’s recession in? They’ve been in a down-spiral since 1989, and still haven’t pulled out of it. I think they still have another good 10 or 15 years of tough sledding before they begin a real recovery.

    Perhaps everyone has started to think in far too short a time-span. One or two quarters (or even a year) of “growth” don’t indicate that secular bearish economic trends have turned. The same is true in reverse. In long-term bullish economic cycles (lasting 40 to 70 years), you can have periodic resets, experiencing contractions lasting a year or two, that really don’t change the fact that the over-all economic environment is still bullish and expansionary.

    So, depending on how you count we are either entering the 3rd inning (if the bearish cycle began in 2000) or just ending the 1st (if you start counting from 2007). In either case, we won’t see any type of durable recovery even begin for a good five years, and even then the growth may be sow imperceptably slow that few people will even notice things have gotten better for another 10 years.

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  18. 18
    Snigliastic says:

    RE: Sniglet @ 17
    We need more of you, Michael.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    AMS says:

    RE: EconE @ 10 – I’m making a fresh batch of caramel popcorn.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    David Losh says:

    RE: MEDIC @ 1

    OK, I finished all of the 3hrs and it is the same presentation from the 1970s. The dot com, housing, and credit bubbles are new, but the message is still the same. It’s worth watching and is the basis for most of the stuff I talk about in my comments.

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  21. 21
    Sniglet says:

    We need more of you, Michael.

    Sorry, but I have just been too busy in the last few months to participate in forum discussions as much as I used to.

    That said, I am always available to chat about the economy LIVE every Tuesday at 9:00pm (Pacific Time) on my internet radio show. Give my friends and I a call this week!

    http://surkanstance.blogspot.com/2009/11/introducing-optimistic-bear-weekly.html

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  22. 22
    David Losh says:

    RE: HappyRenter @ 16RE: HappyRenter @ 15

    We talk about where to raise the kids. Our advantage is that we have a very close extended family that sees each other often.

    As for the community based business,

    Let’s take a hypothetical business such as house cleaning. Any one can do it, few people want to. It is however a cash daily business with a very low over head. You can pay bills or pool the money for other investment. Let’s say some one wants to buy a truck, lawn mower, and blower. The community invests in that truck with an understanding they will get a return. It’s another cash daily business, with the asset of the truck, and it continues to grow, more money can be pooled.

    Doctors do it with clinics, lawyers do it with law practices, and banks are formed under a similar understanding. You could do it in your community with an almost pure barter system. Any cash, or reserves, can be reinvested.

    Now if you want to get real creative you could take over some one’s home and make the mortgage payments. You could move in a bunch of people, rent rooms, and pay down the principle balance, quickly. You could expand the community into more housing units, commercial space, ware house, buy more vehicles, make more loans.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. 23
    Eleua says:

    Top of the 3rd inning…of the first game of a double header.

    The second game doesn’t even start until the bond market crashes. That’s the real fun.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    Jonnny says:

    RE: AMS @ 3 – are we sure this is baseball?

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  25. 25
    David Losh says:

    RE: Eleua @ 23

    Bond market won’t crash. We have a stop gap measure for default here in the United States that’s being used now, the government flooded the economic system with dollars.

    We’ll see what the State of the Union address sounds like, but it had better include a pay back of debt, lower military spending, and restructure of the entitlement programs of Social Security, and Medicare.

    It’s that simple. Wiil it happen? Probably not, but it is possible.

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  26. 26

    RE: Jonnny @ 24
    Oh yeah. There sure seem to be a lot of foul balls.

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