Reporting Roundup: Mixed Messages Around the Sound

Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don’t have to.

Here’s a link to this month’s NWMLS press release: Northwest MLS members report 28 percent increase in pending sales from year ago

“More certainty” and “more stability” in the market contributed to a boost in activity during January, according to officials from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Brokers reported an increase of nearly 27 percent in pending sales (purchase offers made and accepted, but not yet closed) from December and a 28 percent jump from twelve months ago.

Two other indicators of activity fell — inventory and sales prices. There were 3,915 fewer active listings of single family homes and condominiums in the MLS system compared to a year ago, a drop of about 10.3 percent. Sales prices area-wide for January’s closed sales declined about 4.8 percent from year-ago figures. (The NWMLS service area covers 21 counties.)

“We anticipated there would be improved sales in the first-time buyer market and are encouraged to see activity gaining ground in the higher price ranges as well,” observed NWMLS director Joe Spencer, the president and COO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He cites historically low interest rates, great affordability, and the home buyer tax credits as factors for “helping push us into a more stable market,” and noted he expects to see this momentum continue in the coming months.

At least they dropped the lie from last month that “affordability has never been better.” Now it’s just “great affordability.”

[NWMLS director Dick] Beeson said the fast-approaching tax credit deadline is expected to boost activity in the next few months. “This year will be better than last because of more certainty in the market,” he remarked.

Certainty that the government is going to end their 2009 programs to prop up prices? I can see February through April being better, but if the Fed’s MBS purchases really end and no new tax credit is enacted, I think there is a distinct possibility that sales will drop to frigid levels again, pushing prices even further down.

Click below for this month’s roundup of real estate reporting, or the lack thereof.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Median price of homes rises in Seattle, keeps dropping in suburbs

Home prices in the city of Seattle rose in January for the first time in nearly two years while they continued to fall in the rest of King County, according to one closely watched measure.

The median price of a house that sold in Seattle last month was $415,000, up from $400,000 in January 2009, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service said Thursday.
…
“Now that profit is no longer a given in people’s minds when buying a home, buyers are realigning their priorities,” Tim Ellis, editor of the Seattlebubble real-estate blog, said in an e-mail.

“They are less likely to ‘drive till you qualify’ when they realize that they probably won’t be able to sell that far-flung home in a few years for tens or hundreds of thousands more than they paid and then move to the neighborhood they really wanted to live in in the first place,” Ellis said.

I shared my take on the divergence in price patterns between the close-in neighborhoods and the outer suburbs with Eric via email.

Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I: Seattle home prices up for first time since March 2008

Home prices in Seattle were up 2.63 percent in January compared with a year ago – the first such rise since March 2008 – according to the latest numbers from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
The uptick in prices and activity, along with a drop in inventory, indicates a stabilizing market.

“For several months now we’ve been seeing stabilization in all of the home price measures as inventory is pulled down,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, in a Tuesday news release. Yun was talking about the national market, and the Seattle market recently has lagged behind the national trend by several months.

In King County, pending sales – a good indicator of market health – continued their upward trend in January but prices didn’t follow.

Wow, quoting Lawrence Yun and calling pending sales a “good indicator.” Double-fail.

Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Prices drive spike in home sales

People bought more homes in Snohomish County in January as prices continued to fall.

Pending sales, deals made in January that didn’t close, climbed 42 percent last month and closed sales weren’t far behind, climbing 37.9 percent, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Thursday. There were 949 pending sales last month and 495 completed sales, the listing service reported.

“The market has definitely picked up, with more interest and action by buyers,” said Dick Beeson, a Windermere owner/broker in Tacoma. “Sellers are expecting better results this year than last year, but not necessarily higher prices.”

Why shouldn’t they expect higher prices? Beeson has been calling the bottom since sometime in 2008, after all…

Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home prices down 13%

People might be buying homes, but it’s not pushing Pierce County home prices up.

The number of pending and closed home sales increased by 16 percent and 31 percent respectively in January, according to figures released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

But the area’s median home price still dropped by 13 percent over the year to $205,000.

Short sales and foreclosures continue to drive down the area’s home prices, local realtors said.

It doesn’t look like the situation for underwater home sellers in Pierce County is likely to improve very soon. Sell now or be priced in forever.

I couldn’t find a piece from the Olympian this month. Perhaps Rolf Boone is on vacation.

Update: The Olympian story posted a day late. Here it is.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: More homes go on market

The number of Thurston County homes newly listed for sale last month rose above 500 units, likely the result of sellers wanting to take advantage of tax incentive programs and lower prices or those needing to sell their houses or condos because of falling property values, new data show.

The 505 homes newly listed in January marked a 4 percent increase from the 484 newly listed in January 2009, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released this week. The data are combined figures for single-family residences and condominiums.
…
Real estate broker Ken Anderson, the owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty, said he was encouraged by the county’s pending sales, which rose nearly 4 percent last month to 302 units from 291 units last year, he said.

Although fewer homes sold last month, an increased number of pending sales likely will result in more closed sales in February or March, Anderson said.

…or not, because pendings have very little correlation with actual closed sales lately.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 02.04.2010)
(Gerry Spratt, Seattle P-I, 02.04.2010)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 02.05.2010)
(Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.05.2010)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 02.06.2010)

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