Yesterday Calculated Risk wrote an interesting post looking at what housing is telling us as a leading indicator of the economy:
Historically the best leading indicator for the economy (and employment) has been housing.
So here is a review of the three monthly leading indicators:
- Housing Starts: Housing starts are moving sideways…
- Builder Confidence: More moving sideways…
- New Home Sales: …it would be generous to even call this “moving sideways”.
So these leading indicators suggest any growth will be sluggish and choppy.
So what are your expectations for near-term economic growth, both nationally and here in the Seattle area? I think most people would agree that the currently-available economic indicators are not pointing to another dramatic leg down, but does it necessarily follow that we are headed for a convincing recovery? I for one don’t really think so, especially when it comes to home prices.
So is flat the new up?