New Data Conclusively Proves April 2010 Is The Bottom

Just-released data on open house traffic, phone calls placed to realtors, and casual searches at online listing sites, all point to a single, undeniable conclusion: April 2010 is the bottom of Seattle’s minor real estate adjustment.

Look at this highly reliable chart of OPEN HOUSE TRAFFIC©®™ sent to me by a trustworthy leading industry representative:

OPEN HOUSE TRAFFIC©®™

Just look at it. How can anyone deny the undeniable power of rapidly-increasing foot traffic in open houses? You can’t, so don’t even try.

And obviously, what does skyrocketing OPEN HOUSE TRAFFIC©®™ lead to? Inevitable and immediate recovery in prices, of course! Here is a just-released home price projection from the industry’s leading professional association:

Home Price Appreciation FTW!!!

Amazing, isn’t it??? Clearly anyone who does not jump into the housing market THIS VERY MINUTE is a complete and utter fool. A moron with maggots for brains.

Still don’t believe me? Look at this chart, which shows the undeniable effects of the expiring tax credit, the impending explosion of interest rates, and home prices shooting through the roof.

OMG BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!

If you buy today, you can get the house you want and still have $100,000 left in the bank for a new Hummer (I hear they’re going to be collector’s cars soon!) or a vacation to Paris or something. BUT IF YOU WAIT, the purchasing power of your money drops dramatically while simultaneously the price of even a mobile home in Sultan becomes out of reach within just a few months.

You read it here first, folks. Buy now or be sorry!!!

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

48 comments:

  1. 1

    I’ve been waiting for you to call a bottom–WOW!!! ;)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2

    Tim, you shouldn’t have made it so obviously factious. ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    hungryneck says:

    You should not only buy a house right now, but buy as many as possible.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4

    Thanks Tim. I see the awesome power of our industry’s professional lobbiests has finally won you over. The data is pretty consclusive.

    PS. How many miles did you and Glen Kelman put on the Hummer last week? It looks like you guys hit the open houses HARD last weekend. ;)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    Lake Hills (ex) Landlord says:

    I wasn’t entirely convinced by your argument at first, but after taking a closer look at the color gradient in the home price chart I’m in full agreement. A shift from pink to blue clearly indicates that we’ve moved from pink ponies (which clearly don’t exist) to blue skies (which we’ve had glimpses of for weeks now). Excellent investigative reporting as usual!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    Geek says:

    Thank god we’ve hit bottom! Time to buy something for a million and sell it in a year! :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    HappyRenter says:

    I love it!

    Happy spring everybody!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    chad says:

    this just made my day. ;)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    pfft says:

    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    HappyRenter says:

    By pfft @ 9:

    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

    You might still have increasing foot traffic, even if the amount of open houses is not.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    Ray Pepper says:

    Even, I’m buying today. Beautiful Craftsman in Issaquah. Steve Tytler is handling my financing at BEST Mortgage and I’m using Kary Krismer to represent me.

    I’m so happy!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    By HappyRenter @ 10:

    By pfft @ 9:
    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

    You might still have increasing foot traffic, even if the amount of open houses is not.

    You know what this means, right? Pent up foot traffic! This could lead to bidding wars for cookies and Fabreeze.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. 13
    pfft says:

    makers of scented candles jumped after this blog post was picked up by CNBC.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    dev says:

    Hmmm! Such a great change in outlook within 24hrs. Do I need to believe on April 1st.

    Thanks

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    BillE says:

    This is the sign I’ve been waiting for. All of the pent up demand is finally coming out. The increasing green on the right of the first chart tells me there’s big money ahead.
    This is the kind of reporting we need. These are a lot easier to understand without all the numbers that are so common on graphs.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. 16
    LA Relo says:

    The funny thing is around 2006 or so claims like this weren’t that much different.

    May I present exhibit NAR:
    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/its_a_great_time.png

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    The Tim says:

    RE: LA Relo @ 16 – Amusingly, you can still download the full pdfs for that September 2006 ad campaign directly from the NAR themselves.

    Some hilarious quotes:

    • “Large Inventory Won’t Last”
    • “Prices Overall Have Stabilized”
    • “Real Estate is a Great Investment – Homeownership is a safe, secure way to build long-term wealth.”

    This is my favorite part, from their “fact sheet”:

    WITH THE MARKET CORRECTION NEARING AN END, HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN.

    • Research indicates that home prices will not go any lower. While certain local markets may see limited price declines, the national picture remains bright. Pending home sales were up 4.3% in August, an early indication that buyers are returning to the market.
    • The national median home price will rise 1.6% in 2006 and prices are expected to rise again in the first quarter of 2007. As prices begin to rise again buyers who do not act now could be making a costly mistake.

    Priceless.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    Scotsman says:

    Wow. Well, I guess it’s time to admit I’ve been wrong about so much. While I didn’t see this coming, Tim has certainly documented that the bottom is here, and the time to buy is now. I’ll need a Realtor- Ira, please get in touch.

    I’d also like to apologize to all the SB readers for my obviously faulty analysis, arrogant and sarcastic manner, and dismissive attitude toward those who saw this coming long before I did. Pfft especially deserves my humble apology- he/she is obviously a great analyst and economist with a far reaching vision. Congratulations!

    Adieu! It’s off to Redfin to find my dream! It is indeed a great time to buy a house! (and maybe a Hummer!)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    The Tim says:

    RE: LA Relo @ 16 – Also, that reminds me of a parody flier I made in 2008.

    NAR original: Building_Wealth_Print_Small.pdf
    Seattle Bubble parody: Building_Wealth_Parody.pdf

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    CCG says:

    I just quit my job, walked into my local Chase branch to talk to a loan officer, and bought the entire city of Redmond! I’ll be retiring wealthy in 15 minutes! golly IT’S GOOD TO BE KING!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. 21

    The reason for the uptick in open house traffic is the new law recently passed by Congress that requires everyone over the age of 26 to own at least one personal residence that has at least 3000 square feet and 2.75 bathrooms, on a 4,000 foot lot. If they don’t own one by the end of the year, then the IRS will penalize them $20,000 a year.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    Lurker says:

    Fantastic post. I want to know what you were thinking when you had projected home prices leveled in Q3/Q4 of 2011

    Is that one of Tytler’s steps? :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. 23
    tomtom says:

    Is there an echo in here?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. 24
    pfft says:

    is there? is there? is there?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. 25
    WestSideBilly says:

    By Ray Pepper @ 11:

    Even, I’m buying today. Beautiful Craftsman in Issaquah. Steve Tytler is handling my financing at BEST Mortgage and I’m using Kary Krismer to represent me.

    I’m so happy!

    I’ve got my eyes on a Ballard craftsman. Granite counters, stainless appliances, and everything! Except I’m using Ardell to represent me, and Rhonda for my financing. Seems like a no-brainer, even if my debt load will be over 50% of my income!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. 26
    QARunner says:

    While you guys are whining about bottom projections I’m celebrating the imminent uptick in real estate prices by maxing out my HELOC for that downpayment on the new Hummer and Plasma…..oh wait, never mind.

    The only thing related to real estate that I own that is growing is the sourdough starter in my kitchen that I use to bake wholewheat bread. I don’t expect that to change any time soon.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. 27
    Kristy says:

    Great April Fool’s Day Charts! Love em’….

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. 28
    Noz says:

    My eyes! Those charts are blinding!

    I sense sarcasm.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. 29
    me says:

    Excellent. The thing to keep in mind, people, is that if you follow the projected growth of Seattle Real Estate investment, investing into a medium sized townhouse here will allow you to buy most of Baltimore in 2014. And they have some pretty decent parking ;)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. 30
    Scotsman says:

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 25

    “I’ve got my eyes on a Ballard craftsman. Granite counters, stainless appliances, and everything”

    Granite counters AND stainless? Wow- it’s hard to find that combination. Sounds like you’ve found a GEM!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. 31

    RE: Scotsman @ 18
    I’d represent you, but be aware that the days of the 3% commission are over. From now on I charge an 8% commission. Lennox Scott told me it was OK.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  32. 32
    reader says:

    Can someone point me to some real analysis? I am looking for something which can indicate how much percentage decline is expected in Seattle area prices for 2010 and 2011.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  33. 33
    Scotsman says:

    The Dow closed at 10,927 today. We should easily see it breaking through 11,000 next week and closing out the year at 14,000+. After all, that’s only about 17 points per day average for the rest of the year. Housing has bottomed, the Dow is taking off, I suddenly feel a whole lot better about the future.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  34. 34
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Haw! I just showed these graphs to my buddy at AIG, and he bought all my credit default swap contracts for dollars on the penny! Next stop is citi to unload my MBS portfolio. Now they’re rock-solid!

    I’m rich all over again!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  35. 35
    cutienoua says:

    almost funny!
    better luck next year!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  36. 36
    Tom Deane says:

    Thing is, I’ll bet this fake prediction turns out to be accurate to a good degree. Why? I trade the markets every day, and what I experiencing and also reading about, with a lot of factual data to support it, is that the major US stock market indexes are experiencing HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT day-over-day relentless upward gains. All of this despite that the backbone of our economy — equity in the housing market — has lost substantial sums and destroyed a massive chunk of American retirement savings. Not to mention that the dot-com bubble bust did this to savings, as well. And unemployment is higher than ever.

    Without going into detail, what I am stating here is that there is VERY VERY VERY BLATANT manipulation of the stock market happening right now. In summary, it seems that those filthy rich, privately owned banks that received trillions of our hard-earned taxpayer money are now using that same money — under direction from another of the world’s many privately-owned and interconnected central banks, our own Federal Reserve — to buy options on the market, in an effort to artificially prop up the stock market.

    But the only reason these private bankers would ever need to do something like this would be if they stood to profit by other people’s losses. Remember the dot-com bubble excitement? It seems they are now doing it to the rest of the economy — these guys know the majority of the US investing public is dumb enough to fall for the same thing twice. Most of them voted for the same party, afterall, this last election — that is, our one and only Repumocrat party, our slick representatives of the private bankers,

    These guys have loads of money to throw around, thanks to our taxpayer money being handed to them. Tell me… if they can make the stock market go up, why can’t they make the housing market or anything go up? Looks like they just made the commercial RE market go up. Even if RE doesn’t go up on its own, the banker-owned media will report otherwise, and it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  37. 37
    Tom Deane says:

    The type of socialism Obama’s bosses (the private central bankers) want to replace our republic with is so substantial that it’s going to require massive amounts of televised and radio misinformation about what’s actually happening to the economy. Your new socialism is being presented to you with a pretty pink ribbon around it, because the marketing analysts who work for the bankers already know most of the American public will respond positively to such methods. I think we’re entering republic-socialist-totalitarian Limbo… no man’s land where it’s going to be impossible to know exactly how the economy is really doing. The way to tell where public attention will focus its money will be where the TV tells them the money is.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  38. 38

    By reader @ 32:

    Can someone point me to some real analysis? I am looking for something which can indicate how much percentage decline is expected in Seattle area prices for 2010 and 2011.

    And while you’re at it, can you please tell me where each of the S&P 500 stocks will be at the end of each year. I want to know where to put my money.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  39. 39

    It Reminds Me of the Joke YOY 40% Jump in Toyota/Ford Automobiles

    But they forgot to tell us that March 2009 auto sales had dropped about 40%, making the 40% increase a moot point to February 2009’s dismal sales. Real Estate exagerations use the same statistic twist lies too, to make dismal OK.

    Article in part:

    “…Talk of government loans and bankruptcy and a 37 percent drop in March [2009] sales isn’t good news…”

    http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/palm/2009/Apr/02/bz/hawaii904020317.html

    Believe everything you read, see or hear on MSM….LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  40. 40
    Stb says:

    Ahhh job growth! There must be some way to explain this positive economic news in a negative light. More hiring equals less people with extra time on their hands to post on this forum? I’m sure ya’ll can think of something :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  41. 41
    reader says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 38 – thanks for responding. It’s a real comfort to know that I am not the only one in the dark.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  42. 42
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: reader @ 41

    If you come across my other eye, let me know. I bought a 3D TV last weekend and it took me until now to figure out why it didn’t work.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  43. 43
    SeattleMoose says:

    Once again proving that anyone with ties to the RE industry can’t be trusted for anything relating to their food source…..

    RE: The Tim @ 17 -

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  44. 44
    LA Relo says:

    RE: The Tim @ 19

    That’s awesome. Although Kool-aid Man might have been an appropriate photo too.

    The NAR one is so full of BS it would make anyone with a clue about housing laugh:
    “The fact is, homeownership is key to building long-term wealth, no matter when someone buys.” Seriously? NO matter when? I don’t mean to offend any Realtors here, but some of their lies are insulting.

    All long term trend studies I’ve seen for housing appreciation amount to 2-3%. If you take the 10-city CSI data, and divide the 1987 price from the most recent you get an average annual appreciation rate of 0.91%.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  45. 45

    RE: LA Relo @ 44 – You’re ignoring the fact that it’s a leveraged tax-free investment. You’re fooling yourself if you think that someone wouldn’t have done well investing in real estate back in 1987.

    One of my clients who I thought might have bought a house around that time (it was actually 5 years after that), sold it in 2008 for roughly 2.25 times what he paid for it. He relocated, and is now living in a house paid for by the profits of that purchase.

    But, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. And the fact that it is typically a leveraged “investment” also increases the risk. And finally, possible investment returns should be way down the list of the reasons people should use for making a decision to buy a house.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  46. 46
    LA Relo says:

    Actually I calculated that wrong, and now I don’t have time to correct it.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  47. 47

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 25 – 50% DTI? We might have to do an OVERstated income loan! LOL — NOT!!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  48. 48

    […] New Data Conclusively Proves April 2010 Is The Bottom – 04/01 – 47 comments […]

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