Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

48 responses to “New Data Conclusively Proves April 2010 Is The Bottom”

  1. Rhonda Porter

    I’ve been waiting for you to call a bottom–WOW!!! ;)

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    Tim, you shouldn’t have made it so obviously factious. ;-)

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  3. hungryneck

    You should not only buy a house right now, but buy as many as possible.

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  4. Geordie Romer | Leavenworth WA

    Thanks Tim. I see the awesome power of our industry’s professional lobbiests has finally won you over. The data is pretty consclusive.

    PS. How many miles did you and Glen Kelman put on the Hummer last week? It looks like you guys hit the open houses HARD last weekend. ;)

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  5. Lake Hills (ex) Landlord

    I wasn’t entirely convinced by your argument at first, but after taking a closer look at the color gradient in the home price chart I’m in full agreement. A shift from pink to blue clearly indicates that we’ve moved from pink ponies (which clearly don’t exist) to blue skies (which we’ve had glimpses of for weeks now). Excellent investigative reporting as usual!

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  6. Geek

    Thank god we’ve hit bottom! Time to buy something for a million and sell it in a year! :)

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  7. HappyRenter

    I love it!

    Happy spring everybody!

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  8. chad

    this just made my day. ;)

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  9. pfft

    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

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  10. HappyRenter

    By pfft @ 9:

    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

    You might still have increasing foot traffic, even if the amount of open houses is not.

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  11. Ray Pepper

    Even, I’m buying today. Beautiful Craftsman in Issaquah. Steve Tytler is handling my financing at BEST Mortgage and I’m using Kary Krismer to represent me.

    I’m so happy!

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  12. Lake Hills Renter

    By HappyRenter @ 10:

    By pfft @ 9:
    we actually have a shortage of open houses.

    You might still have increasing foot traffic, even if the amount of open houses is not.

    You know what this means, right? Pent up foot traffic! This could lead to bidding wars for cookies and Fabreeze.

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  13. pfft

    makers of scented candles jumped after this blog post was picked up by CNBC.

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  14. dev

    Hmmm! Such a great change in outlook within 24hrs. Do I need to believe on April 1st.

    Thanks

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  15. BillE

    This is the sign I’ve been waiting for. All of the pent up demand is finally coming out. The increasing green on the right of the first chart tells me there’s big money ahead.
    This is the kind of reporting we need. These are a lot easier to understand without all the numbers that are so common on graphs.

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  16. LA Relo

    The funny thing is around 2006 or so claims like this weren’t that much different.

    May I present exhibit NAR:
    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/its_a_great_time.png

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  17. Scotsman

    Wow. Well, I guess it’s time to admit I’ve been wrong about so much. While I didn’t see this coming, Tim has certainly documented that the bottom is here, and the time to buy is now. I’ll need a Realtor- Ira, please get in touch.

    I’d also like to apologize to all the SB readers for my obviously faulty analysis, arrogant and sarcastic manner, and dismissive attitude toward those who saw this coming long before I did. Pfft especially deserves my humble apology- he/she is obviously a great analyst and economist with a far reaching vision. Congratulations!

    Adieu! It’s off to Redfin to find my dream! It is indeed a great time to buy a house! (and maybe a Hummer!)

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  18. CCG

    I just quit my job, walked into my local Chase branch to talk to a loan officer, and bought the entire city of Redmond! I’ll be retiring wealthy in 15 minutes! golly IT’S GOOD TO BE KING!

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  19. Kary L. Krismer

    The reason for the uptick in open house traffic is the new law recently passed by Congress that requires everyone over the age of 26 to own at least one personal residence that has at least 3000 square feet and 2.75 bathrooms, on a 4,000 foot lot. If they don’t own one by the end of the year, then the IRS will penalize them $20,000 a year.

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  20. Lurker

    Fantastic post. I want to know what you were thinking when you had projected home prices leveled in Q3/Q4 of 2011

    Is that one of Tytler’s steps? :)

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  21. tomtom

    Is there an echo in here?

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  22. pfft

    is there? is there? is there?

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  23. WestSideBilly

    By Ray Pepper @ 11:

    Even, I’m buying today. Beautiful Craftsman in Issaquah. Steve Tytler is handling my financing at BEST Mortgage and I’m using Kary Krismer to represent me.

    I’m so happy!

    I’ve got my eyes on a Ballard craftsman. Granite counters, stainless appliances, and everything! Except I’m using Ardell to represent me, and Rhonda for my financing. Seems like a no-brainer, even if my debt load will be over 50% of my income!

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  24. QARunner

    While you guys are whining about bottom projections I’m celebrating the imminent uptick in real estate prices by maxing out my HELOC for that downpayment on the new Hummer and Plasma…..oh wait, never mind.

    The only thing related to real estate that I own that is growing is the sourdough starter in my kitchen that I use to bake wholewheat bread. I don’t expect that to change any time soon.

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  25. Kristy

    Great April Fool’s Day Charts! Love em’….

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  26. Noz

    My eyes! Those charts are blinding!

    I sense sarcasm.

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  27. me

    Excellent. The thing to keep in mind, people, is that if you follow the projected growth of Seattle Real Estate investment, investing into a medium sized townhouse here will allow you to buy most of Baltimore in 2014. And they have some pretty decent parking ;)

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  28. Scotsman

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 25

    “I’ve got my eyes on a Ballard craftsman. Granite counters, stainless appliances, and everything”

    Granite counters AND stainless? Wow- it’s hard to find that combination. Sounds like you’ve found a GEM!

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  29. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Scotsman @ 18
    I’d represent you, but be aware that the days of the 3% commission are over. From now on I charge an 8% commission. Lennox Scott told me it was OK.

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  30. reader

    Can someone point me to some real analysis? I am looking for something which can indicate how much percentage decline is expected in Seattle area prices for 2010 and 2011.

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  31. Scotsman

    The Dow closed at 10,927 today. We should easily see it breaking through 11,000 next week and closing out the year at 14,000+. After all, that’s only about 17 points per day average for the rest of the year. Housing has bottomed, the Dow is taking off, I suddenly feel a whole lot better about the future.

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  32. Hugh Dominic

    Haw! I just showed these graphs to my buddy at AIG, and he bought all my credit default swap contracts for dollars on the penny! Next stop is citi to unload my MBS portfolio. Now they’re rock-solid!

    I’m rich all over again!

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  33. cutienoua

    almost funny!
    better luck next year!

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  34. Tom Deane

    Thing is, I’ll bet this fake prediction turns out to be accurate to a good degree. Why? I trade the markets every day, and what I experiencing and also reading about, with a lot of factual data to support it, is that the major US stock market indexes are experiencing HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT day-over-day relentless upward gains. All of this despite that the backbone of our economy — equity in the housing market — has lost substantial sums and destroyed a massive chunk of American retirement savings. Not to mention that the dot-com bubble bust did this to savings, as well. And unemployment is higher than ever.

    Without going into detail, what I am stating here is that there is VERY VERY VERY BLATANT manipulation of the stock market happening right now. In summary, it seems that those filthy rich, privately owned banks that received trillions of our hard-earned taxpayer money are now using that same money — under direction from another of the world’s many privately-owned and interconnected central banks, our own Federal Reserve — to buy options on the market, in an effort to artificially prop up the stock market.

    But the only reason these private bankers would ever need to do something like this would be if they stood to profit by other people’s losses. Remember the dot-com bubble excitement? It seems they are now doing it to the rest of the economy — these guys know the majority of the US investing public is dumb enough to fall for the same thing twice. Most of them voted for the same party, afterall, this last election — that is, our one and only Repumocrat party, our slick representatives of the private bankers,

    These guys have loads of money to throw around, thanks to our taxpayer money being handed to them. Tell me… if they can make the stock market go up, why can’t they make the housing market or anything go up? Looks like they just made the commercial RE market go up. Even if RE doesn’t go up on its own, the banker-owned media will report otherwise, and it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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  35. Tom Deane

    The type of socialism Obama’s bosses (the private central bankers) want to replace our republic with is so substantial that it’s going to require massive amounts of televised and radio misinformation about what’s actually happening to the economy. Your new socialism is being presented to you with a pretty pink ribbon around it, because the marketing analysts who work for the bankers already know most of the American public will respond positively to such methods. I think we’re entering republic-socialist-totalitarian Limbo… no man’s land where it’s going to be impossible to know exactly how the economy is really doing. The way to tell where public attention will focus its money will be where the TV tells them the money is.

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  36. Kary L. Krismer

    By reader @ 32:

    Can someone point me to some real analysis? I am looking for something which can indicate how much percentage decline is expected in Seattle area prices for 2010 and 2011.

    And while you’re at it, can you please tell me where each of the S&P 500 stocks will be at the end of each year. I want to know where to put my money.

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  37. softwarengineer

    It Reminds Me of the Joke YOY 40% Jump in Toyota/Ford Automobiles

    But they forgot to tell us that March 2009 auto sales had dropped about 40%, making the 40% increase a moot point to February 2009′s dismal sales. Real Estate exagerations use the same statistic twist lies too, to make dismal OK.

    Article in part:

    “…Talk of government loans and bankruptcy and a 37 percent drop in March [2009] sales isn’t good news…”

    http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/palm/2009/Apr/02/bz/hawaii904020317.html

    Believe everything you read, see or hear on MSM….LOL

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  38. Stb

    Ahhh job growth! There must be some way to explain this positive economic news in a negative light. More hiring equals less people with extra time on their hands to post on this forum? I’m sure ya’ll can think of something :)

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  39. reader

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 38 – thanks for responding. It’s a real comfort to know that I am not the only one in the dark.

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  40. One Eyed Man

    RE: reader @ 41

    If you come across my other eye, let me know. I bought a 3D TV last weekend and it took me until now to figure out why it didn’t work.

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  41. SeattleMoose

    Once again proving that anyone with ties to the RE industry can’t be trusted for anything relating to their food source…..

    RE: The Tim @ 17 -

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  42. LA Relo

    RE: The Tim @ 19

    That’s awesome. Although Kool-aid Man might have been an appropriate photo too.

    The NAR one is so full of BS it would make anyone with a clue about housing laugh:
    “The fact is, homeownership is key to building long-term wealth, no matter when someone buys.” Seriously? NO matter when? I don’t mean to offend any Realtors here, but some of their lies are insulting.

    All long term trend studies I’ve seen for housing appreciation amount to 2-3%. If you take the 10-city CSI data, and divide the 1987 price from the most recent you get an average annual appreciation rate of 0.91%.

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  43. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: LA Relo @ 44 – You’re ignoring the fact that it’s a leveraged tax-free investment. You’re fooling yourself if you think that someone wouldn’t have done well investing in real estate back in 1987.

    One of my clients who I thought might have bought a house around that time (it was actually 5 years after that), sold it in 2008 for roughly 2.25 times what he paid for it. He relocated, and is now living in a house paid for by the profits of that purchase.

    But, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. And the fact that it is typically a leveraged “investment” also increases the risk. And finally, possible investment returns should be way down the list of the reasons people should use for making a decision to buy a house.

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  44. LA Relo

    Actually I calculated that wrong, and now I don’t have time to correct it.

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  45. Rhonda Porter

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 25 – 50% DTI? We might have to do an OVERstated income loan! LOL — NOT!!

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  46. Seattle Bubble • Tim’s Top Ten of Twenty-Ten

    [...] New Data Conclusively Proves April 2010 Is The Bottom – 04/01 – 47 comments [...]

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