By The Tim on April 23, 2010
Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday April 23rd, 2010. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
For those of you who think I’m too conservative or narrow-minded, here’s a little something from my morning reading, from what all would acknowledge is a left leaning site- The Daily Beast. This is a well written rebuttal to the mindless cheer leading in the MSM:
” I get the distinct impression that we’re walking into a decade-long buzzsaw.”
“Over the weekend, Christina Romer, the distinguished chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, gave a speech at Princeton in which she argued that the central economic problem facing the country remains a lack of aggregate demand,”
“There is at least one structural change that is undeniable: namely that there’s been a delinkage between corporate profits and the health of the U.S. labor market. U.S.-based multinationals now look to emerging market economies as engines of growth. At home, these firms continue to aggressively cut costs and produce more with fewer workers. This has meant robust productivity increases, a sign of good things to come. But hiring and expansion is happening where the breakneck growth is happening, and that is not in the United States”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-04-22/sorry-were-still-doomed/full/#
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Post your dream home? Here’s one of mine, down from somewhere around $17M to a much more reasonable $10M? Who pays this kind of money to live in North Bend?
http://www.johnlscott.com/propertydetail.aspx?IS=1&ListingID=32112905
http://photos.realestateadmin.com/nwmlso/PHOTO/281/129/28112952-14.jpg
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RE: Scotsman @ 2 – I’d be willing to pay more to live in North Bend than I would to live in Los Angeles. Fortunately, I don’t have to.
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By Scotsman @ 2:
for that price, I would have to own North Bend…
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RE: Scotsman @ 1 –
Pragmatic Left
I agree Scotsman, some of my best agreements on economic trends come from common sense pragmatic thinkers who have learned to omit their own “pocket book prejudice” during detailed evaluation(s)…they come in all parties, occupations and even educational levels.
They also tend to be open minded and not afraid to change their opinion with new facts too. And when they blog or state something it has an educated backup with credentials, not just another “flat-worlder” opinion. Imagine Columbus in 1492 arguing with the “flat-worlders” [the majority at that time too] that he wouldn’t fall off the ledge….LOL
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Lots of “pending inspection” and “pending” status this last couple of weeks. I’m seeing them on houses that have been at stupid prices for a year or so. All it takes is one.
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The economy is clearly heading up based on one trend: The number of Hummers on the road.
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Good piece on Seattle’s downtown real estate on Marketplace (NPR). I think you guys get it at 6:30.
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By Cheap South @ 8:
Here it is:
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/04/23/pm-seattle-real-estate-lull/
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By Scotsman @ 1:
can’t say it enough, unemployment is a lagging indicator. this is not some new phenomenon. businesses are always scared that the downturn is not over and aren’t hiring yet. hence the lagging part.
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RE: pfft @ 10 –
“But hiring and expansion is happening where the breakneck growth is happening, and that is not in the United Statesā€¯
Yup, sounds like it’s going to lag for about ten years, maybe more.
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Who says the SEC isn’t doing anything?
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0423/sec-staffers-watched-porn-economy-crashed/
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By Scotsman @ 11:
even though we are adding jobs and that will only increase as will the permabear’s excuses.
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I don’t know if I cited this but rail traffic did pretty good. rail traffic is up.
“The AAR reports traffic in March 2010 was up 7.5% compared to March 2009 – the first year-over-year increase since July 2008 – although traffic was still 11.5% lower than in March 2008.”
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/rail-traffic-increases-in-march.html
lumber prices seem to be moving along quite nicely.
the rally in raw materials is so strong it might hurt profits.
High Cost of Raw Materials
Surging Prices, Fueled by Emerging-Market Demand, Hit Profits and Consumers
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704830404575200530701532768.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LeadStory
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RE: Scotsman @ 11 –
If you expect jobs to remain in the United States, you would need a work force. We, long ago, passed up the opportunities to work for a living in favor of our love for the American mega business model. We worship the wealthy, and expect them to provide for us. We are in the midst of the great American Renaissance brought to you by Reaganonmics that trickled down on us like a golden shower from heaven above.
The greatest of lords, Bush the First, then Bush II, heaped even more free money onto the wealthy so they could care for us further, so there was no need to work any more.
Unfortunately we now have an elected President of the United States who is refusing to go along with giving more money to the extremely wealthy so they can provide for us. He instead has taken away the greatest carrot of Corporate health care, passed out cash to the mid level management of the banking industry, and has the audacity to suggest taxing the wealthy to recoup some of the trillions of tax dollars that were gifted to them.
Now we are stuck trying to figure out how to fend for ourselves. The wealthy, the truly wealthy, are preparing to leave this great country, and take the spoils we have given them.
The emerging market are preparing for their arrival and are more grateful for the meager gifts that the wealthy, the truly wealthy, will bear.
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RE: pfft @ 14 –
You are clueless to what any of this means.
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By David Losh @ 16:
it means that demand is coming back which means that economic activity is coming back. even lumber is going up.
the commodities are good indicators. they confirmed the technicals that were looking good in the summer of last year.
It’s a V! Recovery “A Lot Stronger” Than Consensus, ECRI’s Achuthan Says
Oct 09, 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/351329/It
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By geon @ 6:
I’ve noticed that too. I’m also seeing a lot of them go back to active status. It’s not just short sales going back to active either.
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RE: BillE @ 18 -
I’m also noticing more active->pending->active toggles on houses over the last month or so on non-short sales. I think some are related to inability of buyers to get financing.
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RE: pfft @ 17 –
Sorry, it’s not coming back. Construction is never coming back. Coal energy is never coming back. Manufacturing is gone, and labor is fighting over scraps left on the floor after the feast of Kings.
It’s not coming back, there is no recovery from what just happened. There is no World War Two that will save the day, carve up the planet, and redistribute global wealth.
It’s done, what’s done is done. This hope that the “emerging markets” will continue to provide more goods, at a better price is just wishful thinking.
Right now the fight is with banking, lending, outstanding loans, and taxation. Everything else is just shifting stuff around waiting for a resolution. No one wants to give an inch.
I’m going to be the first to break it to you, Greece will never repay anything. Europe will have to cover the expenses of that socialist country, then Portugal, then Spain, then Italy. No one is going to lift a finger to help Germany, France, England, Switzerland, or any of the other Northern Europeans.
Africa, South America, and Asia will close ranks. There’s nothing left there that will be given away. There are no more New Worlds to discover, no new finds that will make it all better.
All the Conservative talk, all this fiscal responsibility talk, is just talk. The only things of substance on the table are health care, which will need to be globally socialized, and restructuring of debt through further taxation.
Now the question is what your part will be, where will you fit in?
Software Engineer is right, Six Billion people are hard to feed. Hungry people make good soldiers. We either figure that out, or die. It’s that simple.
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RE: David Losh @ 20
Coal energy never left. It generates half of our electric power in the U.S. What do you mean by this?
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RE: wreckingbull @ 21 –
It’s unsustainable.
You’re saying oil is a viable energy source, correct? Fossil fuels are a viable energy source? It’s kind of like dams, great when we build ‘em then leave ‘em for fifty years. What’s a dam project cost today?
It makes no difference. Pfft was referring to rail traffic, there has been greater coal transport by rail since Warren wants his money’s worth.
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RE: David Losh @ 22
Where did I say that?
I was just trying to clarify your statement, which makes no sense to me. Whether any of us like it or not, this nation could not survive without coal. It is cheap and abundant. Coal will die in the very distant future not because we run out of it, but because other sources come close to its cost without the environmental impact.
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By wreckingbull @ 23:
Just to throw this out there, this is what the optimistic forecasts from the coal industry say:
“This means that there is enough coal to last us over 130 years at current rates of production. In contrast, proven oil and gas reserves are equivalent to around 42 and 60 years at current production levels.”
(from http://www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-is-coal-found/)
Abundant is relative. It will run out just like natural gas, oil and uranium. And it won’t last that much longer than oil.
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RE: David Losh @ 15 –
And This Was in Mid 2008, Before all Hades Broke Loose
It’s not just America with empty lease space and over-built, try China too. Article in part:
“…But itā€™s a study in contrasts. For instance, China is home to the worldā€™s largest shopping mall. Too bad that shopping mall is nearly empty with only about a dozen stores occupied out of 1,500….”
http://smallbiztrends.com/2008/07/thinking-about-china-as-a-market-dont-be-that-empty-shopping-mall.html
Have any of you bloggers been to Tacoma Station lately? It’s a sad ghost town shopping mall too.
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RE: David Losh @ 22 –
Railroad Replaces Trucks When Oil Goes Up
That’s a pragmatic fact, rail uses less fuel per tonnage. The trucking industry propaganda in part:
“….Southfield, MI (PRWEB) April 21, 2010 — Recession factors continued to slow the freight transportation industry throughout 2009, but many fleet operators have used the business downturn to rethink their driver recruitment strategies….”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/prweb/20100421/bs_prweb/prweb3899294_1
In other words they plan to outsource replacement drivers [how the Hades do you do that? LOL], try, they’ll insource cheap slave drivers, while American drivers are laidoff…LOL
They print the same hogwash/nonsense about engineers….there’s a shortage, so we need outsourcing/insourcing when American engineering graduates can’t find normal paying jobs in this country. It’s all corporist lies.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 23 –
Energy is a tired argument for what we have in place. Dams were going to replace, nuclear was going to replace, wind turbine was going to replace, and all arguments end with we have abundant oil, natural gas, or coal.
It’s not going to work this time. China can out bid us, global demand can push the prices as high as they want and force the United States into a National Security issue of energy costs. This time the argument is not coming back to we have plenty, it’s what are we going to do next that will be a sustainable, abundant solution to global energy issues.
I’ll go back to my original argument that we can never again close our borders and call ourselves safe.
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RE: David Losh @ 27 –
David do you know that in a sweeping glance at your picture you look like Al Gore??
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RE: ray pepper @ 28 –
Now we’re at the heart of it. Cap and Trade baby, don’t mess with our rampant coal or oil consumption.
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By ray pepper @ 28:
And if you look longer, he looks like he’s the son of Al Gore and Bill Clinton.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 30 –
Gore, Clinton, and the subway ghost in the movie ” Ghost”.
http://cdn.maxim.com/29501-30000/29809_hideousHeroes_subwaySpirit_l1.jpg
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 31 – RE: ray pepper @ 28 –
Oh, the irony of it all- given your analysis, to some David appears as an earthly “son of gods” while to others he is the spawn of the devils themselves. Hmmm.
Personally, I thought he was pretty good looking, professional too. Unfortunately, that still doesn’t make him right about much. ;-)
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 30 –
Sorry Kary- meant to include you in the above- credit where credit is due.
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Maybe, but I have a point. Energy is a perfect example of where we, as a country, go horribly wrong. We can make our homes self suffecient. Changing windows, and increasing insulation seems to be a huge stumbling block to Cap and Trade, but it only makes sense we should all do something to lower our consumption of fossil fuels.
We can have solar panels, a smaller wind turbine, we can buy a Segway, motorcycle, or electric motorcycle. We can demand personal vehicles for in city driving, and more fuel effecient cars for long distance.
Instead we want large corporate energy resources to take care of us. We want to be cloaked in the warmth only the government, or corporate welfare, can give us.
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Is this glittering review on the four season’s website? No. It’s in the Seattle Times.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/pacificnw/2011645591_pacificpnwl25.html
Nevermind that the project is a huge underwater bomb, unable to pay it’s builders or sell the remaining units even with price cuts.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011561777_fourseasons09.html
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RE: pfft @ 13 – Pfft – My question is – if you are a big business – why do you want to hire workers in the US when you can find the same workers willing to work for less overseas?
There are circumstances when you have to hire US workers:
1) You sell directly to US clients and you have to meet them in person
2) Size of your business is small – so outsourcing would be too difficult
What else?
Why does MSFT still outsource so few jobs to India? Why not cut 75% of Redmond employees and send them to India?
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RE: Trigger @ 36 –
Because in India it’s considered pathetic to keep the same position for any length of time. This means your remote employees are turning over at a rate high enough to impact the project negatively.
Because projects sent to India and China can come back needing more work than when you started in the first place.
Because managing a remote team can consume a shocking amount of local resources.
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RE: anonymous @ 35 – Odd that you cannot comment on that article.
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RE: Trigger @ 36 –
Due to issues with the training pipeline, India has a huge labor shortage when it comes to qualified people. More jobs will go there gradually over the years as more people become available, but the process will be only at the speed at which India is able to improve the education levels of the people.
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By sleepwalker @ 37:
9 times out of 10, this is the case.
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