About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

44 comments:

  1. 1
    Scotsman says:

    Here’s a little BP info to get things rolling on the midweek thread. Unfortunately, I’m off to CA through the weekend, so I won’t get to participate. Enjoy!

    ““BP has had more high-profile accidents than any other company in recent years. And now, with the disaster in the gulf, independent experts say the pervasiveness of the company’s problems, in multiple locales and different types of facilities, is striking.

    ‘They are a recurring environmental criminal and they do not follow U.S. health safety and environmental policy,’ said Jeanne Pascal, a former EPA lawyer who led its BP investigations.”

    And yet just 10 days prior to the explosion, the Obama administration’s regulators gave the oil rig a pass, and last year the Obama administration granted BP a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) exemption for its drilling operation.”

    Oil money- it’s everywhere.

    http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin?v=app_2347471856&ref=ts

  2. 2
    David Losh says:

    Sarah is such a maverick. I hope she has continued success doing stand up comedy.

    She did bring up a good point that the Governors of the States in that region have done absolutely nothing to help the people.

    This has been an extremely sad commentary that the Republican Part has chosen, once again, to play politics at the expense of the American People.

  3. 3

    I couldn’t read all that Palin stuff, but I did see Obama talking in the part where she’s quoting Obama at the beginning. Clearly Obama was saying that he hadn’t talked with the CEO of BP because he didn’t want to (which says something in and of itself). On NBC (or King) last night they spun it the other way, like the CEO of BP was refusing to talk to Obama.

  4. 4
    pfft says:

    cnbc has a good interview about what happens if we drop below 15%.
    Outrunning the Bear
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1516755208&play=1

  5. 5
    pfft says:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    And yet just 10 days prior to the explosion, the Obama administrationâ��s regulators gave the oil rig a pass, and last year the Obama administration granted BP a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) exemption for its drilling operation.”

    Oil money- it’s everywhere.

    http://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin?v=app_2347471856&ref=ts

    you can bet those were probably cheney-bush regulators. care to guess who poured the cement on that project? Haliburton. should we even get into the MMS?

    “In September 2008, reports by the Inspector General of the Interior Department, Earl E. Devaney, were released that implicated over a dozen officials of the MMS of unethical and criminal conduct in the performance of their duties. The investigation found MMS employees had taken drugs and had sex with energy company representatives.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minerals_Management_Service#Controversies

    aren’t you for less regulation anyway? doesn’t that mean this is BP’s fault and solely their fault? the government was off their back so they should have done everything perfectly? don’t the free marketers tell us that a company would never do anything wrong because they would be punished by the market?

  6. 6

    RE: Scotsman @ 1 – I went back and tried to read that again. Palin has a horrible writing style. It reminds me of Joel Connelly over at the P-I. I hope she pays someone to ghost write/edit her books.

  7. 7

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6
    That’s no way to talk about your next President.

  8. 8
    pfft says:

    The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/09/the-seductiveness-of-demands-for-pain/

    “Calling for austerity and tight money feels courageous, tough-minded, and virtuous; it allows the economist making such calls to take the pose of a Serious Person standing firm against the easy-money guys.”

  9. 9
    pfft says:

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 7:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6
    That’s no way to talk about your next President.

    if Palin were president I really would move to Canada!

  10. 10
    D. in Ballard says:

    Anyone who cites that clown needs to have their head examined. I’ve been reading Scotman’s comments for years now, and I know we don’t agree on anything. But what a quick way to completely destroy any credibility you have. “Hey look, I read this idiot. Listen to my savvy real estate and economic advice.”

  11. 11
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 1RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6

    Not funny Scotsman! I’m still picking chucks of vomit out of my keyboard from the physical reaction to realizing I had read something from Palin’s blog.

    My only solace is that I’d be shocked if Sarah writes any of it. The stuff I’ve read about her based upon people inside her administration in Alaska said the deepest she ever went into any issue was to read the executive summary.

    A meeting between Obama and Tony Hayward reeks of being nothing but a photo op. What are they going to do but say “You better fix it” and “We’re doing everything we can.” Face it, all the real work, and all the technical knowledge is located at levels well below Obama and Hayward.

    And for better or worse, liberals are stuck with their own ideals. It’s not like Cheney’s here and we can get some emotional satisfaction by publicly water boarding Hayward or anything. Or maybe call him a corporate terrorist and wrap little C4 charges around his genitals and threaten to set it off if he doesn’t stop the leak.

    Or can we just declare war on corporate irresponsibility so its OK to torture corporate wrongdoers? And sell rights to the live super slo-mo of Haywards nuts emulating the expanding universe in the big bang. Don’t criminal wrongdoers have to pay restitution? Maybe the TV rights would pay enough to cover the clean up costs. That’s to clean up the oil spill, not the studio.

    But remember, if the penalty is to high, no corporate executive will risk the consequences associated with deep sea drilling. If you want them to drill, they’re always going to want a profit and probably a safe harbor standard to avoid catastrophic liability and the potential risk of another big bang.

    The irony of Sarah’s blog is that its a fairly cogent argument for bigger government in the form of increased regulation. Obviously she (or more likely those who assist her in formulating conscious thought) would say its for better not more regulation.

  12. 12

    By One Eyed Man @ 11:

    But remember, if the penalty is to high, no corporate executive will risk the consequences associated with deep sea drilling. If you want them to drill, they’re always going to want a profit and probably a safe harbor standard to avoid catastrophic liability and the potential risk of another big bang.

    That’s what Obama has failed to realize in many areas. It reminds me of California’s Governor Davis who practically declared war on anyone who produced electricity. There was one case where that entity was a city that brought in its own generators, and he had the state take them over, effectively stopping any other city from doing anything to help produce electricity in a time of severe need.

  13. 13

    RE: Scotsman @ 1

    BP Was Likely Given Way Too Much Safety Slack By Our Department of Interior

    Article in part:

    “….a Department Of Interior (DOI) decision to exempt this rig from a comprehensive Environmental Assessment led to a reduction in protections against the disaster now unfolding, and guaranteed that BP would be unprepared to deal with any release that DID occur….”

    http://news.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978221992

  14. 14
    wreckingbull says:

    That Palin blog post has to be one of the most disgusting things I have read in a long time. It saddens me that this is the new face of the conservative movement. No thanks. Intellectual conservatives such as Friedrich Hayek would be so ashamed.

  15. 15

    RE: pfft @ 9
    When Ronald Reagan was elected. people said they’d move to Canada. When George W Bush was elected, people said the same thing. isn’t better to stick around and fight?
    Americans don’t often make very good choices when choosing elected officials. They usually vote for the candidate who’s taller or has a thicker head of hair. But by sticking around and being involved, sometimes we can limit the amount of damage they do.
    Truly, though, i don’t think Sarah Palin will get elected, even if she carries the white male vote.

  16. 16
    Sniglet says:

    Here is the link to my Optimistic Bear radio show recording from last night. This week we had a special guest from Vancouver, talking about the asset bubble in Canada.

    http://surkanstance.blogspot.com/2010/06/this-week-on-bear-radio-bubble-in.html

  17. 17
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    Sarah Palin isn’t conservative, she’s populist. Big difference.

  18. 18
    pfft says:

    By Lake Hills Renter @ 17:

    Sarah Palin isn’t conservative, she’s populist. Big difference.

    she’s not conservative or populist, she’s for sarah palin.

  19. 19
    pfft says:

    the case against the austerity spiral.

    “A rough estimate right now is that cutting spending by 1 percent of GDP raises the unemployment rate by .75 percent compared with what it would otherwise be, yet reduces future debt by less than 0.5 percent of GDP.”

    Lost Decade, Here We Come
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/lost-decade-here-we-come/

  20. 20
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Sniglet @ 16 – Thanks, I plan on listening. The Vancouver housing market is poised for an absolute meltdown and I think this is going to be interesting to watch. No doubt, one hears plenty of “we are different” up there north of the border.

  21. 21

    RE: Scotsman @ 1

    News on BP Just In:

    “…Drop in energy stocks punctures early market rally- AP
    The stock market had another late-day slide, this time because of fears that the Gulf oil spill will threaten BP’s dividend and perhaps land the company in bankruptcy court….”

    Hey, the rich cats sell all their stocks at BP, hide the money….then go bankrupt and stick us tax payers with the cleanup bill…LOL

  22. 22

    RE: pfft @ 18
    Pfft, It’s Worse than You Think

    An excerpt from yesterday’s Yahoo finance report:

    “…But there it is, buried in the fine print of the government’s own data.
    From May 2009 to May 2010, the U.S. “civilian non-institutional population” of prime working age — 20 to 64 — expanded by one and a half million, 180.5 million to 182 million.
    Yet over the same period the official tally of the labor force over age 20 held steady at just 148 million.
    What happened to those extra people?
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t have a full explanation. “We don’t have direct questions (in the survey) addressing that fact,” said a spokeswoman. But many of the disappeared are “unemployed who have decided not to look for work any more,” or who haven’t looked for work recently. Anyone who hasn’t actively sought a job in the last four weeks vanishes from the rolls.
    People dropping out completely are not a bullish sign — unless, perhaps, one is measuring the unemployment figures for the government….”

    32 million recently ghost unemployed Pffft and from the BLS data base too.

  23. 23
    masaba says:

    RE: D. in Ballard @ 10

    That’s exactly what I thought!

  24. 24
    The Tim says:

    Dang. I’m on “vacation” in Idaho and I slept in ’til 10:00 Pacific this morning. Got up and checked my email and I had a message from a producer with 97.3 KIRO who wanted me to talk with the news hosts on their “morning drive” program this morning. When I called her she told me that they just talked with someone from NAR instead. Ack!

    Don’t suppose anyone heard the piece this morning? I couldn’t find it anywhere on the http://MyNorthwest.com website.

  25. 25
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 22:

    RE: pfft @ 18
    Pfft, It’s Worse than You Think

    An excerpt from yesterday’s Yahoo finance report:

    “…But there it is, buried in the fine print of the government’s own data.
    From May 2009 to May 2010, the U.S. “civilian non-institutional population” of prime working age — 20 to 64 — expanded by one and a half million, 180.5 million to 182 million.
    Yet over the same period the official tally of the labor force over age 20 held steady at just 148 million.
    What happened to those extra people?
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t have a full explanation. “We don’t have direct questions (in the survey) addressing that fact,” said a spokeswoman. But many of the disappeared are “unemployed who have decided not to look for work any more,” or who haven’t looked for work recently. Anyone who hasn’t actively sought a job in the last four weeks vanishes from the rolls.
    People dropping out completely are not a bullish sign â�� unless, perhaps, one is measuring the unemployment figures for the government….”

    32 million recently ghost unemployed Pffft and from the BLS data base too.

    why are you just rehashing old data that you’ve told me about numerous times? this is old news. the new news is that the unemployment rate and employment ratios started improving months ago.

    last month you dismissed the biggest job gains in years because the unemployment rate went up. this month the unemployment rate went down and you said not a word. you have no coherent analysis of the economy. you just throw whatever the bad number of the month is out there and hope it sticks.

  26. 26

    RE: The Tim @ 24
    Not to worry. I’m sure the NAR spokesperson said the exact thing you did (NOT)..I didn’t hear it but I don’t need to. ” It should have been a plus sign instead of a minus sign. We’ll see a 22% gain in the next two years. Do you want to be left out? Are you going to let this historic opportunity pass you by?”

  27. 27
    Trigger says:

    BAM – It looks like the global recovery is starting to pick up.

    Dow is over 10K.

    People are cheering. Get those printing machines running!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-surge-on-US-jobs-data-apf-1102965448.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

  28. 28
    see it clearly says:

    And the games continue ….

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Homebuyers may get an extra three months to finish qualifying for federal tax incentives that boosted home sales this spring.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Thursday he wants to give buyers until Sept. 30 to complete their purchases and qualify for tax credits of up to $8,000. Under the current terms, buyers had until April 30 to get a signed sales contract and until June 30 to complete the sale

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lawmakers-consider-home-tax-apf-3706397283.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  29. 29
    Dirty_Renter says:

    Hope everyone saw Squawk Box this morning, as David Walker was guest host. My head was hurting by 6am…too much truth.
    Heck, even Mario Gabelli joined in.
    Yeppers…the bond vigilantes scared Bill Clinton so much that he balanced the budget and started paying off the debt. Still confused why Bush2 thought that was such a bad idea. Looks like Obama’s doubling up on Bush2.

    It’s difficult being bullish on American companies while the a-holes in DC are destroying the very fabric of our society with these mind-numbing deficits & debt.

    Dirty Renter

  30. 30
    pfft says:

    By Dirty_Renter @ 29:

    Hope everyone saw Squawk Box this morning, as David Walker was guest host. My head was hurting by 6am…too much truth.
    Heck, even Mario Gabelli joined in.
    Yeppers…the bond vigilantes scared Bill Clinton so much that he balanced the budget and started paying off the debt. Still confused why Bush2 thought that was such a bad idea. Looks like Obama’s doubling up on Bush2.

    It’s difficult being bullish on American companies while the a-holes in DC are destroying the very fabric of our society with these mind-numbing deficits & debt.

    Dirty Renter

    what would you rather have, a job or the approval of the bond vigilantes.? unemployment is at 10%. cutting back now would cause an austerity spiral. read the krugman link above.

    the bond vigilantes are saying the deficits are not a problem. a lot of people have a problem with that because they’ve staked their reputation, portfolio and ego on hyper-inflation and such. not to mention their client’s money.

  31. 31
    pfft says:

    too bad we don’t have scotsman to explain what hundreds of points up on the day means. he seems to love commenting on those down days. hopefully he gets back to us soon!

  32. 32
    Scotsman says:

    Well it’s clear when I go away this blog turns into a liberal drivel/drool fest. Please be sure to clean up.

    The weather’s beautiful here in Palo Alto this afternoon, seventy something degrees with a nice breeze. Still raining up north? And hey, my daughter hasn’t packed her computer yet so here I am. I know you really did miss me!

    I’m off to the coast and gone for good this time. Try not to delude yourselve too deeply, and remember you can always head over to Hotair.com for a little reality if you feel the need. Cheers!

  33. 33
    David McManus says:

    Here it comes. Homebuyer tax credit part trois!

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/10/real_estate/housing_credit_extension/index.htm

  34. 34
    S-Crow says:

    RE: David McManus @ 33 – It not clear that buyers still have to be under contract by the April 30th deadline or if they are extending only the closing date by the September date proposed (two entirely different issues). If they are extending the closing date only, there will be no incentive to buyers during the next quarter.

    My guess is that the pending sales data is hitting Senators fax machines. I’ve been thinking for quite a while that with one eye you have to look at the market for what it presents and the other eye trained on what .gov will do to keep the market moving along (incentives) which Bears will have to take into consideration if they are to believe that we are going to continue down with another 15-20% drop in Seattle-Puget Sound area housing prices from peak 2007 levels.

  35. 35
    Dirty_Renter says:

    RE: pfft @ 30

    hahaha pfft – just give me a fountain pen full of ink and the US budget.
    1) Dirty Renter to the JCOS – Exactly why is our defense spending greater than the next 15 countries combined? Hmmm…perhaps a balanced budget with no debt would protect our nation better than that new super-duper-ray-gun?
    2) All entitlements and federal pensions will be cut 20% until the federal debt is erased and the current budget is balanced. Yep, we’re talking Pay-Go minus 20%. I lost 5 businesses in New Orleans in the fall of 2005 and ate mac & cheese for 3 years. As far as Medicare & Medicaid, I receive hate mail when I make my views publically known.
    3) POTUS, SCOTUS, Senate & House salaries and bennies cut 50%.
    4) All federal employee salaries and bennies cut 20%.
    Do you need more, Pfft? I have lots more.
    IT’S THE NEW NORMAL.
    VOTE FOR ME.
    Dirty Renter

  36. 36
    Pegasus says:

    Pfft @ 30
    Several times in the past few weeks you have honestly admitted you do not understand the bond market. Now you are the genius kid wonder proclaiming wisdom about the bond market and the bond market vigilantes today and what they are telling us. What’s today’s flavor? Kool-Aid should create a Krugman flavor for the administration’s ho. They can call it Sky High Berry that tastes like gulf oil. Drink up fool.

  37. 37
    Pegasus says:

    S-Crow @ 34
    No matter how they paint it there will be another taxpayer funded program for home buyers before the election in November. You do realize how strong the real estate including builders lobbyists are? Try promoting an amendment to stop the income tax deduction for home mortgage and property taxes and see how long you get to live a happy life.

  38. 38

    RE: Scotsman @ 32
    I do miss you, Scotsman. And I’ll be be sure to continue my liberal drooling whether you’re here or not.

  39. 39
    pfft says:

    By Trigger @ 27:

    BAM – It looks like the global recovery is starting to pick up.

    Dow is over 10K.

    People are cheering. Get those printing machines running!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-surge-on-US-jobs-data-apf-1102965448.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

    I thought there was too much debt?

  40. 40
    pfft says:

    By Pegasus @ 36:

    Pfft @ 30
    Several times in the past few weeks you have honestly admitted you do not understand the bond market. Now you are the genius kid wonder proclaiming wisdom about the bond market and the bond market vigilantes today and what they are telling us. What’s today’s flavor? Kool-Aid should create a Krugman flavor for the administration’s ho. They can call it Sky High Berry that tastes like gulf oil. Drink up fool.

    you misunderstood me. I thought interest rates would go much higher and I never believed that interest rates would go so low. they are still pretty low. I envisioned stock prices falling because bonds were tanking. the opposite happened during the crisis of 2008. therefore I came to the conclusion that I wouldn’t fight the market. I don’t know what is going on. I now listen to what the bond market is doing because I don’t know what’s going on. it’s the logical thing to do when you’re wrong.

    when I’m wrong I change my mind, what do you do sir?

  41. 41
    pfft says:

    “They can call it Sky High Berry that tastes like gulf oil. Drink up fool.”

    was that joke everything you thought it would be when you typed it up? that’s pretty good. got any more good cracks like that shakespeare?

  42. 42
    pfft says:

    By Dirty_Renter @ 35:

    RE: pfft @ 30

    hahaha pfft – just give me a fountain pen full of ink and the US budget.
    1) Dirty Renter to the JCOS – Exactly why is our defense spending greater than the next 15 countries combined? Hmmm…perhaps a balanced budget with no debt would protect our nation better than that new super-duper-ray-gun?
    2) All entitlements and federal pensions will be cut 20% until the federal debt is erased and the current budget is balanced. Yep, we’re talking Pay-Go minus 20%. I lost 5 businesses in New Orleans in the fall of 2005 and ate mac & cheese for 3 years. As far as Medicare & Medicaid, I receive hate mail when I make my views publically known.
    3) POTUS, SCOTUS, Senate & House salaries and bennies cut 50%.
    4) All federal employee salaries and bennies cut 20%.
    Do you need more, Pfft? I have lots more.
    IT’S THE NEW NORMAL.
    VOTE FOR ME.
    Dirty Renter

    sorry about your businesses. that’s tough. your plans thought means the loss of jobs, GDP and we’ll get an austerity spiral. that means when you cut government spending you’ll get slower growth. that means less tax revenue which means more cuts and even lesser tax revenue. the austerity spiral accomplishes the exact opposite of it’s intent. that is probably what you want though. starve the beast.

    “All entitlements and federal pensions will be cut 20% until the federal debt is erased and the current budget is balanced.”

    I bet you were on of those 200 years of contract law! people when GM was going into bankruptcy.

  43. 43
    pfft says:

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 38:

    RE: Scotsman @ 32
    I do miss you, Scotsman. And I’ll be be sure to continue my liberal drooling whether you’re here or not.

    I already miss scotsman’s denial of climate change in the face of overwhelming evidence.

    NASA: Easily the hottest spring — and Jan-May — in temperature record
    Plus another record 12-month global temperature
    June 10, 2010
    http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/10/nasa-hottest-spring-on-record/

    it should be noted that we have lots of other data that is saying the same thing. the deniers made a big deal about the snow we had in Feb of this year. they didn’t make make a big deal about the lack of snow during the same time at the winter olympics. the denier have a lot less data than the scientists do.

  44. 44
    patient says:

    By Pegasus @ 37:

    S-Crow @ 34
    No matter how they paint it there will be another taxpayer funded program for home buyers before the election in November. You do realize how strong the real estate including builders lobbyists are? Try promoting an amendment to stop the income tax deduction for home mortgage and property taxes and see how long you get to live a happy life.

    It will be interresting to follow for sure. Personally I’m not so sure about another program, though I will not be surprised if one comes along. However when talking to people and reading comments on the internet I get the feeling that the way to get elected is not by more stimulus. The big masses seems mainly upset with the growing debt and the spending. Worst is probably that people feel that Washington do not listen. The people made themselves heard loud and clear against TARP, against Bernanke, against healthcare reform and was ignored. I have a feeling that even the most disconnected politician that is up for election has picked up on at least one of these issues. Advocating more spending even if it helps you with the big wigs at NAR, NAHB and the financial institutions might not be the best way to get people to vote for you. We’ll see.

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.